Warriors exploring S&T for Kuminga

[Onus]

Carter only makes $4.9M. How in the heck do the Kings make the salaries work? The previously rumored Carter/Saric trade is not allowed because Saric cannot be aggregated in a trade until 1/13/26.

I think Carter + Ellis and JK gets 15M as the starting salary works.

2 more small guards to add to Steph, podz, Melton, and buddy. Still no backup pg in the bunch.

I get the love for Ellis but I doubt he plays over podz and I don't think the Steph/podz/Ellis trio is what people want to see. What we really need is a big wing capable of spelling dray and Jimmy when they rest, while leading the 2nd unit when everyone is healthy. I can understand not wanting to bet on jk being able to do either, much less both. Why restrict ourselves to players like krispert, Devon, ellis, cobi ,etc.? Especially, now.

I just can't imagine they'll be harder to trade for in Feb and the chances we are able to consolidate jk with one more asset and get an avdija, murphy, type are not insignificant. Yes, if it's irreparably broken, let's get the best return we can without giving up future picks (unless we're getting a real closer back). Otherwise, our desire to see the dubs make off-season moves shouldn't put is in a position to sell at an all time low

Keon is essentially a low end Derrick white. He would absolutely close for us. He’s a younger healthier version of melton who was fabulous for us.

If we need a back up pg we can sign Ben Simmons.

Who were the big wings on okc? Who were the big wings on the pacers? There was like 1 big wing in the entire finals and that was Siakam.

Deni and Murphy will not be available.

[AirP.]

I think Carter + Ellis and JK gets 15M as the starting salary works.

2 more small guards to add to Steph, podz, Melton, and buddy. Still no backup pg in the bunch.

I get the love for Ellis but I doubt he plays over podz and I don't think the Steph/podz/Ellis trio is what people want to see. What we really need is a big wing capable of spelling dray and Jimmy when they rest, while leading the 2nd unit when everyone is healthy. I can understand not wanting to bet on jk being able to do either, much less both. Why restrict ourselves to players like krispert, Devon, ellis, cobi ,etc.? Especially, now.

I just can't imagine they'll be harder to trade for in Feb and the chances we are able to consolidate jk with one more asset and get an avdija, murphy, type are not insignificant. Yes, if it's irreparably broken, let's get the best return we can without giving up future picks (unless we're getting a real closer back). Otherwise, our desire to see the dubs make off-season moves shouldn't put is in a position to sell at an all time low

Keon is essentially a low end Derrick white. He would absolutely close for us. He’s a younger healthier version of melton who was fabulous for us.

If we need a back up pg we can sign Ben Simmons.

Who were the big wings on okc? Who were the big wings on the pacers? There was like 1 big wing in the entire finals and that was Siakam.

Deni and Murphy will not be available.

The issue is that Ellis has to be paid after this season.

Let me put this out there on predraft D.Carter...

Given his shooting numbers, explosiveness on defense and ability to spark the team out of nowhere, he has drawn comparisons to Derrick White. It wouldn’t be surprising if his career follows a similar trajectory, starting as a defensive-minded guard and working his way to becoming an elite two-way player who can start for almost any team in the league. Carter has the advantage of his size, allowing him to play as a combo guard efficiently in both roles.

https://www.nba.com/draft/2024/prospects/devin-carter

The biggest difference between the two is of course K.Clark is more proven but D.Carter has 3 more seasons on the rookie scale contract, it's some extra flexibility.

[AirP.]

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[vvoland]

I think Carter + Ellis and JK gets 15M as the starting salary works.

2 more small guards to add to Steph, podz, Melton, and buddy. Still no backup pg in the bunch.

I get the love for Ellis but I doubt he plays over podz and I don't think the Steph/podz/Ellis trio is what people want to see. What we really need is a big wing capable of spelling dray and Jimmy when they rest, while leading the 2nd unit when everyone is healthy. I can understand not wanting to bet on jk being able to do either, much less both. Why restrict ourselves to players like krispert, Devon, ellis, cobi ,etc.? Especially, now.

I just can't imagine they'll be harder to trade for in Feb and the chances we are able to consolidate jk with one more asset and get an avdija, murphy, type are not insignificant. Yes, if it's irreparably broken, let's get the best return we can without giving up future picks (unless we're getting a real closer back). Otherwise, our desire to see the dubs make off-season moves shouldn't put is in a position to sell at an all time low

Keon is essentially a low end Derrick white. He would absolutely close for us. He’s a younger healthier version of melton who was fabulous for us.

If we need a back up pg we can sign Ben Simmons.

Who were the big wings on okc? Who were the big wings on the pacers? There was like 1 big wing in the entire finals and that was Siakam.

Deni and Murphy will not be available.

We're closing with Steph, Jimmy, dray, podz, and, ideally someone over 6'6".

Shai and jwill are bigger than anyone we have that's not jk. They were the big wings that we'd be missing without jk - no one to attack the rim, finish at a high rate, AND draw fouls.

That's before we get to the fact that OKC had some of the best poa defense, pressured the ball like hyenas, and had two athletic 7 footers patrolling the back line. They were deep enough to be able to go super small in the right matchup but even though half that roster measures out at 6'4", same as podz, the play above the rim, on both ends. Our guards don't.

Between podz and moody, buddy and melton, and a vet min backup pg (no thanks to Ben Simmons but there are worse options, to be sure) I think we can get 90% of keon next season. I don't really want to pay him next summer unless it's the full MLE.

Keon would certainly solve some of the pg defense and shooting issues. I just think we need someone with size to buttress the front court, not additional depth in the backcourt without resolving our backup pg issue.

[Onus]

2 more small guards to add to Steph, podz, Melton, and buddy. Still no backup pg in the bunch.

I get the love for Ellis but I doubt he plays over podz and I don't think the Steph/podz/Ellis trio is what people want to see. What we really need is a big wing capable of spelling dray and Jimmy when they rest, while leading the 2nd unit when everyone is healthy. I can understand not wanting to bet on jk being able to do either, much less both. Why restrict ourselves to players like krispert, Devon, ellis, cobi ,etc.? Especially, now.

I just can't imagine they'll be harder to trade for in Feb and the chances we are able to consolidate jk with one more asset and get an avdija, murphy, type are not insignificant. Yes, if it's irreparably broken, let's get the best return we can without giving up future picks (unless we're getting a real closer back). Otherwise, our desire to see the dubs make off-season moves shouldn't put is in a position to sell at an all time low

Keon is essentially a low end Derrick white. He would absolutely close for us. He’s a younger healthier version of melton who was fabulous for us.

If we need a back up pg we can sign Ben Simmons.

Who were the big wings on okc? Who were the big wings on the pacers? There was like 1 big wing in the entire finals and that was Siakam.

Deni and Murphy will not be available.

The issue is that Ellis has to be paid after this season.

Let me put this out there on predraft D.Carter...

Given his shooting numbers, explosiveness on defense and ability to spark the team out of nowhere, he has drawn comparisons to Derrick White. It wouldn’t be surprising if his career follows a similar trajectory, starting as a defensive-minded guard and working his way to becoming an elite two-way player who can start for almost any team in the league. Carter has the advantage of his size, allowing him to play as a combo guard efficiently in both roles.

https://www.nba.com/draft/2024/prospects/devin-carter

The biggest difference between the two is of course K.Clark is more proven but D.Carter has 3 more seasons on the rookie scale contract, it's some extra flexibility.

That’s fine that Keon needs to be paid the following year. Realistically we only have next year as a true contender. Plus if we need to we can cut buddy to free up space and everyone’s large contracts end the following year. So maybe we’re in salary cap hell for 1 year.

The major difference between Carter and Keon is the shooting. I actually think Carter can be a better defender in the future once he gets more experience but he’s never going to be the shooter that Keon and white are.

I like Carter but specifically for next year he’s not enough.

[Onus]

2 more small guards to add to Steph, podz, Melton, and buddy. Still no backup pg in the bunch.

I get the love for Ellis but I doubt he plays over podz and I don't think the Steph/podz/Ellis trio is what people want to see. What we really need is a big wing capable of spelling dray and Jimmy when they rest, while leading the 2nd unit when everyone is healthy. I can understand not wanting to bet on jk being able to do either, much less both. Why restrict ourselves to players like krispert, Devon, ellis, cobi ,etc.? Especially, now.

I just can't imagine they'll be harder to trade for in Feb and the chances we are able to consolidate jk with one more asset and get an avdija, murphy, type are not insignificant. Yes, if it's irreparably broken, let's get the best return we can without giving up future picks (unless we're getting a real closer back). Otherwise, our desire to see the dubs make off-season moves shouldn't put is in a position to sell at an all time low

Keon is essentially a low end Derrick white. He would absolutely close for us. He’s a younger healthier version of melton who was fabulous for us.

If we need a back up pg we can sign Ben Simmons.

Who were the big wings on okc? Who were the big wings on the pacers? There was like 1 big wing in the entire finals and that was Siakam.

Deni and Murphy will not be available.

We're closing with Steph, Jimmy, dray, podz, and, ideally someone over 6'6".

Shai and jwill are bigger than anyone we have that's not jk. They were the big wings that we'd be missing without jk - no one to attack the rim, finish at a high rate, AND draw fouls.

That's before we get to the fact that OKC had some of the best poa defense, pressured the ball like hyenas, and had two athletic 7 footers patrolling the back line. They were deep enough to be able to go super small in the right matchup but even though half that roster measures out at 6'4", same as podz, the play above the rim, on both ends. Our guards don't.

Between podz and moody, buddy and melton, and a vet min backup pg (no thanks to Ben Simmons but there are worse options, to be sure) I think we can get 90% of keon next season. I don't really want to pay him next summer unless it's the full MLE.

Keon would certainly solve some of the pg defense and shooting issues. I just think we need someone with size to buttress the front court, not additional depth in the backcourt without resolving our backup pg issue.

Podz is not definitely going to close if melton and Keon are on the team. I think melton and Keon are more likely to close together than podz. Though realistically it’s probably 2 of melton, Keon, moody, podz, buddy or horford that closes depending on matchups. I’d feel great about any of them closing.

SGA is 6’6” and JDub is 6’5”. They are not bigger than Jimmy or dray. Jimmy literally attacks the rim and draws fouls and finishes at a high rate.

Melton and Keon and moody all attack the dribble cover a ton of ground are good poa defenders and good help weakside defenders. We will have one of the best rim protectors behind them in draymond and jimmy who is really good communicator and help defender.

We would be super deep

Curry/podz/carter
Ellis/melton/buddy
Jb/moody
Dray/simmons/gui/knox
Horford/post/tjd

That’s 12-13 deep. With everyone basically being plus defenders except for post and buddy in the 13.

The size to buttress the front court is horford. Carter and melton have 6’9” wingspans. Moody has a near 7’ wingspan. On the perimeter you need length, speed and iq and we have that in spades. The only low iq player is Buddy and he’s now our 11th man.

Simmons fits because now we would actually have a ton of shooting. We only really have 4 non shooters in jb/dray/simmons/tjd.

[vvoland]

Podz is not definitely going to close if melton and Keon are on the team. I think melton and Keon are more likely to close together than podz. Though realistically it’s probably 2 of melton, Keon, moody, podz, buddy or horford that closes depending on matchups. I’d feel great about any of them closing.

SGA is 6’6” and JDub is 6’5”. They are not bigger than Jimmy or dray. Jimmy literally attacks the rim and draws fouls and finishes at a high rate.

Melton and Keon and moody all attack the dribble cover a ton of ground are good poa defenders and good help weakside defenders. We will have one of the best rim protectors behind them in draymond and jimmy who is really good communicator and help defender.

We would be super deep

Curry/podz/carter
Ellis/melton/buddy
Jb/moody
Dray/simmons/gui/knox
Horford/post/tjd

That’s 12-13 deep. With everyone basically being plus defenders except for post and buddy in the 13.

The size to buttress the front court is horford. Carter and melton have 6’9” wingspans. Moody has a near 7’ wingspan. On the perimeter you need length, speed and iq and we have that in spades. The only low iq player is Buddy and he’s now our 11th man.

Simmons fits because now we would actually have a ton of shooting. We only really have 4 non shooters in jb/dray/simmons/tjd.

For either of us, podz wouldn't close. For Steve? Not so sure.

Jdub and Shai both play above the rim and are "bigger", especially offensively, than Jimmy is now. Dray has become a midget on offense; he just can't finish near the rim anymore.

You're right about Jimmy, he's a similar size as those guys and gets to the line. He also used to pay bigger than either of the OKC kids. He has seemed to avoid layups at a weirdly high rate last year. Not sure I'd want butler to play his old style for 60+ games in the RS at 35. With Jimmy and dray operating from the mid post and Steph doing his thing, an athletic cutter and rim finisher would be nice. Without Steph/Jimmy on the floor, we kind of need a good scoring option. I still think JK can do both as he has in the past. If not jk, let's target Derrick Jones jr or someone in that ilk.

Does jk believe he'll have the chance to keep that role and get enough opportunities even if he does? That, I do not know.

Out of those 13, 5 are Simmons, Carter, tjd, gui, and knox - players I would count for 0 payoff games, at best. That's an 8 man playoff rotation. Of those, you have Steph, dray, Jimmy, horford and 4 guards. Who starts when dray/Jimmy/horford rest for 45 games, between the three of them (15 each would be a godsend, right)? A lot of guards + gui, would be my guess. Give up a first and sell-low on JK to try and win with that roster wouldn't be my first choice, even given our situation. I'd wait JK out and bet on horford not retiring.

I know I'm overly optimistic but would still like to see 45 games of moody and jk before I decide to finally move them. At least, since we didn't before and, in JKs case, the byc stuff becomes easier. I can't imagine it's so bad that we can't come to jk/Turner and give them a bit more than they're getting from sac/PHX with the promise to work with him to give a role here and/or a good place to land somewhere else. I know it hasn't happened yet, I imagine both sides are playing hardball, and I can't really blame either one. Looks like the dubs have agreements from horford and Melton and seem fine waiting jk out.

Ideally, I'd use that salary (30m+) with podz and a future pick to get a big enough piece back. Maybe Trey isn't available. But maybe NOP sucks, his shooting regresses a bit, and dumars likes what he sees from our youth and/or really needs a draft asset to save face on that ATL trade? If not deni/trey, maybe it'll be one of the ATL wings, or mikal, or ... just look at how many big name players changed teams in the last 12 months.

Appreciate the patience and respectful back and forth. Helps me get my own thoughts together on this in a coherent way.

[NW]

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Saw that. Kings would need to deal him for space for Kuminga anyway.

Rozier makes no sense for Sac and their plans though. Expand it to add Brooklyn, who takes Rozier along with the Miami 2nds for Terrence Mann. Rozier has the shorter deal. Mann goes to Sac and the difference between his deal and Derozan should cover Kuminga's contract once they send Ellis and Carter to GS

[Onus]

Podz is not definitely going to close if melton and Keon are on the team. I think melton and Keon are more likely to close together than podz. Though realistically it’s probably 2 of melton, Keon, moody, podz, buddy or horford that closes depending on matchups. I’d feel great about any of them closing.

SGA is 6’6” and JDub is 6’5”. They are not bigger than Jimmy or dray. Jimmy literally attacks the rim and draws fouls and finishes at a high rate.

Melton and Keon and moody all attack the dribble cover a ton of ground are good poa defenders and good help weakside defenders. We will have one of the best rim protectors behind them in draymond and jimmy who is really good communicator and help defender.

We would be super deep

Curry/podz/carter
Ellis/melton/buddy
Jb/moody
Dray/simmons/gui/knox
Horford/post/tjd

That’s 12-13 deep. With everyone basically being plus defenders except for post and buddy in the 13.

The size to buttress the front court is horford. Carter and melton have 6’9” wingspans. Moody has a near 7’ wingspan. On the perimeter you need length, speed and iq and we have that in spades. The only low iq player is Buddy and he’s now our 11th man.

Simmons fits because now we would actually have a ton of shooting. We only really have 4 non shooters in jb/dray/simmons/tjd.

For either of us, podz wouldn't close. For Steve? Not so sure.

Jdub and Shai both play above the rim and are "bigger", especially offensively, than Jimmy is now. Dray has become a midget on offense; he just can't finish near the rim anymore.

You're right about Jimmy, he's a similar size as those guys and gets to the line. He also used to pay bigger than either of the OKC kids. He has seemed to avoid layups at a weirdly high rate last year. Not sure I'd want butler to play his old style for 60+ games in the RS at 35. With Jimmy and dray operating from the mid post and Steph doing his thing, an athletic cutter and rim finisher would be nice. Without Steph/Jimmy on the floor, we kind of need a good scoring option. I still think JK can do both as he has in the past. If not jk, let's target Derrick Jones jr or someone in that ilk.

Does jk believe he'll have the chance to keep that role and get enough opportunities even if he does? That, I do not know.

Out of those 13, 5 are Simmons, Carter, tjd, gui, and knox - players I would count for 0 payoff games, at best. That's an 8 man playoff rotation. Of those, you have Steph, dray, Jimmy, horford and 4 guards. Who starts when dray/Jimmy/horford rest for 45 games, between the three of them (15 each would be a godsend, right)? A lot of guards + gui, would be my guess. Give up a first and sell-low on JK to try and win with that roster wouldn't be my first choice, even given our situation. I'd wait JK out and bet on horford not retiring.

I know I'm overly optimistic but would still like to see 45 games of moody and jk before I decide to finally move them. At least, since we didn't before and, in JKs case, the byc stuff becomes easier. I can't imagine it's so bad that we can't come to jk/Turner and give them a bit more than they're getting from sac/PHX with the promise to work with him to give a role here and/or a good place to land somewhere else. I know it hasn't happened yet, I imagine both sides are playing hardball, and I can't really blame either one. Looks like the dubs have agreements from horford and Melton and seem fine waiting jk out.

Ideally, I'd use that salary (30m+) with podz and a future pick to get a big enough piece back. Maybe Trey isn't available. But maybe NOP sucks, his shooting regresses a bit, and dumars likes what he sees from our youth and/or really needs a draft asset to save face on that ATL trade? If not deni/trey, maybe it'll be one of the ATL wings, or mikal, or ... just look at how many big name players changed teams in the last 12 months.

Appreciate the patience and respectful back and forth. Helps me get my own thoughts together on this in a coherent way.

I'm not sure what you mean by "bigger". JB has always passed out of layups for some reason. Ask AirP or any heat fan. I do not think another slasher would be good along side jb and dray. Another slasher may be good if one of those guys are out.

There's 15 people on the roster that i listed. You listed 5 you don't want in the playoffs so that means it's still 10 deep.

what is another 45 games going to show you that you haven't seen in 4 years?

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

For either of us, podz wouldn't close. For Steve? Not so sure.

Jdub and Shai both play above the rim and are "bigger", especially offensively, than Jimmy is now. Dray has become a midget on offense; he just can't finish near the rim anymore.

You're right about Jimmy, he's a similar size as those guys and gets to the line. He also used to pay bigger than either of the OKC kids. He has seemed to avoid layups at a weirdly high rate last year. Not sure I'd want butler to play his old style for 60+ games in the RS at 35. With Jimmy and dray operating from the mid post and Steph doing his thing, an athletic cutter and rim finisher would be nice. Without Steph/Jimmy on the floor, we kind of need a good scoring option. I still think JK can do both as he has in the past. If not jk, let's target Derrick Jones jr or someone in that ilk.

Does jk believe he'll have the chance to keep that role and get enough opportunities even if he does? That, I do not know.

Out of those 13, 5 are Simmons, Carter, tjd, gui, and knox - players I would count for 0 payoff games, at best. That's an 8 man playoff rotation. Of those, you have Steph, dray, Jimmy, horford and 4 guards. Who starts when dray/Jimmy/horford rest for 45 games, between the three of them (15 each would be a godsend, right)? A lot of guards + gui, would be my guess. Give up a first and sell-low on JK to try and win with that roster wouldn't be my first choice, even given our situation. I'd wait JK out and bet on horford not retiring.

I know I'm overly optimistic but would still like to see 45 games of moody and jk before I decide to finally move them. At least, since we didn't before and, in JKs case, the byc stuff becomes easier. I can't imagine it's so bad that we can't come to jk/Turner and give them a bit more than they're getting from sac/PHX with the promise to work with him to give a role here and/or a good place to land somewhere else. I know it hasn't happened yet, I imagine both sides are playing hardball, and I can't really blame either one. Looks like the dubs have agreements from horford and Melton and seem fine waiting jk out.

Ideally, I'd use that salary (30m+) with podz and a future pick to get a big enough piece back. Maybe Trey isn't available. But maybe NOP sucks, his shooting regresses a bit, and dumars likes what he sees from our youth and/or really needs a draft asset to save face on that ATL trade? If not deni/trey, maybe it'll be one of the ATL wings, or mikal, or ... just look at how many big name players changed teams in the last 12 months.

Appreciate the patience and respectful back and forth. Helps me get my own thoughts together on this in a coherent way.

I'm not sure what you mean by "bigger". JB has always passed out of layups for some reason. Ask AirP or any heat fan. I do not think another slasher would be good along side jb and dray. Another slasher may be good if one of those guys are out.

There's 15 people on the roster that i listed. You listed 5 you don't want in the playoffs so that means it's still 10 deep.

what is another 45 games going to show you that you haven't seen in 4 years?

I almost did a rant about this last year or so when I heard a rant of Nate Duncan from the Duck'd On podcast talking about Butler being scared to finish at the rim. Butler uses his normal attacks to the basket to playmake for teammates with nearly 0 thought of scoring himself only to draw the defense in and change the passing lanes to create opportunities for teammates usually at the 3pt line. Butler will be in this playmaking mode so deep that he'll have an easy 2 at the rim (sometimes uncontested) and sometimes pass out of it to a teammate that looks open at the corner 3.

What people have not figured still in Butler's career is that he really doesn't care about scoring unless it's personal to him or he has to, he seems to value creating opportunities for his teammates and his calculated ORTG seems to indicate he's correct. This is also why we see playoff Jimmy, the only thing that changes sometimes in the playoffs is that he's looking to score more vs create for teammates. People should have known that after his 2020 finals run when he had a few big games before the finals but he also had Goran Dragic most of that run and up until he got hurt in the ECF, Dragic was Miami's leading scoring in the playoffs. With Dragic basically out and Bam having a shoulder injury, Butler had 2 epic finals performance by putting up 2 Moster triple doubles to try to keep Miami in the series. His huge scoring outburst in the 2023 playoffs (including his56 point game vs #1 seed Milwaukee) happened because much like the finals in 2020, they had lost there only other scoring in T.Herro in the first half of game 1 of that series with a broken hand.

As a viewer, I look for 3 things to see if Butler's looking to score that night.
1. if he's **** talking or in arguments with players on the other team, he's usually going to try to score on them.
2. If he's doing his quick rocker step to create space (getting the defender to lean the wrong way) to score. The mindset in that play is to create space to score, he doesn't care about anyone else on the court other than his defender because he's already seen the lane open that he wants to drive in.
3. If his 3s are jump shots vs set shots.

Something interesting I noticed with GS's offense (maybe just particular players) more often vs what Miami did with Butler, when Butler would get a handoff or pick, the teammate would dive towards the basket and basically stop taking away the driving area vs clearing out that area to allow Butler to attack the basket to score or create for others (hopefully that will be fixed next season possibly just for Butler so he can operate).

Here's a video of Butler doing his quick rocker move and he's 100% looking to score. I can't remember the last time I've seen him do that quick rocker step and pass the ball.

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Just image how deadly Kuminga could be if he could get this move down. Look at this play, him using a rocker step to get his defender off balance would have led to an easy dunk, instead he just attacks one way, no real care of getting the player off balance to easily get by him. What players as physically gifted as Kuminga is don't seem to figure out is the power of changing speeds or faking out an opponent because they've always been faster or quicker than their defenders where it wasn't worth the work, the way Kuminga currently plays is he just utilizes his speed to make the defender have to commit to trying to get in front of him and then switching his drive the other way in stride and most of the time running into the defender and sometimes getting the call, sometimes losing the ball or having a bad shot.

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[vvoland]

I'm not sure what you mean by "bigger". JB has always passed out of layups for some reason. Ask AirP or any heat fan. I do not think another slasher would be good along side jb and dray. Another slasher may be good if one of those guys are out.

There's 15 people on the roster that i listed. You listed 5 you don't want in the playoffs so that means it's still 10 deep.

what is another 45 games going to show you that you haven't seen in 4 years?

By bigger, I mean playing above the rim. Only jk does that for us while okc has jwill, Shai, Chet, hart, & even Wiggins.

Our ten man playoff rotation would be

Steph
Ellis/buddy/podz/melton
Jb
Dray/moody
Al/post

Not sure melton is healthy or post is ready by April. That's why I said 8 but you're right, let's call it 10.

Even then, I think it makes more sense to have a 6'8" forward instead of one of those guards. Maybe jk isn't that forward, I can see that hesitation. I would rather keep Ellis and move moody, podz, or both. But we have the latter two and Ellis sounds like he'd be expensive, for a rental.

It's a good question about what do I expect to see in the first half of year 5 than I didn't see over the first 4. I want to see jk play with the core 3 (4, if we're counting horford). It didn't seem to work when jk came back but it was a playoff like environment and Steve didn't have time to fafo. It seemed like the Jimmy/JK pairing wasn't gelling but when they had to go to it in the Minny series, it looked better. With an off-season, preseason, and training camp, I'm hopeful they can find something.

Even if not, jk can still lock down a good role as the 6th man/bench scorer. If it's superfluous, we will have an easier time moving him on Feb, once the byc stuff evaporates. Edit: I'm also looking to see who becomes available in Feb as the current crop of rumors isn't what we need.

Maybe it's more of the same but I don't see anything being discussed that makes us impactfully better, despite liking keon, in a vacuum. Podz for keon? Sure. For our only wing scorer, rim finisher , and one of two people that actually draws fouls, I'd want something that would fit better. Giving Kerr 6 guards to choose from seems like asking for trouble.

I also think jk is our best on-ball option when guarding the league's most dynamic matchups. Ant, luka, Shai , etc are too big for our non-dray defenders and, for me, dray is best as a free safety, not the on -ball stopper. JK has massive flaws but when we talk about him, all we discuss are the flaws. Most of our roster has similarly obvious flaws but we have learned to put them in a position to minimize the flaws and maximize the talent. JK (and moody) are two players the team seems to have a harder time doing that for.

[vvoland]

Spoiler:

For either of us, podz wouldn't close. For Steve? Not so sure.

Jdub and Shai both play above the rim and are "bigger", especially offensively, than Jimmy is now. Dray has become a midget on offense; he just can't finish near the rim anymore.

You're right about Jimmy, he's a similar size as those guys and gets to the line. He also used to pay bigger than either of the OKC kids. He has seemed to avoid layups at a weirdly high rate last year. Not sure I'd want butler to play his old style for 60+ games in the RS at 35. With Jimmy and dray operating from the mid post and Steph doing his thing, an athletic cutter and rim finisher would be nice. Without Steph/Jimmy on the floor, we kind of need a good scoring option. I still think JK can do both as he has in the past. If not jk, let's target Derrick Jones jr or someone in that ilk.

Does jk believe he'll have the chance to keep that role and get enough opportunities even if he does? That, I do not know.

Out of those 13, 5 are Simmons, Carter, tjd, gui, and knox - players I would count for 0 payoff games, at best. That's an 8 man playoff rotation. Of those, you have Steph, dray, Jimmy, horford and 4 guards. Who starts when dray/Jimmy/horford rest for 45 games, between the three of them (15 each would be a godsend, right)? A lot of guards + gui, would be my guess. Give up a first and sell-low on JK to try and win with that roster wouldn't be my first choice, even given our situation. I'd wait JK out and bet on horford not retiring.

I know I'm overly optimistic but would still like to see 45 games of moody and jk before I decide to finally move them. At least, since we didn't before and, in JKs case, the byc stuff becomes easier. I can't imagine it's so bad that we can't come to jk/Turner and give them a bit more than they're getting from sac/PHX with the promise to work with him to give a role here and/or a good place to land somewhere else. I know it hasn't happened yet, I imagine both sides are playing hardball, and I can't really blame either one. Looks like the dubs have agreements from horford and Melton and seem fine waiting jk out.

Ideally, I'd use that salary (30m+) with podz and a future pick to get a big enough piece back. Maybe Trey isn't available. But maybe NOP sucks, his shooting regresses a bit, and dumars likes what he sees from our youth and/or really needs a draft asset to save face on that ATL trade? If not deni/trey, maybe it'll be one of the ATL wings, or mikal, or ... just look at how many big name players changed teams in the last 12 months.

Appreciate the patience and respectful back and forth. Helps me get my own thoughts together on this in a coherent way.

I'm not sure what you mean by "bigger". JB has always passed out of layups for some reason. Ask AirP or any heat fan. I do not think another slasher would be good along side jb and dray. Another slasher may be good if one of those guys are out.

There's 15 people on the roster that i listed. You listed 5 you don't want in the playoffs so that means it's still 10 deep.

what is another 45 games going to show you that you haven't seen in 4 years?

I almost did a rant about this last year or so when I heard a rant of Nate Duncan from the Duck'd On podcast talking about Butler being scared to finish at the rim. Butler uses his normal attacks to the basket to playmake for teammates with nearly 0 thought of scoring himself only to draw the defense in and change the passing lanes to create opportunities for teammates usually at the 3pt line. Butler will be in this playmaking mode so deep that he'll have an easy 2 at the rim (sometimes uncontested) and sometimes pass out of it to a teammate that looks open at the corner 3.

What people have not figured still in Butler's career is that he really doesn't care about scoring unless it's personal to him or he has to, he seems to value creating opportunities for his teammates and his calculated ORTG seems to indicate he's correct. This is also why we see playoff Jimmy, the only thing that changes sometimes in the playoffs is that he's looking to score more vs create for teammates. People should have known that after his 2020 finals run when he had a few big games before the finals but he also had Goran Dragic most of that run and up until he got hurt in the ECF, Dragic was Miami's leading scoring in the playoffs. With Dragic basically out and Bam having a shoulder injury, Butler had 2 epic finals performance by putting up 2 Moster triple doubles to try to keep Miami in the series. His huge scoring outburst in the 2023 playoffs (including his56 point game vs #1 seed Milwaukee) happened because much like the finals in 2020, they had lost there only other scoring in T.Herro in the first half of game 1 of that series with a broken hand.

As a viewer, I look for 3 things to see if Butler's looking to score that night.
1. if he's **** talking or in arguments with players on the other team, he's usually going to try to score on them.
2. If he's doing his quick rocker step to create space (getting the defender to lean the wrong way) to score. The mindset in that play is to create space to score, he doesn't care about anyone else on the court other than his defender because he's already seen the lane open that he wants to drive in.
3. If his 3s are jump shots vs set shots.

Something interesting I noticed with GS's offense (maybe just particular players) more often vs what Miami did with Butler, when Butler would get a handoff or pick, the teammate would dive towards the basket and basically stop taking away the driving area vs clearing out that area to allow Butler to attack the basket to score or create for others (hopefully that will be fixed next season possibly just for Butler so he can operate).

Here's a video of Butler doing his quick rocker move and he's 100% looking to score. I can't remember the last time I've seen him do that quick rocker step and pass the ball.

Watch on YouTube

Just image how deadly Kuminga could be if he could get this move down. Look at this play, him using a rocker step to get his defender off balance would have led to an easy dunk, instead he just attacks one way, no real care of getting the player off balance to easily get by him. What players as physically gifted as Kuminga is don't seem to figure out is the power of changing speeds or faking out an opponent because they've always been faster or quicker than their defenders where it wasn't worth the work, the way Kuminga currently plays is he just utilizes his speed to make the defender have to commit to trying to get in front of him and then switching his drive the other way in stride and most of the time running into the defender and sometimes getting the call, sometimes losing the ball or having a bad shot.

Read on Twitter

Interesting thesis on why Jimmy passes out of wide open layups. You may be right but it's an issue, especially since we already have dray and podz, two players who are allergic/petrified of taking a shot near the rim. Especially, since we're talking about moving one of the players that can finish.

I think that JK video is exactly why I think he still has room to improve, even at the things he's good at. Yes, that was a poor decision to bring it back middle.

I just looked up the numbers for jk v Jimmy on drives to the rim, last season:

Jk:
8.1 drives per game
5.1 pts
4.5 assist %
5.5 TO %

Jimmy:
12.4
5.8 pts
12.9 assist %
3.5 TO %

That makes sense, right? Jimmy is the more skilled, smarter, more experienced professional. If you comp Jimmy in year 4 to JK in year 4, just their efficiency on drives, in this example, they look very similar.

[EvanZ]

I always wanted Kuminga to live up to my Josh Smith comp, but that ain't happening.

[AirP.]

I'm not sure what you mean by "bigger". JB has always passed out of layups for some reason. Ask AirP or any heat fan. I do not think another slasher would be good along side jb and dray. Another slasher may be good if one of those guys are out.

There's 15 people on the roster that i listed. You listed 5 you don't want in the playoffs so that means it's still 10 deep.

what is another 45 games going to show you that you haven't seen in 4 years?

Spoiler:

I almost did a rant about this last year or so when I heard a rant of Nate Duncan from the Duck'd On podcast talking about Butler being scared to finish at the rim. Butler uses his normal attacks to the basket to playmake for teammates with nearly 0 thought of scoring himself only to draw the defense in and change the passing lanes to create opportunities for teammates usually at the 3pt line. Butler will be in this playmaking mode so deep that he'll have an easy 2 at the rim (sometimes uncontested) and sometimes pass out of it to a teammate that looks open at the corner 3.

What people have not figured still in Butler's career is that he really doesn't care about scoring unless it's personal to him or he has to, he seems to value creating opportunities for his teammates and his calculated ORTG seems to indicate he's correct. This is also why we see playoff Jimmy, the only thing that changes sometimes in the playoffs is that he's looking to score more vs create for teammates. People should have known that after his 2020 finals run when he had a few big games before the finals but he also had Goran Dragic most of that run and up until he got hurt in the ECF, Dragic was Miami's leading scoring in the playoffs. With Dragic basically out and Bam having a shoulder injury, Butler had 2 epic finals performance by putting up 2 Moster triple doubles to try to keep Miami in the series. His huge scoring outburst in the 2023 playoffs (including his56 point game vs #1 seed Milwaukee) happened because much like the finals in 2020, they had lost there only other scoring in T.Herro in the first half of game 1 of that series with a broken hand.

As a viewer, I look for 3 things to see if Butler's looking to score that night.
1. if he's **** talking or in arguments with players on the other team, he's usually going to try to score on them.
2. If he's doing his quick rocker step to create space (getting the defender to lean the wrong way) to score. The mindset in that play is to create space to score, he doesn't care about anyone else on the court other than his defender because he's already seen the lane open that he wants to drive in.
3. If his 3s are jump shots vs set shots.

Something interesting I noticed with GS's offense (maybe just particular players) more often vs what Miami did with Butler, when Butler would get a handoff or pick, the teammate would dive towards the basket and basically stop taking away the driving area vs clearing out that area to allow Butler to attack the basket to score or create for others (hopefully that will be fixed next season possibly just for Butler so he can operate).

Here's a video of Butler doing his quick rocker move and he's 100% looking to score. I can't remember the last time I've seen him do that quick rocker step and pass the ball.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Just image how deadly Kuminga could be if he could get this move down. Look at this play, him using a rocker step to get his defender off balance would have led to an easy dunk, instead he just attacks one way, no real care of getting the player off balance to easily get by him. What players as physically gifted as Kuminga is don't seem to figure out is the power of changing speeds or faking out an opponent because they've always been faster or quicker than their defenders where it wasn't worth the work, the way Kuminga currently plays is he just utilizes his speed to make the defender have to commit to trying to get in front of him and then switching his drive the other way in stride and most of the time running into the defender and sometimes getting the call, sometimes losing the ball or having a bad shot.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Interesting thesis on why Jimmy passes out of wide open layups. You may be right but it's an issue, especially since we already have dray and podz, two players who are allergic/petrified of taking a shot near the rim. Especially, since we're talking about moving one of the players that can finish.

I think that JK video is exactly why I think he still has room to improve, even at the things he's good at. Yes, that was a poor decision to bring it back middle.

I just looked up the numbers for jk v Jimmy on drives to the rim, last season:

Jk:
8.1 drives per game
5.1 pts
4.5 assist %
5.5 TO %

Jimmy:
12.4
5.8 pts
12.9 assist %
3.5 TO %

That makes sense, right? Jimmy is the more skilled, smarter, more experienced professional. If you comp Jimmy in year 4 to JK in year 4, just their efficiency on drives, in this example, they look very similar.

The difference in year 4, Butler was also a high level defender coming in 10th for DPOTY, meaning he was exerting a ton of energy on the defensive end usually having the toughest assignments. Before that breakout year for Butler, HE BUSTED HIS ASS TO GET ON THE COURT. His first 3 years he was basically a defensive specialist who didn't even average 10 FGA per36. Butler was willing to do anything to play because he wanted time and thought he was good enough to make a difference anywhere on the court, Kuminga just wants to be top option and if he feels good about his shots, he also will try to play defense. Basically if the team who owns his rights doesn't placate him, they're not going to get the best from him because he wants to play how he wants to play, not how the coach wants him to play. The only way you can live with a player like that is by them being so dominate you have to overlook the issues and Kuminga isn't that good, he's good but not good enough to do just what he wants to do, THATS NOT WINNING BASKETBALL, you have to coach around what a player won't do which usually hurts the team, like not moving the ball around in hopes of getting one of the greatest players in the NBA a good look.

You think Kuminga has it bad in GS, G.Forman (former Bulls GM) went to Butler after his 3rd season with an extension that was a small bump in pay and told Butler if you don't sign this contract I'm having you buried on the bench as we develop your replacement, Butler said no and bet on himself and Thibodeau kept playing him (one of the reasons the FO tried for years to get the owner to fire him). If Kuminga would have given good effort on defense, rebounded and didn't hijack the offense so much I bet he would have seen way more minutes in GS.

If you look at Butler's calculated ORTG, you'd see it's one of the highest in the league for non role-player for most of his career since becoming an all-star his 4th year, but in recent years it's went up to Jokic levels. In the playoffs, he tries to continue to play this way until one of the major scorers go out, in the bubble run to the finals Miami's top scorer G.Dragic got hurt and even Bam ended up hurt in the ECF and Finals. In the surprising upset of Giannis and Bucks Herro went out in the 1st half of game 1 so Butler picked up the slack but this isn't how he wants to play unless he absolutely has to or gets to the point he's talking **** on the court.

Season - JB Cal ORTG | Jokic Cal ORTG
24-25 136 - 133
23-24 129 - 131
22-23 136 - 134
21-22 124 - 126
20-21 123 - 130
19-20 123 - 119

There's a reason why Butler makes teams better without scoring a bunch (although when pushed can if healthy) he has low TOs which equates to more shots, plays good defense, gets steals which takes away possessions from the other team and is a good playmaker.

[ILOVEIT]

I hope none of us have a clue and Dunleavy is planning some big three of four team deal sending Kuminga and three firsts to Bucks via an assist from teams like Kings and Bulls. And yes, I would love it if Draymond AND Kuminga were sent as part of the deal to make room for Giannis.

[statsman]

I hope none of us have a clue and Dunleavy is planning some big three of four team deal sending Kuminga and three firsts to Bucks via an assist from teams like Kings and Bulls. And yes, I would love it if Draymond AND Kuminga were sent as part of the deal to make room for Giannis.

Unless the Warriors are sending out Draymond, Hield, Moody, and a S&T of Kuminga, they don't have enough salary going out to avoid a 1st apron hard cap. With Giannis, the Warriors would be battling to stay below the 2nd apron, let alone being able to stay below the 1st apron.

[vvoland]

The difference in year 4, Butler was also a high level defender coming in 10th for DPOTY, meaning he was exerting a ton of energy on the defensive end usually having the toughest assignments. Before that breakout year for Butler, HE BUSTED HIS ASS TO GET ON THE COURT. His first 3 years he was basically a defensive specialist who didn't even average 10 FGA per36. Butler was willing to do anything to play because he wanted time and thought he was good enough to make a difference anywhere on the court, Kuminga just wants to be top option and if he feels good about his shots, he also will try to play defense. Basically if the team who owns his rights doesn't placate him, they're not going to get the best from him because he wants to play how he wants to play, not how the coach wants him to play. The only way you can live with a player like that is by them being so dominate you have to overlook the issues and Kuminga isn't that good, he's good but not good enough to do just what he wants to do, THATS NOT WINNING BASKETBALL, you have to coach around what a player won't do which usually hurts the team, like not moving the ball around in hopes of getting one of the greatest players in the NBA a good look.

You think Kuminga has it bad in GS, G.Forman (former Bulls GM) went to Butler after his 3rd season with an extension that was a small bump in pay and told Butler if you don't sign this contract I'm having you buried on the bench as we develop your replacement, Butler said no and bet on himself and Thibodeau kept playing him (one of the reasons the FO tried for years to get the owner to fire him). If Kuminga would have given good effort on defense, rebounded and didn't hijack the offense so much I bet he would have seen way more minutes in GS.

If you look at Butler's calculated ORTG, you'd see it's one of the highest in the league for non role-player for most of his career since becoming an all-star his 4th year, but in recent years it's went up to Jokic levels. In the playoffs, he tries to continue to play this way until one of the major scorers go out, in the bubble run to the finals Miami's top scorer G.Dragic got hurt and even Bam ended up hurt in the ECF and Finals. In the surprising upset of Giannis and Bucks Herro went out in the 1st half of game 1 so Butler picked up the slack but this isn't how he wants to play unless he absolutely has to or gets to the point he's talking **** on the court.

Season - JB Cal ORTG | Jokic Cal ORTG
24-25 136 - 133
23-24 129 - 131
22-23 136 - 134
21-22 124 - 126
20-21 123 - 130
19-20 123 - 119

There's a reason why Butler makes teams better without scoring a bunch (although when pushed can if healthy) he has low TOs which equates to more shots, plays good defense, gets steals which takes away possessions from the other team and is a good playmaker.

I agree with most of that except, and I quote, again:

"Kuminga just wants to be top option and if he feels good about his shots, he also will try to play defense."

From everything I've seen over these 4 years, he just wanted to play and not lose minutes to the Anthony Lambs and Gui Santoss of the world. Particularly, in high leverage situations like the playoffs and the closing minutes of RS games. Not this "top option" narrative.

Is he great on defense? No. He is, however, pretty competitive and, on ball, has often been our best option on a variety of stars. Including being the best on-ball defender on ant AND randle, in these playoffs. His problems lie off ball and other areas and his effort does wane. I think it's less the shots he's getting that the minutes but we can agree to disagree on that for the most part, I have on issues with his defensive effort, on-ball. It's his bball IQ on defense, mostly off ball and screen navigation, that is the current issue

Is he flawed? Yes. But he also finishes around the rim and gets to the line at elite levels. Elite. He doesn't yet have a good balance in terms of his shot selection and struggles from the line, once he gets there. He's also 22 and we're looking at signing him for 30% above the current mid level exception. Could he rebound better and do more of what Kerr wants? Yes. Should we sign him to a discount in a depressed market for RFAs? Also, yes.

[vvoland]

But the thing about offer sheets — the primary mechanism for RFAs to get paid what they think they’re worth — is that they’ve become increasingly rare in recent years. The chart below shows the number of offer sheets issued to RFAs by year, according to data from prosportstransactions.com

Read on Twitter

Btw, thank you for posting this. I wanted to bump it before it got lost in the sauce.

That's a crazy graphic and really explains a lot about what's happening with Grimes, Thomas, JK, and Giddey. Should be a very loud warning sign for folks about to hit RFA.

There were 4 offer sheets extended in RFAs in 2018. 5, TOTAL, since.

[statsman]

Btw, thank you for posting this. I wanted to bump it before it got lost in the sauce.

That's a crazy graphic and really explains a lot about what's happening with Grimes, Thomas, JK, and Giddey. Should be a very loud warning sign for folks about to hit RFA.

There were 4 offer sheets extended in RFAs in 2018. 5, TOTAL, since.

I think the lockdowns due to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 probably contributed to the quiet RFA market those offseasons. The last few offseasons are very likely a result of the 2023 CBA and the rather strict implementation of the 2nd apron, and a further tightening of the already existing apron (now the 1st apron).

Teams in the league are still adjusting. I suspect they'll figure it out about the time the next CBA comes out and changes the cap and trade rules again. The top of the league stars will remain wealthy (or even wealthier). The rest of the league ... not as much as before, at least relative to the salary cap.

[Mambomuziki]

Keon is essentially a low end Derrick white. He would absolutely close for us. He’s a younger healthier version of melton who was fabulous for us.

If we need a back up pg we can sign Ben Simmons.

Who were the big wings on okc? Who were the big wings on the pacers? There was like 1 big wing in the entire finals and that was Siakam.

Deni and Murphy will not be available.

We're closing with Steph, Jimmy, dray, podz, and, ideally someone over 6'6".

Shai and jwill are bigger than anyone we have that's not jk. They were the big wings that we'd be missing without jk - no one to attack the rim, finish at a high rate, AND draw fouls.

That's before we get to the fact that OKC had some of the best poa defense, pressured the ball like hyenas, and had two athletic 7 footers patrolling the back line. They were deep enough to be able to go super small in the right matchup but even though half that roster measures out at 6'4", same as podz, the play above the rim, on both ends. Our guards don't.

Between podz and moody, buddy and melton, and a vet min backup pg (no thanks to Ben Simmons but there are worse options, to be sure) I think we can get 90% of keon next season. I don't really want to pay him next summer unless it's the full MLE.

Keon would certainly solve some of the pg defense and shooting issues. I just think we need someone with size to buttress the front court, not additional depth in the backcourt without resolving our backup pg issue.

Podz is not definitely going to close if melton and Keon are on the team. I think melton and Keon are more likely to close together than podz. Though realistically it’s probably 2 of melton, Keon, moody, podz, buddy or horford that closes depending on matchups. I’d feel great about any of them closing.

SGA is 6’6” and JDub is 6’5”. They are not bigger than Jimmy or dray. Jimmy literally attacks the rim and draws fouls and finishes at a high rate.

Melton and Keon and moody all attack the dribble cover a ton of ground are good poa defenders and good help weakside defenders. We will have one of the best rim protectors behind them in draymond and jimmy who is really good communicator and help defender.

We would be super deep

Curry/podz/carter
Ellis/melton/buddy
Jb/moody
Dray/simmons/gui/knox
Horford/post/tjd

That’s 12-13 deep. With everyone basically being plus defenders except for post and buddy in the 13.

The size to buttress the front court is horford. Carter and melton have 6’9” wingspans. Moody has a near 7’ wingspan. On the perimeter you need length, speed and iq and we have that in spades. The only low iq player is Buddy and he’s now our 11th man.

Simmons fits because now we would actually have a ton of shooting. We only really have 4 non shooters in jb/dray/simmons/tjd.

I like this. We could also get Lyles and waive GUI.

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