VanWest82 wrote:Except, those numbers don't show that. They show shots, assists, turnovers when they guarded each other. Did you also track possessions? If so, that would give us a better idea as at least we could do some rough calculations, or if you tracked all the possessions we'd know for sure.
I did not track possessions unfortunately, I wasn't focused on Shaq vs Duncan matchup when I did the tracking - I just focused on Duncan in general. It's true that possessions would give us a clearer picture, but I don't think the numbers I provided are useless.
I recall Rose guarded Shaq quite a bit and so did Robinson in the games he played. Duncan did too, and I'll take your word that he did so more than in the reverse (except game 5). But in the possessions you did list, it looks like Shaq did better vs. Duncan than Duncan did vs. Shaq.
You are free to rewatch the games. Here is game 1 for example:
Halfcourt possessions only with Duncan and Shaq on the floor, only looking at players who start on Shaq:
Spoiler:
I don't have the time to do it for all games, but in these 61 possessions Duncan was primarly on Shaq for 34 of them. Actually, Mark Bryant defended Shaq the most in the 1st half (but he didn't play much in the 2nd half), Rose almost didn't guard Shaq.
Granted, this is the game (along with G2) when Duncan defended Shaq the most, but you can't deny that he played straight on him for the majority of the game - including almost the whole 2nd half. Did Shaq face a lot of help defense in these possessions? In most cases, yeah - but that's always the case when you are the best player on the team.
RE 00 Shaq > 02 Shaq:
1. 50 lbs
2. Shaq wasn't dealing with numerous debilitating injuries in 2000 playoffs; see games played, surgery after the season, etc.
These two are definitely true, although I don't think 50 lbs is the reality. Shaq played at ~340 lbs in 2000, all these talks about him being 400 lbs throughout the season are clear exaggarations. I have seen 375 lbs for 2002 often and I think that's much more reasonable.
3. DPOY voting (#2 overall in 2000 vs. not a finalist in 2002); eye test alone 2000 Shaq was a vastly superior defender if you value being able to move.
I'd say that Shaq moved a lot better in 2000, but I don't know how much it helped him on defense. He was still quite slow, lumbering and inactive in 2000.
4. contest vs. Spurs in outside years. Although they didn't meet in 2000, Lakers and Spurs did square off in 2001 and 2003 (where Shaq was arguably even more diminished), and Shaq did much better vs. Spurs both of those years despite Robinson playing a larger role.
We also have 1999 when Shaq struggled again and it was closer to 2000 than 2003 for example.
Even in 02, Spurs best defense vs. Shaq was arguably Rose on Shaq with Duncan helping.
I don't think so, Duncan did much better job at keeping Shaq away from establishing deep positions and securing offensive rebounds - these two things are the most important against Shaq.
Part of the reason I keep bringing up Rose is because he did a decent job despite giving up so much size. I feel like that's getting lost here. Surely you must have seen that having re-watched the series.
He definitely did admirable job for such a small guy, but he spent less time on him than Duncan, Bryant or Robinson. People remember plays when someone so overmatched does a nice job, but it didn't happen often and it wasn't a good strategy for long stretches.
In any event, it sounds like you agree with me at least on the 00 >> 02 Shaq point, and I'd say we have more than enough evidence that the delta there is > than whatever 02 TD > 02 Shaq delta, certainly in the playoffs, though again I'd argue the entire seasons as well.
I agree with 2000 Shaq > 2002 Shaq, but the gap between Duncan and Shaq in 2002 is also quite massive, so I am not sure if I'd agree with the latter.
Anyway, I don't say that Duncan definitely peaked higher than Shaq, I just don't think it's such a slam dunk and I don't agree that 2002 is a good argument for Shaq.
