Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[drosestruts]

who amongst us hasn't been unhappy in our professional lives when seeing people get paid more than us that we feel don't deserve it

[kodo]

Bulls are saying he's worth significantly less than Jakob Poeltl. Does anyone, even the Bulls, really believe that? If so, they need to be banned from any basketball related jobs.

If he is that much worse than Poeltl, that's fine by me because all impact stats & the eye test showed he was the main reason the Bulls had anything close to a play-in record at the end of the season. If Giddey actually is that bad, we should be in good position for a shot at Dybantsa or Boozer.

[CROBulls]

who amongst us hasn't been unhappy in our professional lives when seeing people get paid more than us that we feel don't deserve it

True. But also you cannot ask for significant raise today, without likely having secured another job with different "family". You need to have leverage in negotiating. Also him working for 20 or 30M per year for 3 years is lot different than you or me. Even if its 10-15M after tax left. Average European makes 1.5M over 40 years of their life. Greed is what boils everything down.

NBA players are making absurd amount of money. And Giddey will make before he is 35, likely over 150M.

[WesPeace]

who amongst us hasn't been unhappy in our professional lives when seeing people get paid more than us that we feel don't deserve it

True. But also you cannot ask for significant raise today, without likely having secured another job with different "family". You need to have leverage in negotiating. Also him working for 20 or 30M per year for 3 years is lot different than you or me. Even if its 10-15M after tax left. Average European makes 1.5M over 40 years of their life. Greed is what boils everything down.

NBA players are making absurd amount of money. And Giddey will make before he is 35, likely over 150M.

Sure, but hate the game, not the player.. NBA has overblown contracts for a while now, this isnt Giddey fault ,nor is that he wants to be paid like similar players. Just pay the dude 25M per and lets move on..

[Senor Chang]

who amongst us hasn't been unhappy in our professional lives when seeing people get paid more than us that we feel don't deserve it

True. But also you cannot ask for significant raise today, without likely having secured another job with different "family". You need to have leverage in negotiating. Also him working for 20 or 30M per year for 3 years is lot different than you or me. Even if its 10-15M after tax left. Average European makes 1.5M over 40 years of their life. Greed is what boils everything down.

NBA players are making absurd amount of money. And Giddey will make before he is 35, likely over 150M.

Sure, but hate the game, not the player.. NBA has overblown contracts for a while now, this isnt Giddey fault ,nor is that he wants to be paid like similar players. Just pay the dude 25M per and lets move on..

At the end of the day it seems like we’re building around giddy’s passing abilities. Give him 25 and be done with it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sco]

True. But also you cannot ask for significant raise today, without likely having secured another job with different "family". You need to have leverage in negotiating. Also him working for 20 or 30M per year for 3 years is lot different than you or me. Even if its 10-15M after tax left. Average European makes 1.5M over 40 years of their life. Greed is what boils everything down.

NBA players are making absurd amount of money. And Giddey will make before he is 35, likely over 150M.

Sure, but hate the game, not the player.. NBA has overblown contracts for a while now, this isnt Giddey fault ,nor is that he wants to be paid like similar players. Just pay the dude 25M per and lets move on..

At the end of the day it seems like we’re building around giddy’s passing abilities. Give him 25 and be done with it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Meh, there are restrictions that restrict the upside on RFA contracts. RFA big payouts rely on the interests from other teams to pay the players on the upper end for their abilities. The current market is not deep for Giddey...hence the low offer. If no team looks to come in and beat the offer, that's how these deals work.

There is nothing going on for the team and for Giddey that is/will likely cause either side to move until camp starts. Giddey is better off waiting to see if some team comes out of the woodwork. You won't see any movement until Giddey's agent is sure it isn't going to happen. Parties with likely settle on something in the low $20'sM, but I could see a 3 year deal get done.

I would disagree that the FO is building around anyone (other than possibly Matas). Giddey and Coby are very replaceable commodities, both just happen to be the team's best/easiest acceptable option.

[Infinity2152]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

Personal experience: As a real estate agent and appraiser, I did a lot of analysis when coming up with market value. With appraisals, on site inspections, photos, measurements, then hours on the computer. There are established variables and methods that are universal. These agents are performing these calculations and coming up with Giddey's, Kuminga's, and Grimes market value. That value will not reflect a huge discount because there's no available money right now. Because if a team comes up with the money, that goes out the window and they get the full price. They are better at coming up with accurate market value than any fan. They're trained to do it, huge part of their job. I'm not saying I'm nearly the best among pros, but with the software, training, experience, access to advanced paid data, my analysis was always going to be far better than any non trained amateur.

I don't think these agents are just pulling numbers out of their *** and coming up with $30 mill. Yes, Suggs and Quickley's contracts will be used as comparables and adjusted by player for variables. That's how it's always been done, similar level players at similar ages in similar contract situations get the same money, usually better with an expanding cap. Arguing the detail differences between Quickley, Suggs, and Giddey is just arguing the adjustables, not the comp itself.

Giddey is easily replaceable? Okay, Giddey's gone. Takes the QO. Now replace him. Find me a 20, 7, and 6 guy who's under 23 and can lead this offense for years. For $20 mill or less. How do we get him, if it's just for cap space, let Giddey go and sign me up right now! We've had like 6 guys manning the PG position the last few years, Giddey's' the first to run the offense at an elite level beside Ball, who's gone. Kind of surprised to hear you say Giddey's easily replaceable, Sco. Don't think we've had a better PG than Giddey for at least 10-15 years, outside Ball. Do you?

[jnrjr79]

Bulls are saying he's worth significantly less than Jakob Poeltl. Does anyone, even the Bulls, really believe that? If so, they need to be banned from any basketball related jobs.

If he is that much worse than Poeltl, that's fine by me because all impact stats & the eye test showed he was the main reason the Bulls had anything close to a play-in record at the end of the season. If Giddey actually is that bad, we should be in good position for a shot at Dybantsa or Boozer.

No, they aren’t saying this. Just because some team hands out a dumb contract doesn’t mean the Bulls have to use it as a basis for their dealings, even if Giddey’s agent is going to make that argument.

The Bulls also aren’t necessarily offering what they think Giddey is “worth,” they’re using the dearth of cap space on the market to try to get him on a bargain deal. Good for them.

[Infinity2152]

The egg that will be on people's faces if they are wrong. Two very bad things can happen, and we want to give it months to happen.

1. A team like Utah, that is rebuilding, clears enough cap to make Giddey a $32 mill/AAV contract. Don't say it can't happen, I can show the math if needed. Don't say it would have happened already. Jazz didn't have extra cap space to start free agency. Bucs didn't have cap space to sign Turner, his offer didn't come day 1. That's just one team that can easily clear cap to make an offer. Either we match at $32 mill, or lose him for nothing.

2. Giddey takes the QO. We get one year of Giddey, then he's likely gone. Or we pay him much more than $30 mill. Certainly much more than th $22 mill they're allegedly offering. Situations like this are EXACTLY why players take the QO.

Sure, neither of those could happen. Waiting goes both ways. Maybe a team that wasn't looking at Giddey sees the situation two weeks from now still going on and sees an opportunity. Teams don't usually make offers on RFA's because they're usually quickly re-signed by their own team or matched. If the Bulls keep acting like they won't match $25 mill? It is possible.

The reward for this risk is the possibility of saving a few mill AAV on a starter. Not going to be a $8-10 mill gap in the end, if the gap doesn't close to $5 mill or less, think he just takes the QO anyway. Well, he should for his own sake, imo.

That's completely ignoring the fact he could just get pissed off at being treated this way. So what if people in here thinks it's fair? He probably doesn't. The longer it takes, the more him being cool with long, drawn out negotiations can change. Again, look at Myles Turner's parting shots at the Pacers. Players take this personal sometimes, and will make rash decisions. It's not predictable if somebody will snap, get mad or frustrated. Or just think taking the QO is the best move. He could do it today, I think. We couldn't even trade him after that.

[Chi town]

I don’t think Suggs or IQ would be getting their contract as RFAs. Their teams def overpaid.

[dougthonus]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

FWIW, only because you mentioned me explicitly, I'm not presently working in the field. I used to run draftexpress.com with Jonathan Givony, and we did consulting with about five different teams beyond the public site (but I did statistical analysis / data / IT, not direct business tuff). I also did work for a couple other NBA startups, but the others didn't really go anywhere.

I also was a credentialed media member through the Trib when I had my blog at ChicagoNow with the Bulls, but I only went to media events very sparingly as it was a side hustle for me (maybe 3-4 events a year). My DX work ended in like 2008 or so and my media access ended 2014.

I only say that that background may give me a bit of insight into how some things work, but certainly doesn't give me any current info on how teams are thinking or any direct knowledge above other people here. I occasionally hear something from some old source, but it's pretty rare these days.

[Infinity2152]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

FWIW, only because you mentioned me explicitly, I'm not presently working in the field. I used to run draftexpress.com with Jonathan Givony, and we did consulting with about five different teams beyond the public site (but I did statistical analysis / data / IT, not direct business tuff). I also did work for a couple other NBA startups, but the others didn't really go anywhere.

I also was a credentialed media member through the Trib when I had my blog at ChicagoNow with the Bulls, but I only went to media events very sparingly as it was a side hustle for me (maybe 3-4 events a year). My DX work ended in like 2008 or so and my media access ended 2014.

I only say that that background may give me a bit of insight into how some things work, but certainly doesn't give me any current info on how teams are thinking or any direct knowledge above other people here. I occasionally hear something from some old source, but it's pretty rare these days.

Had a feeling you were involved in the business, I value experience. Thanks for sharing.

With the statistical analysis and media experience, maybe you can support the fact that the agents are likely doing much more than just looking at Suggs and Quickley's contracts and coming up with $30 mill. A lot of analysis is likely involved to come to that number. Raw market value, not value relative to current market or dollar value to the team. Team is likely much more focused on value relative to the current market and dollar value to the team.

[jnrjr79]

The egg that will be on people's faces if they are wrong. Two very bad things can happen, and we want to give it months to happen.

1. A team like Utah, that is rebuilding, clears enough cap to make Giddey a $32 mill/AAV contract. Don't say it can't happen, I can show the math if needed. Don't say it would have happened already. Jazz didn't have extra cap space to start free agency. Bucs didn't have cap space to sign Turner, his offer didn't come day 1. That's just one team that can easily clear cap to make an offer. Either we match at $32 mill, or lose him for nothing.

It would have happened already.

You can’t tell people not to say the thing that is true and refutes the point!

2. Giddey takes the QO. We get one year of Giddey, then he's likely gone. Or we pay him much more than $30 mill. Certainly much more than th $22 mill they're allegedly offering. Situations like this are EXACTLY why players take the QO.

I think this is unlikely, but possible. I think the thing *you* have to realize, though, is not everyone views this as an obviously terrible outcome, because some folks hold Giddey in lower esteem than you do and are more concerned about overpaying him than retaining him.

I’m not one of those folks. I’d pay Giddey $25M/year based on that hot end of the season and hope for the best, but I certainly understand the perspective of people who think differently.

[sco]

The egg that will be on people's faces if they are wrong. Two very bad things can happen, and we want to give it months to happen.

1. A team like Utah, that is rebuilding, clears enough cap to make Giddey a $32 mill/AAV contract. Don't say it can't happen, I can show the math if needed. Don't say it would have happened already. Jazz didn't have extra cap space to start free agency. Bucs didn't have cap space to sign Turner, his offer didn't come day 1. That's just one team that can easily clear cap to make an offer. Either we match at $32 mill, or lose him for nothing.

It would have happened already.

You can’t tell people not to say the thing that is true and refutes the point!

2. Giddey takes the QO. We get one year of Giddey, then he's likely gone. Or we pay him much more than $30 mill. Certainly much more than th $22 mill they're allegedly offering. Situations like this are EXACTLY why players take the QO.

I think this is unlikely, but possible. I think the thing *you* have to realize, though, is not everyone views this as an obviously terrible outcome, because some folks hold Giddey in lower esteem than you do and are more concerned about overpaying him than retaining him.

I’m not one of those folks. I’d pay Giddey $25M/year based on that hot end of the season and hope for the best, but I certainly understand the perspective of people who think differently.

I feel that if Giddey is "forced" to take a 4/$80 deal, he really can't be too mad at the Bulls. IMO, he's had plenty of opportunity to find a team to offer him $30M AAV (which a team might think could be enough for Bulls not to match), and nobody is coming forward.

I do wonder if Giddey himself feels that the end-of-season stuff resulting in inflated stats for him. As obvious as the whole end-of-season tanking phenominon is to us, I gotta think the players can tell the difference. Especially a guy who's been in the league for a number of years.

[Bulliever2020]

Have we heard literally any rumors whatsoever about any team at all being interested in Giddey? Seems at least with Kuminga there are some rumored interested teams. I have seen nothing posted here or elsewhere of any teams showing interest in either signing him or a sign and trade.

[MGB8]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

Personal experience: As a real estate agent and appraiser, I did a lot of analysis when coming up with market value. With appraisals, on site inspections, photos, measurements, then hours on the computer. There are established variables and methods that are universal. These agents are performing these calculations and coming up with Giddey's, Kuminga's, and Grimes market value. That value will not reflect a huge discount because there's no available money right now. Because if a team comes up with the money, that goes out the window and they get the full price. They are better at coming up with accurate market value than any fan. They're trained to do it, huge part of their job. I'm not saying I'm nearly the best among pros, but with the software, training, experience, access to advanced paid data, my analysis was always going to be far better than any non trained amateur.

I don't think these agents are just pulling numbers out of their *** and coming up with $30 mill. Yes, Suggs and Quickley's contracts will be used as comparables and adjusted by player for variables. That's how it's always been done, similar level players at similar ages in similar contract situations get the same money, usually better with an expanding cap. Arguing the detail differences between Quickley, Suggs, and Giddey is just arguing the adjustables, not the comp itself.

Giddey is easily replaceable? Okay, Giddey's gone. Takes the QO. Now replace him. Find me a 20, 7, and 6 guy who's under 23 and can lead this offense for years. For $20 mill or less. How do we get him, if it's just for cap space, let Giddey go and sign me up right now! We've had like 6 guys manning the PG position the last few years, Giddey's' the first to run the offense at an elite level beside Ball, who's gone. Kind of surprised to hear you say Giddey's easily replaceable, Sco. Don't think we've had a better PG than Giddey for at least 10-15 years, outside Ball. Do you?

He was a 20 ppg guy for 3 months when the Bulls were playing either tanking teams or teams with guys injured, for the most part. Frankly, the chances that he averages 20 ppg this year really hinge on the fact that there aren’t other, better players to take shots. 3 years ago he averaged around 18 ppg for the 2nd half - has never had an 18 ppg season since.

He will put up assists and rebounds, but so did Kris Dunn on the Bulls, and he defended well - as opposed to Giddey who is unplayably, Doug McDermott bad against guards, and passable against forwards. Elfrid Payton put up 11/7/5 for the Pels, the Knicks in 2 seasons… and is fringe in and out of the league. 3 years ago Russ put up 16/8/6 - and still gives you about 8/8/7 per 36…. And is a minimum guy because he doesn’t defend enough nowand can’t shoot well enough. He will get the minimum.

Cam Thomas just put up 24/4/3 a year after 23/3/3, and is a much better shooter - percentages being misleading as has been discussed - but is being offered a bit above the MLE.

The notion that it is a no brainer to offer Giddey 30 M is … idiotic. The Bulls are taking an appropriate position. Will likely end up a 2+1 deal. Giddey is massively overvaluing himself. Right now, even signing him to 25 M AAV could turn out to be terrible if the shooting doesn’t improve and the defense is as bad as it was vs Miami in the playoffs in game.

[nomorezorro]

[looking at four guys who are eligible to be signed by any team in the league and have not been able to draw a single offer that's even in the ballpark of what they're asking for] the agents for these guys must have an extraordinarily good sense of what they're worth

[Almost Retired]

I say give him the $$$$ he would agree to that would lock him up for as many years as possible. We can't afford his next contract. We can afford this one. If I was a GM I wouldn't keep anyone to a 3rd contract unless they were responsible for 3 or more Championships. Second contracts are expensive. Third contracts are obscene.

[MGB8]

Let’s add, last year Vuc put up 21/11/4 on excellent 61% TS - far better than Giddey. And there is zero trade interest in him, and he would not get the MLE for even 1 year.

No D = no big value.

[Infinity2152]

The egg that will be on people's faces if they are wrong. Two very bad things can happen, and we want to give it months to happen.

1. A team like Utah, that is rebuilding, clears enough cap to make Giddey a $32 mill/AAV contract. Don't say it can't happen, I can show the math if needed. Don't say it would have happened already. Jazz didn't have extra cap space to start free agency. Bucs didn't have cap space to sign Turner, his offer didn't come day 1. That's just one team that can easily clear cap to make an offer. Either we match at $32 mill, or lose him for nothing.

It would have happened already.

You can’t tell people not to say the thing that is true and refutes the point!

2. Giddey takes the QO. We get one year of Giddey, then he's likely gone. Or we pay him much more than $30 mill. Certainly much more than th $22 mill they're allegedly offering. Situations like this are EXACTLY why players take the QO.

I think this is unlikely, but possible. I think the thing *you* have to realize, though, is not everyone views this as an obviously terrible outcome, because some folks hold Giddey in lower esteem than you do and are more concerned about overpaying him than retaining him.

I’m not one of those folks. I’d pay Giddey $25M/year based on that hot end of the season and hope for the best, but I certainly understand the perspective of people who think differently.

Because how do you prove it would have happened already? Without being able to prove it, it's opinion not fact. I can ask people to stop spouting opinions as facts, unless they can prove it somehow. Because it hasn't happened is not proof.