LakersLegacy wrote:gavran wrote:They don't induct you in the HOF for circumstance.
7 Championships is what the HOF is looking for
Applying that reasoning, Steve Kerr is a half of fame player.
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LakersLegacy wrote:gavran wrote:They don't induct you in the HOF for circumstance.
7 Championships is what the HOF is looking for
Mr Puddles wrote:LakersLegacy wrote:gavran wrote:They don't induct you in the HOF for circumstance.
7 Championships is what the HOF is looking for
Applying that reasoning, Steve Kerr is a half of fame player.
parapooper wrote:All this whining about Horry scoring single digit points is so pointless
If Horry can positively impact the game __without__ taking the ball from high-usage guys who need it to have any impact that makes him even more valuable in the context of stacked teams and championship probability, not less
Let's compare Horry to everyone's favorite scorer:
Caramely Ant-honey:
-- 30,000+ career points (incl PS)
-- 10x all-star
-- 6 years with MVP votes
Horry 2000-2007 (age 29-36)
average points scored: 5.6
Overall points scored above replacement level: -116
4-year-rapm average rank (nbarapm.com): 27th (range 15th -43rd)
Melo 2013-2020 (age 28-35) - favorable age range compared to what we have Horry-RAPM for, includes a season when he is scoring leader and prevents Lebron in arguably his GOAT peak season from getting a unanimous MVP)
average points scored: 22.1
Overall points scored above replacement level: -142
4-year-rapm average rank (regular season!): 258th (range 42nd - 734th)
-> over a favorable stretch, in Melo's best year by RAPM he is ranked about the same as Horry's ___worst___ year -- in the regular season!
Then Melo gets _way_ worse in the PS and Horry gets _way_ better:
postseason RAPM (97-24):
Horry: +3 = 25th
Melo: -3.1 = 1413th (equally bad impact on offense and defense!)
out of 1507
---> Horry is a _____wildly____ superior player to Melo in a playoff team impact context, but is treated as way inferior because he doesn't take a lot of shots
Ruma85 wrote:parapooper wrote:All this whining about Horry scoring single digit points is so pointless
If Horry can positively impact the game __without__ taking the ball from high-usage guys who need it to have any impact that makes him even more valuable in the context of stacked teams and championship probability, not less
Let's compare Horry to everyone's favorite scorer:
Caramely Ant-honey:
-- 30,000+ career points (incl PS)
-- 10x all-star
-- 6 years with MVP votes
Horry 2000-2007 (age 29-36)
average points scored: 5.6
Overall points scored above replacement level: -116
4-year-rapm average rank (nbarapm.com): 27th (range 15th -43rd)
Melo 2013-2020 (age 28-35) - favorable age range compared to what we have Horry-RAPM for, includes a season when he is scoring leader and prevents Lebron in arguably his GOAT peak season from getting a unanimous MVP)
average points scored: 22.1
Overall points scored above replacement level: -142
4-year-rapm average rank (regular season!): 258th (range 42nd - 734th)
-> over a favorable stretch, in Melo's best year by RAPM he is ranked about the same as Horry's ___worst___ year -- in the regular season!
Then Melo gets _way_ worse in the PS and Horry gets _way_ better:
postseason RAPM (97-24):
Horry: +3 = 25th
Melo: -3.1 = 1413th (equally bad impact on offense and defense!)
out of 1507
---> Horry is a _____wildly____ superior player to Melo in a playoff team impact context, but is treated as way inferior because he doesn't take a lot of shots
Not quite sure I understand where your going with this, Horry was very impactful despite his offensive numbers why compare the two, there roles are vastly different.
dhsilv2 wrote:VeggieBurger wrote:I was checking basketball reference - this guy really was in the playoffs all 16 years he was in the league? His teams also won at least 1 playoff series each year. How is this not Hall of Fame worthy? I mean either he’s the luckiest player on the planet or he has enough of a residual impact to help 16 teams in a row to the playoffs. 16 of 16! That’s crazy. Has anyone else ever done anything like this in the modern era - role player superstar or otherwise?
Making the playoffs? Off the top of my head Duncan made it all 19 seasons, well his team did. He was hurt in 2000.
bkkrh wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:bkkrh wrote:
The problem with advanced stats is often that you compare players with completely different roles. From my perspective, ifwe consider HOF worthy it makes sense to look at what makes a player special and who else isn´t in the hall of fame on a similar position that could be considered ahead of him.
Horry was one of the first true stretch 4s and was a well rounded player. What stands out are his clutch shots. In everything else he was at least above average, but again there isn´t a single season where you would have ever considered him to be close to All Star level.
Here are some players that currently aren´t in the HOF that during Horry´s peak years:
- Detlef Schrempf, original Stretch 4, 3x All Star, 2x 6th Man of the Year, 1x NBA 3rd team
- Shawn Marion, 4x All Star, 2x NBA 3rd team
- Rasheed Wallace, Robert Horry on Steroids, 4x All Star
- Shawn Kemp, 6x All Star, 3x NBA 2nd team
- Horace Grant, 1x All Star, 4 All Defense 2nd teams
- Charles Oakley, 1x All Star, 1x All Defense 1st team, 1x All Defense 2nd team
- Buck Williams, 3x All Star, 1x NBA 2nd team, 2x All Defense 1st team, 2x All Defense 2nd team
- Cliff Robinson, 1x All Star, 2x All Defense, 1x 6th Man of the year
First off, I don´t feel that any of these players should be in the Hall of Fame, even though Oakley and Kemp are some of my all time favorite players. Still, I´m pretty sure that besides maybe Buck Williams (where it was also an age thing) not a single one of these players would have been traded 1:1 for Horry. So I don´t see how a player can be added to the HOF if I can name around 8 players that played at the same time the same position and have more accomplishments and in most cases were also part of multiple deep playoff runs and championship teams.
Also, these are again just players that played at the same time and were good players during that period, so I don´t even consider players like Tom Chambers, Larry Nance, or Amare. I think you can even make an argument that A. C. Green deserves to be as much in the HOF as Horry.
So the only argument that can be brought up here is that Horry won more titles. But I would be very surprised if replacing Horry with any of those players would result in the team not winning the title.
Well, I'll start with I think Sheed and Marion should be in the hall. So from that aspect I think those two are on a whole other level.
I know I'm just picking one stat and it's largely because it captures to scale better and it at least seems to capture defense. Given XRAPM which is really what we want to use follows and supports it, I think it's fair and not me pulling a stat that happens to make my case.
Schrempf has a career BPM of 1.8 with a playoff BPM of 0.6
Grant - I am on record as saying he's a top 100 player and should be kinda in the same area for me as Horry but I think clearly better career. Now he's got a wild peak of a 4.0 BPM but career was 1.4 and playoffs of 2.4. Now that's quality stats and points to why myself and many others are higher on him than the general public.
Oakley - -0.5 career BPM, again negative. Peak was 1.7. Now his problem was flat out he wasn't an impactful offensive player. Maybe an underrated defender by this metric. And he wasn't much of a passer. Playoffs he goes up to 0.5.
Buck Williams - peak 2.0 and career 0.0. Playoffs -0.4
I already covered Cliff Robinson but peak 3.5 (very solid) but dragged it down with some awful seasons. 0.5 career and -1.2 career with a peak of only 2.0
Kemp the on paper hall guy from how you painted him with 6x allstar selections. 0.6 BPM and playoffs of 2.8. Peak was two years in the 4's with an insane two 4 game series in 95 and 98 and then an amazing 96 run at 4.8.
Horry peaked at 3.5 in the regular season with a 1.9 career. But a 3.7 career in the playoffs!. A peak playoff run in 2005 (23 games) of 7.6.
So yeah, if you want to talk about how good they were in the regular season and talk about PPG or allstar selections. We're good. But I can't even count how many times people wanted to dismiss Harden for "choking" in the playoffs, where he still plays like a legit allstar just not an MVP. Leonard has been taken to near god status for his insane playoffs despite there not being much of them. KG only got like 3 of his 7 best age seasons to even be in the playoffs so people turn to early career series before he really "made it" to push him lower. But a guy who's clearly a sub top 75 all time guy. We don't give him his credit for having perhaps the greatest step up career in the playoffs of anyone ever?Spoiler:
Here are the top 100 playoff BPM's of all time. There are a few odd guys in there. Mostly guys who had 1 or 2 big runs and small samples. Horry really shines here and unlike some odd guys here, his insane minutes and games played in the playoffs showcase this wasn't some one off run. 7 playoff runs (remember he never didn't make the second round so these all had at least two different teams) with a BPM of 4.0 or better and that leaves off two years of 3.7.
So yeah, if we're talking regular season he has no case. But if you're one of the guys talking up the importance of the playoffs. Horry wasn't some guy along for the ride. He has the 24th highest playoff VORP of all time and the 32nd highest playoff win share.
Some other big names who we see as role players or whatever like Derek Fisher, Tony Parker, Ron Harper, and Robert Parish have less than half Horry's playoff VORP. All are also below him in playoff WS.
Edit
Sorry I forgot to get to a key point and response to you. You mentioned role and that's important and a fair point. My point with all the regular season vs playoff BPM stuff is that, all these guys we assume were stable in their roles from the playoffs to regular season. But Horry stands out in how he stepped up his game in the playoffs. We can only be a better version of yourself after all and he very clearly consistently did that.
Here is my issue with BPM, and pretty much every other advanced stat like PER, WS & VORP. Those stands can be an interesting measure tool, but in the end they can not measure the actual situation and circumstances. They are basically accepted as valid if the right guys show up in the higher spots, but people like MJ, Lebron or now Joker will just show up super high on lists no matter how you evaluate, since they had really good stats while playing on successfull teams.
Just to point out one of the most outstanding flaws on this list, a player like Tracy McGrady, that never made it out of the first round and shot bellow 40"% in some of those series is 8th on that list.
BPM treats every player that is on the floor with him as equally contributing and doesn´t factor in actual playing time, playing style and player role. 3s score additional points, great for him since he can shoot 3s. Assists count more for big men, great for him, since he is a good passer and actually isn´t one of the 2 main scoring options on the team. Turnovers and fouls deduct points, no problem for him, since he isn´t a primary ballhandler and doesn´t commit many fouls. Rebounds, steals and blocks count less for bigs, so it´s not an issue that he often doesn´t have huge numbers here. FGA and FTAs count negatively, so it´s positive for him that he has a low number of attempts.
To make it simple, the way BPM is calculated is extremely well fitting to Robert Horry, while on the other side it is a disadvantage towards a player like Shaq. This is the reason why Shaq had a BPM of 6.5 in a season where he averaged 30 points, 15 rebounds and 2.4 blocks and won Finals MVP, while Robert Horry had a BPM of 7.6 in a season where he averaged 9.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 0.9 blocks and steals. According to BPM Shaq had an All NBA level Playoff run, while Horry was close to MVP level.
Horry had this number in 04-05. Duncan won Finals MVP with 5.5, which puts him between All Star and All NBA level, while Ginobili reached 9.2, which puts him between MVP and peak Jordan/Lebron level. He definitely had a good playoff run, but somehow everybody seemed to miss that he is on GOAT level.
And I am not even considering things yet like him playing his whole career on contenders, so either playing on a team that is viewed as favorite or equal against pretty much every playoff opponent. Having the benefit of always having either the player that many consider the greatest 2 way Center of all time, the greatest Power Forward of all time, or the physical most dominant player with him. Which also resulted in case of Shaq in opposing teams dealing with foul troubles etc., same goes for when exactly is he coming from the bench, who does he replace and so on. Especially him coming from the bench in more than half of his playoff games and in some seasons not even being the 6th man has an impact as well.
Ruma85 wrote:parapooper wrote:All this whining about Horry scoring single digit points is so pointless
If Horry can positively impact the game __without__ taking the ball from high-usage guys who need it to have any impact that makes him even more valuable in the context of stacked teams and championship probability, not less
Let's compare Horry to everyone's favorite scorer:
Caramely Ant-honey:
-- 30,000+ career points (incl PS)
-- 10x all-star
-- 6 years with MVP votes
Horry 2000-2007 (age 29-36)
average points scored: 5.6
Overall points scored above replacement level: -116
4-year-rapm average rank (nbarapm.com): 27th (range 15th -43rd)
Melo 2013-2020 (age 28-35) - favorable age range compared to what we have Horry-RAPM for, includes a season when he is scoring leader and prevents Lebron in arguably his GOAT peak season from getting a unanimous MVP)
average points scored: 22.1
Overall points scored above replacement level: -142
4-year-rapm average rank (regular season!): 258th (range 42nd - 734th)
-> over a favorable stretch, in Melo's best year by RAPM he is ranked about the same as Horry's ___worst___ year -- in the regular season!
Then Melo gets _way_ worse in the PS and Horry gets _way_ better:
postseason RAPM (97-24):
Horry: +3 = 25th
Melo: -3.1 = 1413th (equally bad impact on offense and defense!)
out of 1507
---> Horry is a _____wildly____ superior player to Melo in a playoff team impact context, but is treated as way inferior because he doesn't take a lot of shots
Not quite sure I understand where your going with this, Horry was very impactful despite his offensive numbers why compare the two, there roles are vastly different.
Castle Black wrote:I'm extremely grateful for Horry's time with the Spurs. They likely lose the 2005 NBA Finals if not for his late-game heroics in Game 5.
dhsilv2 wrote:Castle Black wrote:I'm extremely grateful for Horry's time with the Spurs. They likely lose the 2005 NBA Finals if not for his late-game heroics in Game 5.
Was he not also the guy who hip checked Nash against the suns leading the the suspensions? Very likely the spurs don't win either without him.
Castle Black wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:Castle Black wrote:I'm extremely grateful for Horry's time with the Spurs. They likely lose the 2005 NBA Finals if not for his late-game heroics in Game 5.
Was he not also the guy who hip checked Nash against the suns leading the the suspensions? Very likely the spurs don't win either without him.
Yea I had already added that in the very next sentence lol.
dhsilv2 wrote:Ruma85 wrote:parapooper wrote:All this whining about Horry scoring single digit points is so pointless
If Horry can positively impact the game __without__ taking the ball from high-usage guys who need it to have any impact that makes him even more valuable in the context of stacked teams and championship probability, not less
Let's compare Horry to everyone's favorite scorer:
Caramely Ant-honey:
-- 30,000+ career points (incl PS)
-- 10x all-star
-- 6 years with MVP votes
Horry 2000-2007 (age 29-36)
average points scored: 5.6
Overall points scored above replacement level: -116
4-year-rapm average rank (nbarapm.com): 27th (range 15th -43rd)
Melo 2013-2020 (age 28-35) - favorable age range compared to what we have Horry-RAPM for, includes a season when he is scoring leader and prevents Lebron in arguably his GOAT peak season from getting a unanimous MVP)
average points scored: 22.1
Overall points scored above replacement level: -142
4-year-rapm average rank (regular season!): 258th (range 42nd - 734th)
-> over a favorable stretch, in Melo's best year by RAPM he is ranked about the same as Horry's ___worst___ year -- in the regular season!
Then Melo gets _way_ worse in the PS and Horry gets _way_ better:
postseason RAPM (97-24):
Horry: +3 = 25th
Melo: -3.1 = 1413th (equally bad impact on offense and defense!)
out of 1507
---> Horry is a _____wildly____ superior player to Melo in a playoff team impact context, but is treated as way inferior because he doesn't take a lot of shots
Not quite sure I understand where your going with this, Horry was very impactful despite his offensive numbers why compare the two, there roles are vastly different.
How do you rank Stockton vs Moses Malone if you can only rank players on their roles? Or how do you put Rodman in the hall with a smaller role than Horry? At some point we just accept that people do enough to make their teams win or they didn't.
Ruma85 wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:Ruma85 wrote:
Not quite sure I understand where your going with this, Horry was very impactful despite his offensive numbers why compare the two, there roles are vastly different.
How do you rank Stockton vs Moses Malone if you can only rank players on their roles? Or how do you put Rodman in the hall with a smaller role than Horry? At some point we just accept that people do enough to make their teams win or they didn't.
I didn't say you cannot compare, there's a better way to explain his impact than comparing him to a 1 option, for most of his career.
dhsilv2 wrote:Ruma85 wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:
How do you rank Stockton vs Moses Malone if you can only rank players on their roles? Or how do you put Rodman in the hall with a smaller role than Horry? At some point we just accept that people do enough to make their teams win or they didn't.
I didn't say you cannot compare, there's a better way to explain his impact than comparing him to a 1 option, for most of his career.
He's trying to point out that just because you score a lot of points doesn't mean you're having more impact. And Melo is the board's personal punching bag for that. I agree Melo isn't the ideal comp if we're looking for a similar player. That said, I'd rather see Horry in the hall than Melo and Melo 100% is getting in and based on the awards he got...well deserved. Based on his impact on winning? I'd rather see Horry in. Those two could change careers 1000x over and I'd bet money Horry wins more than Melo on average. And that doesn't seem like the worst way to judge how good a player was.
Karate Diop wrote:https://youtu.be/CqZQ7fYavT4?si=5saDo1n5y6nNf5rQ
As the spastic kids like to say nowadays iykyk (am I doing this right?)