Did Zach Lowe identify some convincing points for being low on Raptors?

[nivisi9]

Zach Lowe's new podcast just had an episode going over the East teams for this coming season.

We have seen across the media landscape everyone seems to be incredibly low on the Raptors likely due to :

- cost of the roster been critized to death.
- Finished as lottery team last year.
- fit of players on the roster, lack of shooting, etc.

It all screams to me:

- no one watches this team, historically outperform win projections in "non-tanking" seasons.

- Not taking into account Raptors were tanking with intention in 2024.

- None of our guys have really played together healthy, you cant even fairly access what they are yet.

- Guys like Poeltl/Ingram/Barnes, even Quickley (mainly hurt all year) are probably being underrated at this point.

- We may have underrated depth - bench of Dick, Obaji, CMB, Walter, Shead, Mogbo perceived more as a question mark could be an impressive unit.

However I will usually trust/consider Zach Lowe's assessment -- an analyst who actually has informed takes and unbiased analysis..

He is also very low on the Raptors and basically said something to the effect of:

"I understand the optimism around the Raptors and they do have talent on the roster but when I zoom out and think of them as a "team" I envision they will likely finish somewhere between 18th-24th best offence and maybe 12th-15th defence.

That to me is a team thats somewhere between .500 and fighting for 7th-10th. When I consider this and them as a whole I'm left wondering -- what exactly is this team "Good/Excel/Elite" at? what is their calling card?"

I thought it was an interesting/fair perspective and it made me consider if maybe I'm too optimistic for this season?

I was even considering the impressive defensive performances /team identity we saw with our young guys in summer league, but then remembering our starting lineup includes Quickley-RJ-Ingram.

All 3 of those guys are mediocre to poor defenders, how could our identity be of a "defensive disruptive team" with 3 key players playing heavy minutes not being that at all..

Thoughts?

Does Lowe make some good points on being pessimistic for this season?

What are some of the most convincing reasons for optimism?

[Rainman66]

Does Lowe make some good points on being pessimistic for this season?
Yes and no. While this whole "east is wide open" thing is true a lot of bottom-middle dwellers like Wash/Char/Phi/Chi will look to be much better, there may be less easy wins.
No because BI should be one of the better players in the east next season and the bench is much deeper with more proven NBA players.

What are some of the most convincing reasons for optimism?
I wonder if this year there will be more line up experiments or postional platooning like we did with Forderon? Something like 24/24 mins for IQ/Shead or 24/12/12 for RJ/Walter/Agbaji

[Thaddy]

Barnes should be taking a step. The same goes for RJ, Dick and several guys on the roster. Some will others won't.

I wouldn't worry about salary. We aren't a free agent market. We need to improve through trade. Some of these guys will perform well right away others will be bad contracts we have to develop.

I'd ultimately keep Barrett for this reason. I'd trade the lowest ceiling which is Agbaji. If we get more than a 29th pick it's a winning trade and we have future flexibility without losing a major piece.

A back up C that's a notch below Poeltl like Goga would out this team together. It's a top 6 team and if we see 1-2 guys take a step we could be even better.

Poeltl / Mamu
CMB / Barrett
Barnes / Walter
Ingram / Dick
IQ / Shead

I think RJ would thrive and we'd be better with a line up like this. It would hinge on Barnes and CMBs shooting but it'd guarantee a top 10 defense. RJ would have shooting around him and be able to compete against slower PFs who don't have help defense behind them.

[ForeverTFC]

Everything he said in the pod is valid. And while I'd push back at the notion that the team as constructed is what they envision, he did a good job in a previous pod pushing back on the idea that Barrett can bring any value back in a trade.

I did think he was a bit low on the Raptors though oddly enough I thought Pena was too high on us. I'd put myself somewhere in the middle: low to mid-40s wins in the base case with a punchers chance at high 40s if things click.

[DreamTeam09]

Raps are a top 5 team in the East. Our continuity and brotherhood aren't things ppl value in the summer time. We aren't giving bad/low IQ players playing time this year. I'll see y'all in January tho

[Clutch0z24]

Can't be too high or too low on this team which means Zach is prolly right that we are somewhere in the middle of the pack....The team has not logged minutes together as a unit yet....Teams that have not played together much tend to struggle for the first little while even great teams needed time to adjust...

We have talent but we still don't know if that talent will mesh together well on the court together....The spacing with shooting is still a question and health is also a big concern....So don't expect to be a contender...Our ceiling is 5th seed our floor is just missing the play ins or losing in the play ins.

[Brinbe]

Does anyone go from zero to elite in an off-season? The expectations are bit out-of-wack. Even the Thunder didn't just end up as champions out of nowhere.

We're gonna see upward progression from bottom five to middle-of-the-pack, which is what matters, and is still surely progress. And a lot of that core and the depth are still young enough where they can keep going upward, not to mention they'll surely make further consolidation moves at some point in the next few years to add talent when necessary.

I like Lowe a lot and I sort of understand where the criticism is coming from in that they're a mystery box, but criticizing the cake before you've had a chance to sample it is a bit stupid too. A lot of the media have the object permenance of goldfish and I don't think they remember what Ingram was. And adding a scorer like that is a huge force multiplier to this lineup and the other starters as well.

I wouldn't be surprised if they're eating their words as usual in six months or so, but we already went through a near decade where the 'experts' and odds-makers all consistently underrated this team.

Raps fans have a reputation for being overly sensative and it's certainly true, but there's a reason for that as well. They're definitely always overlooked and disrespected because 1) they're the foreign team and 2) lots of analysts simply don't watch/follow the team enough to know any better.

[nivisi9]

Barnes should be taking a step. The same goes for RJ, Dick and several guys on the roster. Some will others won't.

I wouldn't worry about salary. We aren't a free agent market. We need to improve through trade. Some of these guys will perform well right away others will be bad contracts we have to develop.

I'd ultimately keep Barrett for this reason. I'd trade the lowest ceiling which is Agbaji. If we get more than a 29th pick it's a winning trade and we have future flexibility without losing a major piece.

A back up C that's a notch below Poeltl like Goga would out this team together. It's a top 6 team and if we see 1-2 guys take a step we could be even better.

Poeltl / Mamu
CMB / Barrett
Barnes / Walter
Ingram / Dick
IQ / Shead

I think RJ would thrive and we'd be better with a line up like this. It would hinge on Barnes and CMBs shooting but it'd guarantee a top 10 defense. RJ would have shooting around him and be able to compete against slower PFs who don't have help defense behind them.

I think this is a brilliant take and if our starting 5 moves towards this is ultimately the highest ceiling outcome.

It would mean Barnes/CMB shooting performance is respectable to warrant so...

however....

I believe CMB is that good + impactful that even if the shooting takes time, heavy minutes of CMB/Barnes defensive duo is so effective they still win out together on the floor. (+/- wise)

The path to this team evolving into a young contender within the next 1-3 yrs will be based on CMB/Barnes duo because their potential for high impact on BOTH ENDS.

In time I feel confident CMB is a star, whether its more of a rich man's Draymond or shades of Kawhi will be interesting to monitor.

Also the totally writing off Quickley as a negatvie asset (which is seen everywhere) has gotten abit ridiculous.

Prior to the OG trade he was often identified as a promising young player with legit breakout potential if given the opportunity.

He has basically not been given a full healthy season individually, with a healthy teammates, minus mandate for tanking -- to see what he can do/become as a starting point guard in the NBA.

He's also probably been hearing everyone trash him and wants to show he's worth the investment -- I'm expecting a huge breakout year from IQ.
I dont think its ridiculous to envision a Garland-esque productive year from him.

Basically IQ breakout and how fast CMB ascent to stardom (1-3 yrs?) are the biggest factors for the Raptors becoming WAY BETTER then expected in the near future (that are likely to happen)

I think there are also some other interesting ones to bet on but those 2 are the most impactful:

-Barnes bounce back + improvement.

- Dick improvement + lethal weapon off bench.

- Bench Mob forms with depth of young guys.

- RJ goes back to 4th option role looks more like when acquired in trade (increased efficiency)

- Ingram career year, bounce back, compotent training staff to manage health.

- Poeltl top 10 centre, still think hes one of most underrated players in NBA total impact wise + sneaky elite playmaking for centre.

[MEDIC]

I think this will be an eventual 50+ win team if they stay together and stay healthy. Just like the Derozan/ Lowry Raptors.

[ConSarnit]

Barnes should be taking a step. The same goes for RJ, Dick and several guys on the roster. Some will others won't.

I wouldn't worry about salary. We aren't a free agent market. We need to improve through trade. Some of these guys will perform well right away others will be bad contracts we have to develop.

I'd ultimately keep Barrett for this reason. I'd trade the lowest ceiling which is Agbaji. If we get more than a 29th pick it's a winning trade and we have future flexibility without losing a major piece.

A back up C that's a notch below Poeltl like Goga would out this team together. It's a top 6 team and if we see 1-2 guys take a step we could be even better.

Poeltl / Mamu
CMB / Barrett
Barnes / Walter
Ingram / Dick
IQ / Shead

I think RJ would thrive and we'd be better with a line up like this. It would hinge on Barnes and CMBs shooting but it'd guarantee a top 10 defense. RJ would have shooting around him and be able to compete against slower PFs who don't have help defense behind them.

I think this is a brilliant take and if our starting 5 moves towards this is ultimately the highest ceiling outcome.

It would mean Barnes/CMB shooting performance is respectable to warrant so...

however....

I believe CMB is that good + impactful that even if the shooting takes time, heavy minutes of CMB/Barnes defensive duo is so effective they still win out together on the floor. (+/- wise)

The path to this team evolving into a young contender within the next 1-3 yrs will be based on CMB/Barnes duo because their potential for high impact on BOTH ENDS.

In time I feel confident CMB is a star, whether its more of a rich man's Draymond or shades of Kawhi will be interesting to monitor.

Also the totally writing off Quickley as a negatvie asset (which is seen everywhere) has gotten abit ridiculous.

Prior to the OG trade he was often identified as a promising young player with legit breakout potential if given the opportunity.

He has basically not been given a full healthy season individually, with a healthy teammates, minus mandate for tanking -- to see what he can do/become as a starting point guard in the NBA.

He's also probably been hearing everyone trash him and wants to show he's worth the investment -- I'm expecting a huge breakout year from IQ.
I dont think its ridiculous to envision a Garland-esque productive year from him.

Basically IQ breakout and how fast CMB ascent to stardom (1-3 yrs?) are the biggest factors for the Raptors becoming WAY BETTER then expected in the near future (that are likely to happen)

I think there are also some other interesting ones to bet on but those 2 are the most impactful:

-Barnes bounce back + improvement.

- Dick improvement + lethal weapon off bench.

- Bench Mob forms with depth of young guys.

- RJ goes back to 4th option role looks more like when acquired in trade (increased efficiency)

- Ingram career year, bounce back, compotent training staff to manage health.

- Poeltl top 10 centre, still think hes one of most underrated players in NBA total impact wise + sneaky elite playmaking for centre.

I disagree with a few things.

IQ: it seems like most of the league thinks it’s a bad contract. John Hollinger (who has legit league contacts) has said that the Quickley contract is disliked by front offices because it set a bad precedent. Basically agents will argue “well IQ got $32.5m so my client is at least worth that”. This heavily implies the league thinks he’s overpaid. Now, with time his contract should get better as it’s flat. I also don’t really see a major jump coming from IQ. He’s had 2ish seasons here. The “jump” guys (players who leave their team for a bigger role) usually happens right away. If he were going to be some 23/9 guy we’d have seen it already. Still a fine player, just likely overpaid for the next year or 2.

Bench mob: still pretty big question marks across the board. Who is 100% reliable as a 20+ mpg rotation player? Really only Agabji. I’d assume Walter and Dick are ready this year but it’s not guaranteed they are positive players. Shead and Sandro and even bigger question marks imo. If Sandro is only a 3rd string level C we’re facing some trouble.

Poeltl: no chance is Poeltl a top 10 C. He absolutely isn’t elite as a playmaker. There are 13 centers who average more AST per 36. Assists per game isn’t the be all end all of playmaking but it’s a pretty good baseline indicator. His rim protection hasn’t been high level during his Raptors tenure. He’s closer to the 20th best C than he is the 8th. Still a fine player.

CMB: I think he’ll have a solid impact as a rookie. His shooting will be terrible next year.

We have a lot of question marks. The East is weak and a bunch of teams are clumped together. I would not be shocked if we finished 8th or 9th. Obviously we should be far better than last year. I disagree with Lowe’s possible 36 win assessment. That only happens with injury. We should win at least 40 with moderate health.

[TimeForChange]

Ingram and RJ in the starting lineup is a terrible fit. Probably worse than pairing Demar and Lavine on the Bulls.

I am assuming they went for Ingram thinking they could trade RJ in the offseason and that didn't happen because RJ has no value around the league.

[Brinbe]

Ingram and RJ in the starting lineup is a terrible fit. Probably worse than pairing Demar and Lavine on the Bulls.

I am assuming they went for Ingram thinking they could trade RJ in the offseason and that didn't happen because RJ has no value around the league.

RJ is fine as a key reserve scorer. Discussing players in absolutes as either really good or really bad is boring discussion. They could eventually shift any of Walter/Ochai/CMB into that starting spot in the future and it'd be fine. And I think they actually did a lot last season to set him up for that role.

The only worry about him is his future contract value relative to that bench role but that has nothing to do with this season.

[Indeed]

I watched every single Raptors games last year, and I agree with Lowe and others. Particularly, overrated our offense.

If you disagree, did you watch most of the games last year?

I unsubscribed league pass this year (almost 10th year), I do not see the team being anywhere people would expect them to be.

[TimeForChange]

Ingram and RJ in the starting lineup is a terrible fit. Probably worse than pairing Demar and Lavine on the Bulls.

I am assuming they went for Ingram thinking they could trade RJ in the offseason and that didn't happen because RJ has no value around the league.

RJ is fine as a key reserve scorer. Discussing players in absolutes as either really good or really bad is boring discussion. They could eventually shift any of Walter/Ochai/CMB into that starting spot in the future and it'd be fine. And I think they actually did a lot last season to set him up for that role.

The only worry about him is his future contract value relative to that bench role but that has nothing to do with this season.

Yes, RJ is fine as someone coming off the bench. The problem is, that didn't happen.

Some of us have been saying that since last year, but the FO was very stubborn when it came to "his guys."

Thankfully, the FO lost one of RJ's bigger cheerleaders, and maybe something can finally change, and RJ gets moved to the bench.

[anj]

I think Zach's bang on. For all the talk of our defence, Ingram would really have to buy in, and we'd need to find a way to hide / get the best out of RJ on D. Neither may be in the cards. A 7-10 finish in the East sounds right. I'd love to be wrong.

[Raps in 4]

Lowe has always been a pretty bad analyst. I don't know why people like him.

I'm not very high on this team being great (I think we're set up for medicority), but Zach thinks we're going to be a lottery team again. There is no chance of that happening. We won 30 games last year while actively trying to lose games and missing our core players for most of the season.

We're going to be a 40+ win, first round exit team this season.

[anj]

Ingram and RJ in the starting lineup is a terrible fit. Probably worse than pairing Demar and Lavine on the Bulls.

I am assuming they went for Ingram thinking they could trade RJ in the offseason and that didn't happen because RJ has no value around the league.

RJ is fine as a key reserve scorer. Discussing players in absolutes as either really good or really bad is boring discussion. They could eventually shift any of Walter/Ochai/CMB into that starting spot in the future and it'd be fine. And I think they actually did a lot last season to set him up for that role.

The only worry about him is his future contract value relative to that bench role but that has nothing to do with this season.

Yes, RJ is fine as someone coming off the bench. The problem is, that didn't happen.

Some of us have been saying that since last year, but the FO was very stubborn when it came to "his guys."

Thankfully, the FO lost one of RJ's bigger cheerleaders, and maybe something can finally change, and RJ gets moved to the bench.

Just don't see a 21/6/5 guy making $28 million coming off the bench, particularly when we're looking to boost his trade value. But stranger things have happened.

[Brinbe]

Ingram and RJ in the starting lineup is a terrible fit. Probably worse than pairing Demar and Lavine on the Bulls.

I am assuming they went for Ingram thinking they could trade RJ in the offseason and that didn't happen because RJ has no value around the league.

RJ is fine as a key reserve scorer. Discussing players in absolutes as either really good or really bad is boring discussion. They could eventually shift any of Walter/Ochai/CMB into that starting spot in the future and it'd be fine. And I think they actually did a lot last season to set him up for that role.

The only worry about him is his future contract value relative to that bench role but that has nothing to do with this season.

Yes, RJ is fine as someone coming off the bench. The problem is, that didn't happen.

Some of us have been saying that since last year, but the FO was very stubborn when it came to "his guys."

Thankfully, the FO lost one of RJ's bigger cheerleaders, and maybe something can finally change, and RJ gets moved to the bench.

making mountains out of molehills. can't really take last season or even the year before as any real indicator of anything when they were experimenting with so much.

lol and I like how you go from they were trying to trade him but found no suitors to 'his guys' in the course of a single page. like, you can't even keep your own imaginary narratives straight

just stop trying to unnecessarily dramatise everything. it's just a basketball team not a season of love island. they'll make the right decisions for the team when the time's right.

[SFour]

I think anywhere around 40-45 wins is a fair prediction, that puts them in the 6-7th seeding....which is a decent stepping stone. The team is still on the younger side so they can build off that.

Success in the regular season isn't hard, you can do that even with a mediocre team, which the Raptors have a history of....it's the playoffs where that success can be exposed.

[Freeman6]

Rj doesn't need to come off the bench. Darko just needs to stagger the lineup accordingly.