VaDe255 wrote:
i) The “archetype” argument is a lazy, binary take that doesn’t reflect how the NBA actually works. It’s mostly fans making stuff up on the fly to vent frustration or push agendas.
Lumping all scoring guards into one “doomed-to-fail” bucket completely ignores context, individual skill level and actual team-building strategy. There’s a wide spectrum of offensive guards in the league. Herro isn’t some mindless chucker with no playmaking or adaptability. Comparing him to Cam Thomas or Clarkson is borderline comical, they don’t even perform the same role on the floor.
There’s a big difference between average volume scorers and guys who bend defenses with both on- and off-ball gravity, consistent midrange and perimeter creation and enough versatility to scale their game based on the roster around them.
ii) Herro’s skillset is rare and valuable, one of the hardest to find. You can’t just grab a G-Leaguer and turn him into an elite scorer, but you can take one and turn him into a 3&D guy. If Herro continues performing at last year’s level, he’s on track for multiple All-Star appearances and if the team wins at a high level, potentially All-NBA consideration too.
- Elite C&S threat: Among the best shooters in the league off the catch
- Elite movement shooter: Constant relocation, off-screen menace, Herro regularly logs the highest mileage on the court with ~2.8 miles per game
- Elite scoring efficiency: 60% TS on high usage places him among the top tier guards in the league
- Finishing ability: Exceptional for a guard, 62% at the rim on good volume, which is equal to guys like Brunson (61%), Spida (59%), Garland (62%), Curry (61%)
- Gravity creation: Defenses are forced to account for him constantly, both on and off the ball, stretching spacing well beyond the arc
- Secondary playmaking: Read-and-react game has improved significantly; makes quicker decisions, maintains a low TOV% despite high usage (5.5 APG last season, close to 6 APG post-Jimmy)
- Borderline elite pull-up game: From all areas of the floor, one of the toughest shot profiles to master
Sure, sounds exactly like Cam Thomas, Clarkson, and Mann, right?
iii) Cam hasn’t been durable, missed a large chunk of last season and remains a very one dimensional scorer. This offseason also featured virtually no cap space across the league. Guys like Giddey, Grimes and Kuminga are about to find out what that means, too. This isn’t about archetype, it’s about timing and flexibility.
iv) Beal’s deal was 35%/5y with a NTC. LaVine’s was 30%/5y. Those are not remotely comparable to what Herro would get, even at 26%/3y max if extended this October. Even Beal, despite his contract, returned value in a trade before his decline.
LaVine had serious durability concerns and the Bulls still moved off him just fine.
I’d suggest stopping the raw dollar comparisons, what matters is the percentage of the cap, which is also what’s actually written in the contract. Herro is earning 20% now and will likely get a raise after getting the All-Star nod and doing exactly what Pat and Spo asked of him. There really isn’t much of a gap between 20% and 26% to fit in that raise
At this point, fans are arguing over a few percentage points of the cap, this isn’t what’s going to change the team’s ceiling either way
There’s really only one reason Herro wouldn’t get extended: if the Heat don’t want him longterm or don’t believe last season is representative of his real value. In that case, they’d just wait it out. That runs contrary to what Pat said about Herro in the presser and doesn’t align with his upward trajectory but of course, deeper plans and info could be in play that we don’t know about.
That’s the only real objective basis for the extension uncertainty
Very good points
