The 2025 Wolves Off Season

[younggunsmn]

This is why I disagreed when many thought Connelly “stole” Dillingham with a 2031 unprotected 1st, plus a top one protected 2030 swap. There is a lot of risk in how much a team can change its course over a large number of years.

So far, all the picks we sent Utah haven’t hurt us too bad, and I think adding Gobert changed the course of the franchise, and helped Ant grow in winning situations. However, we don’t know if we will continue to be a winning team for six full years, and that swap in five looks more perilous too since the Spurs have Wemby.

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

Donte Divencenzo will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are slated to become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2029.
Rob Dillingham and TJ Shannon are also slated to be restricted free agents in the summer of 2028.

Rudy Gobert will be 38 years old and Julius Randle will turn 35 years old in 2029.
Basically the only player still under contract to be here for the 2029-2030 season is Naz Reid.

A lot can change in 4 years but there is incredibly more downside risk on the 2030 pickswap and 2031 unprotected 1st than there was on any of the picks we traded Utah for Gobert.
The 2030 pickswap alone probably has more trade value than any of the picks we still owe Utah just because it's out beyond Ant's contract.

Utah completely crapping the bed with their personnel moves post Gobert trade doesn't make it a better trade on our end outside of making the 2026 pickswap less of a risk.

I still think it was a massive overpay and poor use of assets but it isn't ever going to cripple the franchise.

At least we're not Sacramento and didn't turn Fox and Haliburton into a sub 500 team.
If things ever go sour with Ant though, the Dillingham trade could lead to 5+ years in the wilderness again.
Pretty smart trade by San Antonio.
Already used the 2031 pick as the centerpiece to acquire DeAaron Fox, who would have been a fantastic player to pair Ant with if TC hadn't decided to go the route of having a 90+ million frontcourt rotation.
Does that pairing win more games? Who knows. Roads not taken.

[Klomp]

The off season continues rolling along and the Wolves continue to do.... NOTHING. I'm not saying it's good or bad. It is what it is.

I'm assuming they offered Brogdon a one year vet min deal, and he is shopping to see if he can get a better offer from another team.

I think this is the biggest reason why there just hasn't been movement. Not just about Brogdon, but basically anyone out there.

We have our targets. I think the players have a good idea of who most of their options are too. But the players are waiting to see if anything else comes available. Both in money and roles.

I'd also guess that people see the PG room here as crowded, without many minutes available this season. Tyus Jones went to Phoenix last year because he saw a path to a starting role. Last year, Monte Morris thought he had a backup role there too even before Jones signed. I think anyone looking here expects to be riding the bench in a Joe Ingles role, which isn't a spot to jump at in July.

I actually wonder if they would go back to either Monte Morris or Shake Milton for the 14th spot, if either are open to it. Otherwise, it might just end up being an upside swing or even just Bones Hyland.

[Klomp]

This is why I disagreed when many thought Connelly “stole” Dillingham with a 2031 unprotected 1st, plus a top one protected 2030 swap. There is a lot of risk in how much a team can change its course over a large number of years.

So far, all the picks we sent Utah haven’t hurt us too bad, and I think adding Gobert changed the course of the franchise, and helped Ant grow in winning situations. However, we don’t know if we will continue to be a winning team for six full years, and that swap in five looks more perilous too since the Spurs have Wemby.

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

Donte Divencenzo will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are slated to become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2029.
Rob Dillingham and TJ Shannon are also slated to be restricted free agents in the summer of 2028.

Rudy Gobert will be 38 years old and Julius Randle will turn 35 years old in 2029.
Basically the only player still under contract to be here for the 2029-2030 season is Naz Reid.

A lot can change in 4 years but there is incredibly more downside risk on the 2030 pickswap and 2031 unprotected 1st than there was on any of the picks we traded Utah for Gobert.
The 2030 pickswap alone probably has more trade value than any of the picks we still owe Utah just because it's out beyond Ant's contract.

Utah completely crapping the bed with their personnel moves post Gobert trade doesn't make it a better trade on our end outside of making the 2026 pickswap less of a risk.

I still think it was a massive overpay and poor use of assets but it isn't ever going to cripple the franchise.

At least we're not Sacramento and didn't turn Fox and Haliburton into a sub 500 team.
If things ever go sour with Ant though, the Dillingham trade could lead to 5+ years in the wilderness again.
Pretty smart trade by San Antonio.
Already used the 2031 pick as the centerpiece to acquire DeAaron Fox, who would have been a fantastic player to pair Ant with if TC hadn't decided to go the route of having a 90+ million frontcourt rotation.
Does that pairing win more games? Who knows. Roads not taken.

A lot of ifs....I think those are all things that factored into the equation, but they still felt like it was worth it. I don't think they were turning a blind eye to any of it.

[Biff Cooper]

The off season continues rolling along and the Wolves continue to do.... NOTHING. I'm not saying it's good or bad. It is what it is.

I'm assuming they offered Brogdon a one year vet min deal, and he is shopping to see if he can get a better offer from another team.

I think this is the biggest reason why there just hasn't been movement. Not just about Brogdon, but basically anyone out there.

We have our targets. I think the players have a good idea of who most of their options are too. But the players are waiting to see if anything else comes available. Both in money and roles.

I'd also guess that people see the PG room here as crowded, without many minutes available this season. Tyus Jones went to Phoenix last year because he saw a path to a starting role. Last year, Monte Morris thought he had a backup role there too even before Jones signed. I think anyone looking here expects to be riding the bench in a Joe Ingles role, which isn't a spot to jump at in July.

I actually wonder if they would go back to either Monte Morris or Shake Milton for the 14th spot, if either are open to it. Otherwise, it might just end up being an upside swing or even just Bones Hyland.

Yeah - same thing for Tristen Newton too with his 2-way offer. We offered the QO on his 2-way RFA contract, but he is also holding off on signing to see if he can swing a better deal elsewhere.

[minimus]

I still don't understand why Monte Morris failed here. Sure, he was out of shape in MIN, sure he didn't have enough time to get familiar with team, he was also dealing with small injuries. But usually TC is good at keeping good relationship with his players, but with Morris whole situation looked weird. He left MIN to play for minimum in PHO?

If there is no bad memories between him and MIN and he is healthy, I'd give him that vetmin, and use as emergency backup PG when Conley is not playing. In theory this year in MIN he might have much more opportunities to redeem himself: no NAW, no McLaughlin, Conley is declining.

[winforlose]

I still don't understand why Monte Morris failed here. Sure, he was out of shape in MIN, sure he didn't have enough time to get familiar with team, he was also dealing with small injuries. But usually TC is good at keeping good relationship with his players, but with Morris whole situation looked weird. He left MIN to play for minimum in PHO?

If there is no bad memories between him and MIN and he is healthy, I'd give him that vetmin, and use as emergency backup PG when Conley is not playing. In theory this year in MIN he might have much more opportunities to redeem himself: no NAW, no McLaughlin, Conley is declining.

I would rather have Monte than Malcom. I think the issue is we would need to commit to him having at least 18 MPG and I don’t know that we will make that promise with Dilly needing minutes.

[BlacJacMac]

I still don't understand why Monte Morris failed here. Sure, he was out of shape in MIN, sure he didn't have enough time to get familiar with team, he was also dealing with small injuries. But usually TC is good at keeping good relationship with his players, but with Morris whole situation looked weird. He left MIN to play for minimum in PHO?

If there is no bad memories between him and MIN and he is healthy, I'd give him that vetmin, and use as emergency backup PG when Conley is not playing. In theory this year in MIN he might have much more opportunities to redeem himself: no NAW, no McLaughlin, Conley is declining.

He knew he was going to be behind Conley and Dilly here. When he signed with Phoenix, they had no one at PG.

[shrink]

I still don't understand why Monte Morris failed here. Sure, he was out of shape in MIN, sure he didn't have enough time to get familiar with team, he was also dealing with small injuries. But usually TC is good at keeping good relationship with his players, but with Morris whole situation looked weird. He left MIN to play for minimum in PHO?

If there is no bad memories between him and MIN and he is healthy, I'd give him that vetmin, and use as emergency backup PG when Conley is not playing. In theory this year in MIN he might have much more opportunities to redeem himself: no NAW, no McLaughlin, Conley is declining.

He knew he was going to be behind Conley and Dilly here. When he signed with Phoenix, they had no one at PG.

Yes, that’s the reason.

We traded for him to have a back up for Conley, and perhaps an eventual, low-cost successor as Mike aged out. Monte plays a similar, low-turnover, complimentary role. He didn’t play well, but I thought by gaining his Bird rights in the trade, he would be PG2.

And that might have been the plan, had TC not made the trade for Dilly, and then tell everyone how Rob was going to get “thrown into the deep end of the pool,” and get lots of minutes right away. Those were Monte’s minutes, so he signed with PHX on the minimum, hoping to be their starter, and get paid on his next contract. Unfortunately for him, Tyus Jones had the same idea, and PHX acquired him to play in front of Monte. And of course, if he stayed, even without the Dillingham trade, the KAT deal bringing in DiVincenzo would probably have also cost him his opportunity.

[shrink]

This is why I disagreed when many thought Connelly “stole” Dillingham with a 2031 unprotected 1st, plus a top one protected 2030 swap. There is a lot of risk in how much a team can change its course over a large number of years.

So far, all the picks we sent Utah haven’t hurt us too bad, and I think adding Gobert changed the course of the franchise, and helped Ant grow in winning situations. However, we don’t know if we will continue to be a winning team for six full years, and that swap in five looks more perilous too since the Spurs have Wemby.

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

In today’s NBA, it is impossible to always predict how successful a team will be over the next season, let alone five or six years ahead. A team can have a player under contract, and they can always be hurt or traded, and the direction of teams constantly vacillate. Any pick three years away is a crapshoot to me.

[winforlose]

I still don't understand why Monte Morris failed here. Sure, he was out of shape in MIN, sure he didn't have enough time to get familiar with team, he was also dealing with small injuries. But usually TC is good at keeping good relationship with his players, but with Morris whole situation looked weird. He left MIN to play for minimum in PHO?

If there is no bad memories between him and MIN and he is healthy, I'd give him that vetmin, and use as emergency backup PG when Conley is not playing. In theory this year in MIN he might have much more opportunities to redeem himself: no NAW, no McLaughlin, Conley is declining.

He knew he was going to be behind Conley and Dilly here. When he signed with Phoenix, they had no one at PG.

100%, Tyus really F***ed Monte signing a little later.

[Klomp]

This is why I disagreed when many thought Connelly “stole” Dillingham with a 2031 unprotected 1st, plus a top one protected 2030 swap. There is a lot of risk in how much a team can change its course over a large number of years.

So far, all the picks we sent Utah haven’t hurt us too bad, and I think adding Gobert changed the course of the franchise, and helped Ant grow in winning situations. However, we don’t know if we will continue to be a winning team for six full years, and that swap in five looks more perilous too since the Spurs have Wemby.

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

In today’s NBA, it is impossible to always predict how successful a team will be over the next season, let alone five or six years ahead. A team can have a player under contract, and they can always be hurt or traded, and the direction of teams constantly vacillate. Any pick three years away is a crapshoot to me.

Sure, but I think the most important thing to remember is that as long as Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are the cornerstones of the franchise, this will not be a team that just decides to tank. While it doesn't guarantee a specific level of success, it gives a baseline where the team feels it will be for a 5-year period at a minimum right now.

The front office has faith in the abilities of its leaders and also has a confidence that they will put the right pieces around those leaders. Sure, a worst-case scenario can happen, but just because something has risk doesn't mean it's a bad decision automatically.

[KGdaBom]

This is why I disagreed when many thought Connelly “stole” Dillingham with a 2031 unprotected 1st, plus a top one protected 2030 swap. There is a lot of risk in how much a team can change its course over a large number of years.

So far, all the picks we sent Utah haven’t hurt us too bad, and I think adding Gobert changed the course of the franchise, and helped Ant grow in winning situations. However, we don’t know if we will continue to be a winning team for six full years, and that swap in five looks more perilous too since the Spurs have Wemby.

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

A pick at 33 this year is worth a pick at about 24 next year is kind of typical. We only know for sure we gave up one FRP. A lot of us will be dead before it conveys. Seriously the 8th pick in the draft is worth an unprotected and a swap was it 6-7 years down the road. Sure in 5 or 6 years I'll be mildly bummed that we don't have the pick. If we invested it wisely we will be reaping the benefits of that pick the entire time. If we don't it had nothing to do with the trade it was just bad use of the pick.

[KGdaBom]

This is why I disagreed when many thought Connelly “stole” Dillingham with a 2031 unprotected 1st, plus a top one protected 2030 swap. There is a lot of risk in how much a team can change its course over a large number of years.

So far, all the picks we sent Utah haven’t hurt us too bad, and I think adding Gobert changed the course of the franchise, and helped Ant grow in winning situations. However, we don’t know if we will continue to be a winning team for six full years, and that swap in five looks more perilous too since the Spurs have Wemby.

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

Donte Divencenzo will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are slated to become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2029.
Rob Dillingham and TJ Shannon are also slated to be restricted free agents in the summer of 2028.

Rudy Gobert will be 38 years old and Julius Randle will turn 35 years old in 2029.
Basically the only player still under contract to be here for the 2029-2030 season is Naz Reid.

A lot can change in 4 years but there is incredibly more downside risk on the 2030 pickswap and 2031 unprotected 1st than there was on any of the picks we traded Utah for Gobert.
The 2030 pickswap alone probably has more trade value than any of the picks we still owe Utah just because it's out beyond Ant's contract.

Utah completely crapping the bed with their personnel moves post Gobert trade doesn't make it a better trade on our end outside of making the 2026 pickswap less of a risk.

I still think it was a massive overpay and poor use of assets but it isn't ever going to cripple the franchise.

At least we're not Sacramento and didn't turn Fox and Haliburton into a sub 500 team.
If things ever go sour with Ant though, the Dillingham trade could lead to 5+ years in the wilderness again.
Pretty smart trade by San Antonio.
Already used the 2031 pick as the centerpiece to acquire DeAaron Fox, who would have been a fantastic player to pair Ant with if TC hadn't decided to go the route of having a 90+ million frontcourt rotation.
Does that pairing win more games? Who knows. Roads not taken.

Most teams don't give a rat's ass about picks and swaps 7 years down the road. They are interested in making their team as good as possible as quickly as possible.

[shrink]

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

In today’s NBA, it is impossible to always predict how successful a team will be over the next season, let alone five or six years ahead. A team can have a player under contract, and they can always be hurt or traded, and the direction of teams constantly vacillate. Any pick three years away is a crapshoot to me.

Sure, but I think the most important thing to remember is that as long as Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are the cornerstones of the franchise, this will not be a team that just decides to tank. While it doesn't guarantee a specific level of success, it gives a baseline where the team feels it will be for a 5-year period at a minimum right now.

Sure, like BRK had a safe baseline with locked up Durant, Kyrie and Harden, or the Clippers had a baseline with all their stars, or the Grizzlies with Morant and JJJ - better players than we have. I learned this lesson from the 2008 Trailblazers, who had OKC-levels of young talent, and were supposed to be great for the next five years.

In the cyclic NBA, three years is a lifetime, and apron rules are only going to reinforce that cycle. Windows are brief, and success is fleeting. I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance that one of our three players is gone within three years.

[shrink]

Well now we're down to 5 years left, and for four of the years we have Ant/Jaden/Naz locked up as our core plus Rudy/Julius/Rob/TJ for three. Sure, that leaves one year unaccounted for at the end, but unless the bottom falls completely out (classic Minnesota sports fatalism), I just don't see worrying about the risk as something to waste time doing. Sure, it gets factored into the equation, but I think dwelling on that is the only time where the "downside" of the trade comes into play.

Donte Divencenzo will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are slated to become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2029.
Rob Dillingham and TJ Shannon are also slated to be restricted free agents in the summer of 2028.

Rudy Gobert will be 38 years old and Julius Randle will turn 35 years old in 2029.
Basically the only player still under contract to be here for the 2029-2030 season is Naz Reid.

A lot can change in 4 years but there is incredibly more downside risk on the 2030 pickswap and 2031 unprotected 1st than there was on any of the picks we traded Utah for Gobert.
The 2030 pickswap alone probably has more trade value than any of the picks we still owe Utah just because it's out beyond Ant's contract.

Utah completely crapping the bed with their personnel moves post Gobert trade doesn't make it a better trade on our end outside of making the 2026 pickswap less of a risk.

I still think it was a massive overpay and poor use of assets but it isn't ever going to cripple the franchise.

At least we're not Sacramento and didn't turn Fox and Haliburton into a sub 500 team.
If things ever go sour with Ant though, the Dillingham trade could lead to 5+ years in the wilderness again.
Pretty smart trade by San Antonio.
Already used the 2031 pick as the centerpiece to acquire DeAaron Fox, who would have been a fantastic player to pair Ant with if TC hadn't decided to go the route of having a 90+ million frontcourt rotation.
Does that pairing win more games? Who knows. Roads not taken.

Most teams don't give a rat's ass about picks and swaps 7 years down the road. They are interested in making their team as good as possible as quickly as possible.

You’re right, but I imagine that is more about the brief tenures of the GM position, rather than the actual value (or risk of great loss) of distant picks. GMs need to win to keep their jobs - even GMs that come in for rebuilds lose their jobs if there isn’t progress. Many GMs don’t last more than 3-4 years, and when those picks come due, they are the next guy’s problem.

[KGdaBom]

In today’s NBA, it is impossible to always predict how successful a team will be over the next season, let alone five or six years ahead. A team can have a player under contract, and they can always be hurt or traded, and the direction of teams constantly vacillate. Any pick three years away is a crapshoot to me.

Sure, but I think the most important thing to remember is that as long as Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are the cornerstones of the franchise, this will not be a team that just decides to tank. While it doesn't guarantee a specific level of success, it gives a baseline where the team feels it will be for a 5-year period at a minimum right now.

Sure, like BRK had a safe baseline with locked up Durant, Kyrie and Harden, or the Clippers had a baseline with all their stars, or the Grizzlies with Morant and JJJ - better players than we have. I learned this lesson from the 2008 Trailblazers, who had OKC-levels of young talent, and were supposed to be great for the next five years.

In the cyclic NBA, three years is a lifetime, and apron rules are only going to reinforce that cycle. Windows are brief, and success is fleeting. I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance that one of our three players is gone within three years.

I'll go on record that it's not going to happen, unless we make a trade for equal or greater value.

[KGdaBom]

Donte Divencenzo will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2027

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are slated to become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2029.
Rob Dillingham and TJ Shannon are also slated to be restricted free agents in the summer of 2028.

Rudy Gobert will be 38 years old and Julius Randle will turn 35 years old in 2029.
Basically the only player still under contract to be here for the 2029-2030 season is Naz Reid.

A lot can change in 4 years but there is incredibly more downside risk on the 2030 pickswap and 2031 unprotected 1st than there was on any of the picks we traded Utah for Gobert.
The 2030 pickswap alone probably has more trade value than any of the picks we still owe Utah just because it's out beyond Ant's contract.

Utah completely crapping the bed with their personnel moves post Gobert trade doesn't make it a better trade on our end outside of making the 2026 pickswap less of a risk.

I still think it was a massive overpay and poor use of assets but it isn't ever going to cripple the franchise.

At least we're not Sacramento and didn't turn Fox and Haliburton into a sub 500 team.
If things ever go sour with Ant though, the Dillingham trade could lead to 5+ years in the wilderness again.
Pretty smart trade by San Antonio.
Already used the 2031 pick as the centerpiece to acquire DeAaron Fox, who would have been a fantastic player to pair Ant with if TC hadn't decided to go the route of having a 90+ million frontcourt rotation.
Does that pairing win more games? Who knows. Roads not taken.

Most teams don't give a rat's ass about picks and swaps 7 years down the road. They are interested in making their team as good as possible as quickly as possible.

You’re right, but I imagine that is more about the brief tenures of the GM position, rather than the actual value (or risk of great loss) of distant picks. GMs need to win to keep their jobs - even GMs that come in for rebuilds lose their jobs if there isn’t progress. Many GMs don’t last more than 3-4 years, and when those picks come due, they are the next guy’s problem.

A pick 100 years away will theoretically have an equal value to the same pick this year. But nobody cares. Teams want to win NOW or very soon. The further out the pick the less valuable it is now.

[Klomp]

In today’s NBA, it is impossible to always predict how successful a team will be over the next season, let alone five or six years ahead. A team can have a player under contract, and they can always be hurt or traded, and the direction of teams constantly vacillate. Any pick three years away is a crapshoot to me.

Sure, but I think the most important thing to remember is that as long as Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are the cornerstones of the franchise, this will not be a team that just decides to tank. While it doesn't guarantee a specific level of success, it gives a baseline where the team feels it will be for a 5-year period at a minimum right now.

Sure, like BRK had a safe baseline with locked up Durant, Kyrie and Harden, or the Clippers had a baseline with all their stars, or the Grizzlies with Morant and JJJ - better players than we have. I learned this lesson from the 2008 Trailblazers, who had OKC-levels of young talent, and were supposed to be great for the next five years.

In the cyclic NBA, three years is a lifetime, and apron rules are only going to reinforce that cycle. Windows are brief, and success is fleeting. I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance that one of our three players is gone within three years.

Sure, a freak injury like Brandon Roy could possibly happen. But you could say the same about any team in the league. Why run your life through a lens of fatalism?

And I would also point out that those Blazers still made the playoffs in 11 of the next 13 seasons after 2008, a long stretch of sustained success which is what Connelly is building towards. The worry about a pick swap isn't if you might have to give up pick 17 or 18. The fear comes on the chance that it is 5 or 6 going into the lottery. I just don't see that happening unless major catastrophic tragedy takes place.

It's not just about those three at the top. You are right that they aren't the most talented collection of talent in a three-person group. But I'd argue that's actually what you want from a core group. You still have Gobert, Randle and DiVincenzo that you can use or you can swap out for other pieces. You still have Shannon, Dillingham, Clark and Beringer as young development pieces with good upside on cheap contracts right now. Those are how you continue work around and within the constraints that the second apron presents. It's no longer about putting together the most talented players at the top of the roster. It's about putting together a cohesive group that can be tweaked and tinkered with over time to keep the franchise competitive year in and year out.

[Klomp]

In the cyclic NBA, three years is a lifetime, and apron rules are only going to reinforce that cycle. Windows are brief, and success is fleeting. I would say there is a better than 50/50 chance that one of our three players is gone within three years.

That's why the way Connelly built this was so important. The whole two cycles dynamic that everyone has been so frustrated with him about for years is how I think we can outlast the cap cycle issue.

This first cycle was about guys like Gobert, Towns and Randle. You could argue it's two different cycles, but I believe that the Gobert piece is what links them. This cycle is about a baseline of success, giving Ant a continued taste of the playoffs.

Now everyone thought that choosing this cycle would be to the detriment of the franchise's future, likely losing Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and all other future assets along the way. But Connelly has shown that he has been able to walk that tightrope. So when the Gobert-plus cycle has fully closed, the franchise doesn't have to wait around for the next cycle because Edwards, McDaniels and Reid are already waiting in the wings plus the other young pieces that have already been accumulated and developing.

[minimus]

Would you offer min contract to Bones Hyland?