Best outcome 25-26 Season sans a championship

[nate33]

Re: the 2026 that is Top 8-protected —

Could we make a deal with the Knicks so that we don’t have to sweat through the season? Give them a guy, so they come out of this thing with at least something? Otherwise, they’re just going to get 2 SRPs. Wouldn’t a player like a Champagnie (who I like) be more valuable to them?

This has been discussed on multiple threads now.

We could make such a deal, but it would cancel out our pick swap rights with Phoenix. Phoenix made the swap with us under the pretense that they had limited downside risk - that they couldn't possibly fall below 8th in a swap scenario with Washington. We can't retroactively change the terms of the agreement.

[payitforward]

Aaaaargh.. agenbite of inwit....! Stop trying to trade away our best player for 2 bits on the ten spot!!!

In any case, if we want to do that deal, the Knicks must presume we think we're going to be better than 8th worst record this year, in which case... why would they want to do the deal?

There's only the most minimal possible chance that we do well enough to lose the pick to them.

[badinage]

Right. They have such a minuscule chance of getting that pick … so, why wouldn’t they want to try to extract *some*thing? It’s either: take the two SRPs next year … or we give you someone of real value who can help you now. If I’m the Knicks, I’m taking the deal — though on the surface, sure, it looks like a major loss.

Also … I didn’t propose shipping out dear Justin Champagnie. Note the words: “a player like a Justin Champagnie …”

[dckingsfan]

Right. They have such a minuscule chance of getting that pick … so, why wouldn’t they want to try to extract *some*thing? It’s either: take the two SRPs next year … or we give you someone of real value who can help you now. If I’m the Knicks, I’m taking the deal — though on the surface, sure, it looks like a major loss.

Also … I didn’t propose shipping out dear Justin Champagnie. Note the words: “a player like a Justin Champagnie …”

Yep, it is pretty interesting that if our young players really do improve substantially - we could lose the pick. I think Vegas has the odds as very low but... where Vegas often gets it wrong is when jumps happen.

So, if you are a betting franchise (say NYK) - maybe you are interested in some SRPs.

[tontoz]

Was the "sans a championship" really necessary?

[badinage]

Re: the 2026 that is Top 8-protected —

Could we make a deal with the Knicks so that we don’t have to sweat through the season? Give them a guy, so they come out of this thing with at least something? Otherwise, they’re just going to get 2 SRPs. Wouldn’t a player like a Champagnie (who I like) be more valuable to them?

This has been discussed on multiple threads now.

We could make such a deal, but it would cancel out our pick swap rights with Phoenix. Phoenix made the swap with us under the pretense that they had limited downside risk - that they couldn't possibly fall below 8th in a swap scenario with Washington. We can't retroactively change the terms of the agreement.

Sorry, all — I’d missed this initially. Thanks for the enlightening, Nate!

[DukeLecker]

Alex Sarr is the key. A couple months back Kevin broom had an article explaining how Sarr had all nba potential. Him developing into that level of player will be what lifts all the boats in the harbor.

Keeping the pick and it being top 4 would be nice as well.

[nate33]

Alex Sarr is the key. A couple months back Kevin broom had an article explaining how Sarr had all nba potential. Him developing into that level of player will be what lifts all the boats in the harbor.

Keeping the pick and it being top 4 would be nice as well.

Yeah, I'm thinking those two things are mutually exclusive. I think there's enough talent at 1 through 4 on this roster to win maybe 30 games and put that protected pick in jeopardy. Guys like McCollum, Middleton, Bilal and maybe Tre could start on a lot of teams. JC, Cam and Kispert are competent rotation players and Bub and Kyshawn look like they will be competent rotation players this year too.

The key to our tanking this year is Sarr not yet being ready to legitimately anchor a defense. If Sarr breaks out this season, that pick is in trouble. Fortunately, I don't think that's ready to happen yet. Even if Sarr improves substantially in his skillset, he is still too weak to hold up against the big boys and the team is likely to get crushed on the glass.

I'm hoping to only see moderate improvement out of Sarr this year, and then him making a big leap in 2026-27.

[leswizards]

Winning the first pick in the draft should be assumed to be involved in all best case scenarios.

First best case scenario is a significant number of the young players show enough progress that the Wizards won’t feel that they are throwing good money after bad when the rookie contracts are up. Less than 1% chance this happens.

Second best case scenario is both Cam and Bilal improve so much that the Wizards won’t feel they are throwing good money after bad. Less than 25% chance this happens. Probably a lot less than 25%, but I don’t know how much lower than 25% to say. Probabilities goes way down when you also have to get first pick in draft.

Third best case scenario is either Cam or Bilal improves so much that the wizards will feel confident that they aren’t throwing good money after bad. Less than 50% chance this happens.

Edited to add: I forgot about the vets, so all best case scenarios also involve getting another first rounder out of a trading of one of the vets.

[WallToWall]

1. We get the #1 pick.
2. We finish with the 6th or 7th worst record, not the worst or 2nd worst...because people remember that.
3. All of our prospects are starter quality and good 2-way players, even if they dont yet mesh well. This provides the ability to make good trades.
4. our vets are traded for 1st rnd picks by the trade deadline, even if we have to use some of our 2nd rnd picks to make it happen.
5. A true #1A and/or #1B option on offense steps up, or is acquired in trade.
6, Somebody or multiple players step up to be the anchor on D.
7. Players and coaches are held accountable for good/bad plays, good wins/bad losses, preparedness.
8. no injuries

[dobrojim]

Of course getting #1#1 would be great. Now that I'm
seeing the press clippings re this draft class,
(I still need to learn more) it sounds anywhere in
the top 3-5 could be great. #1 all the better.

[dckingsfan]

Was the "sans a championship" really necessary?

Apparently

[dobrojim]

Alternative scenario however unlikely

The kids all do much better than expected but they're
still kids so we end up the best team in the lotto.
And then win a top 4 or even #1. Keep our pick and
vault next year to top 4 EC.

[dckingsfan]

Alternative scenario however unlikely

The kids all do much better than expected but they're
still kids so we end up the best team in the lotto.
And then win a top 4 or even #1. Keep our pick and
vault next year to top 4 EC.

I mean, if you are San Antonio or Dallas - you are like