Cavs, Suns and Jazz

[HornetJail]

i actually liked this one for CLE. Richards is a nobody, but expires after the season, and I liked Royce O'Neale's fit behind Hunter after trading Okoro. But I don't see Utah having interest without some pick going back.

[jbk1234]

Strus is not good at all, dont see how Cle gets 2 serviceable players for him

Strus starts and is the best player in the trade. He shot .386 from 3 last season on a hair under 6 apg. He was +8.9 last season.

Strus is fine, if a bit overpaid. It's the additional year that makes it a nonstarter for Utah. Everything they've done this summer fits their reported plan of maximizing cap space next summer. I don't see them deviating from that for Max.

It's not clear to me how $16M per for a starting-caliber 3 & D wing is overpaid. He shoots well. He has a really positive +/-. It's not like the Cavs F.O. is looking to move him.

He's the best player in the trade and it's more than a little crazy that fan of teams without better alternatives are turning their nose up at him.

[babyjax13]

Strus starts and is the best player in the trade. He shot .386 from 3 last season on a hair under 6 apg. He was +8.9 last season.

Strus is fine, if a bit overpaid. It's the additional year that makes it a nonstarter for Utah. Everything they've done this summer fits their reported plan of maximizing cap space next summer. I don't see them deviating from that for Max.

It's not clear to me how $16M per for a starting-caliber 3 & D wing is overpaid. He shoots well. He has a really positive +/-. It's not like the Cavs F.O. is looking to move him.

He's the best player in the trade and it's more than a little crazy that fan of teams without better alternatives are turning their nose up at him.

Who is to say we don't have better alternatives? Or, at least, more important alternatives? $16 million for someone to backup Sensabaugh and Bailey isn't appealing, and I agree that he is overpaid relative to production. How many teams is he actually a starter on? Is he actually better than similar players, or players that occupy similar offensive and/or defensive roles? E.g., Luke Kennard has a positive BPM, scores on similar volume at better efficiency, handles the ball a bit, and isn't a total defensive seive. But he makes $5 million less...

[SkyHook]

Strus starts and is the best player in the trade. He shot .386 from 3 last season on a hair under 6 apg. He was +8.9 last season.

Strus is fine, if a bit overpaid. It's the additional year that makes it a nonstarter for Utah. Everything they've done this summer fits their reported plan of maximizing cap space next summer. I don't see them deviating from that for Max.

It's not clear to me how $16M per for a starting-caliber 3 & D wing is overpaid. He shoots well. He has a really positive +/-. It's not like the Cavs F.O. is looking to move him.

He's the best player in the trade and it's more than a little crazy that fan of teams without better alternatives are turning their nose up at him.

I didn't intend to be inflammatory. He's fine, a rotation guy, in and out of the starting lineup. To me that's an NTMLE guy at best. So, yes, just a bit overpaid, imo. If you see it differently, that's fine.

And even if he's a better alternative than most, if not all, of the wings on the Jazz, how does acquiring him help the team with their goals over the next 12 months? Winning more games is a negative this season, carrying unnecessary contracts is a negative next summer.

[jbk1234]

Strus is fine, if a bit overpaid. It's the additional year that makes it a nonstarter for Utah. Everything they've done this summer fits their reported plan of maximizing cap space next summer. I don't see them deviating from that for Max.

It's not clear to me how $16M per for a starting-caliber 3 & D wing is overpaid. He shoots well. He has a really positive +/-. It's not like the Cavs F.O. is looking to move him.

He's the best player in the trade and it's more than a little crazy that fan of teams without better alternatives are turning their nose up at him.

Who is to say we don't have better alternatives? Or, at least, more important alternatives? $16 million for someone to backup Sensabaugh and Bailey isn't appealing, and I agree that he is overpaid relative to production. How many teams is he actually a starter on? Is he actually better than similar players, or players that occupy similar offensive and/or defensive roles? E.g., Luke Kennard has a positive BPM, scores on similar volume at better efficiency, handles the ball a bit, and isn't a total defensive seive. But he makes $5 million less...

Strus is miles better than Kennard defensively which is why Kennard has never started anywhere (and why BPM is a garbage stat). If the Jazz don't want to trade for a player who likely starts in front of at least one prospect they want to develop, that's fine, but just say that. Strus isn't overpaid.

[SkyHook]

It's not clear to me how $16M per for a starting-caliber 3 & D wing is overpaid. He shoots well. He has a really positive +/-. It's not like the Cavs F.O. is looking to move him.

He's the best player in the trade and it's more than a little crazy that fan of teams without better alternatives are turning their nose up at him.

Who is to say we don't have better alternatives? Or, at least, more important alternatives? $16 million for someone to backup Sensabaugh and Bailey isn't appealing, and I agree that he is overpaid relative to production. How many teams is he actually a starter on? Is he actually better than similar players, or players that occupy similar offensive and/or defensive roles? E.g., Luke Kennard has a positive BPM, scores on similar volume at better efficiency, handles the ball a bit, and isn't a total defensive seive. But he makes $5 million less...

Strus is miles better than Kennard defensively which is why Kennard has never started anywhere (and why BPM is a garbage stat). If the Jazz don't want to trade for a player who likely starts in front of at least one prospect they want to develop, that's fine, but just say that. Strus isn't overpaid.

BPM isn't my first choice for all-in-one metrics, but I find it pretty damned funny that you're calling it a garbage stat when earlier you cited raw +/- numbers, which is about as muddy and useless a metric there is. Strus also has a higher defensive ranking in BPM than in the two other main catch alls for 2024-25, EPM & LEBRON.

[jbk1234]

Who is to say we don't have better alternatives? Or, at least, more important alternatives? $16 million for someone to backup Sensabaugh and Bailey isn't appealing, and I agree that he is overpaid relative to production. How many teams is he actually a starter on? Is he actually better than similar players, or players that occupy similar offensive and/or defensive roles? E.g., Luke Kennard has a positive BPM, scores on similar volume at better efficiency, handles the ball a bit, and isn't a total defensive seive. But he makes $5 million less...

Strus is miles better than Kennard defensively which is why Kennard has never started anywhere (and why BPM is a garbage stat). If the Jazz don't want to trade for a player who likely starts in front of at least one prospect they want to develop, that's fine, but just say that. Strus isn't overpaid.

BPM isn't my first choice for all-in-one metrics, but I find it pretty damned funny that you're calling it a garbage stat when earlier you cited raw +/- numbers, which is about as muddy and useless a metric there is. Strus also has a higher defensive ranking in BPM than in the two other main catch alls for 2024-25, EPM & LEBRON.

BPM is a projection of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. EPM is an estimation of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. If there's a delta after a large enough sample size, the raw number tells the truer tale and the models themselves are flawed.

[SkyHook]

Strus is miles better than Kennard defensively which is why Kennard has never started anywhere (and why BPM is a garbage stat). If the Jazz don't want to trade for a player who likely starts in front of at least one prospect they want to develop, that's fine, but just say that. Strus isn't overpaid.

BPM isn't my first choice for all-in-one metrics, but I find it pretty damned funny that you're calling it a garbage stat when earlier you cited raw +/- numbers, which is about as muddy and useless a metric there is. Strus also has a higher defensive ranking in BPM than in the two other main catch alls for 2024-25, EPM & LEBRON.

BPM is a projection of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. EPM is an estimation of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. If there's a delta after a large enough sample size, the raw number tells the truer tale and the models themselves are flawed.

Raw plus/minus numbers are incredibly noisy even in large sample sizes. For the entire 2024-25 season, do you know who had defensive on/off numbers in the same ballpark as Wemby (+7.2 to +7.8) and better net on/off numbers than him overall (+12.8 to +9.6, 6th highest in the league when filtering out small sample sizes, <250min played)?

Spoiler:

John Collins. Now I may be higher on JC than the consensus of this board, but I'm not crazy enough to suggest that he's on par with Wemby as a defender and better than him on both ends of the floor combined.

[jbk1234]

BPM isn't my first choice for all-in-one metrics, but I find it pretty damned funny that you're calling it a garbage stat when earlier you cited raw +/- numbers, which is about as muddy and useless a metric there is. Strus also has a higher defensive ranking in BPM than in the two other main catch alls for 2024-25, EPM & LEBRON.

BPM is a projection of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. EPM is an estimation of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. If there's a delta after a large enough sample size, the raw number tells the truer tale and the models themselves are flawed.

Raw plus/minus numbers are incredibly noisy even in large sample sizes. For the entire 2024-25 season, do you know who had defensive on/off numbers in the same ballpark as Wemby (+7.2 to +7.8) and better net on/off numbers than him overall (+12.8 to +9.6, 6th highest in the league when filtering out small sample sizes, <250min played)?

Spoiler:

John Collins. Now I may be higher on JC than the consensus of this board, but I'm not crazy enough to suggest that he's on par with Wemby as a defender and better than him on both ends of the floor combined.

You have to account for whether the player is a starter, and if he's coming off the bench, how good the starting unit is. Jtbc though, on/off isn't the same as as +/-. Collins was still -.3 last season.

[SkyHook]

BPM is a projection of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. EPM is an estimation of what +/- should be based on specific criteria in the model. If there's a delta after a large enough sample size, the raw number tells the truer tale and the models themselves are flawed.

Raw plus/minus numbers are incredibly noisy even in large sample sizes. For the entire 2024-25 season, do you know who had defensive on/off numbers in the same ballpark as Wemby (+7.2 to +7.8) and better net on/off numbers than him overall (+12.8 to +9.6, 6th highest in the league when filtering out small sample sizes, <250min played)?

Spoiler:

John Collins. Now I may be higher on JC than the consensus of this board, but I'm not crazy enough to suggest that he's on par with Wemby as a defender and better than him on both ends of the floor combined.

You have to account for whether the player is a starter, and if he's coming off the bench, how good the starting unit is. Jtbc though, on/off isn't the same as as +/-. Collins was still -.3 last season.

I think we're just talking past each other here. Both BBREF's OnCourt (yours) and On/Off (mine) are plus/minus metrics and both are incredibly noisy. Both are heavily influenced by who shares the court with the player (OnCourt) and who replaces the replaces the player when he sits (On/Off). The catch-alls attempt to account for those changes in personnel. If Evan Mobley was sharing the court with Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George rather than Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, his excellent OnCourt numbers would be virtually guaranteed to take a massive dive. These metrics each tell a story, just woefully incomplete ones. I just can't give them much credence.

[jbk1234]

Raw plus/minus numbers are incredibly noisy even in large sample sizes. For the entire 2024-25 season, do you know who had defensive on/off numbers in the same ballpark as Wemby (+7.2 to +7.8) and better net on/off numbers than him overall (+12.8 to +9.6, 6th highest in the league when filtering out small sample sizes, <250min played)?

Spoiler:

John Collins. Now I may be higher on JC than the consensus of this board, but I'm not crazy enough to suggest that he's on par with Wemby as a defender and better than him on both ends of the floor combined.

You have to account for whether the player is a starter, and if he's coming off the bench, how good the starting unit is. Jtbc though, on/off isn't the same as as +/-. Collins was still -.3 last season.

I think we're just talking past each other here. Both BBREF's OnCourt (yours) and On/Off (mine) are plus/minus metrics and both are incredibly noisy. Both are heavily influenced by who shares the court with the player (OnCourt) and who replaces the replaces the player when he sits (On/Off). The catch-alls attempt to account for those changes in personnel. If Evan Mobley was sharing the court with Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George rather than Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, his excellent OnCourt numbers would be virtually guaranteed to take a massive dive. These metrics each tell a story, just woefully incomplete ones. I just can't give them much credence.

I think you need to look at both of them. The Jazz were a lot better with Collins on than without him, but they still didn't manage a net positive result with him. It was close enough to nuetral to be encouraged, however he only started in 31 games.

[SkyHook]

You have to account for whether the player is a starter, and if he's coming off the bench, how good the starting unit is. Jtbc though, on/off isn't the same as as +/-. Collins was still -.3 last season.

I think we're just talking past each other here. Both BBREF's OnCourt (yours) and On/Off (mine) are plus/minus metrics and both are incredibly noisy. Both are heavily influenced by who shares the court with the player (OnCourt) and who replaces the replaces the player when he sits (On/Off). The catch-alls attempt to account for those changes in personnel. If Evan Mobley was sharing the court with Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George rather than Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, his excellent OnCourt numbers would be virtually guaranteed to take a massive dive. These metrics each tell a story, just woefully incomplete ones. I just can't give them much credence.

I think you need to look at both of them. The Jazz were a lot better with Collins on than without him, but they still didn't manage a net positive result with him. It was close enough to nuetral to be encouraged, however he only started in 31 games.

Agreed. I'm just saying that if you swap Collins for Mobley, I'd expect their respective raw OnCourt numbers to change drastically in opposite directions. We've seen OnCourt numbers swing dramatically when a player changes teams, but stays in a similar role. In those situations, did the players change or just the personnel around them?

[jbk1234]

I think we're just talking past each other here. Both BBREF's OnCourt (yours) and On/Off (mine) are plus/minus metrics and both are incredibly noisy. Both are heavily influenced by who shares the court with the player (OnCourt) and who replaces the replaces the player when he sits (On/Off). The catch-alls attempt to account for those changes in personnel. If Evan Mobley was sharing the court with Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George rather than Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, his excellent OnCourt numbers would be virtually guaranteed to take a massive dive. These metrics each tell a story, just woefully incomplete ones. I just can't give them much credence.

I think you need to look at both of them. The Jazz were a lot better with Collins on than without him, but they still didn't manage a net positive result with him. It was close enough to nuetral to be encouraged, however he only started in 31 games.

Agreed. I'm just saying that if you swap Collins for Mobley, I'd expect their respective raw OnCourt numbers to change drastically in opposite directions. We've seen OnCourt numbers swing dramatically when a player changes teams, but stays in a similar role. In those situations, did the players change or just the personnel around them?

I suspect you're underrating the defensive delta between these two players by a considerable margin.

[bgrep14]

I wouldn't mind the trade as a Cavs fan, Royce is 32 and I don't think the Cavs should add value here. I'd just condense this trade into Richards for Wade. Cavs need a backup center and Suns need a PF.

[jbk1234]

I wouldn't mind the trade as a Cavs fan, Royce is 32 and I don't think the Cavs should add value here. I'd just condense this trade into Richards for Wade. Cavs need a backup center and Suns need a PF.

We need a specific type of backup center and Richards ain't it.

[hcsilla]

Good trade.