earthtone wrote:It's draft season and the off-season, so there's a lot of talk about roster building and how to construct the team for next year. One constant I've noticed in a lot of these discussions is that RJ Barrett is confusingly, (near criminally) underrated by a large segment of the fan base. His play as a Raptor has been a lot closer to All-Star level than to 'toxic asset' or salary dump levels, and the negativity about his contract, skill set, and ability to fit within this roster, don't seem to match up with his on-court play.
In a January 2024 press conference, the first after the OG Anunoby & Pascal Siakam trades, Masai had this to say about the acquisition of RJ:
We're trying to teach him to play in a different way and I think he's going to get better at it. We already see it. His shooting will get better and we continue to grow from there...
He's 23 years old you know, and I think sometimes these players are put in those kind of situations... Sometimes right in the beginning of their careers they're not in the right situation to be honest, and we're hoping with him that was the case.
The Knicks were one of the most successful teams in the league this past year, but this current Knicks organization isn't the same one RJ was drafted to. RJ was drafted to a Knicks franchise that had won 1 playoff series in the past 19 years, and had a history of poor asset management, and even worse player development. Even with his struggles and inefficient play as a Knick, he's still pretty comfortably in their top three best draft picks of the past 30 years, and was a big part of their resurgence back to respectability. While on his rookie contract he helped lead the Knicks to two playoff appearances including their first playoff series win in a decade, but his impact was muted by his inconsistent shooting, poor shot-selection/playmaking, and lacklustre defense.
RJ's Knicks career lasted 4.5 seasons from ages 19-23, and he averaged 18.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, shooting 34% from three with a .476 EFG%. He averaged -2.4 BPM, -0.9 VORP, and a negative EPM while with the organization.
RJ finished that season playing 32 games for the Raptors, averaging 21/6/4/ while shooting a scorching 39% from three and .601 EFG%. He followed that extremely hot end to the season with a great showing for Canada in the Olympics. Over 4 games, RJ averaged 20/4/3 while shooting 43% from 3PT, showcasing great defense and looking like one of the best players in the world on the global stage.
His hot shooting didn't translate over to the 2024-25 season, but he continued to improve in many aspects of his game. He led the team in drives, and his relentless rim-pressure combined with his improvement as a ball-handler allowed him to create paint touches and will and draw gravity that unlocked his potential as a shooter. At a point mid-season, the RJ + Jakob pick & roll was one of the most efficient plays in the NBA, and RJ showed off a much improved shot diet -going from 46% on 2's as a Knick to 55% as a Raptor - and a huge leap in playmaking ability, nearly doubling his assist percentage from 13.4 in NY, to 24.5 in TOR.
He made significant strides in effort and consistency, using ways to utilize his strength and contact balance as an on-ball defender, and was much more engaged and active playing passing lanes and rotating to plug driving lanes as a help defender. He had his first season with a positive BPM and he had the highest WPA of his career.
He finished the 2024-25 season as a 24 year old averaging 21.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, shooting 36% from three with a .522 EFG%. He finished the season a positive BPM and VORP for the first time in his career.
Over the past 5 years, there have been 30 total players to average 20/5/5 in a season. Out of those 30 players, 28 have made an all-star team at least once in their career. The only two that haven't are Malcolm Brogdon, and RJ Barrett. The rest are in the perennial all-star/All-NBA tier of player, and even if you're not sold on RJ becoming that calibre of player, he's not being paid like one. Of all the players in this list signed to a contract for next season, RJ will be making the 2nd lowest-salary, after only Jalen Williams who's still on his rookie contract and is a lock to be signed to a Rookie Scale Max at the end of this playoff run.
RJ's is efficiency is below average, but his raw production is fantastic, and his efficiency after 90 games as a Raptor is already leaps and bounds better than it was a Knick, and still has a lot of time to improve.
From Masai at this year's end of season press conference:
I think RJ plays different from how he played in New York. His team focus. We're working on our offense and I think our offense will get better as we grow. We have that focus of playing together, and playing the right way, and attacking the game, and it's really built our culture.
... He told on himself. He can defend now.
When we traded for RJ, the plan was to get him to adapt to a more efficient play style, become a better playmaker, and improve his defense. Fifteen months later, I think it's hard to make the case he hasn't done that. We have a hometown kid who's improved in literally every counting stat and efficiency & impact metric since joining the Raptors, and he'll only be 25 years old for the entirety of next season.
I don't think his contract is a detriment to the team. He'll be the 66th highest paid player in the league this season, and with his next contract not kicking in until the 2027-2028 season, I'd happily sign him to a long-term extension this offseason. With his current growth curve and trajectory since joining the franchise, I think it's much more likely he'll play at, or above the cost of a $30 mil/yr extension than he'll play below it. I think he's a great fit with this roster, and I'm excited to watch him continue to grow and hopefully win some playoff games as a Raptor next year.
