Bears 12.0

[nomorezorro]

oh yeah that was just a stray thought about the metric not about anything specific in your post

[dice]

Poles has paid market value on his deals, don’t make it out to be more than it has been. The market moves past most free agents in a couple years after signing if they maintain their level of play. If JJ (or even Gordon) wanted to sign a year early at less than what he could have gotten had he waited, that’s more of a JJ thing than a genius Bears move.

Generally, paying a wide receiver like DJ is not something you want to do. Not unless you’re already set up for making a very deep run. And it hasn’t quite paid dividends. The best WR strategy is keep drafting them high, and trading them before the big payday. And the contracts to Kmet and Sweat have not paid off relative to their salaries. And lets not talk about Nate Davis and Edmunds even though that’s not the point you were trying to make. Dayo doesn’t appear to be a value deal. Poles has an extremely mixed record on paying free agents.

-traded for sweat rather than navigate FA. extended him a year early. rather than get the typical discount, poles was pressured into a quick overpay
-traded for jackson rather than navigate FA. then inexplicably gave a guy who was injured and benched last year a gift extension...a year early
-extended gordon a year early. again did not get a discount but rather doled out a record deal for a nickel
-traded for thuney rather than sign a FA. extended him a year early for ages 34-36

clearly poles does not like to and is not good at negotiating. if he is the anti-jerry jones, perhaps both extremes are bad

-Sweat was getting traded regardless. He was not hitting free agency. And even if he did, we would’ve paid more or lost out on him.

1) i didn't say the bears should have signed sweat in FA
2) poles overpaid him a year early. compared to other FREE AGENT contracts. he was never getting elite money. but he got sub-elite from poles

Jonah Jackson was literally a pro bowler under Ben Johnson. He wasn’t a free agent. I don’t see the issue with getting a guy he knows he can utilize and understands his system.

the issue is extending him unnecessarily at a price that is way over what he would get today. there is not even a guarantee he will bounce back from last season to become serviceable, let alone be a pro bowler again

Kyle Gordon might arguably be our best defensive player and the best nickel in the league according to a lot of ppl. Why haggle with home grown talent you know you aren’t losing? There’s no benefit.

of course there is. where there's no benefit in not negotiating at all. worst case scenario you give him the record contract later in the season or even after the season

and there's zero RISK involved in losing someone for record money...unless it's a QB, potentially

-Thuney has multiple rings, was in the Super Bowl last year and was a pro bowler last year! He might be our best player on offense. And yet doesn’t have 2-3 years left in him?

he's now under contract until 4 years from now. i don't hate the contract. i do dislike trading a valuable pick for a guy nearing the end of his deal when you can do the work in free agency and save the draft capital

and no, that does not mean i think he could have found another thuney in FA. but he could have spent the money smartly on multiple players

trading draft picks for market value players, like drafting a punter in the 4th, is a short window move for a team close to a title. a luxury. that is not where the bears are

Poles literally saved money by doing his plans with conviction rather than dragging it out.

he almost certainly did NOT save money on sweat and gordon. he SHOULD have by getting them to take the normal early signing discount to avoid injury risk. instead, now the injury risk is on the bears

negotiations aren’t his issue

certainly are when he fails to negotiate...

[dice]

As I have said, “consensus” in NFL draft publications is meaningless to an NFL FO. Individual GMs have to make decisions based on their own evaluations.

In the Bears case, a GM does not need do their homework completely. Your boss is George McCaskey, and you get an extension before all the returns are in.

Read on Twitter

i would bet that payton still would have taken caleb. it's all well and good to say "well, EYE would have done this..." after the fact. but when has a consensus #1 draft pick in ANY major american sport not been drafted #1? a GM would trade the pick before he would put his giant balls on the chopping block by shocking the world

and by the way, that tweet could still end up making payton look plenty dumb

Consensus doesn’t plug into Payton’s quarterback evaluation formula.

of course not

Now, I’m not gonna say Payton would have taken Bo Nix #1. But there were certainly voices before the draft calling Jayden Daniels better than Caleb. And a few people even like Maye better.

that's different from saying that any of them wouldn't have drafted caleb with their feet to the fire

And trade downs for Maye, Daniels, Nix were theoretically available for the haul if a GM wanted to go in a different direction than Caleb.

sure. which would have been the route to go. and at least somewhat plausible as a reality-based scenario

Anyway, there’s no way Poles was handcuffed into anything specific at #1.

i'm talking about the pressure to keep one's job. not a mandate

You do what you think is right that you believe in. GMing by consensus gets you fired.

lone wolf GMing is more likely to get you fired. because the house comes down on you from all sides if you are wrong. poles will have a completely reasonable excuse if he is wrong on caleb (though not bringing in JD for a visit would not help his case)

that’s a GM nobody should want working for their team.

yet, it's human nature for one's job security to be above the team's medium to long-term prospects. it happens time and time again in team sports where a GM is permitted to make an obviously short-sighted move in the hopes of getting to that next contract

Payton came up with a formula: He looked at the rate of negative plays against Mahomes's total drop backs: percentage of sacks, fumbles, interceptions, then added them together for the average. (He also liked to see a quarterback's completion percentage, although it wasn't factored into the algorithm.) Like golf, a low score was best.

Attempts: 1,349 Sacks: 68 (5%) Fumbles: 14 (1%) Interceptions: 29 (2.1%) Completion percentage: 63.5 Average: 8.1……..

…….IN 2024, THE Broncos hold the twelfth pick in the first round. Payton has met with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, out of diligence. He knows both will be gone when the Broncos pick, but he plugged them into his processing formula anyway.

Williams: Attempts: 735 Sacks: 83 (11.2%) Fumbles: 32 (4.4%) Interceptions: 14 (1.9%) Completion percentage: 66.9 Average: 17.5

The average was high for Payton's taste, but it didn't matter.

1) it's a terrible formula that only factors in drive-killing plays. favors conservatism to the exclusion of all else. any QB in a conservative system would do great
2) if the formula was any good he should NOT be sharing it

J.J. McCarthy has a better average than either Williams or Maye: 7.8.

Bo Nix, from Oregon...Attempts: 878 Sacks: 10 (1.1%) Fumbles: 0 (0%) Interceptions: 10 (1.1%) Completion percentage: 74.8 Average: 2.3

cases in point. nobody was coddled more than JJ and oregon's passing game was conservative as well

[Dresden]

my first instinct when i saw that payton metric was "that is a god awful way to evaluate QBs." zero accounting for quality of completion, no bonus for explosive plays, is designed to favor dink/dunk guys who avoid sacks/ints/incs by racking up a lot of short quick easy completions. (to say nothing of no accounting for age, experience, team/opponent quality...)

luckily someone else bothered to do the legwork to showcase exactly how stupid it is:

Read on Twitter

love a QB prospect evaluation tool that says two MVPs are the two worst first-round QB prospects in recent memory

That's a good take down!

[Dresden]

Bears supposedly had a practice today that was as physical as some reporters said they've ever seen, including a number of scuffles/fights. Kmet ends up injured, but Adam Hoge says it's not serious.

[Bulls69]

I love the fireworks in practice, and I think a few of our posters are overanalyzing Caleb. It's year two; please give the kid a chance. He is going to make a few mistakes. He's a young quarterback. I said it a few days ago: the offense most likely is going to struggle for probably the first half of the season.


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[sco]

I lovI love the fireworks in practice, and I think a few of our posters are overanalyzing Caleb. It's year two; please give the kid a chance. He is going to make a few mistakes. He's a young quarterback. I said it a few days ago: the offense most likely is going to struggle for probably the first half of the season.


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I'm not bullish on Williams, in general. I think his style and physical stature will make his chances of success lower than many other QB's. That said, I think Johnson will give him the tools to succeed, if it is possible. I think the Bears will likely stick with Caleb this season regardless, and if he shows modest improvement, next season too. If he fails, it won't be because of the Bears' efforts to help him succeed have fallen short.

[patryk7754]

why would you go watch the practice of a team you are incredibly pessimistic about

I'm still a fan and would like to be informed on my opinion of the team.

It was $10, a 7 minute metra from my house and I always enjoy going to SF. I wanted to come away excited, but Caleb then pulled a Will Levis special.

I'll be back for week 12 to root against Aaron Rodgers.

god forbid you have reasonable doubt about a team thats been bad for most of the past decade and still be a fan

[patryk7754]

I think the biggest concern is LT. Should've replaced Jones long before this season, and now he's losing his spot to a rookie. I like Ozzy, but I don't think he's ready to be our starting LT. I would strongly consider trading for a LT. You'd probably have to convince me not to trade for one.

[Almost Retired]

The big knock on Nix was that he didn't have big play ability, and the offense was tailored to a short passing game due to that. And he was the perfect guy for that. But that put a ceiling on what he could be. Payton has always like the short passing game, emphasizing RB's and TE's, so it's not surprising he would come up with a formula that was weighted towards someone with those talents.

I liked both him and Penix coming out of college. Not as much as Caleb, but I thought they'd be good in the NFL. I remember someone on here saying neither had NFL talent, and definitely not first round talent.

I liked Daniels, but he had only performed at a high level for one year, so that's super risky. Plus his slender frame means he is more likely to get hurt and possibly have a short career.

I thought Caleb and Maye were 1/2 and then the rest. I honestly would not have been mad about a trade down if we could still have gotten Penix.

It sounds like a lot of people here are having buyer's remorse. I wonder if Indy fans felt the same after Peyton's first year.

I like Bo Nix for what he was....a great choice for a precision route short game. A perfect move the chains QB. We took Caleb to be the next Mahomes. The guy that gets you a score in the 2 minute drill to win the game. We could get 90% of what Nix brings to the table by starting Bagent if that was the route we wanted to take.

[Dresden]

The big knock on Nix was that he didn't have big play ability, and the offense was tailored to a short passing game due to that. And he was the perfect guy for that. But that put a ceiling on what he could be. Payton has always like the short passing game, emphasizing RB's and TE's, so it's not surprising he would come up with a formula that was weighted towards someone with those talents.

I liked both him and Penix coming out of college. Not as much as Caleb, but I thought they'd be good in the NFL. I remember someone on here saying neither had NFL talent, and definitely not first round talent.

I liked Daniels, but he had only performed at a high level for one year, so that's super risky. Plus his slender frame means he is more likely to get hurt and possibly have a short career.

I thought Caleb and Maye were 1/2 and then the rest. I honestly would not have been mad about a trade down if we could still have gotten Penix.

It sounds like a lot of people here are having buyer's remorse. I wonder if Indy fans felt the same after Peyton's first year.

I like Bo Nix for what he was....a great choice for a precision route short game. A perfect move the chains QB. We took Caleb to be the next Mahomes. The guy that gets you a score in the 2 minute drill to win the game. We could get 90% of what Nix brings to the table by starting Bagent if that was the route we wanted to take.

That's an excellent point- we already have a Nix like QB on the roster. The only thing Nix might be better at is his running ability. Of course, Bagent is a big unknown still, having played in D3, whereas Nix did it on one of the best D1 teams in the nation.

[Dresden]

FWIW- initial depth chart has Braxton at LT, Tyrique at CB2, Noah Sewell at LB 3. Loveland is listed among starters, along with Kmet.

[_txchilibowl_]

You guys are seriously underrating Bo Nix if you think Bagent is 90% of him. He's not a game manager... he's a legit franchise QB.

[Betta Bulleavit]

You guys are seriously underrating Bo Nix if you think Bagent is 90% of him. He's not a game manager... he's a legit franchise QB.

I never understood why Nix wasn’t more looked at as an upper tier QB that year. He had clear NFL ready traits that I honestly didn’t see in any of the other QBs. That’s not to say that they wouldn’t develop them. And yes, guys like JD and Williams do have higher ceilings. But Nix was always the cream of the McCarthy, Penix, Nix tier for me.

[dice]

my first instinct when i saw that payton metric was "that is a god awful way to evaluate QBs." zero accounting for quality of completion, no bonus for explosive plays, is designed to favor dink/dunk guys who avoid sacks/ints/incs by racking up a lot of short quick easy completions. (to say nothing of no accounting for age, experience, team/opponent quality...)

i mean, it evaluates only half of what makes a good QB. you want a guy who is both explosive and careful. kyle orton was careful and so fared well under the payton "algorithm"

[Dresden]

You guys are seriously underrating Bo Nix if you think Bagent is 90% of him. He's not a game manager... he's a legit franchise QB.

I never understood why Nix wasn’t more looked at as an upper tier QB that year. He had clear NFL ready traits that I honestly didn’t see in any of the other QBs. That’s not to say that they wouldn’t develop them. And yes, guys like JD and Williams do have higher ceilings. But Nix was always the cream of the McCarthy, Penix, Nix tier for me.

Nix I believe was also an older player, so that factored in. Penix has a fantastic arm and great accuracy throwing deep. His downside is his injury history, and his inability to run much.

IMO, all of Caleb, Daniels, Maye, Penix and Nix could be better than Bryce Young. Which is why it made so much sense for Poles to trade back a year to get his QB. Of course he could have taken Stroud, too, and time will tell how good he is. I have doubts about him- he throws a lot of balls that look like they could get picked off (but somehow don't).

[TheEndIsNigh]

You guys are seriously underrating Bo Nix if you think Bagent is 90% of him. He's not a game manager... he's a legit franchise QB.

I never understood why Nix wasn’t more looked at as an upper tier QB that year. He had clear NFL ready traits that I honestly didn’t see in any of the other QBs. That’s not to say that they wouldn’t develop them. And yes, guys like JD and Williams do have higher ceilings. But Nix was always the cream of the McCarthy, Penix, Nix tier for me.

I think the nfl ready guys are generally perceived to have lower upside. The higher floor, low ceiling tend to be the more pro-ready types. Also the older than the competition seems to be common in this category. So youre less likely to hit a home run by drafting one, but you might very well hit a double, which is good.

[El Ridda]

You guys are seriously underrating Bo Nix if you think Bagent is 90% of him. He's not a game manager... he's a legit franchise QB.

There's a lot of buzz on Nix this offseason, and much of it is justified. He seems to be on the road to being Brock Purdy like, which is a pretty great. That said, I'm not ready to anoint him just yet. Mac Jones had similar vibes coming out of his rookie year, and we all know how that turned out. That said, Nix is in a much better situation with Payton. We shall see!

[Bulls69]

You guys are seriously underrating Bo Nix if you think Bagent is 90% of him. He's not a game manager... he's a legit franchise QB.

Our base has an unwarranted love fest with Bagent the kid is a good backup not every a down NFL stater. I can't name one current NFL starter that I would say Tyson is better than not one.


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[Dresden]

You guys are seriously underrating Bo Nix if you think Bagent is 90% of him. He's not a game manager... he's a legit franchise QB.

Our base has an unwarranted love fest with Bagent the kid is a good backup not every a down NFL stater. I can't name one current NFL starter that I would say Tyson is better than not one.


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I don't think we know what Bagent can or can't do. He started 4 games and went 2-2 on a pretty bad team. More than likely we'll see him start a game or two this year as it's not unlikely Caleb will miss at least a game with an injury. I am anxious to see how he does in Ben Johnson's offense, and with the talent we have on offense. He was listed ahead of Case Keenum on the depth chart- I don't know if that means much, but reports are that he's looked pretty sharp so far in camp. We'll likely see a good deal of him in preseason. He could be a total dud, or he could be a pretty good back up. Maybe Steve Fuller to Caleb's Jim McMahon.