2025 Offseason Thread Vol.6

[SA37]

Spoiler:

I think that people forget that Duncan topped out at 13.5 ppg.

We were living in the peak overvaluation of role players. Gobert, D Green, J Holiday...etc. Robinson -- and other shooters like him -- profited immensely from this overvaluation.

In his defense -- and partly in Herro's -- Miami has never been very good offensively. Has Miami ever had a top 15 offense under Spo that wasn't a product of having the Big 3?

It'll be interesting to see how Robinson does in Detroit.

I think that people forget that Duncan topped out at 13.5 ppg.

We were living in the peak overvaluation of role players. Gobert, D Green, J Holiday...etc. Robinson -- and other shooters like him -- profited immensely from this overvaluation.

In his defense -- and partly in Herro's -- Miami has never been very good offensively. Has Miami ever had a top 15 offense under Spo that wasn't a product of having the Big 3?

It'll be interesting to see how Robinson does in Detroit.

No, but Spo has not been blessed with scoring talent on his rosters.. we have acquired talent with very limited resources.

If we are talking since the Big 3, these are the biggest names we have had on our roster

Dragic - probably the most complete player we have had offensively since the big 3, especially when you look back from 2015-2018 and yet he was never considered a “threat”
Whiteside - it was lightning in a bottle, and he faded away to irrelevance very fast..
Butler - our best offensive player we have had since the big3, great midrange offensive player, not a great shooter from distance
Bam - limited offensive arsenal, elite defense
Herro - limited offensive arsenal

Then spo has had to make chicken salad out of chicken **** with roleplayers like TJ, Dion Waiters, Caleb, Strus, Gabe Vincent, Ellington, Duncan, Tucker, Crowder, Solomon, Burks, Winslow, Richardson, etc…

Hell Whiteside, was on like 7 different teams in 3 years before we signed him to a 10 day.. he was on like 2 lebanese teams, 2 chinese teams and 3 different g league teams

Whiteside and all those roleplayers i listed were well on their way to getting a CDL license and driving a truck fulltime

We barely gave up anything for Butler.. that was luck..

The most expensive trade we have had since the big 3 was Dragic. And that was a decade ago where we traded 2 firsts.

We have not had a trade for a player like Dragic since. The way we are operating right now is unrecognizable. What we usually do is, we trade everything we can for the big fish. Now we try to get the big fish for free and no one is picking up the phone. They dont even respect us to entertain the call because we are unserious about what we offer.

Since Dragic, we have traded a first for Terry Rozier..

Thats the kind of talent we have given Spo since the Big 3.

Some fair points, but who Miami does/doesn't acquire (or develop) is based on the fundamental view of the franchise: defense, defense, defense. Riley never cared about offense and his successors have come from his tutelage. Miami just doesn't focus on offense.

Overall, Miami has had incredible team success over Riley's tenure, so it is really hard to argue with his methods. Miami has established its system and systematically (no pun intended) searches for skillsets to fit into the system. But the system is focused on defense, not offense.

[HeatFanLifer]

Overall, Miami has had incredible team success over Riley's tenure, so it is really hard to argue with his methods. Miami has established its system and systematically (no pun intended) searches for skillsets to fit into the system. But the system is focused on defense, not offense.

Defense is important, but talent is most important and the Heat have been focused on acquiring talent since the end of the big 3 era. Unfortunately, not much talent wants to come here.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Overall, Miami has had incredible team success over Riley's tenure, so it is really hard to argue with his methods. Miami has established its system and systematically (no pun intended) searches for skillsets to fit into the system. But the system is focused on defense, not offense.

Defense is important, but talent is most important and the Heat have been focused on acquiring talent since the end of the big 3 era. Unfortunately, not much talent wants to come here.

Well it has, we just haven’t been willing to meet the asking price unfortunately

[KingDavid]

Spoiler:

Players like Robinson are a distraction. He has improved off the dribble, but he's still limited. He's a target for the other team and they attack him relentlessly. Players have gotten a lot better at shooting the 3, and you have guys with much more well-rounded games that can shoot on par with Robinson.

No functional, rational team makes any plans to "surround" a limited role player. If Robinson at least could score like Klay Thompson, then ok. But Robinson is not that kind of scorer, which is why he eventually lost his spot to Max Strus and Gabe Vincent in Miami.

I think that people forget that Duncan topped out at 13.5 ppg.

We were living in the peak overvaluation of role players. Gobert, D Green, J Holiday...etc. Robinson -- and other shooters like him -- profited immensely from this overvaluation.

In his defense -- and partly in Herro's -- Miami has never been very good offensively. Has Miami ever had a top 15 offense under Spo that wasn't a product of having the Big 3?

It'll be interesting to see how Robinson does in Detroit.

Twice; 19-20 7th. 21-22 12th.

Last season (with the Jimmy drama & Rozier no-show in mind) according to NBA.com, we were 27th in pace, 21st in offensive rating, 9th in defensive rating, and that put us at 16th in net rating. Typically not winning a thing being in the bottom half offensively aside from the warriors at 16th when they last won (although they were ranked 2nd defensively).

Not groundbreaking at all but what I'm gathering since covid is that you typically need around a top 5-7 net rating in the regular season to reach the finals aside from the pacers last year. But even their net rating jumped from 13th in the regular season to 5th in the playoffs. We have the defensive talent to be a top 10 defense with our slow pace, but offensively we're lacking tremendously and there's no playoff-Jimmy to bail us out anymore. If Herro is going to be the #1 option again this year, I think we'll need to sacrifice some defense by upping the pace; we don't have the offensive talent to play a slow pace (big thanks to Dudzier here).

[SoFlaKingReal]

Duncan was also a boneheaded player these last few years. So many turnovers, fouls, and mental mistakes. This was the result of asking him to do anything more than just catch and shoot

He didnt even do that correctly…

A catch and shoot 3 point shooter has their position and legs locked in and takes a high percentage open 3 or mildly contested 3.

he was trying to do some Kobe/Ray Allen type of catch and shooting, running around in circles, catching and fade jump shooting, which a lot of times led to long rebounds… he was not and is NOT that guy.. he should have been camping in position like Mike Miller.

Duncan was top 3 most expensive “DID NOT PLAY - COACH’S DECISION” in the 22-23 season because how bad his offense was for our transition defense. It lead to quick points the other **** way. Literally shot us out of victories.

Exactly. He was always trying to do too damn much. But a lot of that was the result of us giving him that bloated contract and then expecting he evolve his game to match his salary number.

[HeatFanLifer]

Duncan was also a boneheaded player these last few years. So many turnovers, fouls, and mental mistakes. This was the result of asking him to do anything more than just catch and shoot

He didnt even do that correctly…

A catch and shoot 3 point shooter has their position and legs locked in and takes a high percentage open 3 or mildly contested 3.

he was trying to do some Kobe/Ray Allen type of catch and shooting, running around in circles, catching and fade jump shooting, which a lot of times led to long rebounds… he was not and is NOT that guy.. he should have been camping in position like Mike Miller.

Duncan was top 3 most expensive “DID NOT PLAY - COACH’S DECISION” in the 22-23 season because how bad his offense was for our transition defense. It lead to quick points the other **** way. Literally shot us out of victories.

Exactly. He was always trying to do too damn much. But a lot of that was the result of us giving him that bloated contract and then expecting he evolve his game to match his salary number.

I forgot about dude. He’s Detroit’s problem now. Good luck, he sucks.

[batterybro42]

The Heat send Terry Rozier and Wiggins to the struggling Warriors at the deadline for…..

Jimmy Butler

Herro
Powell
Butler
Bam
Ware

We ride

Heat in 5

[MartyConlonJr]

You can't put it all of Miami's shortcomings on Herro, but it isn't like he's had incredible personal output. Just the opposite, in fact.

I wrote a giant analysis piece and my phone refreshed the page and killed it all, so frustrating. But my point was Herros playoff career is heavily weighted to look worse than it is.

- Played large portion of his playoff career as a rookie. 21 games in first season, 29 since.
- Has played against the best teams, and highly ranked defensive teams a LOT.
- 24-25 Cavs 1 seed
- 23-24 Celts 1 seed
- 22-23 Bucks 1 seed
- 21-22 Celts 2 seed (Heat were 1)
- 21-22 76ers 4 seed (but 3 way tie with Celts and Bucks for 2nd best record)
- 20-21 Bucks 3 seed
- 19-20 Lakers 1 seed
- 19-20 Celtics 3 seed
- 19-20 Bucks 1 seed
- 19-20 Indy 4 seed

Basically his last 5 playoff rounds over the past 4 seasons have always been against the highest ranked possible opponent in the conference.

Only Atlanta in opening round of 21-22 season as 9th seed was ever a vastly inferior opponent.

24-25 and 23-24 were years were Herro was thrown against the top offensive+defensive teams after both Jimmy trade and Jimmy injuries where Miami was unable to regroup offensively and had to put way too much on him.
22-23 Herro came out of the gates well but got injured.
20-21 was the covid bubble final hangover year where the entire team wet the bed. Especially Jimmy.

Still, he has struggled, and availability has been a problem. But I do think he has been put in unusually tough positions.

[batterybro42]

You can't put it all of Miami's shortcomings on Herro, but it isn't like he's had incredible personal output. Just the opposite, in fact.

I wrote a giant analysis piece and my phone refreshed the page and killed it all, so frustrating. But my point was Herros playoff career is heavily weighted to look worse than it is.

- Played large portion of his playoff career as a rookie. 21 games in first season, 29 since.
- Has played against the best teams, and highly ranked defensive teams a LOT.
- 24-25 Cavs 1 seed
- 23-24 Celts 1 seed
- 22-23 Bucks 1 seed
- 21-22 Celts 2 seed (Heat were 1)
- 21-22 76ers 4 seed (but 3 way tie with Celts and Bucks for 2nd best record)
- 20-21 Bucks 3 seed
- 19-20 Lakers 1 seed
- 19-20 Celtics 3 seed
- 19-20 Bucks 1 seed
- 19-20 Indy 4 seed

Basically his last 5 playoff rounds over the past 4 seasons have always been against the highest ranked possible opponent in the conference.

Only Atlanta in opening round of 21-22 season as 9th seed was ever a vastly inferior opponent.

24-25 and 23-24 were years were Herro was thrown against the top offensive+defensive teams after both Jimmy trade and Jimmy injuries where Miami was unable to regroup offensively and had to put way too much on him.
22-23 Herro came out of the gates well but got injured.
20-21 was the covid bubble final hangover year where the entire team wet the bed. Especially Jimmy.

Still, he has struggled, and availability has been a problem. But I do think he has been put in unusually tough positions.

I would like to see Spo figure out his rotation quickly and not spend 3/4ths of the season experimenting. This team can win 50 games if they are dialed from the jump. With as hard as the play in and early round matchups have been it would be really nice to come in as a top 3 seed in a weak East and see what we can do in those big time 2nd/3rd round series

This team is deep and has talent

I’m more questionable about their post season, but regular season wise this team is built really well to just out depth people

[3ammy3uck3ts]

You can't put it all of Miami's shortcomings on Herro, but it isn't like he's had incredible personal output. Just the opposite, in fact.

I wrote a giant analysis piece and my phone refreshed the page and killed it all, so frustrating. But my point was Herros playoff career is heavily weighted to look worse than it is.

- Played large portion of his playoff career as a rookie. 21 games in first season, 29 since.
- Has played against the best teams, and highly ranked defensive teams a LOT.
- 24-25 Cavs 1 seed
- 23-24 Celts 1 seed
- 22-23 Bucks 1 seed
- 21-22 Celts 2 seed (Heat were 1)
- 21-22 76ers 4 seed (but 3 way tie with Celts and Bucks for 2nd best record)
- 20-21 Bucks 3 seed
- 19-20 Lakers 1 seed
- 19-20 Celtics 3 seed
- 19-20 Bucks 1 seed
- 19-20 Indy 4 seed

Basically his last 5 playoff rounds over the past 4 seasons have always been against the highest ranked possible opponent in the conference.

Only Atlanta in opening round of 21-22 season as 9th seed was ever a vastly inferior opponent.

24-25 and 23-24 were years were Herro was thrown against the top offensive+defensive teams after both Jimmy trade and Jimmy injuries where Miami was unable to regroup offensively and had to put way too much on him.
22-23 Herro came out of the gates well but got injured.
20-21 was the covid bubble final hangover year where the entire team wet the bed. Especially Jimmy.

Still, he has struggled, and availability has been a problem. But I do think he has been put in unusually tough positions.

His rookie season was his only respectable run, it was his best playoffs by far. As for competition, that’s the playoffs. You’re playing the best of the best.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Read on Twitter

This is 100% Spo's motto and the reason we will have Tyler Herro starting as the PG/SG on opening night with Norman Powell as the two.

[contract]

Austin Reaves likely looking at $30+ million a season in free agency next summer

https://www.nbcsports.com/nba/news/austin-reaves-likely-looking-at-30-million-a-season-in-free-agency-next-summer

[MartyConlonJr]

His rookie season was his only respectable run, it was his best playoffs by far. As for competition, that’s the playoffs. You’re playing the best of the best.

To be clear, I do not think he has been a good playoff performer and I think his performances as a 1a option give me doubt about our teams ability to contend.

I just think he has been thrown in situations where he was at a major disadvantage with prime defensive teams geared to stop him and no other players who could generate offense and capitalise of that defensive strategy. And his career games played is heavily weighted to his pre-starter days, where his role was less prominent, so his numbers look worse comparatively between playoffs and regular season.

He still has a tonne to prove as a playoff performer. It is one of probably three red flags together with defense and availability.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

His rookie season was his only respectable run, it was his best playoffs by far. As for competition, that’s the playoffs. You’re playing the best of the best.

To be clear, I do not think he has been a good playoff performer and I think his performances as a 1a option give me doubt about our teams ability to contend.

I just think he has been thrown in situations where he was at a major disadvantage with prime defensive teams geared to stop him and no other players who could generate offense and capitalise of that defensive strategy. And his career games played is heavily weighted to his pre-starter days, where his role was less prominent, so his numbers look worse comparatively between playoffs and regular season.

He still has a tonne to prove as a playoff performer. It is one of probably three red flags together with defense and availability.

For sure, I was just pointing out his rookie season playoff numbers actually juice his numbers/averages as opposed to hurting them which is what I got from reading your post but maybe I misunderstood

[Hallstar]

You can't put it all of Miami's shortcomings on Herro, but it isn't like he's had incredible personal output. Just the opposite, in fact.

I wrote a giant analysis piece and my phone refreshed the page and killed it all, so frustrating. But my point was Herros playoff career is heavily weighted to look worse than it is.

- Played large portion of his playoff career as a rookie. 21 games in first season, 29 since.
- Has played against the best teams, and highly ranked defensive teams a LOT.
- 24-25 Cavs 1 seed
- 23-24 Celts 1 seed
- 22-23 Bucks 1 seed
- 21-22 Celts 2 seed (Heat were 1)
- 21-22 76ers 4 seed (but 3 way tie with Celts and Bucks for 2nd best record)
- 20-21 Bucks 3 seed
- 19-20 Lakers 1 seed
- 19-20 Celtics 3 seed
- 19-20 Bucks 1 seed
- 19-20 Indy 4 seed

Basically his last 5 playoff rounds over the past 4 seasons have always been against the highest ranked possible opponent in the conference.

Only Atlanta in opening round of 21-22 season as 9th seed was ever a vastly inferior opponent.

24-25 and 23-24 were years were Herro was thrown against the top offensive+defensive teams after both Jimmy trade and Jimmy injuries where Miami was unable to regroup offensively and had to put way too much on him.
22-23 Herro came out of the gates well but got injured.
20-21 was the covid bubble final hangover year where the entire team wet the bed. Especially Jimmy.

Still, he has struggled, and availability has been a problem. But I do think he has been put in unusually tough positions.

His rookie season was his only respectable run, it was his best playoffs by far. As for competition, that’s the playoffs. You’re playing the best of the best.

sure it's the best of the best, but playing in a 4/5 matchup is much different than being the 10th seed vs 1st.

At least we go in to the season serious right out of the gate this year vs the Jimmy years.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I wrote a giant analysis piece and my phone refreshed the page and killed it all, so frustrating. But my point was Herros playoff career is heavily weighted to look worse than it is.

- Played large portion of his playoff career as a rookie. 21 games in first season, 29 since.
- Has played against the best teams, and highly ranked defensive teams a LOT.
- 24-25 Cavs 1 seed
- 23-24 Celts 1 seed
- 22-23 Bucks 1 seed
- 21-22 Celts 2 seed (Heat were 1)
- 21-22 76ers 4 seed (but 3 way tie with Celts and Bucks for 2nd best record)
- 20-21 Bucks 3 seed
- 19-20 Lakers 1 seed
- 19-20 Celtics 3 seed
- 19-20 Bucks 1 seed
- 19-20 Indy 4 seed

Basically his last 5 playoff rounds over the past 4 seasons have always been against the highest ranked possible opponent in the conference.

Only Atlanta in opening round of 21-22 season as 9th seed was ever a vastly inferior opponent.

24-25 and 23-24 were years were Herro was thrown against the top offensive+defensive teams after both Jimmy trade and Jimmy injuries where Miami was unable to regroup offensively and had to put way too much on him.
22-23 Herro came out of the gates well but got injured.
20-21 was the covid bubble final hangover year where the entire team wet the bed. Especially Jimmy.

Still, he has struggled, and availability has been a problem. But I do think he has been put in unusually tough positions.

His rookie season was his only respectable run, it was his best playoffs by far. As for competition, that’s the playoffs. You’re playing the best of the best.

sure it's the best of the best, but playing in a 4/5 matchup is much different than being the 10th seed vs 1st.

At least we go in to the season serious right out of the gate this year vs the Jimmy years.

Yea I’m curious to see how this season goes compared to last years **** show

[SA37]

You can't put it all of Miami's shortcomings on Herro, but it isn't like he's had incredible personal output. Just the opposite, in fact.

I wrote a giant analysis piece and my phone refreshed the page and killed it all, so frustrating. But my point was Herros playoff career is heavily weighted to look worse than it is.

- Played large portion of his playoff career as a rookie. 21 games in first season, 29 since.
- Has played against the best teams, and highly ranked defensive teams a LOT.
- 24-25 Cavs 1 seed
- 23-24 Celts 1 seed
- 22-23 Bucks 1 seed
- 21-22 Celts 2 seed (Heat were 1)
- 21-22 76ers 4 seed (but 3 way tie with Celts and Bucks for 2nd best record)
- 20-21 Bucks 3 seed
- 19-20 Lakers 1 seed
- 19-20 Celtics 3 seed
- 19-20 Bucks 1 seed
- 19-20 Indy 4 seed

Basically his last 5 playoff rounds over the past 4 seasons have always been against the highest ranked possible opponent in the conference.

Only Atlanta in opening round of 21-22 season as 9th seed was ever a vastly inferior opponent.

24-25 and 23-24 were years were Herro was thrown against the top offensive+defensive teams after both Jimmy trade and Jimmy injuries where Miami was unable to regroup offensively and had to put way too much on him.
22-23 Herro came out of the gates well but got injured.
20-21 was the covid bubble final hangover year where the entire team wet the bed. Especially Jimmy.

Still, he has struggled, and availability has been a problem. But I do think he has been put in unusually tough positions.

That sucks!

Yeah, even in its totality, Herro's playoff performance is skewed towards his 1st 3 seasons. Still, even if we take the last 2 years (9 games), he's averaged 17-3-3 on 40-33-85, which is well below his regular season output.

Even if Herro has faced some of the highest ranked teams....that's the playoffs. You play against good teams and those teams have a chance to focus on every detail of how you play and spend endless hours game planning to stop you. Herro has yet to show he can thrive in that setting, and that is something Miami has to consider when deciding on an extension for Herro.

Unfortunately we don't have a bigger sample, but we can't ignore what we've seen from Herro so far.

[lastb1ckman]

I think it's a coin toss with Lavine, but otherwise I agree.

Age matters to a degree, but older players tend to get a bad rap. In general, people like to run with fantasies about the improvement young players will make and jump to conclusions about when a player will decline. That's just the nature of things. In Herro's case, he'll turn 26 in January and, in general, players hit their ceiling around this age.

Herro has largely underperformed in the playoffs and is far from being an elite player. I see his impact somewhere in the Eddie Jones range. Miami paid a premium for Jones to pair him with Mourning (along with maxing out Brian Grant). I see parallels with Adebayo/Herro, except Miami doesn't have an Alonzo Mourning. Miami ended up with 2 very overpaid players.

In an ideal world, Miami would wait until Herro's deal expires before re-signing/extending him. I understand that would likely create a lot of tension in the real world, but I am hopeful this is something Miami and Herro will put off until next summer to see how Herro produces and how this team fits with (or without) the improvements from Miami's unproven guys (Mitchell, Ware, Jovic...etc)

That's basically a list of overpaid scoring guards who cant win anything as a high paying starter. Bane might be the exception because he can somewhat hold his own. We'll see what he does in Orlando.

And, for now, Herro belongs on that list, which is precisely why I said Miami should wait on extending Herro. His career playoff averages are: 14-4r-3a on 41-33-89. Miami has accomplished nothing with Herro as the primary ball-handler or even a significant contributor in the playoffs.

You can't put it all of Miami's shortcomings on Herro, but it isn't like he's had incredible personal output. Just the opposite, in fact.

Yeah it probably makes the most sense in seeing if he can lead the heat through a playoff series. Its basically the last thing he really has to prove to me. Otherwise, its gonna end up with hurt feelings when the Heat don't offer him the money he wants. And then it'll be the problem whether another team closer to contention will be OK with just saying f it, here's the big money help us win the chip this year.

My biggest problem is some folks are really underrating him just cause they don't want the heat to pay him. No there's not 10 SGs better than him lol. Also, if we're not paying Herro, I don't think we'd pay Powell instead, thats backwards. Even if its less money.

[SA37]

My biggest problem is some folks are really underrating him just cause they don't want the heat to pay him. No there's not 10 SGs better than him lol. Also, if we're not paying Herro, I don't think we'd pay Powell instead, thats backwards. Even if its less money.

I disagree. I think most on this board see Herro for who he is, but some are optimistic and some are pessimistic about his ceiling.

If Powell were willing to sign for ~$20M/season, that would likely be about half of what Herro would be demanding. You get 90% of Herro's production for half the cost + whatever you get in a Herro trade. That's worth considering, imo, until/unless Herro proves he is something other than just another good guard in a league full of them.

[batterybro42]

My biggest problem is some folks are really underrating him just cause they don't want the heat to pay him. No there's not 10 SGs better than him lol. Also, if we're not paying Herro, I don't think we'd pay Powell instead, thats backwards. Even if its less money.

I disagree. I think most on this board see Herro for who he is, but some are optimistic and some are pessimistic about his ceiling.

If Powell were willing to sign for ~$20M/season, that would likely be about half of what Herro would be demanding. You get 90% of Herro's production for half the cost + whatever you get in a Herro trade. That's worth considering, imo, until/unless Herro proves he is something other than just another good guard in a league full of them.

I could see Tyler averaging 25+PPG on 50/40/90 splits at his peak

That’s pretty elite BTW and not real far off from where he currently sits

The way Tyler Herro was defended the 2nd half of the season post Jimmy was insane and you can’t convince me that a guy who demands that type of defensive attention isn’t a dude. They defended Tyler like he was Curry and that’s not just my opinion multiple opposing Coaches said so after games.

He wasn’t standing in the corner knocking down open 3s. His handle needs to take a step to take advantage of the pressure he sees to free up his teammates and re open clean opportunities for himself. The shot making is without question though. This is prove it year for Herro, and I don’t think it’s out of the realm to really be having a different discussion about him here in a few months.