Bears 12.0

[Chi town]

Was watching this convo earlier... https://www.on3.com/pro/news/espn-jeremy-fowler-claims-chicago-bears-are-treating-caleb-williams-like-a-rookie-right-now-nfl/

I'm happy about this. Caleb needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. Sounded like Ben was looking at he foot mechanics on drops and other micro stuff. May not be great for Caleb's confidence, but the kid IMO got the yips last season, so there may not have been much there to start with. Either BJ is a QB whisperer or it doesn't matter because they will either succeed or fail together.

This is exactly what I was hoping for.

UNLEARN everything from Flus.

Start over with Ben. Rebuild him all the way.

Caleb is going to ball out. Will take some time but by end of season everyone will be convinced. Ben is the exact type of coach Caleb needs.

[Dresden]

It's a 4 game sample size. I don't think anyone would look at any other rookie after 4 games and say "his int% is bad so he'll never be a starting QB". My point is that we don't really know one way or the other based on what we've seen so far. The coaches I'm sure have a good idea- they see him everyday in practice. If the depth chart means anything, he's at least beat out Kase Keenum.

I'm just interested to see what he can do this year if he's given a chance with the first team offense. He could bomb, he could be pretty good. I think we just can't say based on 4 games. But from Ben Johnson's recent comments, he's at least doing some things right.

Sure, you can't say for sure based on 4 games.

What you can say is:
1: Coming out of the draft he wasn't viewed as an NFL starting caliber prospect
2: He's done nothing since then that should change that opinion

So while you cannot say for sure what will happen, the odds of him becoming a very good QB vs fringe starting caliber QB vs being a backup vs being out of league caliber are not all just toss ups where you have no idea. The category we care about, very good QB, would seem highly, highly unlikely based on his pedigree coming in, and lack of evidence to change that opinion.

I would agree that being a very good starting QB seems like a long shot. But Brock Purdy was the last player taken in the draft, so not so different, and he's become quite good. Just because Purdy did it doesn't mean Bagent will, but he has done one thing that at least puts doubt into your first point (that he wasn't viewed as an NFL QB)- he's made an NFL roster now for 3 years in a row. So that's something.

In any case, he's going to get the start this weekend, so that will give him a chance to show what he can do.

[Dresden]

Sounds like the defense had a pretty day in joint practice with MIA:

"The Dolphins have had a tough day dealing with the Bears' physicality, particularly with Dennis Allen's defense. By most accounts, Chicago has had the upper hand during the practice, and Miami's issues have spilled over to a point where teammates are fighting one another."

Apparently, almost none of the starters will play this weekend, which doesn't make sense to me. At least the offense needs as much practice as they can get before the season starts.

[Dresden]

Silvy on Zaccheus: "Zaccheaus has been simply spectacular in every practice I’ve seen this camp. He simply does his job & does it well."

Sounds like the offense did not have a great day though- more pre-snap issues and Caleb taking some sacks.

[Jimako10]

Tory Taylor apparently had an 85 yard punt in the joint practice today. Poles immediately ran onto the field to high five Taylor.

[Dresden]

Treyveon Henderson returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD v. WAS tonight.

[dice]

Tory Taylor apparently had an 85 yard punt in the joint practice today. Poles immediately ran onto the field to high five Taylor.

yeah, but only 65 net

[biggestbullsfan]

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[molepharmer]

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Probably need him for pre-season carries since he's familiar with the BJ offense. Not sure how much Bears really would want Roschon, Swift, Homer, or Monangai carrying the ball during the exhibition games....and Wheeler can't take all the carries.

[Dresden]

Tory Taylor apparently had an 85 yard punt in the joint practice today. Poles immediately ran onto the field to high five Taylor.

yeah, but only 65 net

"Only" 65 net!

[dougthonus]

I would agree that being a very good starting QB seems like a long shot. But Brock Purdy was the last player taken in the draft, so not so different, and he's become quite good. Just because Purdy did it doesn't mean Bagent will, but he has done one thing that at least puts doubt into your first point (that he wasn't viewed as an NFL QB)- he's made an NFL roster now for 3 years in a row. So that's something.

In any case, he's going to get the start this weekend, so that will give him a chance to show what he can do.

The Purdy example is a completely worthless argument, because it says nothing about Bagent. It could be used on literally any QB in the NFL that was drafted late. But beyond that, Purdy was awesome in his rookie season when he got a chance. He had 13 TDs and 4 INTs and destroyed Bagent statistically by any way you want to measure it in Bagent's beginning, so Bagent is already not on Purdy's path. If he were, he would have killed it when he had a chance, and he'd be starting.

FWIW, I said "not a starting caliber NFL QB" not "not an NFL QB", but to be more precise by that statement, I mean the Bears viewed him as a long shot prospect to be a starting caliber QB. If they thought he had 0 chance, he wouldn't have made the roster, but I think that would generally I'd say if teams think you have a 50/50 or better shot at being a starter in this league you are going in the 1st or 2nd round.

Making the roster for 3 years as a backup isn't really evidence of him being an NFL starting caliber player at all. Furthermore, the odds of him being a good starting QB decrease with every year that he hasn't proven it. Ie, if your long shot guy didn't show out right away, it's less likely he's going to emerge later. Tyson hasn't shown out right away. He got a shot and he was 'meh'. Purdy was not 'meh' when he got a shot. He was fantastic.

There are certainly mitigating factors for Bagent, I don't think he has zero chance, just it's a real long shot that he's more than a backup. I will keep my fingers crossed, I would love to get some surprise upside from anywhere.

(edit to correct that he was a late UDFA vs late draft pick)

[GetBuLLish]

The Purdy example is a completely worthless argument, because it says nothing about Bagent. It could be used on literally any QB in the NFL that was drafted late. But beyond that, Purdy was awesome in his rookie season when he got a chance. He had 13 TDs and 4 INTs and destroyed Bagent statistically by any way you want to measure it in Bagent's beginning, so Bagent is already not on Purdy's path. If he were, he would have killed it when he had a chance, and he'd be starting.

To be clear though, because I don't think Bagent was viewed as a guy who was likely to have NFL starting QB upside. The fact that he was drafted means he has some chance to develop, but he was viewed as a long shot guy. Making the roster for 3 years as a backup isn't really evidence of him being an NFL starting caliber player at all.

Furthermore, the odds of him being a good starting QB decrease with every year that he hasn't proven it. Ie, if your long shot guy didn't show out right away, it's less likely he's going to emerge later. Tyson hasn't shown out right away. He got a shot and he was 'meh'.

Could he be a viable backup, sure. Could he be a starting caliber guy? Possibly, but probably not. Could he be an above average starting caliber guy? Almost assuredly not at this point.

Agree with everything here, except that Bagent was undrafted.

[fleet]

We like to think Bears nation is on to better pastures. We also have to remember what we are up against.

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[Dresden]

I would agree that being a very good starting QB seems like a long shot. But Brock Purdy was the last player taken in the draft, so not so different, and he's become quite good. Just because Purdy did it doesn't mean Bagent will, but he has done one thing that at least puts doubt into your first point (that he wasn't viewed as an NFL QB)- he's made an NFL roster now for 3 years in a row. So that's something.

In any case, he's going to get the start this weekend, so that will give him a chance to show what he can do.

The Purdy example is a completely worthless argument, because it says nothing about Bagent. It could be used on literally any QB in the NFL that was drafted late. But beyond that, Purdy was awesome in his rookie season when he got a chance. He had 13 TDs and 4 INTs and destroyed Bagent statistically by any way you want to measure it in Bagent's beginning, so Bagent is already not on Purdy's path. If he were, he would have killed it when he had a chance, and he'd be starting.

FWIW, I said "not a starting caliber NFL QB" not "not an NFL QB", but to be more precise by that statement, I mean the Bears viewed him as a long shot prospect to be a starting caliber QB. If they thought he had 0 chance, he wouldn't have made the roster, but I think that would generally I'd say if teams think you have a 50/50 or better shot at being a starter in this league you are going in the 1st or 2nd round.

Making the roster for 3 years as a backup isn't really evidence of him being an NFL starting caliber player at all. Furthermore, the odds of him being a good starting QB decrease with every year that he hasn't proven it. Ie, if your long shot guy didn't show out right away, it's less likely he's going to emerge later. Tyson hasn't shown out right away. He got a shot and he was 'meh'. Purdy was not 'meh' when he got a shot. He was fantastic.

There are certainly mitigating factors for Bagent, I don't think he has zero chance, just it's a real long shot that he's more than a backup. I will keep my fingers crossed, I would love to get some surprise upside from anywhere.

(edit to correct that he was a late UDFA vs late draft pick)

The reason the Purdy argument is valid is just as an example that sometimes miracles do happen, and players chosen quite late in the draft, which GM"s really don't think will make it, do make it.

As for Purdy showing a lot more early on, that's true, but he also had a very good offensive system behind him to fit into. Which is why it will be interesting to see if Bagent can do anything this year if he gets to play in the regular season with the first team offense.

I'm not hugely optimistic that Bagent will ever prove to be more than a backup, I just think he's an interesting story- someone from D2 who went undrafted, and now is QB2 for an NFL team. I don't think it's insignificant either that he's stuck on the team now for 3 years. That means he's showing enough in practice for coaches to comfortable with him as the main backup. There are plenty of veteran retreads out there, but so far, Bagent has made the Bears think they don't need one, or when they did pick one up, like Keenum this year, Bagent has outplayed them. That's not nothing.

[dougthonus]

The reason the Purdy argument is valid is just as an example that sometimes miracles do happen, and players chosen quite late in the draft, which GM"s really don't think will make it, do make it.

As for Purdy showing a lot more early on, that's true, but he also had a very good offensive system behind him to fit into. Which is why it will be interesting to see if Bagent can do anything this year if he gets to play in the regular season with the first team offense.

If your view of Bagent is "maybe a miracle will happen", then I agree. It's not impossible, just extraordinarily unlikely. I generally don't mix in the extraordinarily unlikely scenarios, not because I don't think they're impossible or because I don't cheer for them, but only because when you dabble in that space literally anything is possible and so there is no practical discussion to be had.

[fleet]

II’m thinking if Caleb/Justin deserves a Bears handicap, so does Tyson. Clean slate. Let’s go!

#Bagency

[Dresden]

The reason the Purdy argument is valid is just as an example that sometimes miracles do happen, and players chosen quite late in the draft, which GM"s really don't think will make it, do make it.

As for Purdy showing a lot more early on, that's true, but he also had a very good offensive system behind him to fit into. Which is why it will be interesting to see if Bagent can do anything this year if he gets to play in the regular season with the first team offense.

If your view of Bagent is "maybe a miracle will happen", then I agree. It's not impossible, just extraordinarily unlikely. I generally don't mix in the extraordinarily unlikely scenarios, not because I don't think they're impossible or because I don't cheer for them, but only because when you dabble in that space literally anything is possible and so there is no practical discussion to be had.

"miracles do happen" is obviously a figure of speech. I think Tyson's chance are greater than the earth getting hit by a sizable asteroid in the next 10 years, but less than the Cubs winning the division this year.

[dougthonus]

"miracles do happen" is obviously a figure of speech. I think Tyson's chance are greater than the earth getting hit by a sizable asteroid in the next 10 years, but less than the Cubs winning the division this year.

I also was using miracle liberally. Without doing a bunch of math and research and deeply backing it up, I'd say his odds of being an important part of the Bears future between 1 in 200-500, and by important I don't mean he comes in and wins 2 of 3 games as a backup and plays well, but becomes an above average starting caliber QB capable of leading the Bears somewhere over multiple seasons. Not miracle stuff in the literal sense of the word, but unlikely enough to not be more interesting then literally any QB in the NFL that is under 26 and on a roster and explicitly less interesting than the majority of guys that fit that profile.

[fleet]

My whole thing is if there is irrational exuberance out there for Bagent, there is also irrational negativity. There is no empirical reason to place limits on Bagent as far as have been placed by some people for some reason. My take is, they haven’t seen enough to be so definitive

[Hold That]

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Probably need him for pre-season carries since he's familiar with the BJ offense. Not sure how much Bears really would want Roschon, Swift, Homer, or Monangai carrying the ball during the exhibition games....and Wheeler can't take all the carries.

I highly doubt the bears are keeping 4 backs on the roster.

And if they are working out Jamal it’s not just for exhibition carries.

It’s likely BJ is not happy with what he’s seen out that position. I don’t think any of the RB are known to be good blockers. And you’re gonna have to do that in BJs offense