Bird or Garnett?

[70sFan]

And yet Lebron is rated highly defensively, with so many years of lackluster and laziness.

James was named to an all-defensive team six times (all-1st team 5 times, all-2nd team once), 2008-09 to 2013-14, 2 years with Cleveland (who he lead in playing time at 6020 minutes), then 4 years with Miami (again lead them in playing time at 11,168 minutes).

Those 6 seasons the teams he played on averaged 102.6 pts/100poss allowed on defense.

Those same 6 years the only individual teams that were better than that on defense were Chicago (101.9 pts/100poss allowed) and Boston (102.1 pts/100poss allowed). The other 28 teams averaged 103.2 to 109.4 pts/100poss allowed.

So the seasons he was named to an all-defensive team his team was very good defensively.

Doesn't mean he was a big part of that. He had teammates that were solid on that end and the coaching focussed on that also. He had some good defense but is nowhere near the best at his position at that.

James is miles ahead of Bird defensively, it's silly to argue otherwise.

[migya]

James was named to an all-defensive team six times (all-1st team 5 times, all-2nd team once), 2008-09 to 2013-14, 2 years with Cleveland (who he lead in playing time at 6020 minutes), then 4 years with Miami (again lead them in playing time at 11,168 minutes).

Those 6 seasons the teams he played on averaged 102.6 pts/100poss allowed on defense.

Those same 6 years the only individual teams that were better than that on defense were Chicago (101.9 pts/100poss allowed) and Boston (102.1 pts/100poss allowed). The other 28 teams averaged 103.2 to 109.4 pts/100poss allowed.

So the seasons he was named to an all-defensive team his team was very good defensively.

Doesn't mean he was a big part of that. He had teammates that were solid on that end and the coaching focussed on that also. He had some good defense but is nowhere near the best at his position at that.

James is miles ahead of Bird defensively, it's silly to argue otherwise.

He is more athletic, Bird had better post positioning.

[tsherkin]

He is more athletic, Bird had better post positioning.

The why is somewhat irrelevant. James was definitely a much more effective, higher-impact defender than Bird. Physical tools were absolutely a huge part of it, LBJ was considerably quicker and stronger than Bird, and could get up way higher on his jumping. That's the way it goes, though. Those things helped him be much more problematic for the offense as a help defender, in his spots on the block and dealing with a live dribble.

[FrodoBaggins]

Squared2020's growing 1985-1986 RAPM sample isn't kind to Bird's defense. Not as bad as Barkley's, but squarely in the red.

[70sFan]

Doesn't mean he was a big part of that. He had teammates that were solid on that end and the coaching focussed on that also. He had some good defense but is nowhere near the best at his position at that.

James is miles ahead of Bird defensively, it's silly to argue otherwise.

He is more athletic, Bird had better post positioning.

Unfortunately, James is elite in that regard himself and Bird wasn't some kind of 1980s Draymond in terms of positional defense. I don't think he even has that as an advantage and it certainly doesn't matter in the overall evaluation.

[kcktiny]

James was definitely a much more effective, higher-impact defender than Bird.

Much more? Really?

I think in their primes James was the better defender, but not by "much more". You are grossly underestimating Bird's defense.

Physical tools were absolutely a huge part of it, LBJ was considerably quicker and stronger than Bird, and could get up way higher on his jumping.

Really? That sounds so definitive. Like it's no contest between the two. So astute.

Well - if that's the case, then explain this.

Bird was listed at 6-9 220/230 lb. James 6-8/6-9 250 lb.

Bird was in the league 9 seasons before getting hurt. Take those 9 seasons (1979-80 to 1987-88) and 9 seasons of James - I chose 2004-05 to 2012-13 for this example but you can choose ANY 9 of his seasons, and compare their defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks:

Bird - 27371 min, 5715 def rebs, 1294 steals, 598 blocks
James - 27252 min, 4271 def rebs, 1193 steals, 591 blocks

Similar minutes, but Bird was the much better defensive rebounder, had the higher per minute steal rate, and they were similar shot blockers (James slightly better on a per minute basis).

That's not just 1 or 2 but 3 defensive statistical categories Bird was similar to or better than James, despite this so-called purely athletic difference you claim favors James.

On top of that the other key component on defense is shot defense. Those 9 seasons of Bird the Celtics allowed the 2nd lowest 2pt FG% in the league at just 47.6% (only Milwaukee as a team allowed a lower 2pt FG%) with Bird playing - by far - the most minutes on the team all that time (6400+ more minutes than any other Celtics player).

Now how was all of this even remotely possible after what you just told us?

[70sFan]

So we now dispute that James was more athletic at his peak than Larry Bird because of rebound and steal numbers?

[Jaivl]

Doesn't mean he was a big part of that. He had teammates that were solid on that end and the coaching focussed on that also. He had some good defense but is nowhere near the best at his position at that.

James is miles ahead of Bird defensively, it's silly to argue otherwise.

He is more athletic, Bird had better post positioning.

Steph Curry was a better shooter, but Andre Miller had a better post-up. Probably a wash offensively.

[homecourtloss]

James was named to an all-defensive team six times (all-1st team 5 times, all-2nd team once), 2008-09 to 2013-14, 2 years with Cleveland (who he lead in playing time at 6020 minutes), then 4 years with Miami (again lead them in playing time at 11,168 minutes).

Those 6 seasons the teams he played on averaged 102.6 pts/100poss allowed on defense.

Those same 6 years the only individual teams that were better than that on defense were Chicago (101.9 pts/100poss allowed) and Boston (102.1 pts/100poss allowed). The other 28 teams averaged 103.2 to 109.4 pts/100poss allowed.

So the seasons he was named to an all-defensive team his team was very good defensively.

Doesn't mean he was a big part of that. He had teammates that were solid on that end and the coaching focussed on that also. He had some good defense but is nowhere near the best at his position at that.

Data apparently means absolutely nothing to some.

[homecourtloss]

James was definitely a much more effective, higher-impact defender than Bird.

Much more? Really?

I think in their primes James was the better defender, but not by "much more". You are grossly underestimating Bird's defense.

Physical tools were absolutely a huge part of it, LBJ was considerably quicker and stronger than Bird, and could get up way higher on his jumping.

Really? That sounds so definitive. Like it's no contest between the two. So astute.

Well - if that's the case, then explain this.

Bird was listed at 6-9 220/230 lb. James 6-8/6-9 250 lb.

Bird was in the league 9 seasons before getting hurt. Take those 9 seasons (1979-80 to 1987-88) and 9 seasons of James - I chose 2004-05 to 2012-13 for this example but you can choose ANY 9 of his seasons, and compare their defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks:

Bird - 27371 min, 5715 def rebs, 1294 steals, 598 blocks
James - 27252 min, 4271 def rebs, 1193 steals, 591 blocks

Similar minutes, but Bird was the much better defensive rebounder, had the higher per minute steal rate, and they were similar shot blockers (James slightly better on a per minute basis).

That's not just 1 or 2 but 3 defensive statistical categories Bird was similar to or better than James, despite this so-called purely athletic difference you claim favors James.

On top of that the other key component on defense is shot defense. Those 9 seasons of Bird the Celtics allowed the 2nd lowest 2pt FG% in the league at just 47.6% (only Milwaukee as a team allowed a lower 2pt FG%) with Bird playing - by far - the most minutes on the team all that time (6400+ more minutes than any other Celtics player).

Now how was all of this even remotely possible after what you just told us?

At best, Bird was a slightly positive defender from 1980 through 1986. He was strong, had very strong hands, and positioned himself well. From 1987 through the end of his career, he was a negative defender, with the worst-case possibility being a very bad defender. The available data we have this corroborates this as does watching any extended film.

James has been a 95th+ percentile defender from 2008 through 2021 with exceptions in 2014 and 2018 when he was trying to carry the offensive load on injury depleted, weak talent teams.

At age 35 and 36 in 2020 and 2021, all the available data that we highly suggest that older James at the end of HIS prime (past prime for just about everyother player) was a much better defender than Bird ever was at his peak.

[kcktiny]

Data apparently means absolutely nothing to some.

Funny you should say that. Because...

At best, Bird was a slightly positive defender from 1980 through 1986.

At best?

From 1979-80 to 1985-86 the Celtics were the 2nd best defensive team in the league at 102.0 pts/100poss allowed. Only Milwaukee was better defensively (101.1 pts/100poss allowed). The other 22 teams ranged from 102.3 to 109.6 pts/100poss allowed. The average those 7 seasons was 105.2 pts/100poss allowed.

And those 7 seasons Bird alone played 1/7 to 1/6 of Boston's total minutes played. He played 5826 more minutes than any other Celtics player, 7452 more minutes than McHale, and 13,028 more minutes than Dennis Johnson. Bird played 21,401 minutes those 7 seasons, almost as many as McHale and D.J. did combined (22,322).

But - again - that Celtics team was 2nd best defensively in the league over those 7 seasons.

So I ask, if Bird was just a slightly better than average defender, how was that Boston team so good defensively for so long (7 seasons)?

The available data we have this corroborates this

What data might that be?

[FrodoBaggins]

https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

[kcktiny]

So just what are these numbers supposed to mean?

Over a few hundred games Magic Johnson has a higher DRAPM than does Michael Jordan. Does that infer Magic was better on defense than Jordan? I ask as during that time frame Jordan was all-defensive 1st team 7 times, Magic never sniffed an all-defensive team.

Also Toni Kukoc has a higher DRAPM than does Dennis Rodman. Rodman was all-defensive 1st team 8 times in that time span, Kukoc never.

Or am I misinterpreting just exactly what these numbers mean?

If a higher DRAPM is supposed to infer better defense, then this listing doesn't exactly pass the laugh test, does it?

[SNPA]

Bird is a defensive genius, just like he was on offense. Whenever I watch a Bird game he just keeps showing up in the right place at the right time. Anyone got a stat for that? Because it’s obvious if one watches a few Bird games.

[migya]

So just what are these numbers supposed to mean?

Over a few hundred games Magic Johnson has a higher DRAPM than does Michael Jordan. Does that infer Magic was better on defense than Jordan? I ask as during that time frame Jordan was all-defensive 1st team 7 times, Magic never sniffed an all-defensive team.

Also Toni Kukoc has a higher DRAPM than does Dennis Rodman. Rodman was all-defensive 1st team 8 times in that time span, Kukoc never.

Or am I misinterpreting just exactly what these numbers mean?

If a higher DRAPM is supposed to infer better defense, then this listing doesn't exactly pass the laugh test, does it?

Metrics are everything, resistance is futile

[70sFan]

Bird is a defensive genius, just like he was on offense. Whenever I watch a Bird game he just keeps showing up in the right place at the right time. Anyone got a stat for that? Because it’s obvious if one watches a few Bird games.

Bird was a gambler on defense, he was very good at reading offense and playing a guess games with them. He's not an elite positional defender though and he had plenty of limitations preventing him from being elite defender.

Bird was a strong positive in his defensive prime (1980-86), but this goes a bit too far here.

Also, a quick reminder that you can play tons of minutes on elite defensive teams without being a great defender. 1999-02 Sixers with Iverson, 2010-12 Bulls with Rose, 2000s Spurs with Parker. None of these guys are even positive defensively.

[homecourtloss]

What data might that be?

Pretty much all of it.

[FrodoBaggins]

Bird is a defensive genius, just like he was on offense. Whenever I watch a Bird game he just keeps showing up in the right place at the right time. Anyone got a stat for that? Because it’s obvious if one watches a few Bird games.

Bird was a gambler on defense, he was very good at reading offense and playing a guess games with them. He's not an elite positional defender though and he had plenty of limitations preventing him from being elite defender.

Bird was a strong positive in his defensive prime (1980-86), but this goes a bit too far here.

Also, a quick reminder that you can play tons of minutes on elite defensive teams without being a great defender. 1999-02 Sixers with Iverson, 2010-12 Bulls with Rose, 2000s Spurs with Parker. None of these guys are even positive defensively.

Boozer (2011-2014) in Chicago & Big Al in Charlotte (2013-14) are more good examples. Scheme, rotations/lineups, and coaching in general appear to have a greater influence on defense than offense. Jeremias Engelmann's coach RAPM gives a much higher ceiling for DRAPM than ORAPM.

1. Mike Fratello -4.0 DRAPM
2. Scott Skiles -3.3
3. Jeff Van Gundy -3.1
4. Brian Shaw -2.7
5. Jim O'Brien -2.6

1. Sam Mitchell +1.2 ORAPM
2. George Karl +1.2
3. Kenny Atkinson +1.0
4. Tony Barone +0.9
5. Alvin Gentry +0.9

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_coach.html

Coach RAPM gets calculated just like regular RAPM, with the simple difference that the coach of the team is treated as a 6th player on the court.

The analysis cannot answer whether a coach is giving more minutes to the "correct" players.

Instead, it tries to estimate the coach's impact on team performance while adjusting for the quality of the players and the opponents

Cross-validation and penalization is used to determine whether a coach is having a larger impact on offense or defense. The results clearly indicate, that coaches have more impact on defense.

In the context of this analysis, players get an "age adjustment". Given that 29 years of data are being used, it would be unfair to penalize a coach for performing less well with, say, 38-year old Shaq, vs prime Shaq. All players are currently assumed to follow the same aging curve (work in progress..)
Player injuries are not yet considered.

There are certainly several valid critiques of the concept of coach RAPM, but it's interesting how JE's data points to greater defensive impact. That aligns with my general thoughts on the nature of the game: defense being more reactive and therefore requiring more structure, synchronization, and coordination; offense being more instinctive and intuitive, giving individual players more control & therefore influence.

[SNPA]

Bird is a defensive genius, just like he was on offense. Whenever I watch a Bird game he just keeps showing up in the right place at the right time. Anyone got a stat for that? Because it’s obvious if one watches a few Bird games.

Bird was a gambler on defense, he was very good at reading offense and playing a guess games with them. He's not an elite positional defender though and he had plenty of limitations preventing him from being elite defender.

Bird was a strong positive in his defensive prime (1980-86), but this goes a bit too far here.

Also, a quick reminder that you can play tons of minutes on elite defensive teams without being a great defender. 1999-02 Sixers with Iverson, 2010-12 Bulls with Rose, 2000s Spurs with Parker. None of these guys are even positive defensively.

Boozer (2011-2014) in Chicago & Big Al in Charlotte (2013-14) are more good examples. Scheme, rotations/lineups, and coaching in general appear to have a greater influence on defense than offense. Jeremias Engelmann's coach RAPM gives a much higher ceiling for DRAPM than ORAPM.

1. Mike Fratello -4.0 DRAPM
2. Scott Skiles -3.3
3. Jeff Van Gundy -3.1
4. Brian Shaw -2.7
5. Jim O'Brien -2.6

1. Sam Mitchell +1.2 ORAPM
2. George Karl +1.2
3. Kenny Atkinson +1.0
4. Tony Barone +0.9
5. Alvin Gentry +0.9

https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_coach.html

Coach RAPM gets calculated just like regular RAPM, with the simple difference that the coach of the team is treated as a 6th player on the court.

The analysis cannot answer whether a coach is giving more minutes to the "correct" players.

Instead, it tries to estimate the coach's impact on team performance while adjusting for the quality of the players and the opponents

Cross-validation and penalization is used to determine whether a coach is having a larger impact on offense or defense. The results clearly indicate, that coaches have more impact on defense.

In the context of this analysis, players get an "age adjustment". Given that 29 years of data are being used, it would be unfair to penalize a coach for performing less well with, say, 38-year old Shaq, vs prime Shaq. All players are currently assumed to follow the same aging curve (work in progress..)
Player injuries are not yet considered.

There are certainly several valid critiques of the concept of coach RAPM, but it's interesting how JE's data points to greater defensive impact. That aligns with my general thoughts on the nature of the game: defense being more reactive and therefore requiring more structure, synchronization, and coordination; offense being more instinctive and intuitive, giving individual players more control & therefore influence.

Boozer and Big Al. How many all D teams did those guys make?

[Top10alltime]

I struggle to call Bird an outright positive on D.

Larry Bird? All-defensive team 3 straight years, played - by far - the most minutes on a Celtics team that over 9 seasons was the 2nd best defensive team in the league.

Talk about missing the obvious.

All-defensive teams don't matter. What you did on the court was.

And the minutes he played were mostly with McHale and Parish. He had an excellent defensive supporting cast, and was never top 2 defensively on his own team.