Chicago bulls : What is the plan?

[dpucane]

I'm not trying to be a doom and gloomer with this comment, but since the end of the Jordan era the plan has always been to remain within the top 5 in attendance and merchandise sales. This is usually accomplished with a roughly .500 record and play-in or late seed playoff appearance. It doesn't matter who's running the FO, this is and always has been the primary goal.

This is a business after all and the way the Reinsdorfs and co. run this organization is optimized to maximize profits above everything else, even winning.

What they don't seem to realize is investing in winning will pay for itself in the long run; look at how profitable we are still coasting off the Jordan era despite having maybe 2 notable seasons since that era ended. Without all that winning we did in the 90s we wouldn't be the money printing machine we are now.

Don't take my word for it. Jerry Reinsdorf has infamously made comments like "strive for 2nd place" and has told his family to sell the White Sox and keep the Bulls after his passing due to the Sox being his passion and the Bulls being a business.

Or just look at how roster management is handled; this organization has paid the luxury tax once in its entire existence and has never been a big player in major free agency pursuits.

These are not the words and actions of anyone who is serious about winning.

The goal is to continue lining the Reinsdorfs and minority owners pockets. How we get there and how many games we win in pursuit of that goal is just the window dressing.

As Bulls fans we all understand the sometimes-frustrating financial restrictions we have to deal with. But I do believe you are overstating some things.

Paxson, I think 3 different times, blew up the team lost-dynasty to get worse and he wanted to do it a 4th time after the Rose injury but was reportedly shot down by Gar and Michael.

Moreover, AK has now in two different seasons publicly stated he had the “green light” to completely blow it up and rebuild, but didn’t want to.

The Bulls have an established record of being willing to get bad to get good. Just not under AK.

Yeah but the thing is, we were still at or near the top in attendance and merchandise sales even during those blow ups. As long as we're still highly profitable, the people at the top don't care what's happening with the on-court product. And that's where the problem lies.

I believe the only time we saw a notable decrease in attendance, sales, etc. was during the end of the GarPax era with the whole ASG and fire GarPax billboard fiasco. What happened? Ownership fired the FO and brought in new people and guess what, those attendance and sales numbers are right back where they need to be.

My point is, what happens on the court is irrelevant as long as they're making money. Winning or losing doesn't really matter that much to those in charge.

To be clear, John Paxson was not fired. He quit. Do not give Little Michael credit for that.

[sco]

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2912/eastern-conference-summer-league-notes

On a somewhat quiet offseason: “I won’t say it was by design. But we knew we weren’t likely to make any blockbuster moves either. But we’re happy with what we did and we’re still actively looking at other options too,” a Bulls front office executive said.

On Josh Giddey: “We want to get a deal done with Josh. He’s as important of a player as we have. We see him as a foundational player for us. I hope we can find a deal that makes sense for us and him and that we’ll be together for a long time,” a Bulls front office executive said.

On Matas Buzelis: “He’s going to be really, really good. He wants it so damn bad. This kid pushes himself so hard. And you see that on the floor too. But it’s the quiet moments when you see him work. He’s wildly intense about getting better and improving,” a Bulls coach said.

On the roster as a whole: “Last year, we played pretty fast. I think we can play even faster next season. Our roster is built for it. And you saw with Indiana and OKC in the Finals, that playing with pace is so important. We’re going to get after it on defense, force turnovers and then get out and run. That suits Matas (Buzelis) and Noa (Essengue) as our young forwards and all of our guards really well. We also think that Isaac (Okoro) will benefit in a more up-tempo style too. There’s untapped potential there,” a Bulls coach said.

On Coby White: “The contract is what it is. We probably can’t extend him, because the rules don’t allow for us to pay him enough,” a Bulls front office executive said. “But we want Coby to be a Bull for a long time. He knows how we feel about him.”

[League Circles]

Do the Bulls have a purpose? Is there a plan? Who is the leader of this group? Does management have an agenda, or do they care about the team culture? Does anyone have an answer? I am confused.

Like the other NBA teams, the Bulls want to win games and championships

Obviously yes. Why wouldn't they? It's the way to have the most fun and make the most money.

[DuckIII]

Good post.

I will say this. The Bulls seem to be stuck on a team concept more than just about any team I have seen. Most teams want a top talent and then want to build around them and aren't really stuck on what those players look like. The Bulls explicitly want this 4 athletic, switchable players around a C concept. They are acquiring players to fit into this. Maybe more now than ever. Essengue, Okuro and Kuminga all fit that mold.

They also are trying to stack up players coming into their prime. When you look at the team ages, they are loading up on players around 23 years old.

I know there was lip service to that in the earlier iteration when they kept acquiring redundant small forwards, but the rest of the roster looked and played nothing like that at all. So to the extent you mean they've strived for this design since AK took over, I don't agree with that.

But I definitely agree with you that its what they are doing now. But I'd say its less because of a specific goal and more because Giddey showed enough, but is unique enough you have to build a certain way with him while accepting the warts, to design a team concept around. And then they did that. It also helped them go down that road that a perfect player for this style - and clearly the highest ceiling player on the roster - fell to them in Matas last year.

So to some extent, it just happened and they are running with it full steam. Which I'm down with under the circumstances. Lets go nuts and see what happens. It won't be boring.

[DuckIII]

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2912/eastern-conference-summer-league-notes

On a somewhat quiet offseason: “I won’t say it was by design. But we knew we weren’t likely to make any blockbuster moves either. But we’re happy with what we did and we’re still actively looking at other options too,” a Bulls front office executive said.

On Josh Giddey: “We want to get a deal done with Josh. He’s as important of a player as we have. We see him as a foundational player for us. I hope we can find a deal that makes sense for us and him and that we’ll be together for a long time,” a Bulls front office executive said.

On Matas Buzelis: “He’s going to be really, really good. He wants it so damn bad. This kid pushes himself so hard. And you see that on the floor too. But it’s the quiet moments when you see him work. He’s wildly intense about getting better and improving,” a Bulls coach said.

On the roster as a whole: “Last year, we played pretty fast. I think we can play even faster next season. Our roster is built for it. And you saw with Indiana and OKC in the Finals, that playing with pace is so important. We’re going to get after it on defense, force turnovers and then get out and run. That suits Matas (Buzelis) and Noa (Essengue) as our young forwards and all of our guards really well. We also think that Isaac (Okoro) will benefit in a more up-tempo style too. There’s untapped potential there,” a Bulls coach said.

On Coby White: “The contract is what it is. We probably can’t extend him, because the rules don’t allow for us to pay him enough,” a Bulls front office executive said. “But we want Coby to be a Bull for a long time. He knows how we feel about him.”

Sounds a little like this:

I’ll try to answer what I think they intend the current plan to be:

1. Resign Giddey, make him the primary ball-handler and playmaker and build a team that considers his strengths and weaknesses.

2. Hope Matas is a franchise player.

3. Develop Essengue as an important part of step 1 above.

4. Give Coby to the deadline and decide what to do at that point.

5. Try to move Pat.

6. Don’t make any significant “win now” moves and treat this season as an experimental and developmental year to try to keep a reasonably good draft pick for next year in a strong draft.

7. After making that pick, put the pedal to the metal immediately and get as good as you can as fast as you can (which would be a mistake unless we clearly see some contending type talent emerging quickly).

Reading the tea leaves, this appears to be the basic plan for now.

[Guru]

People act like the only way to have a plan is to know step by step exactly what you want to do. This is more wayfinding. You know the goal but there are many ways to get there and most things are out of your control so you have to adapt with circumstances. Injuries to your own players, rapid or slow player development, winning the lottery, gaining a pick because the Trailblazers improved, injuries to other players on other teams make them sellers at the deadline or buyers to replace the injured player, contract demands are steeper or lower than expected, somehow the Mavericks are willing to trade Luka....you have a plan within these unknowns but pivot as needed.

There is no clean way to go from bad to good in the NBA. That said, AKME have a few traits that I think they either need to change or will forever doom them to sub mediocrity:

1: They do not value draft capital properly or understand risk/reward decisions around it.

2: They are very short term thinkers. Ironic, because while people complain about the Bulls cheapness, one of the potential massive strengths of ownership is they would allow very long term thinking. There is no job where you could lay a foundation easier in the NBA than the Bulls where AKME got an extension for making the playoffs once in four years after a bunch of desperation win now trades.

3: They wait until they are 100% certain to make a decision, but by that time any chance of getting a good return is gone because the rest of the league is also certain.

4: They have generally used the "overpay" button as their way of getting a deal done, and it ends up biting them in the ass later because they are short on assets / space under the tax.

Lack of taking that Pelicans deal is a sign they are still stuck in the land of items #1 and #2. Coby/Ayo decisions over the next year should inform us more about #3. The Giddey negotiation shows they are at least being thoughtful about #4 now.

My issues with AKME are small, as I have said I think he is very good in lots of areas. They all are lack of deviation from the plan

1. Paying PWill
2. Not trading Drummond
3. Not pivoting off of Ball quickly enough

I get the arguments that he didnt trade players away early enough but that could be said about any team not in the top 8 of the playoffs. Its bad logic IMO. Most teams go for it and fail.

[Chi town]

With the Giddey saga, the Essengue pick, the original Kuminga interest before then, the Okoro trade and now the Coby discussion, it looks to me like the Bulls are not locked on Giddey at all - and instead are more hoping that Matas and Essengue form their forward tandem of the future, and that Coby is likely resigned to be the PG (not SG) next to a defensive wing. Giddey, rather than the focal point of the short term plan, is more of a “nice to have” rather than a presumed fixture - he would allow Matas and Essengue to develop more slowly, hedge against Coby failing at another go of being the guy running point.

It’s well documented that Coby sucks as a PG.

Giddey and Tre are way better PGs.

And yet, look at the roster w/out Giddey, if they had t accepted that lesson:

1: Coby, T.Jones
2 or 2-3: Okoro, Huerter, Ayo, Terry
3-4: Matas, Essengue, Pat, Phillips
5: Vuc, Collins, Smith

That is a group where you can easily play two of the 2/2-3, or 2 of the 3-4 (with one of the 2/2-3). It makes sense, is even easy to balance offense defense. Adding in Kuminga wouldn’t even mess things up too much.

I don’t think that they are dead set on moving on from Giddey; but the rest of the roster seems like it is quite ready to move on without him, and may make less sense with him.

The Bulls want to double down on pace and challenge for fastest team in the league. That fits Giddey perfectly. They are surrounding him with shooters and two way defenders that can fly up and down the court.

This team is being built to Giddey’s strengths. AK wanted to draft Beringer which would be a perfect fit with Giddey as well.

[dougthonus]

My issues with AKME are small, as I have said I think he is very good in lots of areas. They all are lack of deviation from the plan

1. Paying PWill
2. Not trading Drummond
3. Not pivoting off of Ball quickly enough

I get the arguments that he didnt trade players away early enough but that could be said about any team not in the top 8 of the playoffs. Its bad logic IMO. Most teams go for it and fail.

Most teams that are trying to win now, do not miss the playoffs 3 years in a row. That's the difference. When we traded for Vuc, I said it was going to be a disaster, but I would admit I was wrong if we made the 2nd round a single time. That's not a very high success criteria there.

[Chi town]

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2912/eastern-conference-summer-league-notes

On a somewhat quiet offseason: “I won’t say it was by design. But we knew we weren’t likely to make any blockbuster moves either. But we’re happy with what we did and we’re still actively looking at other options too,” a Bulls front office executive said.

On Josh Giddey: “We want to get a deal done with Josh. He’s as important of a player as we have. We see him as a foundational player for us. I hope we can find a deal that makes sense for us and him and that we’ll be together for a long time,” a Bulls front office executive said.

On Matas Buzelis: “He’s going to be really, really good. He wants it so damn bad. This kid pushes himself so hard. And you see that on the floor too. But it’s the quiet moments when you see him work. He’s wildly intense about getting better and improving,” a Bulls coach said.

On the roster as a whole: “Last year, we played pretty fast. I think we can play even faster next season. Our roster is built for it. And you saw with Indiana and OKC in the Finals, that playing with pace is so important. We’re going to get after it on defense, force turnovers and then get out and run. That suits Matas (Buzelis) and Noa (Essengue) as our young forwards and all of our guards really well. We also think that Isaac (Okoro) will benefit in a more up-tempo style too. There’s untapped potential there,” a Bulls coach said.

On Coby White: “The contract is what it is. We probably can’t extend him, because the rules don’t allow for us to pay him enough,” a Bulls front office executive said. “But we want Coby to be a Bull for a long time. He knows how we feel about him.”

I think doubling down on pace combined with disruptive defense that gets turnovers for easy buckets is most important thing in all the quotes. Quite different than the layup line known as Vuc.

If they are able to be top 3 in pace and add in the turnover producing defense they will surprise and win a bunch more games than anticipated.

I could actually see Noa carving out a nice role by the end of his rookie season as the hyper defender coming off the bench aka Caruso in the past. I think Okoro will start.

[League Circles]

Not sure if everyone is aware but we were 2nd in pace in the league last season

Of course "pace" is a stat that is minimum 50% pure noise

[dougthonus]

I think doubling down on pace combined with disruptive defense that gets turnovers for easy buckets is most important thing in all the quotes. Quite different than the layup line known as Vuc.

If they are able to be top 3 in pace and add in the turnover producing defense they will surprise and win a bunch more games than anticipated.

I could actually see Noa carving out a nice role by the end of his rookie season as the hyper defender coming off the bench aka Caruso in the past. I think Okoro will start.

It's interesting because we sure don't seem to have the personnel to be a disruptive defense that generates turnovers outside of Okoro.

[League Circles]

I think doubling down on pace combined with disruptive defense that gets turnovers for easy buckets is most important thing in all the quotes. Quite different than the layup line known as Vuc.

If they are able to be top 3 in pace and add in the turnover producing defense they will surprise and win a bunch more games than anticipated.

I could actually see Noa carving out a nice role by the end of his rookie season as the hyper defender coming off the bench aka Caruso in the past. I think Okoro will start.

It's interesting because we sure don't seem to have the personnel to be a disruptive defense that generates turnovers outside of Okoro.

Yikes, I just looked us up and we were 29th in the league in defensive TOV% last year.

[Evil_Headband]

Regarding the criticism of profits over winning, I'm not too concerned about the reluctance to pay the luxury tax. I believe Michael when he said they would be willing to go into it if they were a top-4 team in the East. The problem is that have a ton of difficulty getting there.

The criticism that makes more sense to me is about the reluctance to a do full scale rebuild. They haven't really done that since Krause. The rebuild after the Jimmy Butler trade was designed to be brief with expected contributions early on from LaVine and Dunn. They also didn't do much on the selling off of additional assets, taking on bad contracts for picks, etc. They aren't doing any of that this time too. AK sold Michael on the idea that full scale rebuilds aren't necessary -- a quality organization can keep winning without becoming a bottoming team. The financial impact of this is the Bulls mostly sell out unless they are really bad. Attendance has been pretty good during these play-in years. Maybe this is a coincidence but I think there is probably something there.

They do want to win though. And given enough time, they will be good again even if it's by luck. Hopefully sooner than later.

[League Circles]

My issues with AKME are small, as I have said I think he is very good in lots of areas. They all are lack of deviation from the plan

1. Paying PWill
2. Not trading Drummond
3. Not pivoting off of Ball quickly enough

I get the arguments that he didnt trade players away early enough but that could be said about any team not in the top 8 of the playoffs. Its bad logic IMO. Most teams go for it and fail.

Most teams that are trying to win now, do not miss the playoffs 3 years in a row. That's the difference. When we traded for Vuc, I said it was going to be a disaster, but I would admit I was wrong if we made the 2nd round a single time. That's not a very high success criteria there.

We didn't miss the playoffs 3 years in a row while trying to "win now". Not sure how that's measured but IMO there's no argument that we were trying to win now in 20-21 or last year. And in the 2 years we missed it it was by the slimmest of margins.

[League Circles]

Regarding the criticism of profits over winning, I'm not too concerned about the reluctance to pay the luxury tax. I believe Michael when he said they would be willing to go into it if they were a top-4 team in the East. The problem is that have a ton of difficulty getting there.

The criticism that makes more sense to me is about the reluctance to a do full scale rebuild. They haven't really done that since Krause. The rebuild after the Jimmy Butler trade was designed to be brief with expected contributions early on from LaVine and Dunn. They also didn't do much on the selling off of additional assets, taking on bad contracts for picks, etc. They aren't doing any of that this time too. AK sold Michael on the idea that full scale rebuilds aren't necessary -- a quality organization can keep winning without becoming a bottoming team. The financial impact of this is the Bulls mostly sell out unless they are really bad. Attendance has been pretty good during these play-in years. Maybe this is a coincidence but I think there is probably something there.

They do want to win though. And given enough time, they will be good again even if it's by luck. Hopefully sooner than later.

IMO we're literally on our 7th rebuild post-Krause.

Pax Kirk BG Deng
Rose 1
2014 rebuild with Gasol, Niko, Jimmy....
Ill-advised Jimmy, Wade, Rondo yuck rebuild
Zach and trash build
AK win now build
Current build in progress

[dougthonus]

We didn't miss the playoffs 3 years in a row while trying to "win now". Not sure how that's measured but IMO there's no argument that we were trying to win now in 20-21 or last year. And in the 2 years we missed it it was by the slimmest of margins.

Yeah, fair, we only were trying to win two of the three years, we had started the pivot last summer. Still, when you make short term moves at the extreme cost of future resources to enhance your current production, and you achieve 1 playoff appearance with a single playoff win, in three years, you have absolutely failed miserably.

ESPN ranked us 12th out of 14 lottery teams in how close we are towards building a contender. That is a miserable place to be after three years of missed playoffs.

[League Circles]

We didn't miss the playoffs 3 years in a row while trying to "win now". Not sure how that's measured but IMO there's no argument that we were trying to win now in 20-21 or last year. And in the 2 years we missed it it was by the slimmest of margins.

Yeah, fair, we only were trying to win two of the three years, we had started the pivot last summer. Still, when you make short term moves at the extreme cost of future resources to enhance your current production, and you achieve 1 playoff appearance with a single playoff win, in three years, you have absolutely failed miserably.

ESPN ranked us 12th out of 14 lottery teams in how close we are towards building a contender. That is a miserable place to be after three years of missed playoffs.

Not to split hairs but I've never subscribed to the bolded narrative. Yes the Vuc trade was very bad but I'd argue not because we made "short term" moves at "extreme" costs for "current production".

My reasoning is that we basically traded Wendell Carter and a couple picks that no team should ever project to yield important, building block type players with. We traded them for a guy who has been our full time starting C for almost 4.5 years and it's looking like it might be 5.5 years before he's gone. IMO that's not short term, not an extreme cost.

The problem IMO has always been that the talent and impact evaluation of Vuc was terrible. He's simply never been an above average starter even before he came to the Bulls. So IMO the structural concept of the deal was great. I'd trade two future picks and a guy I didn't want to re-sign for a 5 year starter all day. But I sure as hell wouldn't ever think that Vuc was desirable as a starter AT ALL, let alone for 5 years.

Espn's rankings are intended to get them clicks. There are an enormous numbers of Bulls fans out there, most of whom are pretty displeased with the org, so of COURSE they'll rank us near the bottom, and get the ensuing clicks and references and mentions that drive their revenue.

[Hangtime84]

I think doubling down on pace combined with disruptive defense that gets turnovers for easy buckets is most important thing in all the quotes. Quite different than the layup line known as Vuc.

If they are able to be top 3 in pace and add in the turnover producing defense they will surprise and win a bunch more games than anticipated.

I could actually see Noa carving out a nice role by the end of his rookie season as the hyper defender coming off the bench aka Caruso in the past. I think Okoro will start.

It's interesting because we sure don't seem to have the personnel to be a disruptive defense that generates turnovers outside of Okoro.

Ayo and Dalen Terry (Hurry up and get good Dalen)

Odd enough Vuc gets a lot of deflections too.

[Chi town]

I think doubling down on pace combined with disruptive defense that gets turnovers for easy buckets is most important thing in all the quotes. Quite different than the layup line known as Vuc.

If they are able to be top 3 in pace and add in the turnover producing defense they will surprise and win a bunch more games than anticipated.

I could actually see Noa carving out a nice role by the end of his rookie season as the hyper defender coming off the bench aka Caruso in the past. I think Okoro will start.

It's interesting because we sure don't seem to have the personnel to be a disruptive defense that generates turnovers outside of Okoro.

Buz was pretty good especially with blocks.

Tre was a very strong POA defender.

Noa has the length and lateral movement to be a real force on D. Those 3 with Okoro and a future rim protector C should give us a good shot. Pat when healthy can play some disruptive D too.

[Am2626]

Regarding the criticism of profits over winning, I'm not too concerned about the reluctance to pay the luxury tax. I believe Michael when he said they would be willing to go into it if they were a top-4 team in the East.The problem is that have a ton of difficulty getting there.

The criticism that makes more sense to me is about the reluctance to a do full scale rebuild. They haven't really done that since Krause. The rebuild after the Jimmy Butler trade was designed to be brief with expected contributions early on from LaVine and Dunn. They also didn't do much on the selling off of additional assets, taking on bad contracts for picks, etc. They aren't doing any of that this time too. AK sold Michael on the idea that full scale rebuilds aren't necessary -- a quality organization can keep winning without becoming a bottoming team. The financial impact of this is the Bulls mostly sell out unless they are really bad. Attendance has been pretty good during these play-in years. Maybe this is a coincidence but I think there is probably something there.

They do want to win though. And given enough time, they will be good again even if it's by luck. Hopefully sooner than later.

When the Bulls were a top 4 team in the East, didn’t Reinsdorf say that he wouldn’t go into the tax unless the Bulls were a legitimate championship contender? Bulls Ownership is just making these comments because they have to in order to sucker more fans into loyalty.