Did Zach Lowe identify some convincing points for being low on Raptors?

[deeps6x]

Barnes should be taking a step. The same goes for RJ, Dick and several guys on the roster. Some will others won't.

I wouldn't worry about salary. We aren't a free agent market. We need to improve through trade. Some of these guys will perform well right away others will be bad contracts we have to develop.

I'd ultimately keep Barrett for this reason. I'd trade the lowest ceiling which is Agbaji. If we get more than a 29th pick it's a winning trade and we have future flexibility without losing a major piece.

A back up C that's a notch below Poeltl like Goga would out this team together. It's a top 6 team and if we see 1-2 guys take a step we could be even better.

Poeltl / Mamu
CMB / Barrett
Barnes / Walter
Ingram / Dick
IQ / Shead

I think RJ would thrive and we'd be better with a line up like this. It would hinge on Barnes and CMBs shooting but it'd guarantee a top 10 defense. RJ would have shooting around him and be able to compete against slower PFs who don't have help defense behind them.

I think this is a brilliant take and if our starting 5 moves towards this is ultimately the highest ceiling outcome.

It would mean Barnes/CMB shooting performance is respectable to warrant so...

however....

I believe CMB is that good + impactful that even if the shooting takes time, heavy minutes of CMB/Barnes defensive duo is so effective they still win out together on the floor. (+/- wise)

The path to this team evolving into a young contender within the next 1-3 yrs will be based on CMB/Barnes duo because their potential for high impact on BOTH ENDS.

In time I feel confident CMB is a star, whether its more of a rich man's Draymond or shades of Kawhi will be interesting to monitor.

Also the totally writing off Quickley as a negatvie asset (which is seen everywhere) has gotten abit ridiculous.

Prior to the OG trade he was often identified as a promising young player with legit breakout potential if given the opportunity.

He has basically not been given a full healthy season individually, with a healthy teammates, minus mandate for tanking -- to see what he can do/become as a starting point guard in the NBA.

He's also probably been hearing everyone trash him and wants to show he's worth the investment -- I'm expecting a huge breakout year from IQ.
I dont think its ridiculous to envision a Garland-esque productive year from him.

Basically IQ breakout and how fast CMB ascent to stardom (1-3 yrs?) are the biggest factors for the Raptors becoming WAY BETTER then expected in the near future (that are likely to happen)

I think there are also some other interesting ones to bet on but those 2 are the most impactful:

-Barnes bounce back + improvement.

- Dick improvement + lethal weapon off bench.

- Bench Mob forms with depth of young guys.

- RJ goes back to 4th option role looks more like when acquired in trade (increased efficiency)

- Ingram career year, bounce back, compotent training staff to manage health.

- Poeltl top 10 centre, still think hes one of most underrated players in NBA total impact wise + sneaky elite playmaking for centre.

I disagree with a few things.

IQ: it seems like most of the league thinks it’s a bad contract. John Hollinger (who has legit league contacts) has said that the Quickley contract is disliked by front offices because it set a bad precedent. Basically agents will argue “well IQ got $32.5m so my client is at least worth that”. This heavily implies the league thinks he’s overpaid. Now, with time his contract should get better as it’s flat. I also don’t really see a major jump coming from IQ. He’s had 2ish seasons here. The “jump” guys (players who leave their team for a bigger role) usually happens right away. If he were going to be some 23/9 guy we’d have seen it already. Still a fine player, just likely overpaid for the next year or 2.

Bench mob: still pretty big question marks across the board. Who is 100% reliable as a 20+ mpg rotation player? Really only Agabji. I’d assume Walter and Dick are ready this year but it’s not guaranteed they are positive players. Shead and Sandro and even bigger question marks imo. If Sandro is only a 3rd string level C we’re facing some trouble.

Poeltl: no chance is Poeltl a top 10 C. He absolutely isn’t elite as a playmaker. There are 13 centers who average more AST per 36. Assists per game isn’t the be all end all of playmaking but it’s a pretty good baseline indicator. His rim protection hasn’t been high level during his Raptors tenure. He’s closer to the 20th best C than he is the 8th. Still a fine player.

CMB: I think he’ll have a solid impact as a rookie. His shooting will be terrible next year.

We have a lot of question marks. The East is weak and a bunch of teams are clumped together. I would not be shocked if we finished 8th or 9th. Obviously we should be far better than last year. I disagree with Lowe’s possible 36 win assessment. That only happens with injury. We should win at least 40 with moderate health.

ConSarnit, Yes, Poeltl’s closer to the 20th best C than he is the 8th. Because he's around the 15th best C in the league. But NOBODY was suggesting he was the 8th best. Where did you pull this number from? His new deal will pay him like he's the 20th best as well, so yeah, it was fair for the team.

Thaddy, who is the SG in your starting lineup?
Poeltl / Mamu
CMB / Barrett
Barnes / Walter
Ingram / Dick
IQ / Shead

I think CMB should be switched with Walter or Dick.

[TimeForChange]

RJ is fine as a key reserve scorer. Discussing players in absolutes as either really good or really bad is boring discussion. They could eventually shift any of Walter/Ochai/CMB into that starting spot in the future and it'd be fine. And I think they actually did a lot last season to set him up for that role.

The only worry about him is his future contract value relative to that bench role but that has nothing to do with this season.

Yes, RJ is fine as someone coming off the bench. The problem is, that didn't happen.

Some of us have been saying that since last year, but the FO was very stubborn when it came to "his guys."

Thankfully, the FO lost one of RJ's bigger cheerleaders, and maybe something can finally change, and RJ gets moved to the bench.

making mountains out of molehills. can't really take last season or even the year before as any real indicator of anything when they were experimenting with so much.

lol and I like how you go from they were trying to trade him but found no suitors to 'his guys' in the course of a single page. like, you can't even keep your own imaginary narratives straight

just stop trying to unnecessarily dramatise everything. it's just a basketball team not a season of love island. they'll make the right decisions for the team when the time's right.

Since you're so close to the team, has the experimenting ended yet, or is this another year of experimenting? Is that the excuse the team is going to run with until they start winning?

The only imaginary narratives I see on this site are those who believe RJ is a good player, Ingram will be healthy this season and this team is a playoff team.

They haven't made many right decisions since the championship. Hopefully things will turn around, now that Masai is gone. Maybe the experimenting can finally end .

[ArthurVandelay]

If the 2025-2026 season is the last season EVER, I think Lowe is likely correct.

Personally I think this is a stepping stone season to contender status and he needs to expand his horizon.

[djsunyc]

media is easily swayed. it's perfectly reasonable to doubt it all.

but this is the same media picking detroit to be top 6 just because they had a good year last season. alot of teams have a blip year and then fall back down. i'm sure they all picked the kings to do well last season too based on the year before.

regardless, the team has to prove them wrong so you can't really take any issue with what anyone says about them. nor can you expect them to know the team and what transpired last season because none of these guys follow us that closely.

[VanWest82]

I envision they will likely finish somewhere between 18th-24th best offence...

This is where I'd say most pundits, including Lowe, seem to be overly pessimistic in their projections. It makes sense if you think the main guys are all going to be injured again, but Zach and others seem to also be pointing to fit (and then conflating the value of our individual contracts with our ability to win this year). "there's only one ball" etc. I'd argue our fit looks good.

Everyone seems to be assuming Ingram is going to come in and be a ball stopper because he's shown some of that throughout his career, and he didn't fit in well on team USA. I think the latter is colouring a lot of views, and it shouldn't. For one, unlike team USA, Ingram is going to get the ball a lot. We're not going to ask him to go stand in the corner. Darko's system will force player and ball movement, so as we saw last year the ball finds the best players. Also, he's an all star calibre talent with something to prove on a new team. I always bet on those guys for bounce back years.

Beyond that, we can now run out a bunch of line ups with four guys who can all (catch&)shoot, pass, dribble AND know how to move without the ball. Ingram, Quick, RJ, Scottie, and Gradey are all clear examples. JKW is not a good passer yet but his offensive instincts are otherwise really good, and I think his shot should come around in year 2. We'll see with someone like CMB whether or not he can C&S year 1 but he's a heady player, and we don't need him to excel right away. Pair four of those guys with Jak as a screener / release valve in the short roll / offensive rebounder and you have the recipe for a better-than-average offense. Back up PG is the biggest threat imo to us being top 10. We may need an upgrade there.

[YogurtProducer]

Ingram and RJ in the starting lineup is a terrible fit. Probably worse than pairing Demar and Lavine on the Bulls.

I am assuming they went for Ingram thinking they could trade RJ in the offseason and that didn't happen because RJ has no value around the league.

RJ is fine as a key reserve scorer. Discussing players in absolutes as either really good or really bad is boring discussion. They could eventually shift any of Walter/Ochai/CMB into that starting spot in the future and it'd be fine. And I think they actually did a lot last season to set him up for that role.

The only worry about him is his future contract value relative to that bench role but that has nothing to do with this season.

Yes, RJ is fine as someone coming off the bench. The problem is, that didn't happen.

Some of us have been saying that since last year, but the FO was very stubborn when it came to "his guys."

Thankfully, the FO lost one of RJ's bigger cheerleaders, and maybe something can finally change, and RJ gets moved to the bench.

.... what?

Even dating back to before last season the promo material was all IQ and Scottie - RJ was noticeably absent from it all.

[YogurtProducer]

"I understand the optimism around the Raptors and they do have talent on the roster but when I zoom out and think of them as a "team" I envision they will likely finish somewhere between 18th-24th best offence and maybe 12th-15th defence.

That to me is a team thats somewhere between .500 and fighting for 7th-10th. When I consider this and them as a whole I'm left wondering -- what exactly is this team "Good/Excel/Elite" at? what is their calling card?"

]

Last year we were the 26th best offence and 15th best defence. I just don't see how you can look at the additions we have made and conclude we made little to no improvements anywhere on the roster.

Having an actual go-to scorer is going to be huge for us. Not that Ingram is incredible or anything, but because we had no one in that role at all last year that was even close to even average at a higher volume role. Pretty much replace RJ with Ingram, while still having RJ slot further down the pecking order is going to do wonders for our offensive efficiencies (not to mention, IQ sliding in above RJ as well). CMB is also going to be a pretty big addition to our big rotation off the bench. Legit argument to be made he would have been our best bench big last year to.

I just think we are kind of tough to gauge. If everything clicks I could see us flirt from 45-50 wins. If guys don't gel and we end up in injury purgatory again we could pull the plug and win 30 games again.

But the "what are we good at"? You hope it is defence. We had a very strong defensive identiy for the last 50 or so games of the year. From Jan 1 to the end of the year we had the 7th best defence in the league. That was still with RJ being 3rd on our team in minutes, playing Orlando Robinson big time, etc.

[tsherkin]

But the "what are we good at"? You hope it is defence. We had a very strong defensive identiy for the last 50 or so games of the year. From Jan 1 to the end of the year we had the 7th best defence in the league. That was still with RJ being 3rd on our team in minutes, playing Orlando Robinson big time, etc.

The concern, of course, is that loads of teams were outright tanking in the new year, so the particulars of that defense are a little up in the air, but yeah. We look like we have some pieces to at least not-suck on defense, and maybe more than that. Which isn't a bad start. And with just reasonable health and BI incoming, we should be at worst league-average on O.

[JB7]

I think Zach Lowe is just extremely cautious and guarded in what he says in his pods, not to upset players, teams, agents or front offices. As such, the cautious approach here is to predict a slightly higher win total. And then if he is wrong and they do a lot better, nobody is upset.

If he comes out with a stronger prediction of wins, then he sets himself up for more criticism from fellow podcasters/media, if the team doesn't achieve it.

[ForeverTFC]

Does anyone go from zero to elite in an off-season? The expectations are bit out-of-wack. Even the Thunder didn't just end up as champions out of nowhere.

The big difference is the state of the East. Records will probably be elevated by 2-4 wins, especially if Embiid doesn't play. Normal trajectory would take us to a ~43 win team but this season the win column could easily show ~47.

[ForeverTFC]

I think Zach Lowe is just extremely cautious and guarded in what he says in his pods, not to upset players, teams, agents or front offices. As such, the cautious approach here is to predict a slightly higher win total. And then if he is wrong and they do a lot better, nobody is upset.

If he comes out with a stronger prediction of wins, then he sets himself up for more criticism from fellow podcasters/media, if the team doesn't achieve it.

I disagree. Something changed with Lowe and the Raptors at the beginning of the '23 season - I'm not sure if it was a Nick Nurse thing or what, but there was a tone change. He was bullish on project 6'9" and always took our overs. He's nice to his friends for sure (see: Portland and Schmitz) and is careful not to **** on players for the sake of going viral, but he's not one to play nice just to play nice. Even his coverage of the Masai firing was weird, complete a subliminal "be careful what you wish for".

[canada_dry]

Around. 500 in that 6-10th seed range is basically the expectation though no? 45 wins would be considered a really good season. 40-43 most likely. We hopefully build from there.

Id take a top 12-14 defense. I'd take an offense that isn't bottom 5 at least. We move from there.

What more are people expecting?



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[Brinbe]

Does anyone go from zero to elite in an off-season? The expectations are bit out-of-wack. Even the Thunder didn't just end up as champions out of nowhere.

The big difference is the state of the East. Records will probably be elevated by 2-4 wins, especially if Embiid doesn't play. Normal trajectory would take us to a ~43 win team but this season the win column could easily show ~47.

lol, tell that to Lowe. He's the wayward skeptic here.

[YogurtProducer]

But the "what are we good at"? You hope it is defence. We had a very strong defensive identiy for the last 50 or so games of the year. From Jan 1 to the end of the year we had the 7th best defence in the league. That was still with RJ being 3rd on our team in minutes, playing Orlando Robinson big time, etc.

The concern, of course, is that loads of teams were outright tanking in the new year, so the particulars of that defense are a little up in the air, but yeah. We look like we have some pieces to at least not-suck on defense, and maybe more than that. Which isn't a bad start. And with just reasonable health and BI incoming, we should be at worst league-average on O.

IIRC we were a top defense even in Jan/Feb long before the tanking began.

[tsherkin]

IIRC we were a top defense even in Jan/Feb long before the tanking began.

NBA.com has us by DRTG as 30th in October, 21st in November, 27th in December, 8th in January, 21st in February, 1st in March, and 14th in April.

[JB7]

I think Zach Lowe is just extremely cautious and guarded in what he says in his pods, not to upset players, teams, agents or front offices. As such, the cautious approach here is to predict a slightly higher win total. And then if he is wrong and they do a lot better, nobody is upset.

If he comes out with a stronger prediction of wins, then he sets himself up for more criticism from fellow podcasters/media, if the team doesn't achieve it.

I disagree. Something changed with Lowe and the Raptors at the beginning of the '23 season - I'm not sure if it was a Nick Nurse thing or what, but there was a tone change. He was bullish on project 6'9" and always took our overs. He's nice to his friends for sure (see: Portland and Schmitz) and is careful not to **** on players for the sake of going viral, but he's not one to play nice just to play nice. Even his coverage of the Masai firing was weird, complete a subliminal "be careful what you wish for".

He definitely doesn’t come up with a lot of hot takes like Bill Simmons. He always is trying to hover both sides of the fence.

The last two tanking seasons probably through him off, because he was used to the Raps outperforming their wins projections.

The coverage about Masai is fair, and that might be the main reason for his concern.

[YogurtProducer]

IIRC we were a top defense even in Jan/Feb long before the tanking began.

NBA.com has us by DRTG as 30th in October, 21st in November, 27th in December, 8th in January, 21st in February, 1st in March, and 14th in April.

So overall, improvements made in the new year.

This is obviously grasping a bit, but our offense improving should help our DRTG to. More possessions with a set defence rather than in transition or off a miss is going to make that improve.

[tsherkin]

So overall, improvements made in the new year.

A little, yes. We changed our rotation a bit, including some more of our more defensively-minded guys, and that definitely helped, too.

This is obviously grasping a bit, but our offense improving should help our DRTG to. More possessions with a set defence rather than in transition or off a miss is going to make that improve.

That's a thing which happened last year as well. We improved to something like -3 tpg compared to the first half of the season, and the impact was basically what you're talking about, fewer disadvantageous defensive possessions out of TOVs.

[GLF]

IIRC we were a top defense even in Jan/Feb long before the tanking began.

NBA.com has us by DRTG as 30th in October, 21st in November, 27th in December, 8th in January, 21st in February, 1st in March, and 14th in April.

Jakob was out most of February but was there for all of January and he would have been our second best defender after Scottie. You would also be replacing him with guys like Robinson and Castleton bc Kelly got traded that month. So that could have something to do with the big drop off from Jan-Feb. Now I’m not saying we would have been top 10 in Feb, but I highly doubt we would have been 21st if Jakob was playing. Regardless we just have to wait and see. We will know in a few months whether we are actually good defensively or if it was just the easy schedule.

[tsherkin]

Jakob was out most of February but was there for all of January and he would have been our second best defender after Scottie. You would also be replacing him with guys like Robinson and Castleton bc Kelly got traded that month. So that could have something to do with the big drop off from Jan-Feb. Now I’m not saying we would have been top 10 in Feb, but I highly doubt we would have been 21st if Jakob was playing. Regardless we just have to wait and see. We will know in a few months whether we are actually good defensively or if it was just the easy schedule.

Yup, all valid observations. Just things to think about. I agree that we will have to wait and see, and I am also optimistic that we will be a decent defense this year. I dunno about "good" just yet, but I'm ready to believe that we'll be something between -0.5 and +0.5, give or take.