2025 Offseason Thread Vol.6

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Some wild takes today I see lol

[Crazy-Canuck]

That may be the right deal. Any 20 pt scorer starts at 40 mill now

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Just curious What are some similar examples of Herro’s archetype getting paid that much? Teams seem to be trying their hardest to get rid of those type of players (high volume shots/no defense) around the league

CJ McCollum:

17/18: 24.18%
18/19: 25.29%
19/20: 25.25%
20/21: 26.9%
21/22: 27.46%
22/23: 26.96%
23/24: 26.32%
24/25: 23.71%

CJ has always been the go-to comp for Herro, and at this point, you could argue Herro might already be better than peak CJ.

Herro’s max starts at 26% of the cap (that’s the actual number in the contract, not just a raw dollar amount), which is basically the same range CJ spent most of his career in. Right now, Herro’s at 20%, and a raise is reasonable, he’s done what’s been asked of him. There’s not a huge gap between 20% and 26%.

The real question is: do they think locking him in now at ~26% is safer than risking him making another All-Star team, or even All-NBA and then asking for 30% or 35% next year? That might be more costly down the line

There is a relatively low risk of the deal becoming hard to move, at worst he becomes a salary to match for a better player down the line

That's an apple to oranges comparison. You are comparing contracts at their peak for 1 way scoring guards like cj, lavine, etc.. They all got paid.

The landscape has changed. The 1 way scoring guards have been neutered this off season.

There is no more middle class, it's either 50M + deal or a sub 20M deal if you are a scorer.

Herro is the poster boy for the 1 way scoring guard. He's probably the best version of this archtype in the league right now.

Similar archtypes (1 way scoring guards) this off season:
Cam Thomas unsigned (who compared himself to herro btw)
Beal bought out and 2/11 with clipps
Clarkson 1/3.6 knicks
Mann 3/24 Hornets
LaVert 2/29 Pistons
Dlo 2/13
Thjr 1/3.6

Just an example of what herro is going to fight for.

Others in the news this off season.

Poole traded
Cj traded
Simons traded
Powell traded
Monk no one wants
Reeves turned down his extension (mistake)

You max him to be the 1A or you trade him. He doesn't work as the 2nd option because he doesn't provide much outside of scoring.

And if you believe he's your 1A, then a value contract is possible (goes for Powell as well). This archtype has nill value atm, but swung so far in one direction that there could be a correction in the future.

[Vertical Limit]

The Herro delusion is still running strong on some homer fans.

Here is the reality, he isnt going to get an extension, and we are moving on after the upcoming season when the Heat completely blows it up. Riley even at his old age knows that Herro is a limited scorer and doesnt provide much without volume.

But you all keep trying to justify to the fans that Herro is worthy. 50m per season for empty seats coming soon.

[SerialChiller]

Read on Twitter

Damn I miss Wade. Last I checked he was like 21st all time in dunks ahead of guys such as Blake Griffin and Vince Carter even ! And he has the most blocks for a guard as well, pretty incredible!

[Kobewade11]

:lol:

The Herro delusion is still running strong on some homer fans.

Here is the reality, he isnt going to get an extension, and we are moving on after the upcoming season when the Heat completely blows it up. Riley even at his old age knows that Herro is a limited scorer and doesnt provide much without volume.

But you all keep trying to justify to the fans that Herro is worthy. 50m per season for empty seats coming soon.

And conversely, the “hate” is still running strong from our resident trolls.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

:lol:

The Herro delusion is still running strong on some homer fans.

Here is the reality, he isnt going to get an extension, and we are moving on after the upcoming season when the Heat completely blows it up. Riley even at his old age knows that Herro is a limited scorer and doesnt provide much without volume.

But you all keep trying to justify to the fans that Herro is worthy. 50m per season for empty seats coming soon.

They’re 100% going to extend him if not this summer than the next lol. It’s the wrong move but it’s what they’ll do, they’ve been delusional about him since day 1 it’s not going to stop now

[Vertical Limit]

:lol:

The Herro delusion is still running strong on some homer fans.

Here is the reality, he isnt going to get an extension, and we are moving on after the upcoming season when the Heat completely blows it up. Riley even at his old age knows that Herro is a limited scorer and doesnt provide much without volume.

But you all keep trying to justify to the fans that Herro is worthy. 50m per season for empty seats coming soon.

They’re 100% going to extend him if not this summer than the next lol. It’s the wrong move but it’s what they’ll do, they’ve been delusional about him since day 1 it’s not going to stop now

I refuse to believe that we have become the Washington Wizards. There is no way they extend a player like Herro, who does not move the needle. It would be the Beal contract mistake again.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

:lol:

The Herro delusion is still running strong on some homer fans.

Here is the reality, he isnt going to get an extension, and we are moving on after the upcoming season when the Heat completely blows it up. Riley even at his old age knows that Herro is a limited scorer and doesnt provide much without volume.

But you all keep trying to justify to the fans that Herro is worthy. 50m per season for empty seats coming soon.

They’re 100% going to extend him if not this summer than the next lol. It’s the wrong move but it’s what they’ll do, they’ve been delusional about him since day 1 it’s not going to stop now

I refuse to believe that we have become the Washington Wizards. There is no way they extend a player like Herro, who does not move the needle. It would be the Beal contract mistake again.

Stay tun3d.

[contract]

If Herro was offered the exact same contract as last time, it would still be an overpay.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Keep that pivot foot down fellas, FOX IS A HEATLE!!!!

[contract]

:lol:

The Herro delusion is still running strong on some homer fans.

Here is the reality, he isnt going to get an extension, and we are moving on after the upcoming season when the Heat completely blows it up. Riley even at his old age knows that Herro is a limited scorer and doesnt provide much without volume.

But you all keep trying to justify to the fans that Herro is worthy. 50m per season for empty seats coming soon.

They’re 100% going to extend him if not this summer than the next lol. It’s the wrong move but it’s what they’ll do, they’ve been delusional about him since day 1 it’s not going to stop now

I refuse to believe that we have become the Washington Wizards. There is no way they extend a player like Herro, who does not move the needle. It would be the Beal contract mistake again.

Thank god Tyler isn't eligible for a no trade clause yet.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Read on Twitter

Keep that pivot foot down fellas, FOX IS A HEATLE!!!!

If you assume bam is off the table and rozier is the filler: (ignoring picks)

Team A

Fox
Herro
Powell
Bam
Ware

Team B

Fox
Powell
Wiggins
Bam
Ware

Riley might prefer Team A.

[VaDe255]

Spoiler:

Just curious What are some similar examples of Herro’s archetype getting paid that much? Teams seem to be trying their hardest to get rid of those type of players (high volume shots/no defense) around the league

CJ McCollum:

17/18: 24.18%
18/19: 25.29%
19/20: 25.25%
20/21: 26.9%
21/22: 27.46%
22/23: 26.96%
23/24: 26.32%
24/25: 23.71%

CJ has always been the go-to comp for Herro, and at this point, you could argue Herro might already be better than peak CJ.

Herro’s max starts at 26% of the cap (that’s the actual number in the contract, not just a raw dollar amount), which is basically the same range CJ spent most of his career in. Right now, Herro’s at 20%, and a raise is reasonable, he’s done what’s been asked of him. There’s not a huge gap between 20% and 26%.

The real question is: do they think locking him in now at ~26% is safer than risking him making another All-Star team, or even All-NBA and then asking for 30% or 35% next year? That might be more costly down the line

There is a relatively low risk of the deal becoming hard to move, at worst he becomes a salary to match for a better player down the line

That's an apple to oranges comparison. You are comparing contracts at their peak for 1 way scoring guards like cj, lavine, etc.. They all got paid.

The landscape has changed. The 1 way scoring guards have been neutered this off season.

There is no more middle class, it's either 50M + deal or a sub 20M deal if you are a scorer.

Herro is the poster boy for the 1 way scoring guard. He's probably the best version of this archtype in the league right now.

Similar archtypes (1 way scoring guards) this off season:
Cam Thomas unsigned (who compared himself to herro btw)
Beal bought out and 2/11 with clipps
Clarkson 1/3.6 knicks
Mann 3/24 Hornets
LaVert 2/29 Pistons
Dlo 2/13
Thjr 1/3.6

Just an example of what herro is going to fight for.

Others in the news this off season.

Poole traded
Cj traded
Simons traded
Powell traded
Monk no one wants
Reeves turned down his extension (mistake)

You max him to be the 1A or you trade him. He doesn't work as the 2nd option because he doesn't provide much outside of scoring.

And if you believe he's your 1A, then a value contract is possible (goes for Powell as well). This archtype has nill value atm, but swung so far in one direction that there could be a correction in the future.

i) The “archetype” argument is a lazy, binary take that doesn’t reflect how the NBA actually works. It’s mostly fans making stuff up on the fly to vent frustration or push agendas.

Lumping all scoring guards into one “doomed-to-fail” bucket completely ignores context, individual skill level and actual team-building strategy. There’s a wide spectrum of offensive guards in the league. Herro isn’t some mindless chucker with no playmaking or adaptability. Comparing him to Cam Thomas or Clarkson is borderline comical, they don’t even perform the same role on the floor.

There’s a big difference between average volume scorers and guys who bend defenses with both on- and off-ball gravity, consistent midrange and perimeter creation and enough versatility to scale their game based on the roster around them.

ii) Herro’s skillset is rare and valuable, one of the hardest to find. You can’t just grab a G-Leaguer and turn him into an elite scorer, but you can take one and turn him into a 3&D guy. If Herro continues performing at last year’s level, he’s on track for multiple All-Star appearances and if the team wins at a high level, potentially All-NBA consideration too.

- Elite C&S threat: Among the best shooters in the league off the catch
- Elite movement shooter: Constant relocation, off-screen menace, Herro regularly logs the highest mileage on the court with ~2.8 miles per game
- Elite scoring efficiency: 60% TS on high usage places him among the top tier guards in the league
- Finishing ability: Exceptional for a guard, 62% at the rim on good volume, which is equal to guys like Brunson (61%), Spida (59%), Garland (62%), Curry (61%)
- Gravity creation: Defenses are forced to account for him constantly, both on and off the ball, stretching spacing well beyond the arc
- Secondary playmaking: Read-and-react game has improved significantly; makes quicker decisions, maintains a low TOV% despite high usage (5.5 APG last season, close to 6 APG post-Jimmy)
- Borderline elite pull-up game: From all areas of the floor, one of the toughest shot profiles to master

Sure, sounds exactly like Cam Thomas, Clarkson, and Mann, right?

iii) Cam hasn’t been durable, missed a large chunk of last season and remains a very one dimensional scorer. This offseason also featured virtually no cap space across the league. Guys like Giddey, Grimes and Kuminga are about to find out what that means, too. This isn’t about archetype, it’s about timing and flexibility.

iv) Beal’s deal was 35%/5y with a NTC. LaVine’s was 30%/5y. Those are not remotely comparable to what Herro would get, even at 26%/3y max if extended this October. Even Beal, despite his contract, returned value in a trade before his decline.
LaVine had serious durability concerns and the Bulls still moved off him just fine.

I’d suggest stopping the raw dollar comparisons, what matters is the percentage of the cap, which is also what’s actually written in the contract. Herro is earning 20% now and will likely get a raise after getting the All-Star nod and doing exactly what Pat and Spo asked of him. There really isn’t much of a gap between 20% and 26% to fit in that raise
At this point, fans are arguing over a few percentage points of the cap, this isn’t what’s going to change the team’s ceiling either way

There’s really only one reason Herro wouldn’t get extended: if the Heat don’t want him longterm or don’t believe last season is representative of his real value. In that case, they’d just wait it out. That runs contrary to what Pat said about Herro in the presser and doesn’t align with his upward trajectory but of course, deeper plans and info could be in play that we don’t know about.
That’s the only real objective basis for the extension uncertainty

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

[contract]

ii) Herro’s skillset is rare and valuable, one of the hardest to find. You can’t just grab a G-Leaguer and turn him into an elite scorer, but you can take one and turn him into a 3&D guy. If Herro continues performing at last year’s level, he’s on track for multiple All-Star appearances and if the team wins at a high level, potentially All-NBA consideration too.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_2025_voting-backcourt-eastern-conference.html

Tyler finished 9th among Eastern Conference guards in all star voting (10th in fan voting; 10th in player voting; and got 0 votes from media voters).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_2025_voting-backcourt-western-conference.html

He finished 20th among all NBA guards (18th in fan voting; 21th in player voting; and got 0 votes from media voters).

Tap the brakes on the All NBA considerations.

The rest of the NBA (fans/players/media) are not nearly as impressed with Tyler Herro as the Heat and some Heat fans.

The legend of Tyler Herro is almost exclusively a local one.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

Looks like Philly might be cooked again. Let’s go snag Maxey while they transition to the new era!

[3ammy3uck3ts]

It would take a MASSIVE amount of injuries for Tyler to make all nba and the team would also have to be very good on top of that. I don’t see it, he didn’t get a single vote last season.

Dame being gone and the Haliburton injury definitely help him with the all star game though. There’s not much talent at guard in the East.

[Hallstar]

It would take a MASSIVE amount of injuries for Tyler to make all nba and the team would also have to be very good on top of that. I don’t see it, he didn’t get a single vote last season.

Dame being gone and the Haliburton injury definitely help him with the all star game though. There’s not much talent at guard in the East.

allnba is rep and team level

What was Steph's production that warranted second team last year?

If we win 47+ games allnba becomes a possibilty

[VaDe255]

ii) Herro’s skillset is rare and valuable, one of the hardest to find. You can’t just grab a G-Leaguer and turn him into an elite scorer, but you can take one and turn him into a 3&D guy. If Herro continues performing at last year’s level, he’s on track for multiple All-Star appearances and if the team wins at a high level, potentially All-NBA consideration too.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_2025_voting-backcourt-eastern-conference.html

Tyler finished 9th among Eastern Conference guards in all star voting (10th in fan voting; 10th in player voting; and got 0 votes from media voters).

https://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_2025_voting-backcourt-western-conference.html

He finished 20th among all NBA guards (18th in fan voting; 21th in player voting; and got 0 votes from media voters).

Tap the brakes on the All NBA considerations.

The rest of the NBA (fans/players/media) are not nearly as impressed with Tyler Herro as the Heat and some Heat fans.

The legend of Tyler Herro is almost exclusively a local one.

Fan votes? Really? Let’s not pretend fan voting is a meaningful barometer for actual player value. It’s largely a popularity contest driven by how flashy a player is and big name reputation not nuanced basketball evaluation. Getting recognized by coaches, who actually gameplan against these players, is far more meaningful than where fans or even media place someone in All-Star voting.

All-NBA selections are heavily tied to team success. The Heat won just 37 games last year. That doesn’t mean Herro's individual performance wasn’t elite. He averaged 23.9 PPG (on 60% TS), 5.5 APG, and 5.2 RPG with strong playmaking, improved decision making and significant on- and off-ball gravity. If Miami bounces back, lands a top 5 or 6 seed and Herro produces at the same level, then yes, he's squarely in the All-NBA conversation. The bar and the narrative shifts fast with team success.

I’m just trying to balance the scales when it comes to Herro and the way he’s dismissed often doesn’t match the reality. He’s a highly talented offensive player who’s developed every year and has contributed to winning. Part of the disconnect might be that Herro doesn’t fit the stereotypical “Heat Culture” mold, he’s not a gritty, defensive minded role player who takes charges and flexes after. He’s finesse- and skill-focused, relying heavily on IQ and craft to overcome his physical deficiencies. For some fans, that doesn’t “feel” like a Miami guy, especially when the franchise has been defined by players like Wade, Butler, Bam, UD, and gritty G-Leaguers, but that aesthetic bias shouldn’t override the actual value he brings.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

It would take a MASSIVE amount of injuries for Tyler to make all nba and the team would also have to be very good on top of that. I don’t see it, he didn’t get a single vote last season.

Dame being gone and the Haliburton injury definitely help him with the all star game though. There’s not much talent at guard in the East.

allnba is rep and team level

What was Steph's production that warranted second team last year?

If we win 47+ games allnba becomes a possibilty

He has no rep though and I agree rep does matter. It’s why Kobe was getting awards over Wade he didn’t deserve. Steph still had a better year than Tyler in a much tougher conference seeing much more attention defensively. Keep in mind this isn’t determined by position any more either, it’s just an open pool. He had the best season of his career by far and didn’t get a vote, it would take a lot for him to get in. He could possibly get some votes though.