Did Zach Lowe identify some convincing points for being low on Raptors?

[tsherkin]

Health permitted, we should be expecting this team to be about mid-pack offensively.

That is my guess, health permitting, as well.

[Harry Palmer]

I’m not as 100% sure on him as the Rockets are, but I have learned to really respect their scouting/evaluation nous and Reed had such an odd stop-and-start rookie season with a few different injuries etc. that they saw a lot more of him than the fans did. I’m interested, did you scout him much coming out, and if so what did you think?

No, Lord no. I hate college ball, I barely watch any of it all because it's so dull to me.

But Sheppard BLAZED from downtown in college, and he's a good FT shooter, so I can see anything of what they might be thinking about in terms of potential. But he's 6'1.75" barefoot and about 182 lbs, +1.5 wingspan, huge vert. Unremarkable lane agility, unremarkable shuttle run, decent 3/4 court sprint. Book on him from everything I've read is about the same as that: meh athleticism with weak defensive upside, solid playmaking, excellent shooting.

He's not likely to do any of the big-time comparisons I saw, I'd imagine. He's short and doesn't have reach. He apparently has pretty good timing in the passing lanes.

Otoh he’s a better athlete than most of those guys,

Is he, beyond raw vertical leap? His speed isn't crazy, and that's ultimately a lot more important than max vert.

We'll see what happens. He had a rough transition to the NBA and looked horrible. So whether he becomes Trajan Langdon 2.0 or something more interesting will have to wait until we see how this upcoming season goes.

Athletically I think you’re off a bit. First, though he can jump and dunk easily, I don’t think his jumping is nearly as good as his vertical suggests. He’s a good leaper, no more. But he is exceptional at other aspects, notably he has some of the best eye-handling coordination I’ve ever seen (I’ve seen content guys I respect, not Rocket guys either, say he has the best eye-handling coordination they have ever seen.) and he’s got breaks and snakes for days and though he doesn’t do it too often has eye-popping lateral movement. But when saying better athlete than those guys I admit I was lazily going off the vert I don’t even think translates that well, so fair cop. One other thing about him is he’s one of those rarest of shooters who is great off both the catch and the bounce, ie more Steph stuff. But, yeah, some 3 point specialist (though that means more in today’s game than Langdon’s) is definitely a possibility.

A lot of my optimism is based on how the rockets feel, and that would mean nothing to me if it was just words, but they put their money where their mouth is at the trade table…reportedly only Amen is valued higher…so it Carrie’s more weight.

[tsherkin]

Athletically I think you’re off a bit. First, though he can jump and dunk easily, I don’t think his jumping is nearly as good as his vertical suggests. He’s a good leaper, no more. But he is exceptional at other aspects,

Yes, I was speaking of run-jump athleticism. And then I did mention his timing in the passing lanes, which largely speaks to anticipation and coordination. But for a little dude, lack of speed is a big problem for upper bound. And much of what I've read about his game speaks to limitation more than anything else, emphasizing his shooting and generally downplaying most other aspects of his game.

A lot of my optimism is based on how the rockets feel, and that would mean nothing to me if it was just words, but they put their money where their mouth is at the trade table…reportedly only Amen is valued higher…so it Carrie’s more weight.

Yeah, I guess? I don't know enough about them to invest much in that thought process at this point. What I do know is that he's a small dude with weak reach and unremarkable quickness who is known for his shooting more than anything else. I know most sites were calling him not a natural/pure point and labeling him an undersized 2. I know they are projecting FVV-like defensive potential with his ability to hold ground against bigger guards. I know NBADraft.net says he gambles too much on D, and struggles against good defenses, with weakness as a creator, and that he specifically struggles breaking down defenders in isolation, says he "lacks a high ceiling." Which about fits for the way the draft has gone and his slot and so far these past 5, 10 years. They also seem to think he's best-suited playing a specific role, and doesn't have a very versatile game. Peachtree describes his unremarkable physical tools, notes that he isn't explosive, and that he's an excellent C+S player who can also shoot on the move. They call him a "connective off-ball point guard," for what it's worth.

To my eye, cruising highlight videos, his end-to-end speed looks good. His vision looks reasonable. He clearly has NBA range, so his major struggles as a rookie should eventually clear up, at least in theory. I can definitely see how he plays the lanes and rotates down for help, have seen some on-ball blocks and stuff. The hustle is there. Definitely has active hands. He showed at least some of that in the SL against the Clippers team.

Do I see 3rd overall pick? Offensive titan? No, not really. I see a best-case Fred VanVleet type player. He has a basic rocker game where he can go right eventually and get to the rim against SL type defenses. Doesn't have great acceleration, but like the scouting report says, uses angles well. No fancy handles. Not a ton of mid-range anything, just rim or 3, which keeps bringing me back to Fred.

I dunno. We'll see what year 2 looks like.

[YogurtProducer]

Yes, but it wont be on this team probably. Typically, guys that teams move off of get the boot. It's like "hey, would you take a pay-cut and a lesser role". Nobody wants to hear that.

You can transition into a role that suits you without being traded lol

Happens literally all the time where young guys are given a green light then it gets reigned in as the team improves.

With max eligible guys? That's a whole different conversation. That's a break up.

You ever heard of teams with multiple max players..? This really is not that crazy of a concept. It is nothing like "would you take a pay cut and a lesser role", it is literally still making max money while slotting down the pecking order

[Los_29]

It really wasn't that long ago that people said the same thing about the Pacers and Cavs.

They traded for elite offensive players to change their fate.

There's a small chance Quickley becomes that guy, he can shoot and his defence isn't bad for a modern starting PG, but at least one of his passing/creativity/finishing inside would have to make a dramatic leap forward for him to pull a Lowry/Kemba/Dragic/Oladipo/Cassell/Billups and break out at 25 or older. It's hard to see because he's not a special athlete like Oladipo or physical like Billups or Lowry or creative/herky jerky as Dragic but Cassell and Kemba offer hope as comps.

Or there's a trade like the Cavs or Pacers made for their offensive centerpiece.

Cavs - Markannen + Sexton + Agbaji + 2 firsts + 3 swaps
Pacers - Sabonis.

If - next summer or deadline - we can turn RJ's expiring + Murray-Boyles + Gradey + 3 firsts + 2 Swaps (Markannen at the time still > RJ by a swap to a first I'd say, for shooting big upside) into a star, or Scottie Barnes straight up for an offensive star, then yeah we'll be in decent shape.

Plausible targets seem like maybe:

-Dylan Harper or Castle (if they don't want to move Fox) from the Spurs glut of guards (Castle was not efficient and it's not clear he can shoot but 72% from the line at age 20 and a Quickley-Castle backcourt looks like a nice fit)

-Jaden Ivey, good athlete, shot well last year and they had success without him so maybe they'd move him for the right package?

-Lamelo, classic always injured star and kind of an idiot, but a walking paint touch who can shoot and pass gives us an entry into a top 18 offense, which we don't have right now (the entire top 18 had an offensive star who bends defences or sacrificed defence with a passing skilled center in the form of Sengun and Sabonis, which for us would mean Barnes starting at C, or possibly Murray-Boyles if he truly is the 2nd best underclassman in the draft after Flagg like his BPM showed)

-Garland, probably would have to involve a Quickley deal, but if they don't make a conference finals they gotta go after some wings at the expense of Garland and/or Allen

-McCain or Maxey, seems unlikely they get deal, but McCain's efficiency was pretty great as a rookie and if Edgecombe is at the 2, it might make sense for them to trade one of the smaller guards for a forward or big, as Embiid and Paul George are probably cooked.

-Reed Sheppard, seems really unlikely, but KD is 37 and if they're a title contender, trading Sheppard + Finney-Smith for Quickley could be intriguing for them:

Sengun-Adams
Jabari-Eason
KD-Eason
Amen-Quickley
Quickley-VanVleet

is a pretty damn great 8 man rotation with guys like Capela, Aaron Holliday and Tate probably capable of providing 10 minutes a night without killing you.

For us, we'd be hoping Sheppard, like Billups, can turn his shooting and good hands into being a star guard.

-Jalen Green, the stats, passing and defence aren't there, but he does have talent and might be real cheap.

-Cam Thomas, similar to Green but he's a better scorer and probably even more selfish. But some guys mature late or can be reached by a different coach/organization.

That was all I could come up with for guards who aren't stars or are but might be movable and you could see becoming the kind of offensive player we just don't have on the roster. Ingram can score, but he's not going to bend a defence unless he's a very late bloomer himself and can completely change where he gets his shot attempts from (which I think is a function of his lack of strength and speed and not low b-ball IQ), and stays healthy.

Unless the wheels fall completely off, there is absolutely no chance. The Rockets refused to move him for KD, you think they’d move him for IQ?!?! The Rockets are completely in love with him, before the KD trade it was widely believed that they viewed him as their best offensive talent and now envision him as the guy who is most likely to assume the scoring leader mantle when KG retires/declines. They really see a ~ Steph-esque guy, or maybe a Steph-FVV hybrid with more athleticism.

The reasons he saw so few minutes last year were a) crazy depth b) injuries c) the big one, defence. Udoka’s first rule is you don’t play until you can be trusted defensively and while Reed looks like a very disruptive defender, he’s going to surprise people with stocks, he was not versed enough in Ime’s defensive principles last year to be trusted and was sometimes hunted as a result. They expect a much mugger role this year, and even though they ARE a contender now, they have been very vocal about maintaining the long-term view, and virtually every Rockets insider says they are more excited about him now than they were when they drafted him/considered him Number 1 on their board.

Honestly, they’d consider the offer insulting imo.

Wow, where did you hear this from? I like Reed but he’s nowhere near as good as you or Rockets fans think he is. And he most certainly isn’t taking over scoring duties when KD retires.

I’ve seen comps to FVV, Hinrich, White, Lowry, DDV, Price. I like those comparisons. He’s not a guy that’s going to take over a game.

[ForeverTFC]

Sorry if this has been posted, just got around to Zach's Monday pod. He had IQ on his most intriguing players list and said IQ will be the determine whether we have a good season or a meh season (unless the spacing is truly so bad that it doesn't matter).

[tsherkin]

Sorry if this has been posted, just got around to Zach's Monday pod. He had IQ on his most intriguing players list and said IQ will be the determine whether we have a good season or a meh season (unless the spacing is truly so bad that it doesn't matter).

IQ has a lot of potential for us. He's like a 17/5 kind of player with a strong ATB 3pt shot, crushes it at the line, he's even pretty good at GETTING to the line. He hovers around league-average efficiency in years he isn't injured. He's been about a -6 TSAdd player for three seasons now, TS+ of 100, 99 and 99. So we can give him a little extra room to move, help him get back to the better finishing in close he had the previous two seasons and get him a little more passing support on his shots, we've got a high-teens scorer who can be quite useful to us.

[ForeverTFC]

Sorry if this has been posted, just got around to Zach's Monday pod. He had IQ on his most intriguing players list and said IQ will be the determine whether we have a good season or a meh season (unless the spacing is truly so bad that it doesn't matter).

IQ has a lot of potential for us. He's like a 17/5 kind of player with a strong ATB 3pt shot, crushes it at the line, he's even pretty good at GETTING to the line. He hovers around league-average efficiency in years he isn't injured. He's been about a -6 TSAdd player for three seasons now, TS+ of 100, 99 and 99. So we can give him a little extra room to move, help him get back to the better finishing in close he had the previous two seasons and get him a little more passing support on his shots, we've got a high-teens scorer who can be quite useful to us.

His bull thesis went beyond this. Specifically called out the theoretical 2-man game with Scottie, especially with him as a screen setter for Scottie. And that if IQ digs in, he has above average defensive potential. The former though also hinges on Scottie who seems to have little interest in a good PnR game...

[tsherkin]

His bull thesis went beyond this. Specifically called out the theoretical 2-man game with Scottie, especially with him as a screen setter for Scottie. And that if IQ digs in, he has above average defensive potential. The former though also hinges on Scottie who seems to have little interesting in a good PnR game...

Interesting. Well, we'll see. IQ is going to be a big help just being on the court for us, so hopefully that plays in well with BI and everything else.

[DreamTeam09]

Watch on YouTube

Orlando was trying desperately to win this game, checking the box score we were down by 5 at the half and then walloped then in the 3rd 31-19
We tried to tank & left RJ out there with rookie Shead, rookie Walter, undrafted battle, 10 day Roden, former 10 day Lawson n rest of the season Robinson + recently waived Castleton. We proceeded to pull RJ all the while Banchero is going crazy and Issac is actually contributing & we still won with a Walter 3
Announcer said we swept central Florida so we beat Miami the game prior, I'm assuming trying to tank
We went 3-1 against Orlando, all games after January

[Potential]

Zach Low we'll prove you wrong buddy. The pieces fit. This team will work flawlessly.

[seanbig]

I was high on Barnes as a rookie

But his shooting has hit a wall as his eq is an issue at times

IQ is just bad and I’m out on him

[tsherkin]

IQ is just bad and I’m out on him

Based on what?

[nivisi9]

Sorry if this has been posted, just got around to Zach's Monday pod. He had IQ on his most intriguing players list and said IQ will be the determine whether we have a good season or a meh season (unless the spacing is truly so bad that it doesn't matter).

IQ has a lot of potential for us. He's like a 17/5 kind of player with a strong ATB 3pt shot, crushes it at the line, he's even pretty good at GETTING to the line. He hovers around league-average efficiency in years he isn't injured. He's been about a -6 TSAdd player for three seasons now, TS+ of 100, 99 and 99. So we can give him a little extra room to move, help him get back to the better finishing in close he had the previous two seasons and get him a little more passing support on his shots, we've got a high-teens scorer who can be quite useful to us.

can someone explain to me why IQ is below average efficiency for someone who shoots like 42% 3PT on high volume?

I always not really getting when I read about IQ not being efficient for a guard.

Isnt the high efficiency 3pt shooting suppose to increase true shooting?

or in the case of him maintaining high efficiency + high volume 3PT this season (something like 42%) where are the other areas he can likely improve in a "breakout yr" that will have his high efficiency 3PT shooting play in his favor for increasing overall efficiency?

[ForeverTFC]

Sorry if this has been posted, just got around to Zach's Monday pod. He had IQ on his most intriguing players list and said IQ will be the determine whether we have a good season or a meh season (unless the spacing is truly so bad that it doesn't matter).

IQ has a lot of potential for us. He's like a 17/5 kind of player with a strong ATB 3pt shot, crushes it at the line, he's even pretty good at GETTING to the line. He hovers around league-average efficiency in years he isn't injured. He's been about a -6 TSAdd player for three seasons now, TS+ of 100, 99 and 99. So we can give him a little extra room to move, help him get back to the better finishing in close he had the previous two seasons and get him a little more passing support on his shots, we've got a high-teens scorer who can be quite useful to us.

can someone explain to me why IQ is below average efficiency for someone who shoots like 42% 3PT on high volume?

I always not really getting when I read about IQ not being efficient for a guard.

Isnt the high efficiency 3pt shooting suppose to increase true shooting?

or in the case of him maintaining high efficiency + high volume 3PT this season (something like 42%) where are the other areas he can likely improve in a "breakout yr" that will have his high efficiency 3PT shooting play in his favor for increasing overall efficiency?

Others know this much better than I do, but I think it has to do with his inability to get to the rim. Leads to more mid-range/floaters which are low % and less free throw attempts. So the 3 point % is high, but his 2pT % is low and lack of free throws further lowers his efficiency. As the lead ball handler with that much usage, you need more from him than just the 3s.

[DreamTeam09]

Watch on YouTube

[tsherkin]

can someone explain to me why IQ is below average efficiency for someone who shoots like 42% 3PT on high volume?

So for starters, he's shot 39.5% and 37.8% from 3 while with the Raptors. And has never shot more than 39.5% over a season, full or partial. Things would be different to at least some extent were he shooting 42%, but he's not.

Beyond that, he's functionally useless inside the arc. Quick's a career 86 2P+ guy (for 2pt FG% relative to league average), and 83 2P+ as a Raptor. He's quite good at drawing fouls, is excellent at the line, but basically never gets to the rim.

Lest one mope, "but tsherkin, he's a little guard! how dare you compare him to the league average which includes big men" like a big ol' whiner...

Jaylen Brown: 102 2P+
Trae Young: 91 2P+
34 yo Jrue Holiday: 100 2P+ (99 on his career)
Donovan Mitchell: 96
Darius Garland: 92
Kyrie Irving: 101
Spencer Dinwiddie: 101
Jamal Murray: 95
36 yo Russell Westbrook: 95 (career 94)
Cade: 91
Chris Paul: 103
De'Aaron Fox: 98
Tyrese Maxey: 94
Jalen Suggs: 92
Jalen Brunson: 99
Ant: 94
Lillard: 97
Ja Morant: 97
Marcus Smart: 84
De'Angelo Russel: 92
Norman Powell: 100
Jalen Green: 89
TJ McConnell: 92
FVV: 82


So you can see that Quick ends up in the bottom third, with guys like FVV, Jalen Green, Marcus Smart, etc.

Now, Quickley's Toronto-specific sample has him with 38 GP after the trade and 33 this year, and he's been crap in both. The truth of it is probably closer to the 88 TS+ he averaged with the Knicks than the 83 he's averaged with us. Somehow, he was actually BETTER in 2025 than right after the trade, which is screwed. At least, though, we have an ostensibly improved offensive environment for him to come back into, which should help.

But yeah, TL;DR?

He's horrible at getting to the rim, he's quite bad at hitting shots inside the arc, even for a small guard, and he's not as good a 3pt shooter as you think he is.