Official Jamal Shead Thread

[LoveMyRaps]

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In this recent interview, Shead said Darko had him work on his 3s and left-hand this summer. He said he also worked on his handles and being in better shape.

He also said Darko sent him some TJ McConnell quotes and the one that really stuck him was "playing hard is a skill".


His floater and finishing at the rim looked much improved during this summer league as well.

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Some follow-up questions for this thread:

How high are you on Shead? What's his ceiling/floor?
What are your predictions for him this season? What will those shooting splits look like?

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

I'm at the "I'll wait till I see threes dropping" point.

[LoveMyRaps]

I'm at the "I'll wait till I see threes dropping" point.

Definitely improved from his college days. 32% from deep last season is a solid start.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

I'm at the "I'll wait till I see threes dropping" point.

Definitely improved from his college days. 32% from deep last season is a solid start.

It looked better SL, that's for sure. Other then that, he's got everything a guy his size needs.

[tsherkin]

I'm at the "I'll wait till I see threes dropping" point.

Definitely improved from his college days. 32% from deep last season is a solid start.

Improved?

From the college career where he shot 29.6% and shot about 31% in both of his last two seasons (31.0 and 30.9)?

Doesn't look there's much change at all to me. He was good from the corners in very low volume, but primarily a 31% ATB shooter, or thereabouts, which is essentially identical to his college self.

[sbsat]

I'm at the "I'll wait till I see threes dropping" point.

Definitely improved from his college days. 32% from deep last season is a solid start.

Improved?

From the college career where he shot 29.6% and shot about 31% in both of his last two seasons (31.0 and 30.9)?

Doesn't look there's much change at all to me. He was good from the corners in very low volume, but primarily a 31% ATB shooter, or thereabouts, which is essentially identical to his college self.

well the nba three is further away is it not?

[tsherkin]

well the nba three is further away is it not?

It is. There's about a foot of difference, which isn't a huge deal. The point is more that he's a poor 3pt shooter and that hasn't really changed. But we'll see what he looks like this year, because he'll have had a year of games and practices to see if he can get any better. He sucked from 3 in college, and he isn't any better at the NBA level, so that doesn't count as "improvement" in my book. But hope springs eternal, I guess. At least until deeper into his rookie deal, heh.

[Psubs]

He's got potential to be better than FVV, due to his athleticism; quicker on defense and better finisher at the rim.

[Psubs]

well the nba three is further away is it not?

It is. There's about a foot of difference, which isn't a huge deal. The point is more that he's a poor 3pt shooter and that hasn't really changed. But we'll see what he looks like this year, because he'll have had a year of games and practices to see if he can get any better. He sucked from 3 in college, and he isn't any better at the NBA level, so that doesn't count as "improvement" in my book. But hope springs eternal, I guess. At least until deeper into his rookie deal, heh.

Lebron has shot over 37% from 3 his last 2 seasons. FVV has shot under 35% from 3, 2 of his last 3 seasons.

[tsherkin]

Lebron has shot over 37% from 3 his last 2 seasons. FVV has shot under 35% from 3, 2 of his last 3 seasons.

And?

[DreamTeam09]

Lebron has shot over 37% from 3 his last 2 seasons. FVV has shot under 35% from 3, 2 of his last 3 seasons.

And?

you are really pessimistic / half glass empty & you are arguing semantics here. It's not outlandish to see how someone can quantify similar accuracy from further distance as an improvement over a shorter distance on similar accuracy and & great starting off point. Especially when dealing with better competition over a longer stretch of games

[tsherkin]

It's not outlandish to see how someone can quantify similar accuracy from further distance as an improvement over a shorter distance on similar accuracy and & great starting off point. Especially when dealing with better competition over a longer stretch of games

I think it's pretty outlandish, personally. He was and remains a bad 3pt shooter. There wasn't any actual change in his shooting ability. It remains a comparable weakness. It's very much NOT a "great starting off point," but rather quite the opposite. He's shooting at Scottie Barnes level from 3. That isn't a good thing.

And the competition doesn't factor into it at all. Shead took 2.1 of his 3.7 3PA/g as WIDE OPEN shots (closest defender 6+ feet away), and was assisted on 87.5% of his 3s. On a similar proportion, he didn't dribble even once. So we're talking about low percentages on primarily wide open, C+S type possessions. Nothing about that is encouraging at all. He's even a comparable FT shooter to someone like Scottie.

We'll see what this season brings, but no, there's literally nothing which suggests positive things about his shot. He's been a comparable level of shooter now for half a decade without showing much change at all (especially when you realize he only took 24 3PA in his freshman season at Houston, so that sample is basically meaningless).

Shead looks promising as a defender. He has some decent chemistry with CMB and looks like he'll be a decent backup for us, but his shooting proficiency is not an area for optimism at all, particularly for a guard, and again, particularly given that we've seen him for a half decade now. This isn't a 21 year-old coming off a one-and-done year in college and then his rookie season, remember. He had a 4-year college career with no real improvement, and then looked the same as a rookie for us.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Six footers typically have to be in that 38-40% range. You can't have teams sagging on him.

They can't just force their way to the rim.

[tsherkin]

Six footers typically have to be in that 38-40% range. You can't have teams sagging on him.

They can't just force their way to the rim.

Yeah, he's a small dude, so getting to the rim and finishing well there isn't really gonna be a thing. And he did not start well in other zones, other than on his middie. He finished very poorly in close and had a well-below average short game additionally... though of course, those are things we need to see over a couple seasons. Rookie years are notoriously inefficient, even for great players, let alone 4-year college vets taken in the 2nd round.

He seems to be a quality selection at slot, but yeah, he NEEDS to be a lot better from 3 if we're going to be able to play him more than burst minutes.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Six footers typically have to be in that 38-40% range. You can't have teams sagging on him.

They can't just force their way to the rim.

Yeah, he's a small dude, so getting to the rim and finishing well there isn't really gonna be a thing. And he did not start well in other zones, other than on his middie. He finished very poorly in close and had a well-below average short game additionally... though of course, those are things we need to see over a couple seasons. Rookie years are notoriously inefficient, even for great players, let alone 4-year college vets taken in the 2nd round.

He seems to be a quality selection at slot, but yeah, he NEEDS to be a lot better from 3 if we're going to be able to play him more than burst minutes.

The problem with small guys, is they can look amazing and still be out the league. It's a very small margin for success.

[tsherkin]

The problem with small guys, is they can look amazing and still be out the league. It's a very small margin for success.

It's super tough. And yeah, for Kyle and FVV and stuff, it's all about 3pt shooting. And in Kyle's case, the ability to at least also draw fouls. FVV wasn't bad about that for a few seasons, either.

Anyway, Shead's a 2nd rounder. Literally anything we're able to get out of him is nice. And it looks like he's got enough that he should be good for 10 mpg to help spell whomever here and there. If he manages to improve and become a competent 3pt shooter, that raises his utility for us. If not, he's cheap and he can defend and he isn't a bad playmaker. And we can be patient, because he has any value and he isn't a focal piece.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

The problem with small guys, is they can look amazing and still be out the league. It's a very small margin for success.

It's super tough. And yeah, for Kyle and FVV and stuff, it's all about 3pt shooting. And in Kyle's case, the ability to at least also draw fouls. FVV wasn't bad about that for a few seasons, either.

Anyway, Shead's a 2nd rounder. Literally anything we're able to get out of him is nice. And it looks like he's got enough that he should be good for 10 mpg to help spell whomever here and there. If he manages to improve and become a competent 3pt shooter, that raises his utility for us. If not, he's cheap and he can defend and he isn't a bad playmaker. And we can be patient, because he has any value and he isn't a focal piece.

They both have a bit more trunk too. That helps a lot.

[tsherkin]

They both have a bit more trunk too. That helps a lot.

Yeah, at any position, if you lack burst, if you at least have a strong base you know how to use, that's something. Shead definitely has stocky power. That is its own archetype. Now, we'll have to see if some experience can help Shead learn how to use wiley tricks to get himself all the way to the basket the way Fred and Kyle figured out, but again, that's something we can be patient with. And if he never plays too much and never shoots too much, it'll matter only so much.

One of the nice things with Jamal is that whatever we get is nice, because he's a 2nd rounder. You get a guy who can feature anywhere in your rotation, and you call it a win. Anything more is beautiful luck, you know?

[StopitLeo]

well the nba three is further away is it not?

It is. There's about a foot of difference, which isn't a huge deal. The point is more that he's a poor 3pt shooter and that hasn't really changed. But we'll see what he looks like this year, because he'll have had a year of games and practices to see if he can get any better. He sucked from 3 in college, and he isn't any better at the NBA level, so that doesn't count as "improvement" in my book. But hope springs eternal, I guess. At least until deeper into his rookie deal, heh.

It can take a lot of time (e.g., years) to increase shooting range without your mechanics breaking down, especially if you have energy leaks. For some guys they can never develop 3pt distance because of their mechanics (DeMar DeRozan is a good example).

I think we can afford to be patient and see how Shead develops given he's a backup PG.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

They both have a bit more trunk too. That helps a lot.

Yeah, at any position, if you lack burst, if you at least have a strong base you know how to use, that's something. Shead definitely has stocky power. That is its own archetype. Now, we'll have to see if some experience can help Shead learn how to use wiley tricks to get himself all the way to the basket the way Fred and Kyle figured out, but again, that's something we can be patient with. And if he never plays too much and never shoots too much, it'll matter only so much.

One of the nice things with Jamal is that whatever we get is nice, because he's a 2nd rounder. You get a guy who can feature anywhere in your rotation, and you call it a win. Anything more is beautiful luck, you know?

He shows up and plays hard. It's already a win at this point.