Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[Infinity2152]

I guess my question should be: Do people have objections to Giddey being our starter because of all these reasons he shouldn't get paid? Or is it strictly the money? Like if you believe he's a bad player or not likely to be a good starter, why would you want him at even $15 mill? If you really believe he can't shoot, can't defend, will never get better, it's all a mirage like people KEEP on saying in here, why would you say "Oh, but he can start at $20 mill?".

Tell you why it's a problem. Because if you admit Giddey is a starter level PG, blows away the arguments he doesn't deserve starter pay. And second contract starter pay is likely more than $20 mill in value, except this one summer.

I've said before, of course I don't want him at ANY price. It's funny every single analyst is saying Giddey is the most valuable of the RFA's. Bull's sign and trade Giddey, I'm done with the Bulls for awhile. I'm old. I watched Giddey come on this team last season and after Zach got traded, he brought some light. The team ran faster, Guys were happier. Fans were ecstatic. He put up crazy numbers. Young guy, looking like he's giving us everything.

I'll say it right now and haters can hate. He keeps bringing the energy and life, passion, pride to the Bulls uniform he's shown since he got here, don't f***ing care about his stats next year. People talk about "I don't care if he leaves, we can sign and trade him, so what if we lose him!!!!"

Like who do y'all want here? The perfect vet old school robot hyper efficient squad? Everybody keeps sucking up to Matas like he did so much over HALF A SEASON, but the love for Giddey is like nothing because he wants to be paid. No, I'm not talking about logical, I'm talking about fan (from the root word fanatic) support for a young guy who's showing us everything and still getting hated on by Bulls "fans".

Giddey made the Bulls games funs to watch. Guys want to throw shots, go ahead. I'm about rewarding young guys who lay it all out and you're counting on to lead the team. Might negotiate tough, but extremely fair. Not this $20-22 mill BS because I know no other teams have money and we can do it. This is disgraceful, I was a young guy on another team, I see exactly what my next contract negotiation looks like.

[jnrjr79]

You are purposely avoiding the point of his question.

Do you want Giddey as the starting PG 3 years from now?

This is a weird way to frame your response, because you’re agreeing with me. “Do you want Giddey to be the starting PG 3 years from now” is a relevant question. Next year? Who cares?

The answer is yes, but only up to a certain dollar value, at which point the answer becomes no. I’m also open to a S&T option if there is actually legitimate interest from other teams, but I’m skeptical there is.

If your answer is you aren't sure, how are you going to find out?

See above. I would not sign Josh Giddey to any number under the sun simply to “find out” if he might become a good fit as the long-term PG.

In any event, at any number it appears the Bulls would indulge, I’ll be happy to see him re-signed. I am glad, though, they seem to have learned from their mistake with Pat and aren’t simply giving him what he wants just because he wants it.

So....what is your number? My max is 30mil and my expectation is 25mil. And what way did I frame my response that was weird? lol

It’s weird to critique my post suggesting that wins and losses next year don’t matter by saying I’m dodging the question and then moving the goalposts to ask if I want Giddey in 3 years. 3 years is more of a long-term timeframe, which was my whole point. The short-term doesn’t matter; the long-term does.

I’m glad the Bulls are sticking at $20M. I’ll be fine with them going up to something approaching $25M. I would not be stoked about $30M at all and would find that only somewhat more palatable on a short deal.

My overall view is Giddey is promising, but has a significant chance of not panning out, so I don’t want to be tied to him for 4-5 years at a big number.

[jnrjr79]

I feel as if Giddey is being penalized because the Bulls overpaid Pat, so now they are leaning in the other direction. Perhaps I am wrong ... but I'm quite wiling to bet that is how Josh & his agent feel, so I can understand if they are digging their heels in.

One man’s “I learned my lesson and won’t make the same mistake again” is another man’s “I’m being punished because you f-ed up,” I suppose.

[Red8911]

I feel as if Giddey is being penalized because the Bulls overpaid Pat, so now they are leaning in the other direction. Perhaps I am wrong ... but I'm quite wiling to bet that is how Josh & his agent feel, so I can understand if they are digging their heels in.

PWills contract is definitely something Giddeys camp has brought up for a reason with asking for more money.

Then at the same time the Bulls have ptsd and don’t want to over pay once again. All that just for Patrick to sleep walk during games lol.

It’s also the fact that this new CBA changed the game a bit now, so we might see more teams be more tight with their cap space.

[Infinity2152]

Can I ask a basketball question? Let's forget money. Is Giddey a dog? I mean that in a good way. People say, well anybody can score 15-20 regularly, get 8 assists, 8 rebounds, no they can't. Probably less than 10% of the league could maintain that for a full year. Giddey's not flashy or dunking on people or raining threes, so I think what he does is very underrated. He keeps going and going.

The whole defense thing, I don't think it's lack of effort or lack of physical ability. The guy is young, has played a different position darn near every year, and was the worst defender on a team of good defenders, which made him look even worse. Having to guard guys 5-8 inches shorter than you doesn't help when we're talking about foot speed.

Teams have scouting reports, they know his flaws and he still produces. Dogs go out there and get it done, Butler has been scoring 20+ forever and he still can't really shoot. Don't think Giddey's athleticism lets him get to 1A, but he has a 1A killer mentality, imo as in I'm going to keep coming at you.

I think he was young and buried by older guys and SGA, and his best is yet to come, for real.

[Red8911]

I feel as if Giddey is being penalized because the Bulls overpaid Pat, so now they are leaning in the other direction. Perhaps I am wrong ... but I'm quite wiling to bet that is how Josh & his agent feel, so I can understand if they are digging their heels in.

One man’s “I learned my lesson and won’t make the same mistake again” is another man’s “I’m being punished because you f-ed up,” I suppose.

Let’s say you were Josh Giddey and the Bulls offered you only 2 million more than Patrick Williams. Would you be ok with that ? Do you completely disregard what your teammates are making ? You don’t feel like you deserve a lot more than that dude ?

I bet if you were ever in that situation you would directly point at PWill as a reason to earn more. It’s just how things are whether it’s right or wrong.

Mistakes like that have consequences, that’s why they need to get rid of him asap.

[dougthonus]

I notice when I ask for alternatives, crickets. Some future draft prospect. We'll find a guy later.

Coby, Ayo, Tre, and Carter rotating at PG is already a good enough alternative for me that I do not need to seek an alternative in the market place. We have viable alternatives already on the roster IMO. I'm not convinced the team will be meaningfully worse if Giddey wasn't on it and was replaced by another rotation caliber player.

[Infinity2152]

I notice when I ask for alternatives, crickets. Some future draft prospect. We'll find a guy later.

Coby, Ayo, Tre, and Carter rotating at PG is already a good enough alternative for me that I do not need to seek an alternative in the market place. We have viable alternatives already on the roster IMO.

That's what I'm talking about bro! just want to hear the alternatives.

Coby's the starting SG. You're suggesting a Coby/Hueter starting lineup? Ayo/Coby? We talk about developing and growing Matas, Noa, rehabbing Pat's value, being a running team. You don't think Ayo or Coby running the offense hurts Matas and Noa?

Coby, Huerter, and Ayo are all expiring. If this year doesn't matter, any or all of them could be gone this summer. Having Giddy under contract vs the extra $25 mill or so, you're okay with just the cap space? We're right back at needing a PG, we'll have Tre Jones under contract of those 4.

[jnrjr79]

I feel as if Giddey is being penalized because the Bulls overpaid Pat, so now they are leaning in the other direction. Perhaps I am wrong ... but I'm quite wiling to bet that is how Josh & his agent feel, so I can understand if they are digging their heels in.

One man’s “I learned my lesson and won’t make the same mistake again” is another man’s “I’m being punished because you f-ed up,” I suppose.

Let’s say you were Josh Giddey and the Bulls offered you only 2 million more than Patrick Williams. Would you be ok with that ?

I don’t care whether he’s “ok” with it. If he’s not an idiot, he’d understand it. NBA players obviously know teams make mistakes from time to time and overpay guys.

Do you completely disregard what your teammates are making ? You don’t feel like you deserve a lot more than that dude ?

If he’s feels that way, that’s fine. The Bulls can’t decide to pay him based on whether he’s feeling weally, weally mad about things.

I bet if you were ever in that situation you would directly point at PWill as a reason to earn more. It’s just how things are whether it’s right or wrong.

If his agents are smart, they won’t point to PWill as a comp, because the Bulls will be like “yeah, we obviously wouldn’t do that again.” But if they do, who cares?

[quote
Mistakes like that have consequences, that’s why they need to get rid of him asap.[/quote]

Getting rid of Pat will not undo the fact that the Bulls gave out the contract and will have no effect on negotiations. And I never understand these posts where people are like “we need to get rid of [bad player on horrible contract with negative asset value].” Sure, we’d all love to, but those are the contracts you can’t move without attaching stuff you want to them. I’d rather ride out the stupid Pat deal than be throwing a first at a team to take him.

[Red8911]

I notice when I ask for alternatives, crickets. Some future draft prospect. We'll find a guy later.

Coby, Ayo, Tre, and Carter rotating at PG is already a good enough alternative for me that I do not need to seek an alternative in the market place. We have viable alternatives already on the roster IMO. I'm not convinced the team will be meaningfully worse if Giddey wasn't on it and was replaced by another rotation caliber player.

Now you’re just doing exactly what you do with Vuc, which is under rating the guy.How can the team not be worse without Giddey? lol.

The other guards are solid rotational players but not even starting level players. This is just another terrible take from you, acting as if Giddey and Vuc are scrubs.

[Almost Retired]

I'm not going to any live Bulls games, I live out of state. But IF I was to attend a game with the present roster the two most important pieces I would watch closely are Giddey and Matas. Maybe Noa in a few years. I would give Giddey $25 million and get him signed for 4 years. AKME has to figure out how to deal Coby. I think Coby will play out his contract and become an UFA in 2026 and at that point we can't afford him. I would see what I could get for him now. Joe Crowley thinks on the open market Coby could get offers as high as $40 million per. No way I'm paying him that. No third contracts unless we're putting up new Championship Banners.

[dougthonus]

That's what I'm talking about bro! just want to hear the alternatives.

Coby's the starting SG. You're suggesting a Coby/Hueter starting lineup? Ayo/Coby? We talk about developing and growing Matas, Noa, rehabbing Pat's value, being a running team. You don't think Ayo or Coby running the offense hurts Matas and Noa?

No. I don't think Matas or Noa will become meaningfully better players because Giddey is on the roster. They may get a couple easier looks a game, and thus may have better stats, but I don't think that would make them better players or have a lasting impact if Giddey were to leave.

Coby, Huerter, and Ayo are all expiring. If this year doesn't matter, any or all of them could be gone this summer. Having Giddy under contract vs the extra $25 mill or so, you're okay with just the cap space? We're right back at needing a PG, we'll have Tre Jones under contract of those 4.

Yes. I'm okay with just having cap space.

Fundamentally though this gets back to strategy, and discussing Giddey's situation in a vacuum doesn't consider the holistic strategy. I'm completely fine having a holistically full rebuild strategy which is improved with Giddey gone. I'm also fine keeping Giddey at the right price and not doing a full rebuild strategy.

[dougthonus]

Now you’re just doing exactly what you do with Vuc, which is under rating the guy.How can the team not be worse without Giddey? lol.

The other guards are solid rotational players but not even starting level players. This is just another terrible take from you, acting as if Giddey and Vuc are scrubs.

The Thunder traded Giddey for a role playing defensive oriented bench guard and got dramatically better for it. So no, I don't think Giddey moves the needle vs other rotation caliber players. He's a rotation player himself. He's not a star player.

[HomoSapien]

Now you’re just doing exactly what you do with Vuc, which is under rating the guy.How can the team not be worse without Giddey? lol.

The other guards are solid rotational players but not even starting level players. This is just another terrible take from you, acting as if Giddey and Vuc are scrubs.

The Thunder traded Giddey for a role playing defensive oriented bench guard and got dramatically better for it. So no, I don't think Giddey moves the needle vs other rotation caliber players. He's a rotation player himself. He's not a star player.

Yes, AC is technically a role player, but I think calling him a "role playing defensive oriented bench guard" is misleading. Caruso, from an impact, tangibles, and analytics standpoint is a stud. He's not your typical bench role player here.

[sco]

I notice when I ask for alternatives, crickets. Some future draft prospect. We'll find a guy later.

Coby, Ayo, Tre, and Carter rotating at PG is already a good enough alternative for me that I do not need to seek an alternative in the market place. We have viable alternatives already on the roster IMO. I'm not convinced the team will be meaningfully worse if Giddey wasn't on it and was replaced by another rotation caliber player.

Now you’re just doing exactly what you do with Vuc, which is under rating the guy.How can the team not be worse without Giddey? lol.

The other guards are solid rotational players but not even starting level players. This is just another terrible take from you, acting as if Giddey and Vuc are scrubs.

First, thanks everyone for the renewed energy on the topic today. Fun read!

Regarding Giddey. I like the debate about how guys feel about what he brings as a starting PG. IMO, the answer is he's a guy who passes, ball handles, and rebounds well. On the flip side, he can't defend the opposing PG well. I don't think those things are up for much debate. I think the debate is around how much of his late season improvements in shooting, scoring, and defending forwards should be paid for in his contract. Without the uptick, IMO he's a MLE-level $ guy. If one were to ascribe that uptick as sustainable, it would be hard to argue that he isn't worth $30M. The problem is that his uptick was for 29 games against what Doug aptly characterized as the little sisters of the poor.

I think the answer about what "fair pay" is, should fall somewhere in the middle (between the MLE and $30M). Interesting, the half-way point of that range is $22.5M, which sounds like it may be pretty close to what the Bulls were offering. Moreover, I think it is appropriate to apply a discount to fair value to RFA contracts...the restricted part of RFA is there to protect teams both in terms of keeping guys they want and, to a lesser extent, suppress prices by giving current teams a right to match.

The question about whether someone would want Giddey as our PG in 3 years is a great one. I think the hardest part of the Giddey decision is that we don't have our foundational guy yet (e.g. our true #1 option scorer on a contender). So making a decision on a guy who, even after his uptick, an imperfect player who may not fit alongside whoever our future star is, very hard. Although I don't think there is an argument here that there is a price where keeping Giddey to find out if his uptick is real and too see if he can fit next to that #1 option (assuming we can find him in the next couple seasons) is worth it. The debate is just around how much that is.

I do disagree about the Vuc point. There is little to no benefit to him being on the team next season. Again, IMO, his stats belie a game that is detrimental to our team's ability to function effectively in our new system. Moreover, his usage needs both hide our ability to assess guys like Coby and hinders Matas' development as a featured player in our offense next season.

[dougthonus]

Yes, AC is technically a role player, but I think calling him a "role playing defensive oriented bench guard" is misleading. Caruso, from an impact, tangibles, and analytics standpoint is a stud. He's not your typical bench role player here.

He played 20 minutes a game, is a one way guy, and signed for 20M a year. That isn't "technically" a role player. It is the definition of role player. It's also the perfect type of role player you want on your team. He solves a significant problem, he doesn't create a significant alternate problem.

If you think Josh Giddey is more than a rotation player, I'm not going to stop you. I just don't. I don't think he is the #1, #2, or #3 player on a 50 win team. I get why someone might, and maybe in time he will prove me wrong, but to me he's simply a rotation player. Probably on the higher end side of rotation players, but still a rotation guy.

[HomoSapien]

Yes, AC is technically a role player, but I think calling him a "role playing defensive oriented bench guard" is misleading. Caruso, from an impact, tangibles, and analytics standpoint is a stud. He's not your typical bench role player here.

He played 20 minutes a game, is a one way guy, and signed for 20M a year. That isn't "technically" a role player. It is the definition of role player. It's also the perfect type of role player you want on your team. He solves a significant problem, he doesn't create a significant alternate problem.

If you think Josh Giddey is more than a rotation player, I'm not going to stop you. I just don't. I don't think he is the #1, #2, or #3 player on a 50 win team. I get why someone might, and maybe in time he will prove me wrong, but to me he's simply a rotation player. Probably on the higher end side of rotation players, but still a rotation guy.

I suppose the way I would describe AC is super role player. This guy is elite in his role. He also only played 20 minutes because OKC is deep and also to preserve him for a deep playoff run.

As for Giddey, the way he was used post-trade was certainly more than a rotation player. He was a lead guard. Time will tell if he can sustain that long-term in a positive way, but certainly part of the appeal with Giddey is long-term potential. The Bulls and OKC are in very different places w/different needs... not to mention, Giddey asked to be traded so that he could have an opportunity at a bigger role. All that said, he was the 4th best player on a 57-win team as a 21-year-old, so he is seemingly close to what you are asking for.

[Jcool0]

I notice when I ask for alternatives, crickets. Some future draft prospect. We'll find a guy later.

Coby, Ayo, Tre, and Carter rotating at PG is already a good enough alternative for me that I do not need to seek an alternative in the market place. We have viable alternatives already on the roster IMO. I'm not convinced the team will be meaningfully worse if Giddey wasn't on it and was replaced by another rotation caliber player.

You forgot the green font.

[Infinity2152]

OKC signed Hartenstein and moved Holgrem to PF. SGA had a MVP season. Saying OKC got 11 wins better because they swapped Giddey for Caruso (19 mins/gm for 57 games) ignores everything else. They won 40 in 2022, 57 in 2023, Giddey was on both teams. That's a bigger jump than 57 to 68. We watched a team win 57 games with Giddey playing major minutes at a lower level than he is now or expected to be. And not a team full of All-Stars either.

If you see Giddey as nothing more than a rotation player, what does that mean? There's a different between starting level rotation player, sixth man, and role player. Is he below average starter level?

Here's the other thing. We have no long term players except Matas. We're nowhere near a complete team. Everybody's expiring. Giddy would have to be consistently bad for years for overpaying him to matter even slightly. We're talking 3-4 year contracts, seems like 5 is out the door. We're talking about $4-$5 mill AAV difference if they meet near the middle. That's acceptable risk for a team that's going to have a ton of cash and no assets. He's one of the 3 promising players on this team, and one of the others is UFA in the summer. We can't lose him for nothing.

[PaKii94]

I think this is becoming more like a FebruLauri situation with you Doug. You have to factor in the role change for Giddey. It wasn't just a hot steak.

Yes you can expect his game to fall off a bit if we get off true high usage superstar like SGA because his game is geared towards on ball. Outside of that happening we can expect him to run the offense well alongside other normal stars.

And it wasn't just a huge spike in usage. It was getting rid of the anchor that was Zach Lavine. Now if only they can get rid of vooch and replace him with a replacement level center, The whole team will look improved