Cooper Flagg Rookie Season Expectations

[TheGeneral99]

I think he will average 16ppg, 7rpg and 5apg on 49%fg and 30%3fg.

[bonita_the_frog]

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?
Has a rookie ever won MVP?

[Charlie Sollers]

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?
Has a rookie ever won MVP?

Wilt and Wes Unseld

[tsherkin]

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?

I doubt they finish top-2 even if he does score a bunch like that, to be honest.

[BigGargamel]

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?
Has a rookie ever won MVP?

Flagg will have to put up Jokic/SGA/Luka numbers as a rookie, and Dallas will have to win 55 games.

Of course, there's zero percent chance of that happening. 25 ppg isn't enough to get it done these days.

[bonita_the_frog]

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?

I doubt they finish top-2 even if he does score a bunch like that, to be honest.

Me too, i give Houston, OKC and Denver a better chance than Dallas of finishing top 2.

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?
Has a rookie ever won MVP?

Flagg will have to put up Jokic/SGA/Luka numbers as a rookie, and Dallas will have to win 55 games.

Of course, there's zero percent chance of that happening. 25 ppg isn't enough to get it done these days.

Wilt and Unseld won MVP in their rookie years with huge rebounding stats, so i wonder if a rookie today can win MVP with huge rebounding instead of huge scoring.
Is it really impossible to win MVP with 25ppg?

[tsherkin]

Wilt and Unseld won MVP in their rookie years with huge rebounding stats, so i wonder if a rookie today can win MVP with huge rebounding instead of huge scoring.
Is it really impossible to win MVP with 25ppg?

Wilt set the rookie record for points scored in a game, and also specifically in a rookie debut. He also set the record for both points and rebounds tallied in a rookie career. He was a 37.6 ppg player (scoring title) who also logged 27.0 rpg (26.96, actually), which was and remains the second-highest RPG average in league history, following only what he did in his second year. He was also something like 7% above league-average FG% in the process.

It was very much more than just his rebounding.

Unseld, sure. That was a weird MVP which was stolen from Willis Reed or Bill Russell for some reason.

[bonita_the_frog]

Wilt and Unseld won MVP in their rookie years with huge rebounding stats, so i wonder if a rookie today can win MVP with huge rebounding instead of huge scoring.
Is it really impossible to win MVP with 25ppg?

Wilt set the rookie record for points scored in a game, and also specifically in a rookie debut. He also set the record for both points and rebounds tallied in a rookie career. He was a 37.6 ppg player (scoring title) who also logged 27.0 rpg (26.96, actually), which was and remains the second-highest RPG average in league history, following only what he did in his second year. He was also something like 7% above league-average FG% in the process.

It was very much more than just his rebounding.

Unseld, sure. That was a weird MVP which was stolen from Willis Reed or Bill Russell for some reason.

Safe to say if a rookie averaged 27 rebounds per game today, they'd win MVP (if their team finished high enough, maybe even top 4 would be good enough with 27rpg) even if they only scored 10 or 15ppg.
Even 18 rebounds per game (Unseld) might be enough to win MVP today as a rookie...

[tsherkin]

Safe to say if a rookie averaged 27 rebounds per game today, they'd win MVP (if their team finished high enough, maybe even top 4 would be good enough with 27rpg) even if they only scored 10 or 15ppg.
Even 18 rebounds per game (Unseld) might be enough to win MVP today as a rookie...

It's possible. It's a very different environment, though, with fewer possessions and better FG%, so it's not a thing we have to worry about.

[bonita_the_frog]

Safe to say if a rookie averaged 27 rebounds per game today, they'd win MVP (if their team finished high enough, maybe even top 4 would be good enough with 27rpg) even if they only scored 10 or 15ppg.
Even 18 rebounds per game (Unseld) might be enough to win MVP today as a rookie...

It's possible. It's a very different environment, though, with fewer possessions and better FG%, so it's not a thing we have to worry about.

I wonder how many rebounds peak Rodman would average today, and whether the 3-pointers would help or hurt his numbers.
He was very good at chasing rebounds outside of the paint at least, so he might still average 18rpg... though he's a rare case, and took 5 years before he got to 18rpg.

[tsherkin]

I wonder how many rebounds peak Rodman would average today, and whether the 3-pointers would help or hurt his numbers.

Would very clearly hurt his numbers. Also, his general lack of utility on offense besides his offensive rebounding would make it harder to play him today. Great man-on defender. But at his rebounding peak, he was also shucking defensive responsibility to chase numbers prior to going to Chicago.

[Handlez]

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?
Has a rookie ever won MVP?

This is absolutely not going to happen with all the talent the Mavs have.

These expectations are unfair.

Cooper will need a year or two before he's at 25ppg. Maybe three years. But he will absolutely do everything well sooner than later.

[dhsilv2]

Wilt and Unseld won MVP in their rookie years with huge rebounding stats, so i wonder if a rookie today can win MVP with huge rebounding instead of huge scoring.
Is it really impossible to win MVP with 25ppg?

Wilt set the rookie record for points scored in a game, and also specifically in a rookie debut. He also set the record for both points and rebounds tallied in a rookie career. He was a 37.6 ppg player (scoring title) who also logged 27.0 rpg (26.96, actually), which was and remains the second-highest RPG average in league history, following only what he did in his second year. He was also something like 7% above league-average FG% in the process.

It was very much more than just his rebounding.

Unseld, sure. That was a weird MVP which was stolen from Willis Reed or Bill Russell for some reason.

Safe to say if a rookie averaged 27 rebounds per game today, they'd win MVP (if their team finished high enough, maybe even top 4 would be good enough with 27rpg) even if they only scored 10 or 15ppg.
Even 18 rebounds per game (Unseld) might be enough to win MVP today as a rookie...

How would 15 and 20 give a player any real shot at MVP today? Jokic just basically did 30 13 and 10 and it wasn't even a big controversy that he didn't win MVP.

As for rodman like rebounding, 18ish. That came playing over 40 a game and with pretty similar rebounds available to today. So while perhaps possible, I can't see someone playing that much. I'll also add we don't have on off data or anything but the Pistons were like 6th and 7th in offensive and defensive rebounding rates. So clearly Rodman was a plus, but it wasn't like they were just cleaning house on the glass.

[tsherkin]

As for rodman like rebounding, 18ish. That came playing over 40 a game and with pretty similar rebounds available to today. So while perhaps possible, I can't see someone playing that much. I'll also add we don't have on off data or anything but the Pistons were like 6th and 7th in offensive and defensive rebounding rates. So clearly Rodman was a plus, but it wasn't like they were just cleaning house on the glass.

Major difference in 3pt shooting compared to then, and consequently to rebounding locations. And the last time someone averaged 38+ mpg was 9 years ago.

And he'd be a huge defensive sink if he kept attacking the boards at the expense of perimeter defense the way he did in that period.

[dhsilv2]

As for rodman like rebounding, 18ish. That came playing over 40 a game and with pretty similar rebounds available to today. So while perhaps possible, I can't see someone playing that much. I'll also add we don't have on off data or anything but the Pistons were like 6th and 7th in offensive and defensive rebounding rates. So clearly Rodman was a plus, but it wasn't like they were just cleaning house on the glass.

Major difference in 3pt shooting compared to then, and consequently to rebounding locations. And the last time someone averaged 38+ mpg was 9 years ago.

And he'd be a huge defensive sink if he kept attacking the boards at the expense of perimeter defense the way he did in that period.

Well, imagine Rodman with Wemby's wings! doesn't matter where it's going, it stops when the giant grabs it off the rim

But yeah, in general to get 18 rebounds a game in something like 36 minutes a game would require some kind of rubber magnetic hands or something. Just not reasonable.

[tsherkin]

Well, imagine Rodman with Wemby's wings! doesn't matter where it's going, it stops when the giant grabs it off the rim

But he was 6'7, and didn't have Wemby's wings. This isn't salient at all.

But yeah, in general to get 18 rebounds a game in something like 36 minutes a game would require some kind of rubber magnetic hands or something. Just not reasonable.

Yeah, that was my point. There's no way he gets the same volume in today's game, for a variety of reasons. In 92, he had north of 26% TRB.

This century, we've seen 24%+ TRB, 30+ mpg and 40+ GP in 11 player-seasons, spread across 5 players. It happened most recently with Gobert in 2022, with a league-high 25.0% TRB which resulted in 14.7 TRB/g over 32.1 mpg. So that was about 18.2 REB40, if you want to look at it that way.

He, Clint Capela and Andre Drummond each have one season of this set in the 2020s. And none of them can stay on the court for much longer than 30-34 mpg, because there are just too many issues with the nature of their play. Lack of a 3-ball, defense in space, etc.

2018 DeAndre Jordan topped out the TRB% this century in this set at 26.5%, which led to 15.2 TRB/g and about 19.3 TRB40.

So I guess the rate isn't entirely out of reach (although you really only see the one season from Gobert since the large proliferation of volume 3pt shooting), and from guys who can't stay on the court long enough to reach the intended target. And Rodman was notably worse on O than most of those guys. He was a horrendous FT shooter with no range, and that's not an archetype you see getting crazy minutes. And then yeah, like I said, it's been nearly a decade since anyone got 38+ mpg at all, it just isn't really done anymore.

[MrGoat]

Is there any chance Cooper Flagg wins MVP if Dallas finished Top2 and Flagg scores 25ppg?
Has a rookie ever won MVP?

He'd need to clear 30ppg with decent numbers all around and the Mavs having the top record in the league to win MVP in the current league. Only 25ppg and top 2 in the West would get him in the All star game but wouldn't get it done for the MVP

[Duke4life831]

I think it’s too hard to project his ppg/assists/rebounds. I think a lot depends on how healthy AD can stay during the season and how much more Klay has fallen off.

I think if they stay healthy and are in that 5-8 seed range, I can see him having a smaller role on offense. If AD is hurt a lot, Klay continues to decline and they’re out of the playoff race. I can see them deciding to put more of a point forward role for Flagg.

Honestly the 3 main stats I’m going to be looking for is 35%, 85%, and 2:1.

Can he shoot 35% from 3 on solid volume and can he be 85% from the line. Defense I don’t have much questions about. And can he finish with a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio.

If he can do those 3 things (the 2:1 assist to turnover ratio I think will be the hardest one), I think that will be a fantastic sign for his floor and his potential ceiling going forward

[tsherkin]

Honestly the 3 main stats I’m going to be looking for is 35%, 85%, and 2:1.

Can he shoot 35% from 3 on solid volume and can he be 85% from the line. Defense I don’t have much questions about. And can he finish with a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio.

If he can do those 3 things (the 2:1 assist to turnover ratio I think will be the hardest one), I think that will be a fantastic sign for his floor and his potential ceiling going forward

85% is a lot. I'd be thrilled with anything from like 79% on upward. 80-anything would be nice.

As a rook? 33%+ from the NBA 3 would be nice, depending on exactly how well and how often he shoots from the corners. I don't think I"m super worried about his turnover ratio as a rookie. I'd expect it to be his messiest season with his most significant learning curve.

Would love to see an arc of improvement from month to month by the end of the year, that'd be nice.

[Duke4life831]

Honestly the 3 main stats I’m going to be looking for is 35%, 85%, and 2:1.

Can he shoot 35% from 3 on solid volume and can he be 85% from the line. Defense I don’t have much questions about. And can he finish with a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio.

If he can do those 3 things (the 2:1 assist to turnover ratio I think will be the hardest one), I think that will be a fantastic sign for his floor and his potential ceiling going forward

85% is a lot. I'd be thrilled with anything from like 79% on upward. 80-anything would be nice.

As a rook? 33%+ from the NBA 3 would be nice, depending on exactly how well and how often he shoots from the corners. I don't think I"m super worried about his turnover ratio as a rookie. I'd expect it to be his messiest season with his most significant learning curve.

Would love to see an arc of improvement from month to month by the end of the year, that'd be nice.

He was an 84% FT shooter on the season last year. And if you take away his overall horrific shooting the first month of the season (9 games). He was 88% on 167 attempts to finish the season. So I think 85% would be right in line with a solid year to year progression.

And I agree the assist to turnover ratio if he doesnt hit 2:1 isnt a big deal. I also think a lot of that depends on how he gets used. If he is mainly playing off ball, I think he will hit that pretty easily. I could see like a 2.5-3 assists to 1.25-1.5 turnovers. If he is asked to play more of a point forward role, I dont think he hits the 2:1 ratio.