Magic and Bird Plus Minus Numbers

[70sFan]

I'm not going to re-explain it, because you are obviously familiar with my reasons and can go back over them. It is false to say official stats back then 'weren't any better', for the reasons I gave.

Will you treat Squared numbers different now, once he became the official +/- tracker for the league?

[SpreeS]

This is the list of WC pont guards who were starters in 1985

1. F.Lever DEN (2 ALLSTAR 1 ALLNBA)
2. N.Nixon LAC (2 ALLSTAR)
3. R.Green UTA (1 ALLSTAR)
4. J. Moore SAN
5. B.Davis DAL
6. J.Lucas HOU
7. L.Drew KAN
8. G.Henderson SEA
9. K.Macy PHO
10. L.Conner GSW
11. D.Valentive POR

I didnt know that they existed after 7th L.Drew

1. Curry GSW 10 ALLSTARS 8 ALLNBA
2. Doncic DAL 5 ALLSTARS 5 ALLNBA
3. Shai OKC 2 ALLSARS 2 ALLNBA
4. Morant MEM 2 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
5. Fox SAC 1 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
6. Harden LAC 10 ALLSARS 7 ALLNBA
7. Murray DEN
8. Murray NOL 1 ALLSTAR
9. Conley MIN 1 ALLSTAR
10. VanVleet HOU 1 ALLSTAR
11. Russell LAL 1 ALLSTAR
12. Paul SAN 12 ALLSTAR 11 ALLNBA
13. Jones PHO
14. Henderson POR
15. George UTA

Now we can imagine what kind of +/- Magic would have in this era.... 7 ALL STAR's in their peaks. Curry still playing at top level. Harden/Murray would be the TOP3 on Magic list.

[OhayoKD]

I'm not going to re-explain it, because you are obviously familiar with my reasons and can go back over them. It is false to say official stats back then 'weren't any better', for the reasons I gave.

What reasons, as has been well covered by now, they were not vetted:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2387572

[70sFan]

This is the list of WC pont guards who were starters in 1985

1. F.Lever DEN (2 ALLSTAR 1 ALLNBA)
2. N.Nixon LAC (2 ALLSTAR)
3. R.Green UTA (1 ALLSTAR)
4. J. Moore SAN
5. B.Davis DAL
6. J.Lucas HOU
7. L.Drew KAN
8. G.Henderson SEA
9. K.Macy PHO
10. L.Conner GSW
11. D.Valentive POR

I didnt know that they existed after 7th L.Drew

1. Curry GSW 10 ALLSTARS 8 ALLNBA
2. Doncic DAL 5 ALLSTARS 5 ALLNBA
3. Shai OKC 2 ALLSARS 2 ALLNBA
4. Morant MEM 2 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
5. Fox SAC 1 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
6. Harden LAC 10 ALLSARS 7 ALLNBA
7. Murray DEN
8. Murray NOL 1 ALLSTAR
9. Conley MIN 1 ALLSTAR
10. VanVleet HOU 1 ALLSTAR
11. Russell LAL 1 ALLSTAR
12. Paul SAN 12 ALLSTAR 11 ALLNBA
13. Jones PHO
14. Henderson POR
15. George UTA

Now we can imagine what kind of +/- Magic would have in this era.... 7 ALL STAR's in their peaks. Curry still playing at top level. Harden/Murray would be the TOP3 on Magic list.

If you don't know that Gerald Henderson existed, then that's your problem...

[SpreeS]

This is the list of WC pont guards who were starters in 1985

1. F.Lever DEN (2 ALLSTAR 1 ALLNBA)
2. N.Nixon LAC (2 ALLSTAR)
3. R.Green UTA (1 ALLSTAR)
4. J. Moore SAN
5. B.Davis DAL
6. J.Lucas HOU
7. L.Drew KAN
8. G.Henderson SEA
9. K.Macy PHO
10. L.Conner GSW
11. D.Valentive POR

I didnt know that they existed after 7th L.Drew

1. Curry GSW 10 ALLSTARS 8 ALLNBA
2. Doncic DAL 5 ALLSTARS 5 ALLNBA
3. Shai OKC 2 ALLSARS 2 ALLNBA
4. Morant MEM 2 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
5. Fox SAC 1 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
6. Harden LAC 10 ALLSARS 7 ALLNBA
7. Murray DEN
8. Murray NOL 1 ALLSTAR
9. Conley MIN 1 ALLSTAR
10. VanVleet HOU 1 ALLSTAR
11. Russell LAL 1 ALLSTAR
12. Paul SAN 12 ALLSTAR 11 ALLNBA
13. Jones PHO
14. Henderson POR
15. George UTA

Now we can imagine what kind of +/- Magic would have in this era.... 7 ALL STAR's in their peaks. Curry still playing at top level. Harden/Murray would be the TOP3 on Magic list.

If you don't know that Gerald Henderson existed, then that's your problem...

Yes its my bad, 3 time champion and have significant role on champ team in BOS. But this doesn't change anything what I wrote.

[70sFan]

This is the list of WC pont guards who were starters in 1985

1. F.Lever DEN (2 ALLSTAR 1 ALLNBA)
2. N.Nixon LAC (2 ALLSTAR)
3. R.Green UTA (1 ALLSTAR)
4. J. Moore SAN
5. B.Davis DAL
6. J.Lucas HOU
7. L.Drew KAN
8. G.Henderson SEA
9. K.Macy PHO
10. L.Conner GSW
11. D.Valentive POR

I didnt know that they existed after 7th L.Drew

1. Curry GSW 10 ALLSTARS 8 ALLNBA
2. Doncic DAL 5 ALLSTARS 5 ALLNBA
3. Shai OKC 2 ALLSARS 2 ALLNBA
4. Morant MEM 2 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
5. Fox SAC 1 ALLSARS 1 ALLNBA
6. Harden LAC 10 ALLSARS 7 ALLNBA
7. Murray DEN
8. Murray NOL 1 ALLSTAR
9. Conley MIN 1 ALLSTAR
10. VanVleet HOU 1 ALLSTAR
11. Russell LAL 1 ALLSTAR
12. Paul SAN 12 ALLSTAR 11 ALLNBA
13. Jones PHO
14. Henderson POR
15. George UTA

Now we can imagine what kind of +/- Magic would have in this era.... 7 ALL STAR's in their peaks. Curry still playing at top level. Harden/Murray would be the TOP3 on Magic list.

If you don't know that Gerald Henderson existed, then that's your problem...

Yes its my bad, 3 time champion and have significant role on champ team in BOS. But this doesn't change anything what I wrote.

To some degree it does, you are more familiar with the recent names and that's why you view the pool as significantly deeper. It's true that 2025 West is deeper on PGs than 1985, but I don't think recognition is a valid argument.

I also don't know why PG talent should be relevant in discussion about Magic +/- numbers.

[One_and_Done]

I'm not going to re-explain it, because you are obviously familiar with my reasons and can go back over them. It is false to say official stats back then 'weren't any better', for the reasons I gave.

What reasons, as has been well covered by now, they were not vetted:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2387572

That's not the thread, though a quick search didn't find it either.

To summarise; it's about the process.

In say 1970, they had different scorekeepers in every city, who were employed by teams who could fire them at the drop of a hat. If a team was rigging the stats for the home team for example, it would be easy to see by comparing home stats vs away stats. Instead we almost never see that; the stats tend to be consistent across the board. This strongly suggests the stats are done accurately and in good faith.

This could also by compared to the wisdom of the crowd, or how sources work in ancient history. When you have 5 different historians in different parts of the world all saying the same thing, and there's no way they could have interacted, that's good evidence for the fact that said thing actually happened.

Sure, the tapes are mostly gone now, but at the time they weren't; the NBA could check the tape and fire you. Is a lowly scorekeeper going to risk his job to fiddle scores? You'd also need an elaborate conspiracy of all scorekeepers across all teams, even though they'd never met. It's too absurd.

This stuff is completely different. We don't know what games they used, what the methodology was, etc. It's impossible to audit, or compare to see what other scorekeepers came up with using the same samples. It's a black box, done by 1 company (and maybe just 1guy). It doesn't compare.

[SpreeS]

If you don't know that Gerald Henderson existed, then that's your problem...

Yes its my bad, 3 time champion and have significant role on champ team in BOS. But this doesn't change anything what I wrote.

To some degree it does, you are more familiar with the recent names and that's why you view the pool as significantly deeper. It's true that 2025 West is deeper on PGs than 1985, but I don't think recognition is a valid argument.

I also don't know why PG talent should be relevant in discussion about Magic +/- numbers.

Yes, Its relevant when you are playing 18 time in RS against opponents like

9. K.Macy PHO
10. L.Conner GSW
11. D.Valentive POR

1st PO round against PHO

starters

C Alvan Adams
PF Charles Pittman
SF Mike Sanders
SG Jay Humphries (Rookie)
PG Kyle Macy

[70sFan]

Yes its my bad, 3 time champion and have significant role on champ team in BOS. But this doesn't change anything what I wrote.

To some degree it does, you are more familiar with the recent names and that's why you view the pool as significantly deeper. It's true that 2025 West is deeper on PGs than 1985, but I don't think recognition is a valid argument.

I also don't know why PG talent should be relevant in discussion about Magic +/- numbers.

Yes, Its relevant when you are playing 18 time in RS against opponents like

9. K.Macy PHO
10. L.Conner GSW
11. D.Valentive POR

1st PO round against PHO

starters

C Alvan Adams
PF Charles Pittman
SF Mike Sanders
SG Jay Humphries (Rookie)
PG Kyle Macy

It's relevant when you play against weak or good teams, not specific matchups at you position. Especially in Magic's case, when Johnson rarely guarded and was guarded by PGs.

[OhayoKD]

I'm not going to re-explain it, because you are obviously familiar with my reasons and can go back over them. It is false to say official stats back then 'weren't any better', for the reasons I gave.

What reasons, as has been well covered by now, they were not vetted:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2387572

That's not the thread, though a quick search didn't find it either.

It's the thread related to the expose that "officially working with the nba" doesn't mean anything for stats for that time period...
https://sports.yahoo.com/a-closer-look-at-michael-jordans-1988-dpoy-award-raises-questions-about-its-validity-has-lebron-james-been-chasing-a-ghost-140452567.html
...paticularly because those scorekeepers would inflate numbers for their teams, especially if that team was based in Chicago.

This could also by compared to the wisdom of the crowd, or how sources work in ancient history. When you have 5 different historians in different parts of the world all saying the same thing, and there's no way they could have interacted, that's good evidence for the fact that said thing actually happened.

And yet it took 50 years for people to realise the box-score was cooked and 50 years on the nba's official youtube has a video titled "10 steals!" for a clip where at most, 6 are visible.

By the account of Chicago's scorekeeper, you were expected and encouraged to miscount numbers for your team in stat-keeper conferences, and we can accordingly see gigantic home/away gulfs in measures to go along with tape-tracking(now done by multiple sources) showing stats inflated by more than a factor of 2.

Squared did plenty on their way out to sully their own credibility, but them not (yet) having their on/off released "officially" is not a serious argument

[Owly]

Yes its my bad, 3 time champion and have significant role on champ team in BOS. But this doesn't change anything what I wrote.

To some degree it does, you are more familiar with the recent names and that's why you view the pool as significantly deeper. It's true that 2025 West is deeper on PGs than 1985, but I don't think recognition is a valid argument.

I also don't know why PG talent should be relevant in discussion about Magic +/- numbers.

Yes, Its relevant when you are playing 18 time in RS against opponents like

9. K.Macy PHO
10. L.Conner GSW
11. D.Valentive POR

Never heard of "Valentive" either. Seriously though ... with regard to the "heard of" argument

As far as Valentine, Connor and Macy ... that doesn't look like an awful group for low end starters. Solid defensive reps. If one hasn't heard of them and they're already using that to say the players are bad ... I'd suggest they've got a poor argument. You could argue for some set of players being bad without having heard of anyone and just running numbers. You could do more qualitative stuff and read up what you can on them ... if it were a 12th man or a guy in the league for one year "I don't think I've heard of them ..." it wouldn't be a great gauge but maybe it at least might mean they are obscure. "I haven't heard of these starters" isn't great line of debate.

And I'm open to the idea that the 80s were overrated. I just don't think what was put was it.


As for as the specifics here of playing them 18 games ...
1) How much does "matchup" overall quality (even if done by something far better than name-recognition) matter to plus-minus. Isn't it team quality that would matter more. And starter versus-bench and how much they match rotation patterns with the team in question ... . I'd think a more direct measure like a box-aggregate would benefit more from a notional positional weakness.
2) In terms of team level schedule balance, the Lakers did play some of the easiest schedules ever - a bit of that for all teams is not having to go against themselves though Lakers RS for the early-to-mid 80s is more good than amazing - and even without neutralizing for no-team has to play itself that meant their average opponents was at worst a little over 1 point worse than league average (-1.03 to 2dp in 1988). It's not absolutely nothing ... I guess at the margin you could argue if teams are bad it's probably because of starter-like players and so LA are likely in those extra games to run up an advantage and have more garbage time or rubber-banding where non-core units aren't incentivized to maximize points diff. But in the noise of this type of measure that a team might have a most of a point per game advantage (and again this is slightly too generous as in "balanced" schedule teams still don't play themselves) probably isn't a huge deal.
3) As has been noted - even if one takes generally (though not necessarily matchup-specific) poor players as (a) accurate in this case and (b) boosting of +/- and similar surface level stats - Magic's size meant he wasn't purely matched up against point guards.

[Djoker]

So I've been watching playoff games of the Showtime Lakers and tracking Magic/Kareem plus minus.

Here is what we have so far. Basically 1980 WCF + Finals and 1981 1st Round for both players plus the whole 1985 postseason (minus one 1st round game) and the 1991 Finals for Magic. Note that the 1985 playoffs were tracked by Squared2020.

Magic Johnson

Spoiler:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Spoiler:

Link to the full spreadsheet is here.

[tsherkin]

So I've been watching playoff games of the Showtime Lakers and tracking Magic/Kareem plus minus.

Here is what we have so far. Basically 1980 WCF + Finals and 1981 1st Round for both players plus the whole 1985 postseason (minus one 1st round game) and the 1991 Finals for Magic. Note that the 1985 playoffs were tracked by Squared2020.

Magic Johnson

Spoiler:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Spoiler:

Link to the full spreadsheet is here.

Thanks for all the work, as always

[AEnigma]

Thank you for doing 1981 in particular. Close three game series means bad bench luck could have been one of the deciding swings, and it looks like that was indeed a significant part of the issue. The 1990 Suns series interests me for similar reasons.

As a note, it strikes me as an odd choice to just exclude 1980 Finals Game 6 from Kareem’s “on/off”. And for comparative purposes, I think per 48 is much more stable to calculate and therefore more useful than these attempted BBR pace calculations. Doing some quick math (so might be an error somewhere)…

Kareem (total across three series and fourteen games): +6.1 on per 48, -6.7 off per 48, +12.8 on/off

Magic (total): +8.9 on per 48, -13.7 off per 48, +22.6 on/off

Interesting results considering the Lakers ostensibly had tolerable substitutes for Magic in most of those series.

[DraymondGold]

So I've been watching playoff games of the Showtime Lakers and tracking Magic/Kareem plus minus.

Here is what we have so far. Basically 1980 WCF + Finals and 1981 1st Round for both players plus the whole 1985 postseason (minus one 1st round game) and the 1991 Finals for Magic. Note that the 1985 playoffs were tracked by Squared2020.

Magic Johnson

Spoiler:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Spoiler:

Link to the full spreadsheet is here.

Fantastic stuff Djoker. If I'm not mistaken, I think this is our first plus minus data for prime playoff Kareem. Wow!

I also wasn't aware we had 1985 playoffs for Magic (all but Round.Game 1.3).

It would be helpful to calculate full-playoff plus minus, since we trust larger samples. Using per 48 minutes (I think your On-off net is a rating and so uses pace rathe than minutes as the time unit?), we get:
-1980 Kareem: +7.15 On, +24.40 (last two rounds)
-1980 Magic: +8.84 On, +28.18 (last two rounds)
-1985 Magic: +15.98 On, +25.03 On-Off (all but 1 game)

It's probably too early to compare just single playoff plus minus (too small, too noisy), but just to contextualize, here are the best On-Off runs in order for some GOAT/all-time candidates that are over +20 on-off
-LeBron: 2021 +38.89 On-off, 2017 +33.38 On-off, 2010 +25.77 On-off, 2012 +22.91 On-Off
-Jordan: 1985 +75.95 On-off, 1987 +58.5 On-off, 1986 +43.06 On-Off, 1990 +30.1 On-off, 1989 +24.3, 1997 +21.9
-Duncan: 2001 +33.54 On-off, 2003 +27.0 On-off, 2002 +20.77 On-off (only checked 01-07)
-Shaq: 2000 +32.38 On-off, 2004 +28.25 On-off, 2002 +23.30 On-off (only checked 98-04)
-Curry: 2021 +63.44 On-off, 2014 +41.29 On-off, 2013 +30.56 On-off, 2017 +22.92

A few of the best runs are definitely outliers from small sample size. The 1980 sample is still too small to really compare fairly too. And to get a complete picture, we probably want to compare both (relative) Plus minus / On and the on-off.

But still, very respectable numbers for Magic and Kareem. Magic's 1985 run is particularly impressive. One other caveat -- in Squared2020's lineup data, it seemed the Lakers played their starters together and their bench lineups together to an unusual extent, even when just comparing to contemporaries in era. That could boost On and On-off if the Lakers do keep the rotations of their best players aligned more than the competition.

One other aside: I think it might be possible to get the playoff plus minus for the 1986 Celtics. I found all their games on youtube recently. Not sure if they're all still up, but we might be able to get the plus minus breakdown for peak Bird and for one of the GOAT teams (is Bird the biggest impactor compared to McHale, Walton, or Parish?). Do you have any interest / time / capability in tracking these Djoker? Here are the games

Spoiler:

1986 Celtics Games

1.1

Watch on YouTube

1.2

Watch on YouTube

1.3

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

note: also check the Jordan plus minus thread for these 1986 games

2.1[youtube] https://youtu.be/GVnxMVObLqY?si=FSOYarQWSTET3BBo [/youtube]

2.2 [youtube]https://youtu.be/3VlXfJKOZd4?si=cEQhIZLiUZPbrmyZ[/youtube]
or [youtube]https://youtu.be/s6lzLv-kD8Q?si=V0jykm64jlAZBs9O [/youtube]

2.3 [youtube]https://youtu.be/-vXMu7Ea-RE?si=-KctSGs3u4ZzbwRU [/youtube]

2.4 [youtube]https://youtu.be/3MAs1byJITk?si=jK5eTrkFa77s8HlJ [/youtube]

2.5

Watch on YouTube

3.1

Watch on YouTube

3.2

Watch on YouTube

3.3

Watch on YouTube

3.4

Watch on YouTube

4.1

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

4.2 [youtube]https://youtu.be/yrSjJh1ecqI?si=bDhV9MdSjd0eeHhM [/youtube]

4.3 [youtube]https://youtu.be/-agvBMoYH5I?si=1VIPTNZ5Dc3PfhEg [/youtube]

4.4 [youtube]https://youtu.be/BznLPIFjixI?si=BYp1fMDTQjRu40Um [/youtube]
or

Watch on YouTube

4.5 [youtube]https://youtu.be/sw7b1hEcY8E?si=lRzVf0_9Oa23w1sy [/youtube]
or

Watch on YouTube

4.6

Watch on YouTube

I've tracked game 1 but otherwise haven't had the time to do more.

Here's game 1:

Spoiler:

Players to track: Bird, Hakeem, McHale, Walton.
Bird #33 44 mins, Hakeem #34 38 mins, McHale #32 40, Walton #5 18

1st Quarter.
15.40. 22-14 Celtics. Walton in. (for Parish)
18:25. 24-22 Celtics. timeout
23:27. 34-28 Celtics. end

2nd.
Same stars are in.
26:00. 38-28 Celtics. restarts 27:30. McHale out.
28:45. 38-28 Celtics. Bird out, McHale in.
29:55. 38-30 Celtics. Bird back in, Walton out (Parish back in).
45:40. Hakeem out. 59-57 Celtics.
47:10. 61-59. End of 2nd. Celtics

3rd.
47:40. Hakeem back. 61-59 Celtics.
1:00:10. Walton in (Parish out). 77-72 Celtics.
1:01:43. Hakeem out 5 fouls. 79-72 Celtics.
1:06:40. Bird out. 89-76 Celtics .
1:11:30. 91-76. End of 3rd.

4th.
1:12:30. Hakeem back, Bird back, McHale out. 91-76 Celtics.
1:22:40. McHale back, Walton out. 105-87.
1:28:30. 108-91 Celtics. Hakeem out.
1:33:20. 112-98 Celtics. Bird out.

Final score: 112-100 Celtics.

Plus minus:

Bird: Out: -2 +2 -2 = -2 total. In: +12 - -2 = +14 total.
McHale: Out: +8 -3 -6 = -1 total. In: +13 total.
Walton: Out: 0 + 3 = +3 total. In: + 9 total.
Hakeem: Out: -8 + 4 = -4 total. In: -12 - -4 = -8 total.

[Djoker]

Thank you for doing 1981 in particular. Close three game series means bad bench luck could have been one of the deciding swings, and it looks like that was indeed a significant part of the issue. The 1990 Suns series interests me for similar reasons.

As a note, it strikes me as an odd choice to just exclude 1980 Finals Game 6 from Kareem’s “on/off”. And for comparative purposes, I think per 48 is much more stable to calculate and therefore more useful than these attempted BBR pace calculations. Doing some quick math (so might be an error somewhere)…

Kareem (total across three series and fourteen games): +6.1 on per 48, -6.7 off per 48, +12.8 on/off

Magic (total): +8.9 on per 48, -13.7 off per 48, +22.6 on/off

Interesting results considering the Lakers ostensibly had tolerable substitutes for Magic in most of those series.

I listed the total minutes ON and minutes OFF on the spreadsheet so you can calculate per 48 pretty quickly if you wish.

Why would per 48 be more stable though?!?

[Djoker]

Fantastic stuff Djoker. If I'm not mistaken, I think this is our first plus minus data for prime playoff Kareem. Wow!

I also wasn't aware we had 1985 playoffs for Magic (all but Round.Game 1.3).

It would be helpful to calculate full-playoff plus minus, since we trust larger samples. Using per 48 minutes (I think your On-off net is a rating and so uses pace rathe than minutes as the time unit?), we get:
-1980 Kareem: +7.15 On, +24.40 (last two rounds)
-1980 Magic: +8.84 On, +28.18 (last two rounds)
-1985 Magic: +15.98 On, +25.03 On-Off (all but 1 game)

It's probably too early to compare just single playoff plus minus (too small, too noisy), but just to contextualize, here are the best On-Off runs in order for some GOAT/all-time candidates that are over +20 on-off
-LeBron: 2021 +38.89 On-off, 2017 +33.38 On-off, 2010 +25.77 On-off, 2012 +22.91 On-Off
-Jordan: 1985 +75.95 On-off, 1987 +58.5 On-off, 1986 +43.06 On-Off, 1990 +30.1 On-off, 1989 +24.3, 1997 +21.9
-Duncan: 2001 +33.54 On-off, 2003 +27.0 On-off, 2002 +20.77 On-off (only checked 01-07)
-Shaq: 2000 +32.38 On-off, 2004 +28.25 On-off, 2002 +23.30 On-off (only checked 98-04)
-Curry: 2021 +63.44 On-off, 2014 +41.29 On-off, 2013 +30.56 On-off, 2017 +22.92

A few of the best runs are definitely outliers from small sample size. The 1980 sample is still too small to really compare fairly too. And to get a complete picture, we probably want to compare both (relative) Plus minus / On and the on-off.

But still, very respectable numbers for Magic and Kareem. Magic's 1985 run is particularly impressive. One other caveat -- in Squared2020's lineup data, it seemed the Lakers played their starters together and their bench lineups together to an unusual extent, even when just comparing to contemporaries in era. That could boost On and On-off if the Lakers do keep the rotations of their best players aligned more than the competition.

One other aside: I think it might be possible to get the playoff plus minus for the 1986 Celtics. I found all their games on youtube recently. Not sure if they're all still up, but we might be able to get the plus minus breakdown for peak Bird and for one of the GOAT teams (is Bird the biggest impactor compared to McHale, Walton, or Parish?). Do you have any interest / time / capability in tracking these Djoker? Here are the games

Spoiler:

1986 Celtics Games

1.1

Watch on YouTube

1.2

Watch on YouTube

1.3

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

note: also check the Jordan plus minus thread for these 1986 games

2.1[youtube] https://youtu.be/GVnxMVObLqY?si=FSOYarQWSTET3BBo [/youtube]

2.2 [youtube]https://youtu.be/3VlXfJKOZd4?si=cEQhIZLiUZPbrmyZ[/youtube]
or [youtube]https://youtu.be/s6lzLv-kD8Q?si=V0jykm64jlAZBs9O [/youtube]

2.3 [youtube]https://youtu.be/-vXMu7Ea-RE?si=-KctSGs3u4ZzbwRU [/youtube]

2.4 [youtube]https://youtu.be/3MAs1byJITk?si=jK5eTrkFa77s8HlJ [/youtube]

2.5

Watch on YouTube

3.1

Watch on YouTube

3.2

Watch on YouTube

3.3

Watch on YouTube

3.4

Watch on YouTube

4.1

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

4.2 [youtube]https://youtu.be/yrSjJh1ecqI?si=bDhV9MdSjd0eeHhM [/youtube]

4.3 [youtube]https://youtu.be/-agvBMoYH5I?si=1VIPTNZ5Dc3PfhEg [/youtube]

4.4 [youtube]https://youtu.be/BznLPIFjixI?si=BYp1fMDTQjRu40Um [/youtube]
or

Watch on YouTube

4.5 [youtube]https://youtu.be/sw7b1hEcY8E?si=lRzVf0_9Oa23w1sy [/youtube]
or

Watch on YouTube

4.6

Watch on YouTube

I've tracked game 1 but otherwise haven't had the time to do more.

Here's game 1:

Spoiler:

Players to track: Bird, Hakeem, McHale, Walton.
Bird #33 44 mins, Hakeem #34 38 mins, McHale #32 40, Walton #5 18

1st Quarter.
15.40. 22-14 Celtics. Walton in. (for Parish)
18:25. 24-22 Celtics. timeout
23:27. 34-28 Celtics. end

2nd.
Same stars are in.
26:00. 38-28 Celtics. restarts 27:30. McHale out.
28:45. 38-28 Celtics. Bird out, McHale in.
29:55. 38-30 Celtics. Bird back in, Walton out (Parish back in).
45:40. Hakeem out. 59-57 Celtics.
47:10. 61-59. End of 2nd. Celtics

3rd.
47:40. Hakeem back. 61-59 Celtics.
1:00:10. Walton in (Parish out). 77-72 Celtics.
1:01:43. Hakeem out 5 fouls. 79-72 Celtics.
1:06:40. Bird out. 89-76 Celtics .
1:11:30. 91-76. End of 3rd.

4th.
1:12:30. Hakeem back, Bird back, McHale out. 91-76 Celtics.
1:22:40. McHale back, Walton out. 105-87.
1:28:30. 108-91 Celtics. Hakeem out.
1:33:20. 112-98 Celtics. Bird out.

Final score: 112-100 Celtics.

Plus minus:

Bird: Out: -2 +2 -2 = -2 total. In: +12 - -2 = +14 total.
McHale: Out: +8 -3 -6 = -1 total. In: +13 total.
Walton: Out: 0 + 3 = +3 total. In: + 9 total.
Hakeem: Out: -8 + 4 = -4 total. In: -12 - -4 = -8 total.

I think I'll stick with Magic/Kareem until I do as much as I can then move on to Bird. I actually tracked Bird in the 1st round of 1986 when I was doing Jordan but didn't do any other rounds. Thanks for doing Game 1 of the Finals. Please do more if you can. By the way for Hakeem, I already have the 1994 and 1995 Finals so it would be nice to have his whole Finals career. Eventually I'll also do Hakeem.

[70sFan]

Fantastic work, I hope to see 1983 playoffs numbers from Showtime duo at some point. Always felt that it was the turning point in their dynamics, so it would be interesting to see the data.

I always appreciate your work, thank you very much!

[AEnigma]

Thank you for doing 1981 in particular. Close three game series means bad bench luck could have been one of the deciding swings, and it looks like that was indeed a significant part of the issue. The 1990 Suns series interests me for similar reasons.

As a note, it strikes me as an odd choice to just exclude 1980 Finals Game 6 from Kareem’s “on/off”. And for comparative purposes, I think per 48 is much more stable to calculate and therefore more useful than these attempted BBR pace calculations. Doing some quick math (so might be an error somewhere)…

Kareem (total across three series and fourteen games): +6.1 on per 48, -6.7 off per 48, +12.8 on/off

Magic (total): +8.9 on per 48, -13.7 off per 48, +22.6 on/off

Interesting results considering the Lakers ostensibly had tolerable substitutes for Magic in most of those series.

I listed the total minutes ON and minutes OFF on the spreadsheet so you can calculate per 48 pretty quickly if you wish.

Why would per 48 be more stable though?!?

We have discussed this previously, but your approach does not actually match the values BBR gives in its play-by-play tabs — and I say that not to imply you need to be doing something different with your math so much as that whatever BBR’s formula is produces evidently different results. Couple that with pre-1997 BBR pace estimates being less accurate, pace estimates being inconsistent depending on the page you are checking, small variations in calculated pace potentially compounding across series, etc., and it seems like a lot of extra work for something ultimately less accurate and comparatively useful than just running plus/minus per 48. It is fine comparing among players for whom you have done this process, and I see the value there if you want some calculation for Magic’s on-court offensive rating next to Jordan’s on-court offensive rating, but otherwise it feels like it muddies the issue relative to using per 48 and just acknowledging pace differences exist.

[DraymondGold]

Fantastic stuff Djoker. If I'm not mistaken, I think this is our first plus minus data for prime playoff Kareem. Wow!

I also wasn't aware we had 1985 playoffs for Magic (all but Round.Game 1.3).

It would be helpful to calculate full-playoff plus minus, since we trust larger samples. Using per 48 minutes (I think your On-off net is a rating and so uses pace rathe than minutes as the time unit?), we get:
-1980 Kareem: +7.15 On, +24.40 (last two rounds)
-1980 Magic: +8.84 On, +28.18 (last two rounds)
-1985 Magic: +15.98 On, +25.03 On-Off (all but 1 game)

It's probably too early to compare just single playoff plus minus (too small, too noisy), but just to contextualize, here are the best On-Off runs in order for some GOAT/all-time candidates that are over +20 on-off
-LeBron: 2021 +38.89 On-off, 2017 +33.38 On-off, 2010 +25.77 On-off, 2012 +22.91 On-Off
-Jordan: 1985 +75.95 On-off, 1987 +58.5 On-off, 1986 +43.06 On-Off, 1990 +30.1 On-off, 1989 +24.3, 1997 +21.9
-Duncan: 2001 +33.54 On-off, 2003 +27.0 On-off, 2002 +20.77 On-off (only checked 01-07)
-Shaq: 2000 +32.38 On-off, 2004 +28.25 On-off, 2002 +23.30 On-off (only checked 98-04)
-Curry: 2021 +63.44 On-off, 2014 +41.29 On-off, 2013 +30.56 On-off, 2017 +22.92

A few of the best runs are definitely outliers from small sample size. The 1980 sample is still too small to really compare fairly too. And to get a complete picture, we probably want to compare both (relative) Plus minus / On and the on-off.

But still, very respectable numbers for Magic and Kareem. Magic's 1985 run is particularly impressive. One other caveat -- in Squared2020's lineup data, it seemed the Lakers played their starters together and their bench lineups together to an unusual extent, even when just comparing to contemporaries in era. That could boost On and On-off if the Lakers do keep the rotations of their best players aligned more than the competition.

One other aside: I think it might be possible to get the playoff plus minus for the 1986 Celtics. I found all their games on youtube recently. Not sure if they're all still up, but we might be able to get the plus minus breakdown for peak Bird and for one of the GOAT teams (is Bird the biggest impactor compared to McHale, Walton, or Parish?). Do you have any interest / time / capability in tracking these Djoker? Here are the games

Spoiler:

1986 Celtics Games

1.1

Watch on YouTube

1.2

Watch on YouTube

1.3

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

note: also check the Jordan plus minus thread for these 1986 games

2.1[youtube] https://youtu.be/GVnxMVObLqY?si=FSOYarQWSTET3BBo [/youtube]

2.2 [youtube]https://youtu.be/3VlXfJKOZd4?si=cEQhIZLiUZPbrmyZ[/youtube]
or [youtube]https://youtu.be/s6lzLv-kD8Q?si=V0jykm64jlAZBs9O [/youtube]

2.3 [youtube]https://youtu.be/-vXMu7Ea-RE?si=-KctSGs3u4ZzbwRU [/youtube]

2.4 [youtube]https://youtu.be/3MAs1byJITk?si=jK5eTrkFa77s8HlJ [/youtube]

2.5

Watch on YouTube

3.1

Watch on YouTube

3.2

Watch on YouTube

3.3

Watch on YouTube

3.4

Watch on YouTube

4.1

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

or

Watch on YouTube

4.2 [youtube]https://youtu.be/yrSjJh1ecqI?si=bDhV9MdSjd0eeHhM [/youtube]

4.3 [youtube]https://youtu.be/-agvBMoYH5I?si=1VIPTNZ5Dc3PfhEg [/youtube]

4.4 [youtube]https://youtu.be/BznLPIFjixI?si=BYp1fMDTQjRu40Um [/youtube]
or

Watch on YouTube

4.5 [youtube]https://youtu.be/sw7b1hEcY8E?si=lRzVf0_9Oa23w1sy [/youtube]
or

Watch on YouTube

4.6

Watch on YouTube

I've tracked game 1 but otherwise haven't had the time to do more.

Here's game 1:

Spoiler:

Players to track: Bird, Hakeem, McHale, Walton.
Bird #33 44 mins, Hakeem #34 38 mins, McHale #32 40, Walton #5 18

1st Quarter.
15.40. 22-14 Celtics. Walton in. (for Parish)
18:25. 24-22 Celtics. timeout
23:27. 34-28 Celtics. end

2nd.
Same stars are in.
26:00. 38-28 Celtics. restarts 27:30. McHale out.
28:45. 38-28 Celtics. Bird out, McHale in.
29:55. 38-30 Celtics. Bird back in, Walton out (Parish back in).
45:40. Hakeem out. 59-57 Celtics.
47:10. 61-59. End of 2nd. Celtics

3rd.
47:40. Hakeem back. 61-59 Celtics.
1:00:10. Walton in (Parish out). 77-72 Celtics.
1:01:43. Hakeem out 5 fouls. 79-72 Celtics.
1:06:40. Bird out. 89-76 Celtics .
1:11:30. 91-76. End of 3rd.

4th.
1:12:30. Hakeem back, Bird back, McHale out. 91-76 Celtics.
1:22:40. McHale back, Walton out. 105-87.
1:28:30. 108-91 Celtics. Hakeem out.
1:33:20. 112-98 Celtics. Bird out.

Final score: 112-100 Celtics.

Plus minus:

Bird: Out: -2 +2 -2 = -2 total. In: +12 - -2 = +14 total.
McHale: Out: +8 -3 -6 = -1 total. In: +13 total.
Walton: Out: 0 + 3 = +3 total. In: + 9 total.
Hakeem: Out: -8 + 4 = -4 total. In: -12 - -4 = -8 total.

I think I'll stick with Magic/Kareem until I do as much as I can then move on to Bird. I actually tracked Bird in the 1st round of 1986 when I was doing Jordan but didn't do any other rounds. Thanks for doing Game 1 of the Finals. Please do more if you can. By the way for Hakeem, I already have the 1994 and 1995 Finals so it would be nice to have his whole Finals career. Eventually I'll also do Hakeem.

More Magic and Kareem are great too! Figured it was a long shot, but thought it was still worth mentioning -- plus having the games in one spot might be helpful for later use.

Can you point me to the Bird 1st round data?