Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[nomorezorro]

fox's all star year is looking a lot like luol deng 06-07 season

Deng was a pretty consistent player throughout his career in 06-07 he averaged 18/7/2.5. From 08-13 he averaged 16.5/6.4/2.5. He was more an all around player then scorer and thanks to the Bulls winning he got some All Star appearances. Fox is more when he was the #1 option, he could put up big scoring numbers but when he isn't the top guy he doesn't bring much to make up for it.

i just mean in terms of it being a pretty extreme outlier FG%/efficiency season, built on the back of a career-high 2pt fg% that he wasn't able to come close to again in the rest of his time here

deng was still good after that, but people assumed he would be able to maintain/build on that level of performance considering he was just 21 years old. and it turned out he just never was *that* good again.

[Jcool0]

He was all NBA 3rd team a couple years ago and led the Kings to the 3rd seed in the West as the best player. He's a plus NBA athlete and has a history of being ultra clutch when the defense locks in on him and still generate good shots / success. On high leverage moments he can play both ends of the floor.

He is coming off a down year, but he's been a 20+ PER guy in 5 of the past 7 years and is entering his athletic peak. I don't think he's a no brainer max guy by any stretch, but I definitely get it. People pay for what you can do at your peak in high leverage moments.

What does what he did 3 years ago have to do with him now? He has gotten worse every year since then. FWIW when they had the 3rd seed & he was the best player, they lost in round 1 to the 6th seed GS & in the deciding game he shot 26% and had 5 turnovers and the Kings lost by 20. He is now on a team with two other players that will eat into his minutes. If they made a promise to resign him i can somewhat understand but outside of that it was a dumb move to give him big money.

You’re cherry-picking 1 bad closing game? He averaged 27/5/8/2 in that series (against the reigning champs), and had a (good) playoff PER of 18.9. Kings might’ve had the better record, but they were the underdogs. It was 2Y ago, but the mediocre Kings roster just kept declining in a conference with 12 good teams.

Harper and Castle are behind Fox on the depth chart. It’s a wonderful luxury having 3 two-way PGs.

Harper will need time, too. Wemby’s ready for a run in May. Maxing Fox was a no-brainer, short of trying to see what happens next. He would easily get a max offer on next year’s open market.

I am not cherry picking anything. In his best year they got knocked out in around 1 and in a blowout game with him playing bad. Playoffs is where the top players make there mark. Also FWIW Fox is not a good defender & as far as i know so far neither is Harper. So they do not have 3 two way PGs. Fox would 100% not get a max offer next year. You did see how little market LaVine had and he is a better player then Fox. I bet if SA could do it over then would of taken Zach which would of been a much better fit.

[sco]

If the Bulls traded multiple firsts for Fox and paid him nearly 60M, we'd be having a meltdown right now. He's a good player, but I don't see how average offensive efficiency for a player who's largely valued for his offense justifies the price tag.

I don't think that's a Porsche. Maybe a Camaro or a Charger?

I think SA was looking for a vet scoring PG to help advance Wemby. The move made perfect sense to me. They had no idea they'd end up with Harper at the time.

[Jcool0]

fox's all star year is looking a lot like luol deng 06-07 season

Deng was a pretty consistent player throughout his career in 06-07 he averaged 18/7/2.5. From 08-13 he averaged 16.5/6.4/2.5. He was more an all around player then scorer and thanks to the Bulls winning he got some All Star appearances. Fox is more when he was the #1 option, he could put up big scoring numbers but when he isn't the top guy he doesn't bring much to make up for it.

i just mean in terms of it being a pretty extreme outlier FG%/efficiency season, built on the back of a career-high 2pt fg% that he wasn't able to come close to again in the rest of his time here

deng was still good after that, but people assumed he would be able to maintain/build on that level of performance considering he was just 21 years old. and it turned out he just never was *that* good again.

He made two all star teams after that.

[nomorezorro]

ok? he shot 51.7% in 06-07 and 42% in his all-star seasons. that deng year is an example of an unsustainable outlier shooting season that i thought all of us would be familiar with, so i used it as shorthand to say i thought fox's all star year looked like it was on the back of some fluky shot-making. i am sorry that you understood it to mean that i thought de'aaron fox and luol deng were having the exact same career.

[dougthonus]

What does what he did 3 years ago have to do with him now? He has gotten worse every year since then. FWIW when they had the 3rd seed & he was the best player, they lost in round 1 to the 6th seed GS & in the deciding game he shot 26% and had 5 turnovers and the Kings lost by 20. He is now on a team with two other players that will eat into his minutes. If they made a promise to resign him i can somewhat understand but outside of that it was a dumb move to give him big money.

Not necessarily arguing with these points, I'm pretty suspicious about Fox too, but I do think it's worth noting that he was barely worse the next year, and only really regressed meaningfully last year. He's been a pretty steady ~20.5 PER guy generally speaking for a long time. I think that's a pretty different class than Coby White / Josh Giddey, and I don't think his cost will be a meaningful metric for them.

I do think they paid a Ferrari (real high end sports car) price for a Porsche (fake high end sports car) in this case, but I still don't think that impacts the price of a Corolla.

[Jcool0]

What does what he did 3 years ago have to do with him now? He has gotten worse every year since then. FWIW when they had the 3rd seed & he was the best player, they lost in round 1 to the 6th seed GS & in the deciding game he shot 26% and had 5 turnovers and the Kings lost by 20. He is now on a team with two other players that will eat into his minutes. If they made a promise to resign him i can somewhat understand but outside of that it was a dumb move to give him big money.

Not necessarily arguing with these points, I'm pretty suspicious about Fox too, but I do think it's worth noting that he was barely worse the next year, and only really regressed meaningfully last year. He's been a pretty steady ~20.5 PER guy generally speaking for a long time. I think that's a pretty different class than Coby White / Josh Giddey, and I don't think his cost will be a meaningful metric for them.

I do think they paid a Ferrari (real high end sports car) price for a Porsche (fake high end sports car) in this case, but I still don't think that impacts the price of a Corolla.

Probably have LaVine at that B+ level guy and I would put Fox below that at a B level star. We all saw how little of a market there was for LaVine. I cant imagine apart from an All NBA season he will have much of a market if SA wants to move him in a year or two.

[Jstock12]

as a giddey skeptic i think there is a decent (20%?) chance that josh giddey is a more valuable player than de'aaron fox over the next 4 years

Not even debatable, as far as value per dollar goes.

[dougthonus]

Probably have LaVine at that B+ level guy and I would put Fox below that at a B level star. We all saw how little of a market there was for LaVine. I cant imagine apart from an All NBA season he will have much of a market if SA wants to move him in a year or two.

I think he was viewed as having two way potential and better health. When LaVine was at the top of his game early, he had a reasonably robust trade market, we were looking at three 1sts at one point for him (all likely bad 1sts though). The injuries and performance degradation did him in. In that sense, if Fox bounce back to 20+ PER guy and looks like he's impacting winning (something LaVine has not really done) then I think he's got okay-ish potential trade value. If he has the same season as last year and looks like an 18 PER type guy that isn't impacting winning, then he's probably an albatross.

In that sense, much like LaVine, it's not hard to see him as a guy that could have wildly different markets year to year.

[Evil_Headband]

High end Camry, IMO

[boozapalooza]

Giddeys not getting 30M. His agents need to get real. If it was warranted, another team wouldve gotten involved in S&T talks, Take a short term, higher $ offer like 2/50 or 3/75, hit FA in a few years and get more $ if its earned.

Kudos to our FO for not caving. Just cause Toronto f’ed up with the Quickley extension doesn’t mean its the going rate for everyone.

Not to mention, Giddey has pretty limited marketability as his brand is still recovering from the underage stuff. Time heals (almost) all, but still too soon.

We’ll see where it lands but its kinda embarrassing for Giddey’s representation at this point.

[sco]

Giddeys not getting 30M. His agents need to get real. If it was warranted, another team wouldve gotten involved in S&T talks, Take a short term, higher $ offer like 2/50 or 3/75, hit FA in a few years and get more $ if its earned.

Kudos to our FO for not caving. Just cause Toronto f’ed up with the Quickley extension doesn’t mean its the going rate for everyone.

Not to mention, Giddey has pretty limited marketability as his brand is still recovering from the underage stuff. Time heals (almost) all, but still too soon.

We’ll see where it lands but its kinda embarrassing for Giddey’s representation at this point.

Let's say the Bulls are offing 4/$88, do we think there is any reason for Giddey's agent to accept that deal right now? Maybe something happens with a team like Utah, to bring them into the fray with a better deal in the next month or so, or maybe something happens with Kuminga or Cam that gives them a new market point. The risk is that Bulls pull their offer, but IMO, that's not gonna happen. So I think it makes sense for both sides to stay entrenched until either something changes or it becomes clear that nobody is coming for Giddey.

[nomorezorro]

as a giddey skeptic i think there is a decent (20%?) chance that josh giddey is a more valuable player than de'aaron fox over the next 4 years

Not even debatable, as far as value per dollar goes.

oh yeah that tilts things in giddey's favor. i was just talking about straight-up, ignoring contracts, who's the more useful basketball player

giddey's most recent season would arguably be the second-best season of de'aaron fox's career?

[sco]

as a giddey skeptic i think there is a decent (20%?) chance that josh giddey is a more valuable player than de'aaron fox over the next 4 years

Not even debatable, as far as value per dollar goes.

oh yeah that tilts things in giddey's favor. i was just talking about straight-up, ignoring contracts, who's the more useful basketball player

giddey's most recent season would arguably be the second-best season of de'aaron fox's career?

IDK, if I didn't know Giddey had 2 completely different partial seasons last season and just saw his FY averages, I think I would much rather have Fox.

[Jcool0]

Not even debatable, as far as value per dollar goes.

oh yeah that tilts things in giddey's favor. i was just talking about straight-up, ignoring contracts, who's the more useful basketball player

giddey's most recent season would arguably be the second-best season of de'aaron fox's career?

IDK, if I didn't know Giddey had 2 completely different partial seasons last season and just saw his FY averages, I think I would much rather have Fox.

You sure?

Josh Giddey, 70 games: 14.6/8.1/7.2 on 47/38/78. 18.1 PER. On-Off +/- +0.4. VORP: 2.7

De'Aaron Fox, 62 games: 23.5/4.8/6.3 on 46/31/83. 18.3 PER. On-Off +/- -0.9. VORP: 1.3

[boozapalooza]

Giddeys not getting 30M. His agents need to get real. If it was warranted, another team wouldve gotten involved in S&T talks, Take a short term, higher $ offer like 2/50 or 3/75, hit FA in a few years and get more $ if its earned.

Kudos to our FO for not caving. Just cause Toronto f’ed up with the Quickley extension doesn’t mean its the going rate for everyone.

Not to mention, Giddey has pretty limited marketability as his brand is still recovering from the underage stuff. Time heals (almost) all, but still too soon.

We’ll see where it lands but its kinda embarrassing for Giddey’s representation at this point.

Let's say the Bulls are offing 4/$88, do we think there is any reason for Giddey's agent to accept that deal right now? Maybe something happens with a team like Utah, to bring them into the fray with a better deal in the next month or so, or maybe something happens with Kuminga or Cam that gives them a new market point. The risk is that Bulls pull their offer, but IMO, that's not gonna happen. So I think it makes sense for both sides to stay entrenched until either something changes or it becomes clear that nobody is coming for Giddey.

Isnt 2/50 or 3/75 a better deal for Giddey? Why not just take that and move on. The offseason activity is pretty much done at this point, in my opinion we’re at the point where its very clear nobody is coming for Giddey.

Especially the 2/50, thats equivalent to them taking the QO and locking in a $38M salary in year 2. He’ll have the chance to run the show and put up big stats here for a couple seasons and will be 24 or 25 when he hits FA again.

[sco]

oh yeah that tilts things in giddey's favor. i was just talking about straight-up, ignoring contracts, who's the more useful basketball player

giddey's most recent season would arguably be the second-best season of de'aaron fox's career?

IDK, if I didn't know Giddey had 2 completely different partial seasons last season and just saw his FY averages, I think I would much rather have Fox.

You sure?

Josh Giddey, 70 games: 14.6/8.1/7.2 on 47/38/78. 18.1 PER. On-Off +/- +0.4. VORP: 2.7

De'Aaron Fox, 62 games: 23.5/4.8/6.3 on 46/31/83. 18.3 PER. On-Off +/- -0.9. VORP: 1.3

Yeah I would. I'd be more willing to give Fox credit for his prior years of better performance before I would give Giddey credit for his 1/3 season of better performance in my decision. But don't get me wrong, I'm rooting hard for Giddey to come back and do more of that year-end stuff!

[nomorezorro]

IDK, if I didn't know Giddey had 2 completely different partial seasons last season and just saw his FY averages, I think I would much rather have Fox.

giddey put up 17.5/9.5/8.5 per36 last year on basically league-average efficiency, and the first few metrics i looked at had him as at least an OK defender (and some distance above fox)

fox is reliably a 23-27ppg scorer so he has that on giddey, but he's only got one season where he's put up a better TS% than the 57% mark giddey had this most recent season. significantly worse assist guy and rebounder than giddey. same career 3pt% as giddey. probably a worse defender?

fox will probably be the better player going forward, but i don't think it's conclusive at all. and i personally would not give $57m a year to a guy who i am not very confident about outperforming josh giddey over the life of that contract.

[sco]

IDK, if I didn't know Giddey had 2 completely different partial seasons last season and just saw his FY averages, I think I would much rather have Fox.

giddey put up 17.5/9.5/8.5 per36 last year on basically league-average efficiency, and the first few metrics i looked at had him as at least an OK defender (and some distance above fox)

fox is reliably a 23-27ppg scorer so he has that on giddey, but he's only got one season where he's put up a better TS% than the 57% mark giddey had this most recent season. significantly worse assist guy and rebounder than giddey. same career 3pt% as giddey. probably a worse defender?

fox will probably be the better player going forward, but i don't think it's conclusive at all. and i personally would not give $57m a year to a guy who i am not very confident about outperforming josh giddey over the life of that contract.

Yeah I'm with you on the $57M, but if I were SA and had Wemby already, I might feel differently.

[Jcool0]

IDK, if I didn't know Giddey had 2 completely different partial seasons last season and just saw his FY averages, I think I would much rather have Fox.

You sure?

Josh Giddey, 70 games: 14.6/8.1/7.2 on 47/38/78. 18.1 PER. On-Off +/- +0.4. VORP: 2.7

De'Aaron Fox, 62 games: 23.5/4.8/6.3 on 46/31/83. 18.3 PER. On-Off +/- -0.9. VORP: 1.3

Yeah I would. I'd be more willing to give Fox credit for his prior years of better performance before I would give Giddey credit for his 1/3 season of better performance in my decision. But don't get me wrong, I'm rooting hard for Giddey to come back and do more of that year-end stuff!

Fox: 2023: 21.8 PER. 2024: 20.1 PER. 2025: 19 PER (SAC). 16.8 PER (SA)

Its not a massive drop off until he hits the Spurs, but i think he is past his peak.