Zatzman: This era of the Raptors depends massively on Brandon Ingram

[ATLTimekeeper]

For reference, the Poeltl trade cost us all the players between Rob Dillingham and JaKobe Walter.

The Ingram trade is unknown but it wasn't a good pick at the time of the trade.

I think they lost on the Poeltl trade, it was a worst-case scenario in terms of the pick but they still get Poeltl, who is very good.

[JB7]

This argument doesn’t hold water because draft picks are not made in a vacuum. Sometimes Sam Presti has the 2nd overall pick. Sometimes David Kahn has the 2nd overall pick. If you have someone like Masai Ujiri drafting 2nd you’d expect well above average results.

The crux of tanking should be this: try and do what OKC did in 2022. Maximize your choices from the draft pool by tanking with your own pick and take chances with surplus picks acquired from your rebuild. It won’t always work out but the goal should be to give your FO (who is hopefully competent) multiple bites at the apple in the hopes of finding all-stars. That (was) the tanking argument for the Raptors: let our front office (who has a strong draft record) have multiple shots to find high level players. They won’t always hit on picks but if you’re tanking for 3 years they’ll have a much higher success rate if they have 5 1sts over that period as opposed to the traditional 3 1sts.

Tanking should equal: competent front office + multiple bites at the apple. It doesn’t work nearly as well if you only have one half of that equation.

Does a high pick guarantee success? No. But it does give a good FO the most choice.

To create that many opportunities in the draft, usually means the team is gutting its roster, to trade good players for those picks, and then to suck to get a high draft pick with their own pick.

Then you are counting on that strategy to pan out, otherwise you are the Pistons, Hornets, Wiz, etc.

Yeah, that’s what we should have done. We never should have traded for Poeltl. We moved late on FVV, Siakam and OG and got lesser (or no) returns. The past 3 years have proved this as we’ve missed the playoffs each year.

We missed the playoffs 3 years in a row and our highest pick was 9th. That’s a failure through and through.

We botched the last 3 years.

Last season they straight out tanked for a higher draft pick and got unlucky with the draft. Let's see how CMB turns out relative to the players selected before him.

The 2024 draft was horrible, as a draft class, and the team still manage to draft Walter, Mogbo and Shead

The 2023 draft had 3 players of note, in Wemby, Miller and Amen, and the team would have had to be in the top 4 to have a chance at any of them. Otherwise them came out with a good pick in Gradey, relative to the rest of the players taken in the 1st round.

I don't see how they botched the last 3 years. Other than hoping for lottery luck in 2023, what more could you expect?

[JB7]

For reference, the Poeltl trade cost us all the players between Rob Dillingham and JaKobe Walter.

The Ingram trade is unknown but it wasn't a good pick at the time of the trade.

I think they lost on the Poeltl trade, it was a worst-case scenario in terms of the pick but they still get Poeltl, who is very good.

Are there any players in that range you would prefer over Yak?

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

For reference, the Poeltl trade cost us all the players between Rob Dillingham and JaKobe Walter.

The Ingram trade is unknown but it wasn't a good pick at the time of the trade.

I think they lost on the Poeltl trade, it was a worst-case scenario in terms of the pick but they still get Poeltl, who is very good.

Are there any players in that range you would prefer over Yak?

Don't forget Fred's assets, it's a Poeltl cost too.

[ConSarnit]

Poeltl is a good player and it’s not his fault we’ve performed poorly. It is undeniable that we have not gained ANY benefit from the Poeltl so far and it’s been 3 years. It was a win now trade that has resulted in zero playoff appearances.

What is one positive we’ve gained from the Poeltl trade over 3 years?

The impact he's exerted whenever he's on the floor; c'mon, what kind of weird question is that?

We have an actual, rotation-level center who rebounds, rolls well, plays good defense and we fall apart when he sits on the bench. His impact is demonstrable.

The fact that the REST of the team is a disaster for various reasons speaks to him not being a superstar, not to his acquisition being a mistake. We've been over this. Measuring the trade by team success isn't a quality approach to that trade at all.

How has anything Poeltl has done on the floor actually helped us? Made our draft picks worse? Caused us to flat out lose a top 10 pick? We played better when he was on the floor? This is what has excited you as a Raptors fan? Poeltl is a good player but none of his on floor impact has actually helped the overall future of this team. You’re thrilled we won 4 more games because of Poeltl in years where we still missed the playoffs.

It’s beyond crazy to think this trade has helped us in any real way over the past 3 years.

You guys aren’t being objective. If you knew what the results of the Poeltl trade would have been never agreed to make it.

Honestly: Would you still have made the Poeltl trade in 2023 knowing what you know today? That we would have overpaid to get him (a top 10 pick), that our other draft picks would become worse because of his positive on floor impact AND that we would miss the playoffs 3 years in a row?

[tsherkin]

How has anything Poeltl has done on the floor actually helped us? Made our draft picks worse? Caused us to flat out lose a top 10 pick? We played better when he was on the floor? This is what has excited you as a Raptors fan? Poeltl is a good player but none of his on floor impact has actually helped the overall future of this team. You’re thrilled we won 4 more games because of Poeltl in years where we still missed the playoffs.

I cannot articulate how weird this line of thinking is to me.

We acquired a quality center, which is not an easy commodity to find.

You guys aren’t being objective. If you knew what the results of the Poeltl trade would have been never agreed to make it.

Straight BS. I'd have absolutely agreed to it, especially if we were also told how good Poeltl would be.

We have far larger issues with the team than acquiring a good center, man. You're way off-base on this one.

[JB7]

Lower ceiling. We have less dry powder. We're a team coming off 30W's with 200M+ already on the books.

They need salary to make trades. There was nothing they could have signed in FA that was better than what they had on the team. Team was already over the cap.

Are you sure this wasn't just a favor to BI's agent?

If BI comes out and is healthy and plays well, he is probably helping the team win, and all of a sudden you have another trade asset.

If they are thinking of him as a trade asset, then it is about what disgruntled star is out there, and can the team do a swap of BI (and his salary) plus a young player and pick(s), for that star.

Point of what the Raps are doing is accumulate as many assets as possible, build their value, and then see if they can consolidate those assets into more valuable assets.

[JB7]

For reference, the Poeltl trade cost us all the players between Rob Dillingham and JaKobe Walter.

The Ingram trade is unknown but it wasn't a good pick at the time of the trade.

I think they lost on the Poeltl trade, it was a worst-case scenario in terms of the pick but they still get Poeltl, who is very good.

Are there any players in that range you would prefer over Yak?

Don't forget Fred's assets, it's a Poeltl cost too.

Do you mean Fred leaving?

So Houston overpaying Fred is somehow now related to the Yak trade?

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

They need salary to make trades. There was nothing they could have signed in FA that was better than what they had on the team. Team was already over the cap.

Are you sure this wasn't just a favor to BI's agent?

If BI comes out and is healthy and plays well, he is probably helping the team win, and all of a sudden you have another trade asset.

If they are thinking of him as a trade asset, then it is about what disgruntled star is out there, and can the team do a swap of BI (and his salary) plus a young player and pick(s), for that star.

Point of what the Raps are doing is accumulate as many assets as possible, build their value, and then see if they can consolidate those assets into more valuable assets.

If he's on the free market, that' what...like 28M? Nobody was paying him, but us.

[ConSarnit]

For reference, the Poeltl trade cost us all the players between Rob Dillingham and JaKobe Walter.

The Ingram trade is unknown but it wasn't a good pick at the time of the trade.

I think they lost on the Poeltl trade, it was a worst-case scenario in terms of the pick but they still get Poeltl, who is very good.

It also cost us 4-5 draft slots in the 2023 draft. Then there are also other downstream effects. Do we start out worse in 2024 without Poeltl and therefor improve our 2024 pick? Do we move earlier off of Siakam and OG?

The Poeltl trade caused us to hang on to trying to win for longer than we should have. Without Poeltl we probably pick in the top 10 in 2023. We pick top 10 in 2024. 2025 who knows given what other roster moves we’d make.

Poeltl helped us win at time when we should not have been focused on winning. Not Poeltl’s fault at all but definitely doesn’t help the long term outlook of the franchise.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Are there any players in that range you would prefer over Yak?

Don't forget Fred's assets, it's a Poeltl cost too.

Do you mean Fred leaving?

So Houston overpaying Fred is somehow now related to the Yak trade?

His being here is why we made the trade. So, the right play would have been move Fred and forego Poeltl.

[JB7]

Are you sure this wasn't just a favor to BI's agent?

If BI comes out and is healthy and plays well, he is probably helping the team win, and all of a sudden you have another trade asset.

If they are thinking of him as a trade asset, then it is about what disgruntled star is out there, and can the team do a swap of BI (and his salary) plus a young player and pick(s), for that star.

Point of what the Raps are doing is accumulate as many assets as possible, build their value, and then see if they can consolidate those assets into more valuable assets.

If he's on the free market, that' what...like 28M? Nobody was paying him, but us.

You are too focused on the money he is getting paid relative to his production. To make a trade work, salaries are needed. BI might not be worth the value of his contract relative to the other player coming back, but that isn't completely the point. That other player might want out, or the team wants him out, and they just need contracts to match, plus other assets. The fact that BI's deal is only 2 year plus an option means there is not a long term commitment there. By the trade deadline, or next season, his deal looks more like an expiring deal.

[ConSarnit]

They need salary to make trades. There was nothing they could have signed in FA that was better than what they had on the team. Team was already over the cap.

Are you sure this wasn't just a favor to BI's agent?

If BI comes out and is healthy and plays well, he is probably helping the team win, and all of a sudden you have another trade asset.

If they are thinking of him as a trade asset, then it is about what disgruntled star is out there, and can the team do a swap of BI (and his salary) plus a young player and pick(s), for that star.

Point of what the Raps are doing is accumulate as many assets as possible, build their value, and then see if they can consolidate those assets into more valuable assets.

I can buy this as long as they actually move off Ingram. The issue is that if he’s actually playing well we’re unlikely to move him as we’ll be a playoff team.

The problem with Ingram is if he plays well this year and the goal is to flip him he’s an expiring next year. So then we’re back to where he was with NOP, albeit hopefully he’s healthier and has more value (should we choose to move him). An expiring Ingram wasn’t exactly a hot commodity this year.

Ingrams contract is so short that flipping him could become difficult.

[JB7]

Don't forget Fred's assets, it's a Poeltl cost too.

Do you mean Fred leaving?

So Houston overpaying Fred is somehow now related to the Yak trade?

His being here is why we made the trade. So, the right play would have been move Fred and forego Poeltl.

Yak is here because the Raps needed a C. Yes he fit well with FVV, but they just needed a C, which was clear from the previous season & half (before Yak) where they went without one.

[ConSarnit]

If BI comes out and is healthy and plays well, he is probably helping the team win, and all of a sudden you have another trade asset.

If they are thinking of him as a trade asset, then it is about what disgruntled star is out there, and can the team do a swap of BI (and his salary) plus a young player and pick(s), for that star.

Point of what the Raps are doing is accumulate as many assets as possible, build their value, and then see if they can consolidate those assets into more valuable assets.

If he's on the free market, that' what...like 28M? Nobody was paying him, but us.

You are too focused on the money he is getting paid relative to his production. To make a trade work, salaries are needed. BI might not be worth the value of his contract relative to the other player coming back, but that isn't completely the point. That other player might want out, or the team wants him out, and they just need contracts to match, plus other assets. The fact that BI's deal is only 2 year plus an option means there is not a long term commitment there. By the trade deadline, or next season, his deal looks more like an expiring deal.

This just bad business though. Trading a 1st for someone who might just be filler salary as an expiring? If teams only want Ingram because of his contract that means things will have gone south for us.

[JB7]

Are you sure this wasn't just a favor to BI's agent?

If BI comes out and is healthy and plays well, he is probably helping the team win, and all of a sudden you have another trade asset.

If they are thinking of him as a trade asset, then it is about what disgruntled star is out there, and can the team do a swap of BI (and his salary) plus a young player and pick(s), for that star.

Point of what the Raps are doing is accumulate as many assets as possible, build their value, and then see if they can consolidate those assets into more valuable assets.

I can buy this as long as they actually move off Ingram. The issue is that if he’s actually playing well we’re unlikely to move him as we’ll be a playoff team.

The problem with Ingram is if he plays well this year and the goal is to flip him he’s an expiring next year. So then we’re back to where he was with NOP, albeit hopefully he’s healthier and has more value (should we choose to move him). An expiring Ingram wasn’t exactly a hot commodity this year.

Ingrams contract is so short that flipping him could become difficult.

Honestly, there is no player on this team that is off limits. I think if the right deal comes along, any could be moved. And short contracts might be more valuable in a world where there is actually downward pressure on salaries because of the aprons, which teams saw this summer.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

If BI comes out and is healthy and plays well, he is probably helping the team win, and all of a sudden you have another trade asset.

If they are thinking of him as a trade asset, then it is about what disgruntled star is out there, and can the team do a swap of BI (and his salary) plus a young player and pick(s), for that star.

Point of what the Raps are doing is accumulate as many assets as possible, build their value, and then see if they can consolidate those assets into more valuable assets.

If he's on the free market, that' what...like 28M? Nobody was paying him, but us.

You are too focused on the money he is getting paid relative to his production. To make a trade work, salaries are needed. BI might not be worth the value of his contract relative to the other player coming back, but that isn't completely the point. That other player might want out, or the team wants him out, and they just need contracts to match, plus other assets. The fact that BI's deal is only 2 year plus an option means there is not a long term commitment there. By the trade deadline, or next season, his deal looks more like an expiring deal.

If you think he has a "Best before" date, it's a bad trade. We're going to eat one of those three years, unfortunately.

[JB7]

If he's on the free market, that' what...like 28M? Nobody was paying him, but us.

You are too focused on the money he is getting paid relative to his production. To make a trade work, salaries are needed. BI might not be worth the value of his contract relative to the other player coming back, but that isn't completely the point. That other player might want out, or the team wants him out, and they just need contracts to match, plus other assets. The fact that BI's deal is only 2 year plus an option means there is not a long term commitment there. By the trade deadline, or next season, his deal looks more like an expiring deal.

This just bad business though. Trading a 1st for someone who might just be filler salary as an expiring? If teams only want Ingram because of his contract that means things will have gone south for us.

At the time the 1st looked like it would be in the 20's. You have to think BI is a better asset than a pick in the 20's. Plus, he is also salary filler in a trade.

[JB7]

If he's on the free market, that' what...like 28M? Nobody was paying him, but us.

You are too focused on the money he is getting paid relative to his production. To make a trade work, salaries are needed. BI might not be worth the value of his contract relative to the other player coming back, but that isn't completely the point. That other player might want out, or the team wants him out, and they just need contracts to match, plus other assets. The fact that BI's deal is only 2 year plus an option means there is not a long term commitment there. By the trade deadline, or next season, his deal looks more like an expiring deal.

If you think he has a "Best before" date, it's a bad trade. We're going to eat one of those three years, unfortunately.

BI is going into his 28, 29 and 30 years. Plus he is looking for his last big contract. He is fully incentivized to be healthy and play well. Raps are probably getting him for his best years. You would think he has learned through experience by now, and his body is fully developed, and hopefully healthy.

If his health doesn't hold up, then yes they are probably eating a bad contract for a year. But the deal is short enough it could be used as an expiring deal, if another team is looking to shed salary.

[ATLTimekeeper]

For reference, the Poeltl trade cost us all the players between Rob Dillingham and JaKobe Walter.

The Ingram trade is unknown but it wasn't a good pick at the time of the trade.

I think they lost on the Poeltl trade, it was a worst-case scenario in terms of the pick but they still get Poeltl, who is very good.

Are there any players in that range you would prefer over Yak?

Don't forget Fred's assets, it's a Poeltl cost too.

I think it was determined to be a late first and Grayson Allen from Milwaukee. The Clippers had an offer of Luke Kennard and Brandon Boston Jr and no pick. I'm not seeing the great set-back there.