Warriors exploring S&T for Kuminga

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

[AirP.]

Not a terrible play by Sacramento if this is what they're doing, create a relationship, let Kuminga know what he can expect if he for whatever reason takes the QO and becomes a FA next year. At the very least it would be the minimum he can expect next summer.

Read on Twitter

[EvanZ]

If I were the Kings I'd just roll with Devin Carter, Keon Ellis and Nique Clifford in the starting lineup. DDR and LaVine can suck it and negotiate buyouts if they want.

What about schroder? Keegan?

Forgot about Schroeder. Probably good to start him at pg and have DC be a 6th man.

Schroeder
Keon
Nique
Keegan
Sabonis

[EvanZ]

Not a terrible play by Sacramento if this is what they're doing, create a relationship, let Kuminga know what he can expect if he for whatever reason takes the QO and becomes a FA next year. At the very least it would be the minimum he can expect next summer.

Read on Twitter

A WHOLE LOT CAN CHANGE IN ONE SEASON

[AirP.]

Not a terrible play by Sacramento if this is what they're doing, create a relationship, let Kuminga know what he can expect if he for whatever reason takes the QO and becomes a FA next year. At the very least it would be the minimum he can expect next summer.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

A WHOLE LOT CAN CHANGE IN ONE SEASON

Absolutely but the situation is this...

Sacramento can wait (they're not contending this next season), not send out a 1st, not send out possibly K.Ellis (or D.Carter) and sign Kuminga next summer and have all 3 assets vs just one asset if they sent out Ellis and a 1st. I'm not saying it's a great plan, but it's a decent plan and possibly give Kuminga enough of a safety net for the future to take the QO and go wherever he wants next year.

[vvoland]

So we're talking about 4.5 shots out of 12. A third of his shots that he needs to re-work. That's a significant change


Now we're talking about more than half of his shots ...

You realize that a number of those 2+ dribbles are good and/or necessary shots, right? either in transition, w/o steph on the court, late clock, etc?

Same for the shots in the 2-6 second range. Transition, designed post up, starters sitting, etc. I'm not saying they're all good shots but your assumption seems to be he should shoot 0 times per game with 2+ dribbles or 2+ seconds. He's not Tyson Chandler and we don't have the type of offense that would allow him to do only center things. We NEED scoring, often in difficult situation and, outside Steph, we don't have anyone to do that.

according to cleaning the glass, our o/d ratings with:

Steph, no JK - 119.5 vs 114.4 (3600 poss)
JK, no Steph - 112 vs 111.5 (2300 poss)
JK + Steph - 122 vs 114 (1100 poss)

Sucks the best of those 3 combos played 1/7 of the available possession (1100 out of ~7K)

JK would be a lot better if he played like Tyson Chandler or you know the player Kerr wants him to play like Shawn Marion or Aaron Gordon. Will he have to take some bailout shots sure.

JK no Steph shows you that he isn't really good at creating offense.

Can he take advantage of the space Steph creates? Yes. Is that useful yes. But if he's going to be calling his own number over Steph then those numbers would plummet.

Pull up any game and there will likely be 3-4 shots that are just not good shots. Add in the fts that he does get and it's probably even more, not that drawing fts is bad but still not good offense. Then add in the turnovers as well when he drives into traffic and yells "aaayyyee". Now that's probably like 8 possessions in 25 mpg. That's almost 15% of the total possessions in a game if you were to do that for an entire game. You think we're that much better than other teams that we can just throw away 15% of our possessions?

I agree, he can play more like a 5. I just don't that his regular role, nor should it be. That's who gordon and marion are in the modern nba, small 5s.

I'm not sure if you're calling FTs "still not good offense" but, if you are, I'll have disagree. His FT rate is one of the best things about his offense and that's despite him shooting in the mid 60s from the line. The one season he got it up to 75 was terrific, especially that 2nd half where he shot like 80+. Coincided with a consistent role (32 of 39 starts to end the season, post Dray suspension) where we went like 27-12, iirc.

8 possessions seems like a lot. Can we settle on 6? At 22, that's not the worst number and, while he'll never get it to 0, the question is, will he ever be good enough to justify the 4? 5? Can he get to 3 while maintaining high usage and efficiency? I'd happily pay 45M guaranteed, over two years, to find out. You may be convinced that it's obvious he won't, and you may be right. We'll see soon enough.

To me, the lineup data really does show he's valuable HERE. He's a net positive without Steph and Jimmy, as the vast majority of JK's possessions last year were pre-Jimmy or substituting in for JB. That's huge for this, very old, team.

In addition, he elevates the offense when he plays w/ steph while the defense actually improves a bit.

Just punting both of those, just because JK is pining for a bigger role and is willing to go elsewhere to find it seems premature. Once he's paid, especially if it's a contract he's ok with, I don't see the sabotage of the last poole season. I haven't seen that personality from JK. Worst thing he'll do is look unhappy on the bench if he's getting DNP-CDs before getting traded in Feb. I think we would have heard, through all these leaks, if the relationship itself is untenable and JK won't commit here for the length of the deal.

I don't think the risk it's anything like playing JP3 30 mins a night while watching him fall over on offense and not run back. Kerr may not play him even if JK is competing at a high level. What do you think he'll do if JK pulled any of the stuff JP3 did in 2023?

[jg77]

3/82, QO, or S&T...are the only options. Warriors will have to pick which route they want to go.

I don't think Kuminga signs the 2/45 even if they drop the team option

[vvoland]

Not a terrible play by Sacramento if this is what they're doing, create a relationship, let Kuminga know what he can expect if he for whatever reason takes the QO and becomes a FA next year. At the very least it would be the minimum he can expect next summer.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

A WHOLE LOT CAN CHANGE IN ONE SEASON

Absolutely but the situation is this...

Sacramento can wait (they're not contending this next season), not send out a 1st, not send out possibly K.Ellis (or D.Carter) and sign Kuminga next summer and have all 3 assets vs just one asset if they sent out Ellis and a 1st. I'm not saying it's a great plan, but it's a decent plan and possibly give Kuminga enough of a safety net for the future to take the QO and go wherever he wants next year.

As much as I am a fan of JK, if I'm Sac, I'd prefer to continue watching JK for a year or two and either trading for him w/o the BYC stuff OR signing him outright as an UFA in the summer (26 or 27). They'd still be getting a 23/24 year old, two, not four, years before his prime, with 6 seasons of highly competitive basketball and hard coaching.

Why give up assets like a 1st today when I can watch the preview and sign him for just cash, next summer? Or, better yet, in 27? Sure, maybe I can get a discount on a 4 year deal today but at the price of good assets and significantly more risk.

We, on the other hand, need players to contribute TODAY. JK has done so in the past, and unless Onus is correct and he'll only come in and mail it in unless he gets 4+ years or 28M+, we can keep him over hoping DC or Nick Richards can actually play minutes here.

[EvanZ]

People are assuming Kumigna will "play hard" once he gets the bag. Isn't it just as likely if not even more likely he'll do exactly the opposite? I mean are we really supposed to believe that once he "gets paid" he's going to become some "try hard" guy out of nowhere? That's not historically how it works. Players are usually wired a certain way. If anything history has shown us that a lot of players that get the bag, that's when they mail it in. It's the contract year (which for JK was last season) that they put in the "real effort".

[vvoland]

3/82, QO, or S&T...are the only options. Warriors will have to pick which route they want to go.

I don't think Kuminga signs the 2/45 even if they drop the team option

You may be right but I think slater's reporting is fairly accurate. If they guarantee the 2nd year, thus removing the implicit NTC for JK, he'd probably sign for 45. It's the non-guarantee AND asking him to waive the NTC that's the sticking point. According to Shams/Slater (Shlams?), at least.

There's an argument, and I am NOT making it, that it may be better to bring in JK on the 3/82 or something like it, just to get him to buy in more. It still allows for the TPMLE/Second apron stuff but gives JK what he's asking for. I'm not making that argument because I don't think it'll matter if he doesn't get minutes. Kerr seem too stubborn to care much about the salary in making those decisions.

[EvanZ]

3/82 is laughable. That is not happening.

[AirP.]

People are assuming Kumigna will "play hard" once he gets the bag. Isn't it just as likely if not even more likely he'll do exactly the opposite? I mean are we really supposed to believe that once he "gets paid" he's going to become some "try hard" guy out of nowhere? That's not historically how it works. Players are usually wired a certain way. If anything history has shown us that a lot of players that get the bag, that's when they mail it in. It's the contract year (which for JK was last season) that they put in the "real effort".

Play hard is your issue with him if he gets paid? Nah, he'll give effort if he gets paid, but he'll be more emboldened to play how he wants to play because he'll have more power with a sizable contract and the knowledge that when this 2nd contract is up, he can pick his next destination.

Kuminga has the mindset of a main offensive option which is fine, the issue is his style of play which doesn't fit the offense that GS/Kerr wants to play, you have to play differently and probably make personal changes to compensate for that type of player. The FO should have picked Curry/Kerr or Kuminga and I don't see how you can tell Curry they've prioritized developing Kuminga and wasting the last of his career, basically just running him out there to keep the seats full.

[vvoland]

People are assuming Kumigna will "play hard" once he gets the bag. Isn't it just as likely if not even more likely he'll do exactly the opposite? I mean are we really supposed to believe that once he "gets paid" he's going to become some "try hard" guy out of nowhere? That's not historically how it works. Players are usually wired a certain way. If anything history has shown us that a lot of players that get the bag, that's when they mail it in. It's the contract year (which for JK was last season) that they put in the "real effort".

Do you think he played with more effort last year than the first 3? 30M was what most career earnings used to earn in the 90s/00s when people mailed it in consistently. He got that at 18. I saw guy who's effort rarely waned but, when it did, it was because he wasn't playing or didn't see how to get on the court.

I think his flaws are less effort than they are skill (shooting), awareness (off-ball defense, shot selection) and reaction speed. It's hard to provide examples of this last one but his reaction time to loose balls or rebounds is always like a half step late, as if he hesitates or doesn't recognize it early enough. Not sure how much the awareness and reaction will improve with time, i don't have ton of hope it'll drastically change but incremental improvement might be enough. The shooting and other skills? That's a necessary improvement that I'm not sure will happen but, I guess, am willing to pay for 2 years to find out.

His effort hasn't been an issue as much as the confidence. In his minutes, his shot, his decision making. Self confidence and that of his coaches and teammates. All of that seems to be both problematic and fixable.

Just one example, it seemed like the first time he talked to Kerr about his role was after that Denver game, where he played really well, sat the 2nd half, and we blew it. It was 18 months ago, 2.5 YEARS into his career. After, Kerr was like, "my door is always open." You may not have the same recollection/impression but I remember thinking, as a young kid with limited English (based on what i heard w/ JK in front of the camera), if it's upon JK to initiate those conversations, Kerr may be approaching this wrong. He played well for the rest of that season, helping us finish the year on a good run. Too bad it didn't result in a playoff appearance, though he may have been back to getting DNP-CDs after falling asleep on a box out. Who knows.

This what I think gave me the impression the communication was expected to be driven by JK and there was little of it before the Denver benching and "losing faith in Kerr' narrative.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nba/news/after-report-hes-unhappy-kuminga-meets-with-kerr-then-plays-season-high-36-minutes-in-win

https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/jonathan-kuminga-steve-kerr-clear-air/1688517/

[statsman]

3/82 is laughable. That is not happening.

Beyond that, it pretty much prevents the Warriors from using the entire TPMLE. Goodbye, Horford.

I realize it wasn't the best of ideas, but I was hoping the Warriors could convince Beal to sign with them for more than the Clippers offered ($5.354M). Sign Beal for $8-10M from the NTMLE. Do a S&T with Horford and the Celtics into $6-7M of the SloMo $8.8M TPE. Sign three vet minimums (four, if they waived TJD). The Beal and Horford signings would have hard capped the team at the 1st apron. At that point, they renounce their restricted free agent rights to Kuminga, making him unrestricted. That probably would lead him to a NTMLE contract with some other team.

Lacob's desire for Giannis makes all of the above moot. As it is, it probably wasn't a good idea, but hey, Beal, Horford, Melton, plus 2-3 more vet minimums.

[ChuckDurn]

Seeing all this, I’m guessing the final outcome is that the Warriors and Kuminga end up on a deal that’s 3 years, ~$72M (basically adding $1M in year 1 and a third year to the current 2/$45M offer, with regular increases each year), with the Warriors having a team option in year 3. (Or alternately, both a player option and a team option for year 3. We used to see those periodically, it’s been a while but I assume still possible.) No no-trade clause or anything.

If the Warriors’ concern is that the 3-year deal might become untradeable (I don’t think that would be the case), it’s sheltered by the fact that year 3 is a team option. Likewise, Kuminga gets a little more money annually, and is guaranteed for 2 years.

And then if Kuminga doesn’t sign that, it’s almost certainly because he’s just decided he wants to be out of here as quickly as possible. Because that’s clearly as good as he’s going to get anywhere, financially.

[vvoland]

Seeing all this, I’m guessing the final outcome is that the Warriors and Kuminga end up on a deal that’s 3 years, ~$72M (basically adding $1M in year 1 and a third year to the current 2/$45M offer, with regular increases each year), with the Warriors having a team option in year 3. (Or alternately, both a player option and a team option for year 3. We used to see those periodically, it’s been a while but I assume still possible.) No no-trade clause or anything.

If the Warriors’ concern is that the 3-year deal might become untradeable (I don’t think that would be the case), it’s sheltered by the fact that year 3 is a team option. Likewise, Kuminga gets a little more money annually, and is guaranteed for 2 years.

And then if Kuminga doesn’t sign that, it’s almost certainly because he’s just decided he wants to be out of here as quickly as possible. Because that’s clearly as good as he’s going to get anywhere, financially.

Refusing that contract, or something like it, would be my first sign that JK doesn't actually want to come back. Even if it's just a 2 year deal at ~50M, if he doesn't sign it, he should just be moved for the roster spot.

The NTC only became a talking point because the dubs want a team option on year 2. Since contracts not guaranteed in the 2nd year provide a NTC to the player the dubs wanted JK to waive it. I didn't even know that was possible and, apparently, is another thing in the new CBA the players got totally reamed on. Fully guaranteeing year 2 would eliminate that issue, entirely.

[vvoland]

3/82 is laughable. That is not happening.

Beyond that, it pretty much prevents the Warriors from using the entire TPMLE. Goodbye, Horford.

I realize it wasn't the best of ideas, but I was hoping the Warriors could convince Beal to sign with them for more than the Clippers offered ($5.354M). Sign Beal for $8-10M from the NTMLE. Do a S&T with Horford and the Celtics into $6-7M of the SloMo $8.8M TPE. Sign three vet minimums (four, if they waived TJD). The Beal and Horford signings would have hard capped the team at the 1st apron. At that point, they renounce their restricted free agent rights to Kuminga, making him unrestricted. That probably would lead him to a NTMLE contract with some other team.

Lacob's desire for Giannis makes all of the above moot. As it is, it probably wasn't a good idea, but hey, Beal, Horford, Melton, plus 2-3 more vet minimums.

My understanding was that 3/82 started at a number low enough to let them use the TPMLE? Was that misreported? Wouldn't be surprised if it was.

[statsman]

3/82 is laughable. That is not happening.

Beyond that, it pretty much prevents the Warriors from using the entire TPMLE. Goodbye, Horford.

I realize it wasn't the best of ideas, but I was hoping the Warriors could convince Beal to sign with them for more than the Clippers offered ($5.354M). Sign Beal for $8-10M from the NTMLE. Do a S&T with Horford and the Celtics into $6-7M of the SloMo $8.8M TPE. Sign three vet minimums (four, if they waived TJD). The Beal and Horford signings would have hard capped the team at the 1st apron. At that point, they renounce their restricted free agent rights to Kuminga, making him unrestricted. That probably would lead him to a NTMLE contract with some other team.

Lacob's desire for Giannis makes all of the above moot. As it is, it probably wasn't a good idea, but hey, Beal, Horford, Melton, plus 2-3 more vet minimums.

My understanding was that 3/82 started at a number low enough to let them use the TPMLE? Was that misreported? Wouldn't be surprised if it was.

It probably would require one of the 2nd round picks (Toohey or Richard) to be signed to one of the 14 roster slots with the rookie minimum. But man, even in that case, they would be threading the cap needle, leaving themselves less than $460K (that's $460,000) below the 2nd apron.

Heaven help the Warriors if they needed to pick up an injury replacement for Melton (again!) or any other vet minimum who has a serious injury. The Warriors need a little cap breathing room here (and maybe trading room).

Also, with a 2nd round pick signed to the #14 roster spot, that would leave room for just two vet minimums. They could go to three vet minimums, but that would require waiving TJD. Doing that would lower the space below the 2nd apron to under $385K.

[vvoland]

Beyond that, it pretty much prevents the Warriors from using the entire TPMLE. Goodbye, Horford.

I realize it wasn't the best of ideas, but I was hoping the Warriors could convince Beal to sign with them for more than the Clippers offered ($5.354M). Sign Beal for $8-10M from the NTMLE. Do a S&T with Horford and the Celtics into $6-7M of the SloMo $8.8M TPE. Sign three vet minimums (four, if they waived TJD). The Beal and Horford signings would have hard capped the team at the 1st apron. At that point, they renounce their restricted free agent rights to Kuminga, making him unrestricted. That probably would lead him to a NTMLE contract with some other team.

Lacob's desire for Giannis makes all of the above moot. As it is, it probably wasn't a good idea, but hey, Beal, Horford, Melton, plus 2-3 more vet minimums.

My understanding was that 3/82 started at a number low enough to let them use the TPMLE? Was that misreported? Wouldn't be surprised if it was.

It probably would require one of the 2nd round picks (Toohey or Richard) to be signed to one of the 14 roster slots with the rookie minimum. But man, even in that case, they would be threading the cap needle, leaving themselves less than $460K (that's $460,000) below the 2nd apron.

Heaven help the Warriors if they needed to pick up an injury replacement for Melton (again!) or any other vet minimum who has a serious injury. The Warriors need a little cap breathing room here (and maybe trading room).

Also, with a 2nd round pick signed to the #14 roster spot, that would leave room for just two vet minimums. They could go to three vet minimums, but that would require waiving TJD. Doing that would lower the space below the 2nd apron to under $385K.

Thanks for laying that our so clearly. Cutting TJD vs trading him for a fake 2nd round pick has the same cap implications, I assume?

All the more reason the 3/72 chuck postulated is probably the middle ground. I'm pretty agnostic on who'll hold the 3rd year option or to guarantee it completely but starting next season at a number that gives us the full TPMLE and another vet min would probably be the right amount. That's what, like 23M?

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter