MLB Trade Deadline & Jays Trade Deadline Thread

[Mehar]

My understanding is if Bieber declines his option, he gets 4M. He effectively signed a 1/14M deal with the option tacked on. Another reason he’s virtually assured to decline that option if he’s healthy at year’s end.

Jays will still extend a 21 million Qualifying Offer to him, after he declines his option. Bieber will most likely decline that also based on how he performs the rest of the year, and if he leaves- a compensatory draft pick is what this organization will get.

We do not get a compensatory pick as he was acquired in-season. (We'd get a comp pick if we qualify Bo Bichette and he declines it and leaves as an FA). And I assume if Beiber declines his option, he is a free agent and the team owes him nothing. If he picks up his option, the team can buy him out of it for $4 million

Yes, you are correct. My mistake. If a player is acquired during the season, there is no compensatory pick.

[StopitLeo]

He’s got a point they still don’t have a shutdown closer.

We now live in an era where fans want to be lectured by nerds who have never done it, while criticizing former pros.

I was someone who felt we needed a shutdown arm. When I look at the numbers, however, Hoffman has performed comparably to the other big names available.

SV%

Bednar = 100%
Duran = 89%
Miller = 87%
Hoffman = 86%
Helsley = 81%

Noteworthy is differences in inherited runners:

Bednar = 0
Duran = 4
Miller = 9
Hoffman = 8
Helsley = 0


Here are some percentile rankings from Statcast:

K%

Bednar = 95
Duran = 73
Miller = 100
Hoffman = 96
Helsley = 75

Whiff%

Bednar = 72
Duran = 87
Miller = 99
Hoffman = 91
Helsley = 86

Chase%

Bednar = 72
Duran = 82
Miller = 96
Hoffman = 100
Helsley = 94

I think being a "shutdown" reliever is often equated with having high velocity. From these numbers Miller is the most "shutdown" of the group but the cost of acquiring him was massive.

Brendan Little is a great example of not needing velocity to be a dominant force in the bullpen (97th, 100th, and 92nd percentile for K%, Whiff%, and Chase%, respectively). Having said that, Dominquez and Varland are in the 94th and 95th percentile for velocity.

Just for completeness (K%, Whiff%, Chase%):

Dominguez = 94, 96, 80
Varland = 62, 55, 83

So we didn't get one of the big name closers but we added two really good relievers—who throw very hard—to a bullpen that already has guys performing at a very high level.

[Tripod]

At least we now have more options so Hoffman doesn't have to pitch 4/5 games.

I think all 3 of Hoffman, Varland and Dom get saves with us from now to end of year.

If only Garcia could get healthy

[Michael Bradley]

A buyout on a player option is still paid to the player if he opts out. It's basically a hedge by the player to get more up front if he uses it and a little bit less annually if he has to opt in. If it was a mutual option, then both sides either have to opt in or opt out in order for it to come into effect. That's not the case here. Either Bieber opts in and gets $16M in 2026, or he opts out, gets the $4M buyout, and then becomes a free agent. That's why it's a risky deal on the Jays end. They are banking on him doing well coming off surgery, and also have to accept the possibility that they will only have him for a few starts before he leaves. The team is probably hoping he doesn't opt in because if he does then that means something terribly wrong happened.

[rarefind]

A buyout on a player option is still paid to the player if he opts out. It's basically a hedge by the player to get more up front if he uses it and a little bit less annually if he has to opt in. If it was a mutual option, then both sides either have to opt in or opt out in order for it to come into effect. That's not the case here. Either Bieber opts in and gets $16M in 2026, or he opts out, gets the $4M buyout, and then becomes a free agent. That's why it's a risky deal on the Jays end. They are banking on him doing well coming off surgery, and also have to accept the possibility that they will only have him for a few starts before he leaves. The team is probably hoping he doesn't opt in because if he does then that means something terribly wrong happened.

Not disagreeing but is there an example from past years that you can think of outside of Bieber?

[StopitLeo]

A buyout on a player option is still paid to the player if he opts out. It's basically a hedge by the player to get more up front if he uses it and a little bit less annually if he has to opt in. If it was a mutual option, then both sides either have to opt in or opt out in order for it to come into effect. That's not the case here. Either Bieber opts in and gets $16M in 2026, or he opts out, gets the $4M buyout, and then becomes a free agent. That's why it's a risky deal on the Jays end. They are banking on him doing well coming off surgery, and also have to accept the possibility that they will only have him for a few starts before he leaves. The team is probably hoping he doesn't opt in because if he does then that means something terribly wrong happened.

Not disagreeing but is there an example from past years that you can think of outside of Bieber?

Yeah, here's one close to home.

Justin Turner had a $13.4M player option for 2024 with the Red Sox and a $6.7M buyout. He declined the option, got $6.7M, and then signed a 1-year $13M deal with Toronto. He ends up making $19.7M instead of $13.4M.

[johanliebert]

He’s got a point they still don’t have a shutdown closer.

We now live in an era where fans want to be lectured by nerds who have never done it, while criticizing former pros.

I was someone who felt we needed a shutdown arm. When I look at the numbers, however, Hoffman has performed comparably to the other big names available.

SV%

Bednar = 100%
Duran = 89%
Miller = 87%
Hoffman = 86%
Helsley = 81%

Noteworthy is differences in inherited runners:

Bednar = 0
Duran = 4
Miller = 9
Hoffman = 8
Helsley = 0


Here are some percentile rankings from Statcast:

K%

Bednar = 95
Duran = 73
Miller = 100
Hoffman = 96
Helsley = 75

Whiff%

Bednar = 72
Duran = 87
Miller = 99
Hoffman = 91
Helsley = 86

Chase%

Bednar = 72
Duran = 82
Miller = 96
Hoffman = 100
Helsley = 94

I think being a "shutdown" reliever is often equated with having high velocity. From these numbers Miller is the most "shutdown" of the group but the cost of acquiring him was massive.

Brendan Little is a great example of not needing velocity to be a dominant force in the bullpen (97th, 100th, and 92nd percentile for K%, Whiff%, and Chase%, respectively). Having said that, Dominquez and Varland are in the 94th and 95th percentile for velocity.

Just for completeness (K%, Whiff%, Chase%):

Dominguez = 94, 96, 80
Varland = 62, 55, 83

So we didn't get one of the big name closers but we added two really good relievers—who throw very hard—to a bullpen that already has guys performing at a very high level.

He's been good no question. Many people just dont see him as a great closer.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[Randle McMurphy]

Bird and Bednar just gave up 6 runs to the Marlins, so there’s that

[vaff87]

So all three of the relievers the Yankees acquired yesterday got lit up in their debuts. Yankees blew a 9-4 lead, and then a 12-10 lead in the 9th, and lost 13-12.

[Randle McMurphy]

So all three of the relievers the Yankees acquired yesterday got lit up in their debuts. Yankees blew a 9-4 lead, and then a 12-10 lead in the 9th, and lost 13-12.

Bird, Bednar, and Doval allowed 9 runs combined in the final 3 innings lmao

[Chris7711]

I watched it..enjoyed every second..enjoyed the yankee fans comments on utube live..pissed

[Chris7711]

I watched it..enjoyed every second..enjoyed the yankee fans comments on utube live..pissed. too bad we punting games against chisox,Oakland,Baltimore and now k.c..could have been 7 games up..Hoffman gave up that homerun against yankees. 2 game swing..gave 1 up in ninth against Baltimore, too..though Guzman would be ace after outpitching skugal, but now only trust Lauer. Hopeful, beiber impresses

[vaff87]

So all three of the relievers the Yankees acquired yesterday got lit up in their debuts. Yankees blew a 9-4 lead, and then a 12-10 lead in the 9th, and lost 13-12.

Bird, Bednar, and Doval allowed 9 runs combined in the final 3 innings lmao

It will be interesting to see how these guys do for the Yankees. We’ve seen a lot of guys go to the Yankees and struggle. It has to be a lot different closing games for the Pirates, who are never in contention, vs changing roles and pitching in a pennant race with the Yankees.

[Chris7711]

I watched it..enjoyed every second..enjoyed the yankee fans comments on utube live..pissed. too bad we punting games against chisox,Oakland,Baltimore and now k.c..could have been 7 games up..Hoffman gave up that homerun against yankees. 2 game swing..gave 1 up in ninth against Baltimore, too..thought Guzman would be ace after outpitching skugal, but now only trust Lauer. Hopeful, beiber impresses

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[vaff87]

I think Dan said today in today’s rehab start, Bieber’s average FB velocity was about 92.5 mph. That’s higher than it was in both 2022 and 2023.