Transfer Thread 25/26

Baseline81 · Post #461 » by **Baseline81** » Tue Aug 5, 2025 7:50 pm

Will Watkins be on the move?

wco81 · Post #462 » by **wco81** » Tue Aug 5, 2025 8:38 pm

Overview of the transfers thus far. It appears of the largest transfers or transfers over €35, just over half are from outside the PL.

Article talks about how over the years, PL has become the strongest league from top to bottom. But it's also the case that collectively they have the highest wage bills across all the leagues.

Then they show some analytics trying to quantify the average PL club's expected advantage over the average clubs in the other leagues.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/45902141/why-premier-league-such-tough-leap-other-leagues-players

This is clear in any attempt anyone makes at quantifying the strength of a given league. Analyst Tyson Ni recently released a publicly available set of team ratings that uses betting-market odds to estimate team strength. The ratings are represented as the expected goal differential for a given team were they to play the worst team in the dataset. And per Ni's ratings, the averages for the Big Five leagues are as follows:

• Premier League: 2.51
• LaLiga: 2.24
• Serie A: 2.06
• Ligue 1: 2.01
• Bundesliga: 1.96

Put another way, the average Premier League team would be expected to beat the average LaLiga team by 0.27 goals, the average Serie A team by 0.45 goals, the average Ligue 1 team by 0.50 goals and the average Bundesliga team by 0.55 goals.

The Club Elo ratings, meanwhile, mirror closely the wage and transfer-value data. The Elo system awards or subtracts points after every game a team plays, based on the final score, location and quality of the opponent. It's purely results-based; there are no estimates. And currently, all 20 Premier League clubs rank in the European top 50, which includes teams beyond just the Big Five leagues. No other league even has 10 clubs in the top 50.

LDNMagic90 · Post #463 » by **LDNMagic90** » Tue Aug 5, 2025 9:49 pm

Baseline81 wrote:Will Watkins be on the move?

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Possibly if Sesko goes to either Newcastle or United. Seems like he’s going to United though, although Guessand will likely be both our Rashford and Bailey replacement. We’re likely to play Guessand at RW.

Pipp33 · Post #464 » by **Pipp33** » Tue Aug 5, 2025 10:22 pm

LDNMagic90 wrote:
Baseline81 wrote:Will Watkins be on the move?

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Possibly if Sesko goes to either Newcastle or United. Seems like he’s going to United though, although Guessand will likely be both our Rashford and Bailey replacement. We’re likely to play Guessand at RW.

Agree, it looks like he's been bought in to predominantly play on the right , and start at 9 when Watkins is resting or injured.

He played more games starting as a RW (but playing inside) last season. He has played some on the left too over his career.

If we can keep Watkins, we have a better looking right side with Malen and Guessand now...and both can play 9.

I imagine we are selling Bailey, just waiting for an offer we like (after last season, not sure we get one).

Baseline81 · Post #465 » by **Baseline81** » Wed Aug 6, 2025 1:27 pm

Newcastle United's transfer window has been a complete shambles.

I suppose one could admire the ambition in the sorts of players targeted, however, the execution...

Missing out on the following:
- Trafford (Manchester City)
- Delap, Pedro (Chelsea)
- Ekitike (Liverpool)
- Cunha, Mbeumo, Sesko (Manchester United)

And, of course, Isak still wants out.

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Baseline81 · Post #466 » by **Baseline81** » Wed Aug 6, 2025 6:05 pm

Two thoughts come to mind. First, Newcastle United are refusing to sell Isak, and thus, Liverpool is moving on. Second, it's a ploy to hurry Newcastle United on finding an Isak replacement.

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Wisky4life · Post #467 » by **Wisky4life** » Wed Aug 6, 2025 7:06 pm

Carlos Belaba talks with ManU. I am quite fond of this move.

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Baseline81 · Post #468 » by **Baseline81** » Wed Aug 6, 2025 8:23 pm

Wisky4life wrote:Carlos Belaba talks with ManU. I am quite fond of this move.

Very talented player, and one any top-4 club would want.

Brighton will exact quite a toll, though. Doubtful he leaves for anything under £100m (not €100m), especially with Caicedo being the marker.

stormi · Post #469 » by **stormi** » Wed Aug 6, 2025 11:24 pm

Wisky4life wrote:Carlos Belaba talks with ManU. I am quite fond of this move.

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He's a tad bit overrated for me.

Baleba is a freak of nature physically, but his decision making has a long way to go before he can establish himself as a genuine WC midfielder. I watched a lot of Brighton last season and came away about 50% of the time unconvinced regarding his positioning and defensive awareness. I also think he suffers from concentration issues, which is expected at his age.

I think another year at Brighton would do him wonders, especially since his price-tag would probably be more justifiable next summer.

United do, desperately need a midfielder though so anything would help.

Post #470 » by **Baphomet** » Thu Aug 7, 2025 3:57 pm

With Maddison out for the foreseeable, Spurs need reinforcements at AM. Missing out on MGW hurts more now, thanks Marinakis.

According to DiMarzio (so take with a huge grain of salt), we've had a bid rejected for Nico Paz of Como. I'd be up for that, kid can really play.

Baseline81 · Post #471 » by **Baseline81** » Thu Aug 7, 2025 6:19 pm

Baphomet wrote:With Maddison out for the foreseeable, Spurs need reinforcements at AM. Missing out on MGW hurts more now, thanks Marinakis.

According to DiMarzio (so take with a huge grain of salt), we've had a bid rejected for Nico Paz of Como. I'd be up for that, kid can really play.

Based on that performance against Bayern, Levy may want to pick up the pace on transfers.

Baseline81 · Post #472 » by **Baseline81** » Thu Aug 7, 2025 8:33 pm

Haha... Chelsea trying to use Plettenberg to drum up interest and receive maximum value from Newcastle United. Immediately Bayern responds.

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Baseline81 · Post #473 » by **Baseline81** » Fri Aug 8, 2025 1:56 pm

We'll see if Newcastle United can get one over the line.

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LDNMagic90 · Post #474 » by **LDNMagic90** » Fri Aug 8, 2025 4:05 pm

Baseline81 wrote:We'll see if Newcastle United can get one over the line.

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Apparently the Kolo Muani link is false

Baseline81 · Post #475 » by **Baseline81** » Fri Aug 8, 2025 4:47 pm

LDNMagic90 wrote:Apparently the Kolo Muani link is false

I see that now.

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But there is this one from Ornstein, who is a more credible journalist:

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LDNMagic90 · Post #476 » by **LDNMagic90** » Fri Aug 8, 2025 5:47 pm

Baphomet wrote:With Maddison out for the foreseeable, Spurs need reinforcements at AM. Missing out on MGW hurts more now, thanks Marinakis.

According to DiMarzio (so take with a huge grain of salt), we've had a bid rejected for Nico Paz of Como. I'd be up for that, kid can really play.

Grealish might be at play too

Baseline81 · Post #477 » by **Baseline81** » Sat Aug 9, 2025 4:24 pm

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LDNMagic90 · Post #478 » by **LDNMagic90** » Sat Aug 9, 2025 4:55 pm

I don’t get the play with Isak/Newcastle… surely you can’t keep a player around that doesn’t want to be there.

Maybe a loan to Saudi if Liverpool don’t move for him? I know Liverpool have a history of ‘cooling’ interest in players before making another move for them - like they done with Allison and I think Nunez I believe? So that could still be on the cards although Newcastle seem like they don’t want to do business with Liverpool

LDNMagic90 · Post #479 » by **LDNMagic90** » Sun Aug 10, 2025 11:17 pm

Savinho to Spurs possibly

Post #480 » by **Baphomet** » Sun Aug 10, 2025 11:32 pm

LDNMagic90 wrote:Savinho to Spurs possibly

Baller, would be well up for this. Slight concern about his end product but clearly has bags of ability.