Bears 12.0

[Dresden]

Just that he had a sack the other day v. Trapillo.

First expo game is this weekend.

[Susan]

why would you go watch the practice of a team you are incredibly pessimistic about

I'm still a fan and would like to be informed on my opinion of the team.

It was $10, a 7 minute metra from my house and I always enjoy going to SF. I wanted to come away excited, but Caleb then pulled a Will Levis special.

I'll be back for week 12 to root against Aaron Rodgers.

[TheJordanRule]

Well he’s still doing loopty loops back there if the highlights are any indication. One of those clips was called a first down, but it was clearly a sack by Booker. One other one was called the coverage locking down, but there were guys to throw the ball to, or dirt it. Caleb just didn’t pull the trigger and took a sack by Dayo.

The worst part about that sack was it was a 4th & goal play. You simply can't hold onto the ball there.

I didn’t realize that. The mental mistakes like that beyond whatever reason the ball holding happens, the sharp winner QBs don’t feature. We don’t want to make a federal case out of these things, but we don’t want to pretend they don’t exist either. Let’s go, Caleb

The difference in his mindset from the two minute drill and what he typically does is night and day. Clearly, this is a choice... which is ridiculous considering that he's far from his college days. There will be a considerable backlash against him if he continues to do this. Caleb views himself as a Patrick Mahomes, and it's killing us. I would prefer that he dirt it than risk it, ala Tom Brady. Tom found ways to avoid killing his teams with low percentage, garbage plays.

[fleet]

caleb was the consensus top pick. washington would have taken him and if they say otherwise they're lying. if daniels ends up being better but both are excellent, that ain't a loss. same w/ all those other guys. context matters

caleb has to be really good. that's all. the most viable comparison point IMO is love right now based on current trajectories. and frankly, cutler may be the minimum bar to clear, although i said that for fields and caleb's expectations were/are higher. cutler was a pretty average starting QB here, but his O-lines were generally poor and the offense had little for him to work with at the beginning. 7 solid, healthy years but little team success was certainly not the expectation

As I have said, “consensus” in NFL draft publications is meaningless to an NFL FO. Individual GMs have to make decisions based on their own evaluations.

In the Bears case, a GM does not need do their homework completely. Your boss is George McCaskey, and you get an extension before all the returns are in.

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i would bet that payton still would have taken caleb. it's all well and good to say "well, EYE would have done this..." after the fact. but when has a consensus #1 draft pick in ANY major american sport not been drafted #1? a GM would trade the pick before he would put his giant balls on the chopping block by shocking the world

and by the way, that tweet could still end up making payton look plenty dumb

Consensus doesn’t plug into Payton’s quarterback evaluation formula. Now, I’m not gonna say Payton would have taken Bo Nix #1. But there were certainly voices before the draft calling Jayden Daniels better than Caleb. And a few people even like Maye better. And trade downs for Maye, Daniels, Nix were theoretically available for the haul if a GM wanted to go in a different direction than Caleb. Would Payton have traded down for Nix? He basically indicated that possibility to Jim Miller. Anyway, there’s no way Poles was handcuffed into anything specific at #1. You do what you think is right that you believe in. GMing by consensus gets you fired. (Unless you work for George McCaskey). If a GM likes a different quarterback, but takes the one the crowd says he should take instead, that’s a GM nobody should want working for their team.

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- Payton came up with a formula: He looked at the rate of negative plays against Mahomes's total drop backs: percentage of sacks, fumbles, interceptions, then added them together for the average. (He also liked to see a quarterback's completion percentage, although it wasn't factored into the algorithm.) Like golf, a low score was best.

Attempts: 1,349 Sacks: 68 (5%) Fumbles: 14 (1%) Interceptions: 29 (2.1%) Completion percentage: 63.5 Average: 8.1……..



…….IN 2024, THE Broncos hold the twelfth pick in the first round. Payton has met with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, out of diligence. He knows both will be gone when the Broncos pick, but he plugged them into his processing formula anyway.

Williams: Attempts: 735 Sacks: 83 (11.2%) Fumbles: 32 (4.4%) Interceptions: 14 (1.9%) Completion percentage: 66.9 Average: 17.5

The average was high for Payton's taste, but it didn't matter.

With Maye, Payton likes his size and arm and competitive upbringing. Like with Williams and Jayden Daniels, he won't be an option at pick 12. But he looks at Maye's data:

Maye: Attempts: 942 Sacks: 69 (7.3%) Fumbles: 14 (1.5%) Interceptions: 16 (1.7%) Completion percentage: 64.5 Average: 10.5

J.J. McCarthy has a better average than either Williams or Maye: 7.8. And the Broncos theoretically have a chance at him. But the guy Payton loves, the quarterback who he has a shot to pick, is at the top of the sheet that the coach pulls out of the file and hands to me.

"I want this kid," Payton says.

Bo Nix, from Oregon. He had a strange college career, starting sixty-one games -- an NCAA record. He was twenty-four years old. He began his career at Auburn and transferred to Oregon. Payton visited him, and Nix had memorized the entire packet that the Broncos share with prospects, writing formations and plays neatly on the white boards in an office. Payton likes that he led the NCAA in completion percentage and he likes the type of completions he makes. At one point, Payton asked him what he had in his backpack, curious if he'd see anything suspicious or revealing, like dip or pain pills or candy. "Everything," Nix said. He pulled out cleats, a backup pair of socks, and a lacrosse ball, which he rolled on his back and shoulders to loosen up.

Attempts: 878 Sacks: 10 (1.1%) Fumbles: 0 (0%) Interceptions: 10 (1.1%) Completion percentage: 74.8 Average: 2.3

Nix's data is the best in the draft -- and is better than Mahomes's was…..

[fleet]

The worst part about that sack was it was a 4th & goal play. You simply can't hold onto the ball there.

I didn’t realize that. The mental mistakes like that beyond whatever reason the ball holding happens, the sharp winner QBs don’t feature. We don’t want to make a federal case out of these things, but we don’t want to pretend they don’t exist either. Let’s go, Caleb

The difference in his mindset from the two minute drill and what he typically does is night and day. Clearly, this is a choice... which is ridiculous considering that he's far from his college days. There will be a considerable backlash against him if he continues to do this. Caleb views himself as a Patrick Mahomes, and it's killing us. I would prefer that he dirt it than risk it, ala Tom Brady. Tom found ways to avoid killing his teams with low percentage, garbage plays.

According to the article above about Sean Payton and Bo Nix, the sack taking indicates (for Payton) a potential problem with processing the field. So if Caleb has an issue there, Caleb had a problem to overcome with whatever style he came up with to compensate. But that style was, and will be further tested in the NFL by defensive coordinators. If I had to guess how Ben Johnson decided to handle these questions by looking at his first draft, Caleb will be greatly aided by an embarrassment of riches at skill positions. You wish and hope that strategy wasn’t driven by necessity.

- When Payton scouted Mahomes, he sought to develop a formula that would evaluate the most vexing trait for college quarterbacks making the transition to the NFL: processing speed, the ability to react a fraction of a second faster than required in college. He tried to do it not by researching a quarterback's successes but by analyzing his failures. Quarterbacks with high rates of sacks and turnovers either freeze or panic, he felt. "If a quarterback is sacked quite a bit in college, per drop back, you can improve that some," Payton says now. "But it generally means the processing is a little delayed."

[Jimako10]

Media consensus nowadays can change on a whim, all it takes really is one negative adam shefter tweet and then everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon. From what I remember, Caleb and Maye were 1A/1B even before their last college season started, and then Daniels entered that tier during the season. As the draft got closer, the media locked in on Caleb, but was it because that was their actual analysis or because they wanted to look good when it was obvious to everyone that Poles was going that direction? Caleb was heavily favored because that was the expectation coming out of Chicago.

I do vaguely remember posting my favorite college QB stat at the time - 3rd down conversion rate. Daniels and Nix were #1/#2 in all college football. Still kind of ridiculous for Poles to not even bring in Daniels when you have teams that have no chance at them bringing them in ala Payton.

[Betta Bulleavit]

Media consensus nowadays can change on a whim, all it takes really is one negative adam shefter tweet and then everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon. From what I remember, Caleb and Maye were 1A/1B even before their last college season started, and then Daniels entered that tier during the season. As the draft got closer, the media locked in on Caleb, but was it because that was their actual analysis or because they wanted to look good when it was obvious to everyone that Poles was going that direction? Caleb was heavily favored because that was the expectation coming out of Chicago.

I do vaguely remember posting my favorite college QB stat at the time - 3rd down conversion rate. Daniels and Nix were #1/#2 in all college football. Still kind of ridiculous for Poles to not even bring in Daniels when you have teams that have no chance at them bringing them in ala Payton.

My recollection was that Williams was always “the one” while Maye and Daniels were both rich man’s consolation prizes. The only media person that was on Daniels from the jump was Dan Orlovsky. And it wasn’t even that HE thought that Daniels was ever going to be the pick at one. Just that he thought there was value in the Bears trading back to 2 for some additional draft compensation and still getting a gem in Daniels. But as far as who was going number one, I honestly can’t think of anyone that thought that anyone but Williams was going there.

[fleet]

Media consensus nowadays can change on a whim, all it takes really is one negative adam shefter tweet and then everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon. From what I remember, Caleb and Maye were 1A/1B even before their last college season started, and then Daniels entered that tier during the season. As the draft got closer, the media locked in on Caleb, but was it because that was their actual analysis or because they wanted to look good when it was obvious to everyone that Poles was going that direction? Caleb was heavily favored because that was the expectation coming out of Chicago.

I do vaguely remember posting my favorite college QB stat at the time - 3rd down conversion rate. Daniels and Nix were #1/#2 in all college football. Still kind of ridiculous for Poles to not even bring in Daniels when you have teams that have no chance at them bringing them in ala Payton.

My recollection was that Williams was always “the one” while Maye and Daniels were both rich man’s consolation prizes. The only media person that was on Daniels from the jump was Dan Orlovsky. And it wasn’t even that HE thought that Daniels was ever going to be the pick at one. Just that he thought there was value in the Bears trading back to 2 for some additional draft compensation and still getting a gem in Daniels. But as far as who was going number one, I honestly can’t think of anyone that thought that anyone but Williams was going there.

That was strongly contingent on the Bears holding the pick as much as the evaluation of the quarterbacks themselves. The Bears shut down all debate. If a guy like Sean Payton was sitting there at the top, the vibe may have been different. And I’m confident Payton would not be alone in that among NFL executives. Minority perhaps, but inspiration is often a minority view fwiw.

[fleet]

Media consensus nowadays can change on a whim, all it takes really is one negative adam shefter tweet and then everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon. From what I remember, Caleb and Maye were 1A/1B even before their last college season started, and then Daniels entered that tier during the season. As the draft got closer, the media locked in on Caleb, but was it because that was their actual analysis or because they wanted to look good when it was obvious to everyone that Poles was going that direction? Caleb was heavily favored because that was the expectation coming out of Chicago.

I do vaguely remember posting my favorite college QB stat at the time - 3rd down conversion rate. Daniels and Nix were #1/#2 in all college football. Still kind of ridiculous for Poles to not even bring in Daniels when you have teams that have no chance at them bringing them in ala Payton.

Hard to imagine a team not doing due diligence and just having their mind made up. Maye and Caleb were definitely 1, and 1A, until Jayden Daniels was gaining momentum to be considered more and more by NFL orbit people doing analysis. By putting in the work. Funny how that happens. I bet if the draft were held a couple months later, the Daniels momentum would’ve grown even more for the Bears to combat.

Someone on this board was strongly pushing for Nix very early in the process. I couldn’t imagine it. That poster was drowned out, as well as the couple few of us Maye people who decided to lay down our enthusiasm because the Caleb Williams propaganda was coming down the mountain like an 80 thousand pound 18 wheeler with no brakes.

[Betta Bulleavit]

Media consensus nowadays can change on a whim, all it takes really is one negative adam shefter tweet and then everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon. From what I remember, Caleb and Maye were 1A/1B even before their last college season started, and then Daniels entered that tier during the season. As the draft got closer, the media locked in on Caleb, but was it because that was their actual analysis or because they wanted to look good when it was obvious to everyone that Poles was going that direction? Caleb was heavily favored because that was the expectation coming out of Chicago.

I do vaguely remember posting my favorite college QB stat at the time - 3rd down conversion rate. Daniels and Nix were #1/#2 in all college football. Still kind of ridiculous for Poles to not even bring in Daniels when you have teams that have no chance at them bringing them in ala Payton.

My recollection was that Williams was always “the one” while Maye and Daniels were both rich man’s consolation prizes. The only media person that was on Daniels from the jump was Dan Orlovsky. And it wasn’t even that HE thought that Daniels was ever going to be the pick at one. Just that he thought there was value in the Bears trading back to 2 for some additional draft compensation and still getting a gem in Daniels. But as far as who was going number one, I honestly can’t think of anyone that thought that anyone but Williams was going there.

That was strongly contingent on the Bears holding the pick as much as the evaluation of the quarterbacks themselves. The Bears shut down all debate. If a guy like Sean Payton was sitting there at the top, the vibe may have been different. And I’m confident Payton would not be alone in that among NFL executives. Minority perhaps, but inspiration is often a minority view fwiw.

Unless my memory is just shot these days (and it could be), it was never really a question of who was going number one. It was just a matter of who would be drafting in that slot. And since it seems that Payton really liked Nix, there was never really a chance that they were going to be a team looking to trade up. If the Broncos had the number one pick, they’d have likely traded out of it for some other team that would have been drafting Caleb. But Iike I said, I don’t remember a single mock or analyst that had anyone but Williams going one. But again, that’s just my recollection.

[Susan]

Media consensus nowadays can change on a whim, all it takes really is one negative adam shefter tweet and then everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon. From what I remember, Caleb and Maye were 1A/1B even before their last college season started, and then Daniels entered that tier during the season. As the draft got closer, the media locked in on Caleb, but was it because that was their actual analysis or because they wanted to look good when it was obvious to everyone that Poles was going that direction? Caleb was heavily favored because that was the expectation coming out of Chicago.

I do vaguely remember posting my favorite college QB stat at the time - 3rd down conversion rate. Daniels and Nix were #1/#2 in all college football. Still kind of ridiculous for Poles to not even bring in Daniels when you have teams that have no chance at them bringing them in ala Payton.

Hard to imagine a team not doing due diligence and just having their mind made up. Maye and Caleb were definitely 1, and 1A, until Jayden Daniels was gaining momentum to be considered more and more by NFL orbit people doing analysis. By putting in the work. Funny how that happens. I bet if the draft were held a couple months later, the Daniels momentum would’ve grown even more for the Bears to combat.

Someone on this board was strongly pushing for Nix very early in the process. I couldn’t imagine it. That poster was drowned out, as well as the couple few of us Maye people who decided to lay down our enthusiasm because the Caleb Williams propaganda was coming down the mountain like an 80 thousand pound 18 wheeler with no brakes.

With the upcoming book from Seth whatshisname we'll learn more about the details but it appears the Bears were more recruiting Caleb than evaluating him.

I think of the lot, Maye would be my best bet to be the top QB from the group just because of size, arm and athletic ability but if JJ clicks that could absolutely be a problem too. I'll stop doubting anything related to Sean Payton and Bo Nix because clearly he's unmatched.

To have Shane Waldron as your top offensive mind for par of the evaluation and then fire him about 8 weeks into the season just shows what a Mickey Mouse operation it was.

[Susan]

My recollection was that Williams was always “the one” while Maye and Daniels were both rich man’s consolation prizes. The only media person that was on Daniels from the jump was Dan Orlovsky. And it wasn’t even that HE thought that Daniels was ever going to be the pick at one. Just that he thought there was value in the Bears trading back to 2 for some additional draft compensation and still getting a gem in Daniels. But as far as who was going number one, I honestly can’t think of anyone that thought that anyone but Williams was going there.

That was strongly contingent on the Bears holding the pick as much as the evaluation of the quarterbacks themselves. The Bears shut down all debate. If a guy like Sean Payton was sitting there at the top, the vibe may have been different. And I’m confident Payton would not be alone in that among NFL executives. Minority perhaps, but inspiration is often a minority view fwiw.

Unless my memory is just shot these days (and it could be), it was never really a question of who was going number one. It was just a matter of who would be drafting in that slot. And since it seems that Payton really liked Nix, there was never really a chance that they were going to be a team looking to trade up. If the Broncos had the number one pick, they’d have likely traded out of it for some other team that would have been drafting Caleb. But Iike I said, I don’t remember a single mock or analyst that had anyone but Williams going one. But again, that’s just my recollection.

I mean a lot of this is manufactured IMO so it's hard to really say.

During the season - Maye was absolutely right with Williams in draft twitter circles, but finished weakly so the hype around that died down - I think Dane Brugler had Maye ahead of Williams at one point even.

By the time it became painfully obvious that the Panthers were going to finish last place - and Poles wasn't exactly hiding his hard on for Caleb, there never really any point in having a debate because Poles was dead set on Caleb.

But I do remember a tweet from somebody well known on draft twitter that he thought 30% of teams would take Daniels over Caleb. By then it was clear that Daniels had fully surpassed Maye.

[Indomitable]

why would you go watch the practice of a team you are incredibly pessimistic about

I'm still a fan and would like to be informed on my opinion of the team.

It was $10, a 7 minute metra from my house and I always enjoy going to SF. I wanted to come away excited, but Caleb then pulled a Will Levis special.

I'll be back for week 12 to root against Aaron Rodgers.

What is a William Levis special?

[fleet]

Media consensus nowadays can change on a whim, all it takes really is one negative adam shefter tweet and then everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon. From what I remember, Caleb and Maye were 1A/1B even before their last college season started, and then Daniels entered that tier during the season. As the draft got closer, the media locked in on Caleb, but was it because that was their actual analysis or because they wanted to look good when it was obvious to everyone that Poles was going that direction? Caleb was heavily favored because that was the expectation coming out of Chicago.

I do vaguely remember posting my favorite college QB stat at the time - 3rd down conversion rate. Daniels and Nix were #1/#2 in all college football. Still kind of ridiculous for Poles to not even bring in Daniels when you have teams that have no chance at them bringing them in ala Payton.

Hard to imagine a team not doing due diligence and just having their mind made up. Maye and Caleb were definitely 1, and 1A, until Jayden Daniels was gaining momentum to be considered more and more by NFL orbit people doing analysis. By putting in the work. Funny how that happens. I bet if the draft were held a couple months later, the Daniels momentum would’ve grown even more for the Bears to combat.

Someone on this board was strongly pushing for Nix very early in the process. I couldn’t imagine it. That poster was drowned out, as well as the couple few of us Maye people who decided to lay down our enthusiasm because the Caleb Williams propaganda was coming down the mountain like an 80 thousand pound 18 wheeler with no brakes.

With the upcoming book from Seth whatshisname we'll learn more about the details but it appears the Bears were more recruiting Caleb than evaluating him.

I think of the lot, Maye would be my best bet to be the top QB from the group just because of size, arm and athletic ability but if JJ clicks that could absolutely be a problem too. I'll stop doubting anything related to Sean Payton and Bo Nix because clearly he's unmatched.

To have Shane Waldron as your top offensive mind for par of the evaluation and then fire him about 8 weeks into the season just shows what a Mickey Mouse operation it was.

The Bears tip toed around Caleb’s camp on egg shells. Afraid to offend him for fear of resistance to their overtures. It was weakness. The coaching staff was probably why Caleb was cold towards the Bears even aside from Waldron.

Maye is also with a new coach. Maye is young. Dang prototype. This is going to be interesting. I know I would feel more comfortable with Maye than with Caleb on Aug 5, 2025, while all questions still remain unanswered. Caleb has it all on a silver platter to put it away for now.

[_txchilibowl_]

I was and still am a Maye guy. Didn't see Jayden doing what he's doing but, as a Washington fan, I'm obviously thrilled.

Having said that, I'm not worried about Caleb at all. At least not from an ability standpoint. He just needs to bury is head in the playbook and he'll be fine. A little humbling can go a long way.

[Susan]

why would you go watch the practice of a team you are incredibly pessimistic about

I'm still a fan and would like to be informed on my opinion of the team.

It was $10, a 7 minute metra from my house and I always enjoy going to SF. I wanted to come away excited, but Caleb then pulled a Will Levis special.

I'll be back for week 12 to root against Aaron Rodgers.

What is a William Levis special?

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[Dresden]

The big knock on Nix was that he didn't have big play ability, and the offense was tailored to a short passing game due to that. And he was the perfect guy for that. But that put a ceiling on what he could be. Payton has always like the short passing game, emphasizing RB's and TE's, so it's not surprising he would come up with a formula that was weighted towards someone with those talents.

I liked both him and Penix coming out of college. Not as much as Caleb, but I thought they'd be good in the NFL. I remember someone on here saying neither had NFL talent, and definitely not first round talent.

I liked Daniels, but he had only performed at a high level for one year, so that's super risky. Plus his slender frame means he is more likely to get hurt and possibly have a short career.

I thought Caleb and Maye were 1/2 and then the rest. I honestly would not have been mad about a trade down if we could still have gotten Penix.

It sounds like a lot of people here are having buyer's remorse. I wonder if Indy fans felt the same after Peyton's first year.

[fleet]

If Caleb fills the deep ball gap, that’ll help open things up. IIRC, Caleb wasn’t ever good throwing deep all last year including training camp

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[nomorezorro]

my first instinct when i saw that payton metric was "that is a god awful way to evaluate QBs." zero accounting for quality of completion, no bonus for explosive plays, is designed to favor dink/dunk guys who avoid sacks/ints/incs by racking up a lot of short quick easy completions. (to say nothing of no accounting for age, experience, team/opponent quality...)

luckily someone else bothered to do the legwork to showcase exactly how stupid it is:

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love a QB prospect evaluation tool that says two MVPs are the two worst first-round QB prospects in recent memory

[fleet]

Whether or not one likes Payton’s methods, it wasn’t my point to support them. Twitter is free to go after Sean Payton. My point was that other people in the Bears position, or other people in the Bears’ GM chair may have had different outcomes as to what quarterback solution they arrived at. Fair enough. Some are talking like there were no other takes possible for the Bears other than Caleb Williams. Not necessarily the case.