Early MVP Favorite for 2025-26

[bonita_the_frog]

Kevin Durant, because Rockets will win about 70 games i predict, and KD 27ppg 53%fg 43%treys.
And it won't be his last MVP, he's clearly got several more years of high-scoring and the Rockets are the future.

[Yank3525]

I will go with KD

Houston should be very good and he could easily put up 30/7/5 on elite efficiency if he remains healthy (big if, but he did play 70+ just 2 years ago). Besides Shai has already won his MVP and Joker has 3. So I could see some voter fatigue hurting them, especially with Joker.

[Bornstellar]

Kevin Durant, because Rockets will win about 70 games i predict, and KD 27ppg 53%fg 43%treys.
And it won't be his last MVP, he's clearly got several more years of high-scoring and the Rockets are the future.

Not a chance. KD has averaged 45 games played per season since he missed that year with the Achilles injury and he is only getting older. He did play 65 and 75 games the last two seasons though, but still, you can pencil him in for another 15-20 games missed due to injury at this age

[itrsteve]

An in-shape Luka has the potential to be a totally new monster.

If he's giving a crap then it can certainly be scary.

[MMyhre]

I'd love to see the Cade scenario, but we're a few years out still if we're blessed with that outcome.

Jokic. Until we see regression or something else happens, he is the best player in the world.

All hail the king of the 2nd round. Or not

[tsherkin]

Hard to envision Durant as the oldest MVP in league history with everyone else still in the league. Jordan in 98 (34) and Malone in 99 (35) are the oldest MVPs to date. And it's take a fair amount for KD to win an MVP over Jokic, SGA, Giannis or a healthy Embiid. Just doesn't make sense.

Luka, if he's focused, hitting threes and in-shape, is an interesting one to add on top of that top-4, though.

EDIT: Worth remembering that KD was about at 27/7/5 on hyper-efficiency in 2024 over 75 games and didn't even make the All-NBA 1st Team. The idea of him winning MVP just because he went to a 52-win win team with killer defense seems... limp, at best.

[EmpireFalls]

Guys no LeBron teammate is ever going to win MVP

If he leaves then Luka has a chance, but there’s no chance a player on a LeBron James team will get the usage and narrative to actually win MVP. If it comes down to it the debate will be “Jokic plays with Gordon and Murray, Luka has LeBron” and Jokic will win.

[jowglenn]

I think Luka finally gets one. The narrative is ready for him, I think the Lakers will be solid, Luka will have a career year.

[draftbarnes]

Read on Twitter

[brackdan70]

Glad he is working on his fitness, hope he keeps it up.

[UcanUwill]

Hopefully, Nico was the catalist that put fire under Luka's butt. FIBA starts soon, we will see how he looks.

[ballzboyee]

See. Fat shaming works. But, seriously, assuming this isn't another Skinny Luka fake out, I am very interested what his game will look like. We might see something nice.

[bonita_the_frog]

Kevin Durant, because Rockets will win about 70 games i predict, and KD 27ppg 53%fg 43%treys.
And it won't be his last MVP, he's clearly got several more years of high-scoring and the Rockets are the future.

Not a chance. KD has averaged 45 games played per season since he missed that year with the Achilles injury and he is only getting older. He did play 65 and 75 games the last two seasons though, but still, you can pencil him in for another 15-20 games missed due to injury at this age

Last 2 seasons Durant played 75 and 62, and he only needs to play 65 to win the MVP which he will because Houston are head and shoulders above everyone else.
Durant's adapted to his body, becoming mostly a jump shooter, so injury is less likely.
And he'll be able to relax a lot more on defense now, because he's playing with Amen Thompson and other defensive studs...
Whereas at Phoenix he had to carry the defense, so the total opposite of Houston.
Durant shot 53%fg and 43%treys last season, because he's getting better (at shooting) with age.

[BigGargamel]

Luka is on a mission. I think he'll put up a monster year. The only question is whether the Lakers will win enough games for him to get it. I don't see them as a top four team, but the roster isn't as bad as that year Jokic won it without a top seed.

I just don't see any way the Lakers finish with a top record, or Luka has a markedly better season than a Jokic or SGA. But we all know the power of the media, so who knows.

Either way, LOL @ Dallas. Still can't believe that trade 6 months later.

[iggymcfrack]

It’s Joker or Shai. They’re the 2 best players in the league by far, one’s on the best team of his career and likely to win 60 games and the other one’s on maybe the best team of all-time. Voted Joker since there seems to be a tiny bit of backlash to SGA and people would rather go Joker if it’s a tie, but it’s basically a toss-up.

Luka and Giannis are both gonna be on play-in teams and no one else has the talent to possibly dethrone them except Wemby who’s hilariously absent from the poll for some reason.

If I were gonna do odds, I’d say:

Jokic 45%
SGA 40%
Wemby 6%
Luka 5%
Field 4%

[Bornstellar]

Kevin Durant, because Rockets will win about 70 games i predict, and KD 27ppg 53%fg 43%treys.
And it won't be his last MVP, he's clearly got several more years of high-scoring and the Rockets are the future.

Not a chance. KD has averaged 45 games played per season since he missed that year with the Achilles injury and he is only getting older. He did play 65 and 75 games the last two seasons though, but still, you can pencil him in for another 15-20 games missed due to injury at this age

Last 2 seasons Durant played 75 and 62, and he only needs to play 65 to win the MVP which he will because Houston are head and shoulders above everyone else.
Durant's adapted to his body, becoming mostly a jump shooter, so injury is less likely.
And he'll be able to relax a lot more on defense now, because he's playing with Amen Thompson and other defensive studs...
Whereas at Phoenix he had to carry the defense, so the total opposite of Houston.
Durant shot 53%fg and 43%treys last season, because he's getting better (at shooting) with age.

First off I literally mentioned that he played 75 games two seasons ago in my post. But secondly, dude hasn't played more than 65 games in 7 of the last 8 seasons and now all of a sudden he's guaranteed to despite being another year older just because the Rockets are allegedly "head and shoulders above everyone else?" That makes zero sense he may very well play more than 65 but I think it's way less likely to happen than the opposite

[Wolveswin]

Doncic of the four favorites (Jokic, SGA, Giannis) is the longest shot to win MVP.

-On a LeBron James team. Won’t reward Doncic opportunity to have a statistical standout season he will need to overcome…

-Lakers being 5th (at best) or play-in team in gauntlet that is West.

-MVP competition is too much for Doncic to have say 20-40% more in statistics needed to overcome less wins AND what Jokic, Giannis, SGA is doing too.

[falcolombardi]

The lack of votes to shai is actually crazy lol, he ks extremely likely to repeat the mvp

[bonita_the_frog]

Not a chance. KD has averaged 45 games played per season since he missed that year with the Achilles injury and he is only getting older. He did play 65 and 75 games the last two seasons though, but still, you can pencil him in for another 15-20 games missed due to injury at this age

Last 2 seasons Durant played 75 and 62, and he only needs to play 65 to win the MVP which he will because Houston are head and shoulders above everyone else.
Durant's adapted to his body, becoming mostly a jump shooter, so injury is less likely.
And he'll be able to relax a lot more on defense now, because he's playing with Amen Thompson and other defensive studs...
Whereas at Phoenix he had to carry the defense, so the total opposite of Houston.
Durant shot 53%fg and 43%treys last season, because he's getting better (at shooting) with age.

First off I literally mentioned that he played 75 games two seasons ago in my post. But secondly, dude hasn't played more than 65 games in 7 of the last 8 seasons and now all of a sudden he's guaranteed to despite being another year older just because the Rockets are allegedly "head and shoulders above everyone else?" That makes zero sense he may very well play more than 65 but I think it's way less likely to happen than the opposite

You used the words "guarantee" and "pencil in", not me.
All i did was make a prediction of something that i'm very confident will happen.
And it makes perfect sense, see from my previous post-
"Durant's adapted to his body, becoming mostly a jump shooter, so injury is less likely.
And he'll be able to relax a lot more on defense now, because he's playing with Amen Thompson and other defensive studs...
Whereas at Phoenix he had to carry the defense, so the total opposite of Houston.
Durant shot 53%fg and 43%treys last season, because he's getting better (at shooting) with age."

[Un4given]

I think that Shai, Joker, Luka and Giannis are tier above everyone else and 95% favorites over the field. Assuming all their teams having similar records, I'm going (speaking exclusively about MVP chances, not who is the best player of the bunch)

Luka > Joker > Giannis > Shai

But on the other hand, I can see their teams finishing in exact opposite order so it should be a close race unless some of those teams overachieves.

And if I would have to pick a dark horse, I'm going with Wemby or Biid rather then any option in the poll.