Likelihood of player-specific improvements over last season

[sco]

Since this is my thread, I'm setting the improvement bars for guys (using my best, but flawed, guess at what might be equally achievable for the guys listed on the poll. Here are the levels I'm looking for.

Coby playing the whole season at the level post ASG: I.E. 24.5ppg and getting to the line 6 time per game (vs. 18ppg and 3.5 ff's before that)

Giddey playing the whole season at the level post ASG: I.E. 21ppg/10.7rb/9.3ast/2.3stocks shooting above 38% from 3 (vs. 12.2/7.1/6.4 34% 3pt% before)

Matas averaging better than 16ppg for the season shooting better than 38% from 3

Vuc averaging 40% 3pt% for the season

Feel free to share your desired improvement bars here too!

[MGB8]

Matas minus the 38% from 3 is likely probably more likely than not. The one game he played over 30 minutes (33 or so) he got 18 pts.

The 38% is impossible to tell. Probably less likely than not, but close.

The rest are unlikely.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

Coby - 30%. I would love to be wrong. I'm hurt because I thought the improvement was so real and sustainable prior to the play in game. That was so depressing. I think his ability to get to the line with carry over though.

Giddey - 80%. Zach was all that was in his way. I think the jumper will keep improving. He works hard.

Matas - 100%. He has great confidence and now he's jacked too.

Vuc- I hope one day I forget he ever existed.

[MrSparkle]

Matas projects to be the best player on the roster, eventually. His potential to lose. I thought Billy iced him way too long last year. If he’s got more minutes off the bat, that alone will make his stats jump tremendously. 16 ppg is lofty but reasonable.

I’m also prepared for the Bulls sophomore slump. Chicago sports don’t get nice things more than once a century.

Giddey is kinda the stablest and best player… but the 3P% was unsustainable.

[GoBlue72391]

Well it's pretty damn rare that a player makes a star jump in his 7th season, so I'd say the odds of Coby sustaining that level of play is like 15% at most.

Giddey's level of play, if sustainable, is borderline superstar, so maybe 25% at best.

Matas reaching that threshold I'd put at 45%. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 12-14 PPG this season before he makes a more notable jump in year 3.

Vuc, I don't care enough to speculate. He's hopefully not in our long term plans.

[kodo]

At 24.5 ppg, Coby would be a top 10 player in the league and a no debate max player. The other guards at 24.5 are Steph Curry & Lillard.

I think everything is unlikely, but I think Giddey probably comes the closest with less scoring because the situation for his change, he's the lead PG and he plays starter minutes and he gets touches, all carry into next season. Coby had the ball and the minutes the same pre & post trade, so it's more likely to be more of a hot streak. Plus Coby is older, we've seen more data on him. Giddey making gains at 22 is a bit more normal.

Matas is an 80% assisted player, and 97% assisted on 3s. It's harder for guys like that who are purely catching assists & finishing to double their PPG like that. Big gains usually come from guys who create on ball, and those guys getting more minutes. If he gets crazy minutes I guess it's possible, but we'd have to DNP PWill & Terry & Phillips entirely and Okoro will also play some 4.

[jnrjr79]

At 24.5 ppg, Coby would be a top 10 player in the league and a no debate max player. The other guards at 24.5 are Steph Curry & Lillard.

I think everything is unlikely, but I think Giddey probably comes the closest with less scoring because the situation for his change, he's the lead PG and he plays starter minutes and he gets touches, all carry into next season. Coby had the ball and the minutes the same pre & post trade, so it's more likely to be more of a hot streak. Plus Coby is older, we've seen more data on him. Giddey making gains at 22 is a bit more normal.

Matas is an 80% assisted player, and 97% assisted on 3s. It's harder for guys like that who are purely catching assists & finishing to double their PPG like that. Big gains usually come from guys who create on ball, and those guys getting more minutes. If he gets crazy minutes I guess it's possible, but we'd have to DNP PWill & Terry & Phillips entirely and Okoro will also play some 4.

24.5 would have tied him last year with Steph for 11th, so I don’t think that would make him a top 10 player given his lack of contributions other than scoring, but I agree it probably makes him a max guy.

[dougthonus]

Of the listed things, I think Vuc shooting over 40% from 3 is the most likely to happen only because I think Coby/Giddey have almost no chance of that happening, and Matas a pretty slim chance. Vuc will probably suck whether he hits 40% from three or not, but he's in the "margin of error" range where its possible, especially if he plays less and has lower volume and continues to only shoot when unguarded.

[Muzbar]

Well it's pretty damn rare that a player makes a star jump in his 7th season, so I'd say the odds of Coby sustaining that level of play is like 15% at most.

Giddey's level of play, if sustainable, is borderline superstar, so maybe 25% at best.

Matas reaching that threshold I'd put at 45%. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 12-14 PPG this season before he makes a more notable jump in year 3.

Vuc, I don't care enough to speculate. He's hopefully not in our long term plans.

I've got to agree with this assessment, especially regarding Matas.

I think Matas will be around that 12-14ppg make also, I think he'll look more like an NBA player, he's got a drive in him that most players lack. I think he'll look good for the most part of the year but he'll have flashes of really great play too.

Coby I think will be around 20-22ppg on good efficiency.

I don't see Giddey being a 20ppg scorer all season, especially if Matas and Coby are taking a step up, plus Vuc is going to be scoring also. Maybe around 16-17ppg, 9-10rpg and 8-10apg?

[sco]

Well it's pretty damn rare that a player makes a star jump in his 7th season, so I'd say the odds of Coby sustaining that level of play is like 15% at most.

Giddey's level of play, if sustainable, is borderline superstar, so maybe 25% at best.

Matas reaching that threshold I'd put at 45%. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 12-14 PPG this season before he makes a more notable jump in year 3.

Vuc, I don't care enough to speculate. He's hopefully not in our long term plans.

I've got to agree with this assessment, especially regarding Matas.

I think Matas will be around that 12-14ppg make also, I think he'll look more like an NBA player, he's got a drive in him that most players lack. I think he'll look good for the most part of the year but he'll have flashes of really great play too.

Coby I think will be around 20-22ppg on good efficiency.

I don't see Giddey being a 20ppg scorer all season, especially if Matas and Coby are taking a step up, plus Vuc is going to be scoring also. Maybe around 16-17ppg, 9-10rpg and 8-10apg?

I think it will be hard for any/all of Giddey/Coby/Matas to make meaningful strides with Vuc here. On the Matas front, I forgot to note in the OP that he averaged 13ppg post ASG, so the leap isn't all that huge.

[Muzbar]

Well it's pretty damn rare that a player makes a star jump in his 7th season, so I'd say the odds of Coby sustaining that level of play is like 15% at most.

Giddey's level of play, if sustainable, is borderline superstar, so maybe 25% at best.

Matas reaching that threshold I'd put at 45%. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 12-14 PPG this season before he makes a more notable jump in year 3.

Vuc, I don't care enough to speculate. He's hopefully not in our long term plans.

I've got to agree with this assessment, especially regarding Matas.

I think Matas will be around that 12-14ppg make also, I think he'll look more like an NBA player, he's got a drive in him that most players lack. I think he'll look good for the most part of the year but he'll have flashes of really great play too.

Coby I think will be around 20-22ppg on good efficiency.

I don't see Giddey being a 20ppg scorer all season, especially if Matas and Coby are taking a step up, plus Vuc is going to be scoring also. Maybe around 16-17ppg, 9-10rpg and 8-10apg?

I think it will be hard for any/all of Giddey/Coby/Matas to make meaningful strides with Vuc here. On the Matas front, I forgot to note in the OP that he averaged 13ppg post ASG, so the leap isn't all that huge.

The difference is he'll have to maintain that over a whole season and make adjustments when the defenses do.

I think he can do it, but it's a bit different over 82 games rather than 27.

I'm hoping he can be a decent rebounder in year two, 5-6rpg would be awesome.

[sco]

I've got to agree with this assessment, especially regarding Matas.

I think Matas will be around that 12-14ppg make also, I think he'll look more like an NBA player, he's got a drive in him that most players lack. I think he'll look good for the most part of the year but he'll have flashes of really great play too.

Coby I think will be around 20-22ppg on good efficiency.

I don't see Giddey being a 20ppg scorer all season, especially if Matas and Coby are taking a step up, plus Vuc is going to be scoring also. Maybe around 16-17ppg, 9-10rpg and 8-10apg?

I think it will be hard for any/all of Giddey/Coby/Matas to make meaningful strides with Vuc here. On the Matas front, I forgot to note in the OP that he averaged 13ppg post ASG, so the leap isn't all that huge.

The difference is he'll have to maintain that over a whole season and make adjustments when the defenses do.

I think he can do it, but it's a bit different over 82 games rather than 27.

I'm hoping he can be a decent rebounder in year two, 5-6rpg would be awesome.

Makes sense. I'll add 2 things. First, his 13ppg was in 27MPG. Second, I think it will take Vuc being gone for him the approx. 3 extra shots per game (to go from 10 to 13) to score the 3 extra points.

[Muzbar]

I think it will be hard for any/all of Giddey/Coby/Matas to make meaningful strides with Vuc here. On the Matas front, I forgot to note in the OP that he averaged 13ppg post ASG, so the leap isn't all that huge.

The difference is he'll have to maintain that over a whole season and make adjustments when the defenses do.

I think he can do it, but it's a bit different over 82 games rather than 27.

I'm hoping he can be a decent rebounder in year two, 5-6rpg would be awesome.

Make sense. I'll add 2 things. First, his 13ppg was in 27MPG. Second, I think it will take Vuc being gone for him the approx. 3 extra shots per game (to go from 10 to 13) to score the 3 extra points.

Yeah, Vuc being gone (probably at the trade deadline via buyout) will probably open up his game a bit more with more opportunities.

[sco]

The difference is he'll have to maintain that over a whole season and make adjustments when the defenses do.

I think he can do it, but it's a bit different over 82 games rather than 27.

I'm hoping he can be a decent rebounder in year two, 5-6rpg would be awesome.

Make sense. I'll add 2 things. First, his 13ppg was in 27MPG. Second, I think it will take Vuc being gone for him the approx. 3 extra shots per game (to go from 10 to 13) to score the 3 extra points.

Yeah, Vuc being gone (probably at the trade deadline via buyout) will probably open up his game a bit more with more opportunities.

Yeah, you're probably right it will take that long, but I really want the dude gone before the season.

[drosestruts]

I think some of these improvements are likely, but in some cases have to do with a shift in how we play vs individual talent increasing.

Following the All-star break we were 1st in Fast Break Points, 2nd in points in the paint, and 1st in Pace.

Playing at the speed we played at is going to create opportunities for players to score easy points and therefore score with decent effeciency.

Two areas where the team could improve overall leading to these better individuals stats are:

Points off turnovers - We were 21st in points off turnovers. I feel like there's a vison here to have long disruptive forwards like Matas and Noa eventually leading to an increase in defelctions that when combined with our pace will lead to additional easy fast break baskets.

2nd chance points - We're 24th in 2nd chance points. This where people get excited when imagining a springy, athletic, vertical spacing center. Easy tip-ins and putback opportunitis exist, we just don't have the personnel. (SIGN KAI JONES)


We had the 4th best +/- in the East following the All-Star Break:

Boston - +9.2
Cleveland - +7.2
Indiana - +5.6
Chicago - +4.8

Pacers rode a strong second half all the way to game 7 of the NBA Finals. Boston lost their star to injury and made moves focused to get under the tax rather than maintain or improve. Cleveland stayed good. There's a lot of discussion about the 2nd half of the season being real or a mirage.

But the way we played certainly changed. And that style does put players in position to have better seasons statistically - it'd a friendly system to scoring stats.

[sco]

I think some of these improvements are likely, but in some cases have to do with a shift in how we play vs individual talent increasing.

Following the All-star break we were 1st in Fast Break Points, 2nd in points in the paint, and 1st in Pace.

Playing at the speed we played at is going to create opportunities for players to score easy points and therefore score with decent effeciency.

Two areas where the team could improve overall leading to these better individuals stats are:

Points off turnovers - We were 21st in points off turnovers. I feel like there's a vison here to have long disruptive forwards like Matas and Noa eventually leading to an increase in defelctions that when combined with our pace will lead to additional easy fast break baskets.

2nd chance points - We're 24th in 2nd chance points. This where people get excited when imagining a springy, athletic, vertical spacing center. Easy tip-ins and putback opportunitis exist, we just don't have the personnel. (SIGN KAI JONES)


We had the 4th best +/- in the East following the All-Star Break:

Boston - +9.2
Cleveland - +7.2
Indiana - +5.6
Chicago - +4.8

Pacers rode a strong second half all the way to game 7 of the NBA Finals. Boston lost their star to injury and made moves focused to get under the tax rather than maintain or improve. Cleveland stayed good. There's a lot of discussion about the 2nd half of the season being real or a mirage.

But the way we played certainly changed. And that style does put players in position to have better seasons statistically - it'd a friendly system to scoring stats.

It's hard to separate the impact of style change from role change that impacted our core 3 guys. All 3 of them started attacking the basket more after Zach left, which positively impacted their offensive stats. After seeing the brief stint without Vuc, I think that his departure from our starting line-up would be the catalyst for another such leap in their performance on both ends (the main reason I am so adamant about buying him out to start the season).

[MGB8]

At 24.5 ppg, Coby would be a top 10 player in the league and a no debate max player. The other guards at 24.5 are Steph Curry & Lillard.

I think everything is unlikely, but I think Giddey probably comes the closest with less scoring because the situation for his change, he's the lead PG and he plays starter minutes and he gets touches, all carry into next season. Coby had the ball and the minutes the same pre & post trade, so it's more likely to be more of a hot streak. Plus Coby is older, we've seen more data on him. Giddey making gains at 22 is a bit more normal.

Matas is an 80% assisted player, and 97% assisted on 3s. It's harder for guys like that who are purely catching assists & finishing to double their PPG like that. Big gains usually come from guys who create on ball, and those guys getting more minutes. If he gets crazy minutes I guess it's possible, but we'd have to DNP PWill & Terry & Phillips entirely and Okoro will also play some 4.

Just a reminder that last year Cam Thomas averaged 24 PPG, 4 apg, 3 rpg in just over 31 mpg... At 23 years old, solid if not elite 58% TS... And is getting offered MLE type money with no making a play to sign the RFA.

[sco]

At 24.5 ppg, Coby would be a top 10 player in the league and a no debate max player. The other guards at 24.5 are Steph Curry & Lillard.

I think everything is unlikely, but I think Giddey probably comes the closest with less scoring because the situation for his change, he's the lead PG and he plays starter minutes and he gets touches, all carry into next season. Coby had the ball and the minutes the same pre & post trade, so it's more likely to be more of a hot streak. Plus Coby is older, we've seen more data on him. Giddey making gains at 22 is a bit more normal.

Matas is an 80% assisted player, and 97% assisted on 3s. It's harder for guys like that who are purely catching assists & finishing to double their PPG like that. Big gains usually come from guys who create on ball, and those guys getting more minutes. If he gets crazy minutes I guess it's possible, but we'd have to DNP PWill & Terry & Phillips entirely and Okoro will also play some 4.

Just a reminder that last year Cam Thomas averaged 24 PPG, 4 apg, 3 rpg in just over 31 mpg... At 23 years old, solid if not elite 58% TS... And is getting offered MLE type money with no making a play to sign the RFA.

Does anyone think trading for Cam would be an "either or" decision with Coby? They have similar strengths and weaknesses. Just couldn't see keeping both. I get the argument that Cam is younger, and potentially cheaper, if some other team would give us a deal for Coby that netted us neutral to positive value on a combined basis.

[Infinity2152]

At 24.5 ppg, Coby would be a top 10 player in the league and a no debate max player. The other guards at 24.5 are Steph Curry & Lillard.

I think everything is unlikely, but I think Giddey probably comes the closest with less scoring because the situation for his change, he's the lead PG and he plays starter minutes and he gets touches, all carry into next season. Coby had the ball and the minutes the same pre & post trade, so it's more likely to be more of a hot streak. Plus Coby is older, we've seen more data on him. Giddey making gains at 22 is a bit more normal.

Matas is an 80% assisted player, and 97% assisted on 3s. It's harder for guys like that who are purely catching assists & finishing to double their PPG like that. Big gains usually come from guys who create on ball, and those guys getting more minutes. If he gets crazy minutes I guess it's possible, but we'd have to DNP PWill & Terry & Phillips entirely and Okoro will also play some 4.

Just a reminder that last year Cam Thomas averaged 24 PPG, 4 apg, 3 rpg in just over 31 mpg... At 23 years old, solid if not elite 58% TS... And is getting offered MLE type money with no making a play to sign the RFA.

Does anyone think trading for Cam would be an "either or" decision with Coby? They have similar strengths and weaknesses. Just couldn't see keeping both. I get the argument that Cam is younger, and potentially cheaper, if some other team would give us a deal for Coby that netted us neutral to positive value on a combined basis.

In my opinion, absolutely not. Our backup shooting guard is Huerter, a three point shooting guard that's not a good defender. We'd be replacing him with a three point shooting guard who's not a great defender, but better on ball scorer. Same argument goes for trading for Anfernee Simons. All we need is for one of those guys to be willing to play super sixth man off the bench. Biggest problem I think is none of them can guard PG's effectively. If you have White/Simons or White/Thomas, one is going to play PG minutes to get 20+ minutes. Tre Jones is taking PG minutes. None of them can swing to forward.

It would give us insurance for Coby. I hate the fact that he will probably play out the season and we have no leverage in free agency. I'd love to make a move for Cam Thomas or do the Simons/Vucevic swap.

Here's my Vucevic prediction for this year. Last year predicted he would shoot above 36%, he shoots better every other year, lol. This year, he's coming in 10 lbs lighter, fired up at all the criticism, and will look damn good and be traded by the deadline. He'll shoot around 36-37% from three, but his block rate will increase dramatically.

Of the four choices above, think Matas has the highest chance of reaching his target (mostly dependent on him shooting 38% from three, not a crazy number).

[sco]

Just a reminder that last year Cam Thomas averaged 24 PPG, 4 apg, 3 rpg in just over 31 mpg... At 23 years old, solid if not elite 58% TS... And is getting offered MLE type money with no making a play to sign the RFA.

Does anyone think trading for Cam would be an "either or" decision with Coby? They have similar strengths and weaknesses. Just couldn't see keeping both. I get the argument that Cam is younger, and potentially cheaper, if some other team would give us a deal for Coby that netted us neutral to positive value on a combined basis.

In my opinion, absolutely not. Our backup shooting guard is Huerter, a three point shooting guard that's not a good defender. We'd be replacing him with a three point shooting guard who's not a great defender, but better on ball scorer. Same argument goes for trading for Anfernee Simons. All we need is for one of those guys to be willing to play super sixth man off the bench. Biggest problem I think is none of them can guard PG's effectively. If you have White/Simons or White/Thomas, one is going to play PG minutes to get 20+ minutes. Tre Jones is taking PG minutes. None of them can swing to forward.

It would give us insurance for Coby. I hate the fact that he will probably play out the season and we have no leverage in free agency. I'd love to make a move for Cam Thomas or do the Simons/Vucevic swap.

Here's my Vucevic prediction for this year. Last year predicted he would shoot above 36%, he shoots better every other year, lol. This year, he's coming in 10 lbs lighter, fired up at all the criticism, and will look damn good and be traded by the deadline. He'll shoot around 36-37% from three, but his block rate will increase dramatically.

Of the four choices above, think Matas has the highest chance of reaching his target (mostly dependent on him shooting 38% from three, not a crazy number).

I'd be all over that Simons/Vuc swap. Not sure what it would cost to get Cam. Ayo and/or Huerter?