Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, July 28-30

[Randle McMurphy]

If we can find a way to still finish 10 games above .500 and make the playoffs we'll become just the 3rd team in mlb history to do so with a negative run differential

I want to be known as the worst team to ever win a World Series so badly

[COY0607]

I dunno if it’s loss of confidence or fatigue or something else, but Chad Green has becomes completely un-pitchable outside blowouts

He wasn’t this bad pre-all star break. He’s almost a sure fire DFA at this point

[Mehar]

At the end of the day, who cares about run differential? If you want to look at this team's run differential- do so after May 28th.

The reason why this team's run differential is so bad in the first place because they had Bowden Francis throwing stinkers every 5 days for his first 10 starts, and they had a scrub like Lucas pitching due to Scherzer being out in the early part of the year.

[Randle McMurphy]

I dunno if it’s loss of confidence or fatigue or something else, but Chad Green has becomes completely un-pitchable outside blowouts

He wasn’t this bad pre-all star break. He’s almost a sure fire DFA at this point

He’s allowed 14 HRs this season, he’s probably the worst RP I’ve ever seen

[JN]

This team is not "great" enough to avoid some rough stretches to end the year. Every team in MLB has had some really bad 10 game stretches this year at some point. Hopefully this is just a short term rut.

[Randle McMurphy]

At the end of the day, who cares about run differential? If you want to look at this team's run differential- do so after May 28th.

The reason why this team's run differential is so bad in the first place because they had Bowden Francis throwing stinkers every 5 days for his first 10 starts, and they had a scrub like Lucas pitching due to Scherzer being out in the early part of the year.

Run differential is far more predictive of how a team will perform than a team’s actual record. You can’t erase the wins this team has amassed but there’s little reason to think they’ll play at that win percentage going forward. It’s far more likely that they are a true talent .510-.520ish team

[Natural11]

I dunno if it’s loss of confidence or fatigue or something else, but Chad Green has becomes completely un-pitchable outside blowouts

I would argue that he's completely un-pitchable within blowouts as well. If bringing him in is pretty much a lateral of a position player taking the mound, I mean come on. Whether we trade for a reliever or not, he's a waste of a roster spot right now.

[WuTang_OG]

chad green bounced

c ya

[dagger]

Read on Twitter

[Mehar]

The Game 1 Blowout was a blessing in disguise perhaps. When Ali Sanchez (your third catcher) has a better pitching line than Chad Green, even Ross Atkins finally had to make this move (LOL). Wish Green all the best. Maybe he accepts the demotion to the minors, because no team in their right mind will sign him now he is released. Maybe the Yankees, but I even doubt that.

Maybe Green will just take his ball and go home also, as he collects 10.5 million this year along with the 10.5 million he collected last year. Nice retirement fund for Meatball Green. Sad to see him getting shelled out there giving up home runs, when in his prime he was arguably a Top 5 Reliever in MLB.

[vaff87]

At the end of the day, who cares about run differential? If you want to look at this team's run differential- do so after May 28th.

The reason why this team's run differential is so bad in the first place because they had Bowden Francis throwing stinkers every 5 days for his first 10 starts, and they had a scrub like Lucas pitching due to Scherzer being out in the early part of the year.

Run differential is far more predictive of how a team will perform than a team’s actual record. You can’t erase the wins this team has amassed but there’s little reason to think they’ll play at that win percentage going forward. It’s far more likely that they are a true talent .510-.520ish team

Yes, but we’ve seen the flaw in run differential the last three days. Play 3 poor games and you get outscored 37-12. And it’s not like we have some ridiculous unsustainable record in 1 run games: 17-13.

[vaff87]

Another thing worth noting is that our record vs >.500 teams is 36-27. Which is top 3 in the majors.

Brewers are 34-23
Mets are 29-22

So we’ve played more games against >.500 teams than either of them.

[-MetA4-]

The Game 1 Blowout was a blessing in disguise perhaps. When Ali Sanchez (your third catcher) has a better pitching line than Chad Green, even Ross Atkins finally had to make this move (LOL). Wish Green all the best. Maybe he accepts the demotion to the minors, because no team in their right mind will sign him now he is released.

Maybe Green will just take his ball and go home also, as he collects 10.5 million this year along with the 10.5 million he collected last year. Nice retirement fund for Meatball Green. Sad to see him getting shelled out there when in his prime he was arguably a Top 5 Reliever in MLB.

Why are you making it sound like Ross Atkins was reluctant to make this (or any) move? This Jays front office has been aggressive in trades the entire time they have been here. This move took this long to make because if you haven't noticed or have your ears plugged: it is an extreme sellers market, and teams have no reason to not hold onto their trade assets until the last day and let prices build. I love this notion that apparently you can just force another team to trade their players to you whenever its most convenient to your own cause. I mean sure, they could have acquired Dominguez a week ago...for a bigger price than what they just paid. You can't place a gun to anyone's head and force them to make a trade on your own timedframe.

Also, Chad Green has basically only been used in blowouts and mop-up duty for over a month now. No, he would NOT have pitched in any playoff games. There is no scenario where anyone in the Jays front office was secretly waiting and "hoping" that Chad Green was going to rematerialize into a useful bullpen pitcher. His underlying metrics are abysmal and they were well aware of that - but you still need someone to throw out there when you are down by 10, or winning by 8.

[Randle McMurphy]

At the end of the day, who cares about run differential? If you want to look at this team's run differential- do so after May 28th.

The reason why this team's run differential is so bad in the first place because they had Bowden Francis throwing stinkers every 5 days for his first 10 starts, and they had a scrub like Lucas pitching due to Scherzer being out in the early part of the year.

Run differential is far more predictive of how a team will perform than a team’s actual record. You can’t erase the wins this team has amassed but there’s little reason to think they’ll play at that win percentage going forward. It’s far more likely that they are a true talent .510-.520ish team

Yes, but we’ve seen the flaw in run differential the last three days. Play 3 poor games and you get outscored 37-12. And it’s not like we have some ridiculous unsustainable record in 1 run games: 17-13.

Is that really a flaw in run differential as a predictive tool or is it just evidence that our pitching depth is really poor?

[WuTang_OG]

crazy lol

Read on Twitter

[vaff87]

Run differential is far more predictive of how a team will perform than a team’s actual record. You can’t erase the wins this team has amassed but there’s little reason to think they’ll play at that win percentage going forward. It’s far more likely that they are a true talent .510-.520ish team

Yes, but we’ve seen the flaw in run differential the last three days. Play 3 poor games and you get outscored 37-12. And it’s not like we have some ridiculous unsustainable record in 1 run games: 17-13.

Is that really a flaw in run differential as a predictive tool or is it just evidence that our pitching depth is really poor?

To me, it’s just such a small sample. Seems like we go through the occasional slump where things just snowball a bit and the numbers get ugly.

I just did a count. Maybe I made a mistake somewhere, but based on my counting, our record in 5+ run games is 13-17, but our record in 3+ run games is 32-25. So 19-8 in games decided by 3 or 4 runs.

[Randle McMurphy]

It just took returning to Baltimore for this team's clutch hitting to completely evaporate

[Madvillainy2004]

Wagner got 2 pretty easy to hit fastballs there felt like he didn't want to swing at all lol also sucks that we have so many offensive pieces injured because Kirk or Springer in that spot probably scores at least 1.

[greekman]

baltimore's pitcher given up 15er in the last 18ip and after being outscored 27-8 so far in the series they couldn't score a run in bases loaded first inning.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yes, but we’ve seen the flaw in run differential the last three days. Play 3 poor games and you get outscored 37-12. And it’s not like we have some ridiculous unsustainable record in 1 run games: 17-13.

Is that really a flaw in run differential as a predictive tool or is it just evidence that our pitching depth is really poor?

To me, it’s just such a small sample. Seems like we go through the occasional slump where things just snowball a bit and the numbers get ugly.

I just did a count. Maybe I made a mistake somewhere, but based on my counting, our record in 5+ run games is 13-17, but our record in 3+ run games is 32-25. So 19-8 in games decided by 3 or 4 runs.

I'm always a bit wary about any team that has a good close game record. It reflects a good bullpen or clutch hitting in most cases but it also quite often suggests a lot of luck involved too given the nature of baseball.

Also, the same argument you can make about us getting blown out you can make about us blowing teams out. The best teams (like the 2015 Jays) do it far more often than the alternative.