GreenBlooded wrote:Hal14 wrote:Dogen wrote:
Yes, but we had the 3rd and 1st (traded to 3rd) in the 2016 and 2017 drafts. 10th picks were Zach Collins and Thon Maker. Of course we could say, "well Danny would have gotten us Mitchell and Sabonis", but those are big ifs. Tatum and Brown were seen as relatively safe picks at their spots in the draft.
Having said that, I wouldn't mind the Celtics sneaking in at the 10th spot for play-in game and see how things develop from there. Maybe the best of both worlds if the Celtics save face, stay hungry, and still have a chance to be a threat in the playoffs, yet get a decent pick in a loaded draft.
The other option of a one year tank, I don't care for. The odds of landing a top three pick will likely backfire, compounded by having a demoralized core and likely a pissed off Joe.
The warriors core didn't seem demoralized when Steph and Klay got hurt, missed extended time, the Warriors tanked, got the no. 2 pick in 2020 and 2 lottery picks in 2021, so they were bad both of those seasons..yet their core was fine, they came back and won the 2022 title once their guys were back healthy.
This year's celtics have no shot at the title. So even if the odds of us getting lucky in the lottery aren't super high, they are still better than a 0% chance. You at least have a chance by getting into the lottery.
The odds of us landing a top 3 pick might be low, but the odds of it happening are still higher than the odds of us winning a title in 2026.
Also, even if we don't get a top 3 pick, it's still the best option to tank and get as high of a pick as we can. Still really good talent in this draft in the 4-8 range. Not to mention there's plenty of stars in the league right now (Booker, SGA, Mitchell, Haliburton, Giannis, etc.) who got picked in like the 11-15 range.
The higher the pick, the better. I'd rather play those odds, than the odds of us winning a ring in 2026 with a center of rotation of Queta/Garza/Tillman and Tatum out with a torn achilles.
Us ending up in the play in tournament or getting into the playoffs, only to be a 1st/2nd round exit does no good - all that does is mean we get a worse draft pick and it means we're putting more wear and tear on the bodies of JB, white, etc.
Using your example, Golden State landed a top-3 pick, but he didn’t contribute at all to their championship. The following year, their two lottery picks also made no impact and Kerr just said this season Kuminga still isn’t playing winning basketball.
So what did they do during those rebuilding years that helped them win another title? They developed overlooked talent. They traded for a young, underachieving castoff with flaws in Wiggins and helped him thrive. They also turned a couple late first-round picks in Poole and Looney into a real contributors.
The point is, while lottery picks are flashy and memorable, the supporting cast GS built to win the title was from polishing a turd and developing late draft picks, nothing to do with them tanking or lottery picks.
Side note: the Celtics have their own “turd to polish” and a group of unheralded young players. Let's hope it turns out as well for us as it did for GS.
You seem to be misinterpreting my post.
How good those lottery picks that GS took was not the point of my post.
My point was that their core was clearly not demoralized by all the losing and tanking that they did during the 19-20 and 20-21 seasons.
I was simply replying to Dogen's comment that we shouldn't tank..and we should try our best to win as many games as possible this season so it doesn't demoralize our core.
I simply replied, saying it didn't demoralize golden state's core when they lost all of those games and tanked when Steph and Klay were injured for 2 seasons.
That's all..full stop. Wiseman and Kuminga had nothing to with what I posted. Looney was already there, before Steph/Klay got hurt.
Poole was a late 1st rounder who panned out well for them..and Pritchard is a late 1st rounder who panned out well for us..so they basically cancel each other out. Plus we have an undrafted guy who's a key contributor for us (Hauser)..but that's besides the point. Only point I was making was that Steph, Klay and Draymond were not bothered at all by the 2 years of losing/tanking. So I'm sure our guys would be fine with 1 year of it..
Hell, SGA dealt like with 2.5 years of losing/tanking in OKC..he understood what they were doing. He stayed patient and then won a title.
These guys are smart - they get it.
Also, while GS made some bad picks those years with Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody, I'm confident that if we land a lottery (or even better a top 10) pick in the 2026 draft, we will have better success than GS did with those picks. It'd be hard to do any worse..they could have taken Wagner and/or Sengun instead of Kuminga/Moody and they could have taken Haliburton instead of Wiseman..
The Mavs tanked to get a good draft pick in the 22-23 season. Did it demoralize Luka and Kyrie? Of course not..they're mentally tough and they're smart enough to understand the long game. Tanking that year got them Lively, who helped them to get to the NBA finals during his rookie year.
Losing some games might demoralize middle school or HS kids. It's not gonna bother the Jays, White or Pritchard.
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