With the 31st pick, the Raptors select Jonathan Mogbo

[MoneyBall]

Why?

As to the triple double, I mean, that's about as an empty evaluation as one can find. Using a one-game analysis doesn't make any sense, particularly when CMB has a lot more polish in other areas.

CMB hasn't played a single game yet. I see Mogbo being better than him in year one and even improving. Rookies usually build on their prior year and Mogbo looks like he's double down on significant weaknesses like finishing. I would bet he does better than CMB next year.

It would be a shock, and an utter disappointment, if CMB is worse than Mogbo this year.

I mean, SUPER small sample alert, but CMB already cleared him in summer league despite it being his first processional experience.

You would be shocked?

CMB is nearly 4 years younger than Mogbo. Mogbo's defense was no worse than 3rd best on the team last season. You'd consider CMB first year an utter disappointmen if he didn't surpass that?

[YogurtProducer]

CMB hasn't played a single game yet. I see Mogbo being better than him in year one and even improving. Rookies usually build on their prior year and Mogbo looks like he's double down on significant weaknesses like finishing. I would bet he does better than CMB next year.

It would be a shock, and an utter disappointment, if CMB is worse than Mogbo this year.

I mean, SUPER small sample alert, but CMB already cleared him in summer league despite it being his first processional experience.

You would be shocked?

CMB is nearly 4 years younger than Mogbo. Mogbo's defense was no worse than 3rd best on the team last season. You'd consider CMB first year an utter disappointmen if he didn't surpass that?

Yeah, I’d expect our top 10 lottery pick to be better than a 2nd rounder who was just meh as a rookie.

I don’t care how good his defence was. His offense was so bad it negated it.

[Thaddy]

It would be a shock, and an utter disappointment, if CMB is worse than Mogbo this year.

I mean, SUPER small sample alert, but CMB already cleared him in summer league despite it being his first processional experience.

You would be shocked?

CMB is nearly 4 years younger than Mogbo. Mogbo's defense was no worse than 3rd best on the team last season. You'd consider CMB first year an utter disappointmen if he didn't surpass that?

Yeah, I’d expect our top 10 lottery pick to be better than a 2nd rounder who was just meh as a rookie.

I don’t care how good his defence was. His offense was so bad it negated it.

Mogbo wasn't meh on defense. He was one of the best on our team. If he is a good finisher this year where would you rank him?

[C_Money]

Besides Orlando, no other team in the league is as high on these offensively challenged forwards as we are. You definitely don’t want too many of them which we’ve already made the mistake of doing once.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Jonathan "Just pass the ball" Mogbo.

[MoneyBall]

It would be a shock, and an utter disappointment, if CMB is worse than Mogbo this year.

I mean, SUPER small sample alert, but CMB already cleared him in summer league despite it being his first processional experience.

You would be shocked?

CMB is nearly 4 years younger than Mogbo. Mogbo's defense was no worse than 3rd best on the team last season. You'd consider CMB first year an utter disappointmen if he didn't surpass that?

Yeah, I’d expect our top 10 lottery pick to be better than a 2nd rounder who was just meh as a rookie.

I don’t care how good his defence was. His offense was so bad it negated it.

That's such a simplistic and shallow way to set expectations for our new players. Older, more experienced players often get picked later in the draft.

It's quite rare for a defensive minded rookie to come into the NBA and finish the season as a net positive on offense. OG, Draymond, Bam, etc all finished their first season with a poor net offense negating their positive net defense.

Seriously, please list all the ways you expect CMB to be clearly better than Mogbo on offense. Outside shooting? Jump shot? Ball handling? Playmaking? Offensive rebounding?

CMB is 20 years old. I don't care if he had been picked 1st overall, he's highly likely going to be a net negative on offense his rookie season. If not, then we might have Kawhi 2.0 on our hands.

[YogurtProducer]

You would be shocked?

CMB is nearly 4 years younger than Mogbo. Mogbo's defense was no worse than 3rd best on the team last season. You'd consider CMB first year an utter disappointmen if he didn't surpass that?

Yeah, I’d expect our top 10 lottery pick to be better than a 2nd rounder who was just meh as a rookie.

I don’t care how good his defence was. His offense was so bad it negated it.

That's such a simplistic and shallow way to set expectations for our new players. Older, more experienced players often get picked later in the draft.

It's quite rare for a defensive minded rookie to come into the NBA and finish the season as a net positive on offense. OG, Draymond, Bam, etc all finished their first season with a poor net offense negating their positive net defense.

Seriously, please list all the ways you expect CMB to be clearly better than Mogbo on offense. Outside shooting? Jump shot? Ball handling? Playmaking? Offensive rebounding?

CMB is 20 years old. I don't care if he had been picked 1st overall, he's highly likely going to be a net negative on offense his rookie season. If not, then we might have Kawhi 2.0 on our hands.

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

[GLF]

Yeah, I’d expect our top 10 lottery pick to be better than a 2nd rounder who was just meh as a rookie.

I don’t care how good his defence was. His offense was so bad it negated it.

That's such a simplistic and shallow way to set expectations for our new players. Older, more experienced players often get picked later in the draft.

It's quite rare for a defensive minded rookie to come into the NBA and finish the season as a net positive on offense. OG, Draymond, Bam, etc all finished their first season with a poor net offense negating their positive net defense.

Seriously, please list all the ways you expect CMB to be clearly better than Mogbo on offense. Outside shooting? Jump shot? Ball handling? Playmaking? Offensive rebounding?

CMB is 20 years old. I don't care if he had been picked 1st overall, he's highly likely going to be a net negative on offense his rookie season. If not, then we might have Kawhi 2.0 on our hands.

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

Exactly. Like I don’t think people understand how bad Mogbo was offensively. He literally could not finish at the basket if it wasn’t a dunk. CMB has miles better touch at the basket already than Mogbo. There is literally nothing offensively that CMB is worse than Mogbo at lol. Maybe free throw shooting but that’s it. Now as you said, there are levels of bad. CMB being better than Mogbo offensively in his rookie year does not mean he’ll be a positive because being better than Mogbo offensively is a very easy accomplishment lol. Mogbo wasn’t just bad he was terrible. And yes most rookies are a net negative so I don’t expect CMB to be a positive, but I still expect him to be better than Mogbo on that end. That is actually very low expectations in my opinion. Unless Mogbo comes back this season significantly improved.

[YogurtProducer]

That's such a simplistic and shallow way to set expectations for our new players. Older, more experienced players often get picked later in the draft.

It's quite rare for a defensive minded rookie to come into the NBA and finish the season as a net positive on offense. OG, Draymond, Bam, etc all finished their first season with a poor net offense negating their positive net defense.

Seriously, please list all the ways you expect CMB to be clearly better than Mogbo on offense. Outside shooting? Jump shot? Ball handling? Playmaking? Offensive rebounding?

CMB is 20 years old. I don't care if he had been picked 1st overall, he's highly likely going to be a net negative on offense his rookie season. If not, then we might have Kawhi 2.0 on our hands.

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

Exactly. Like I don’t think people understand how bad Mogbo was offensively. He literally could not finish at the basket if it weren’t a dunk. CMB has miles better touch at the basket already than Mogbo. There is literally nothing offensively that CMB is worse than Mogbo at lol. Maybe free throw shooting but that’s it. Now as you said, there are levels of bad. CMB being better than Mogbo offensively in his rookie year does not mean he’ll be a positive because being better than Mogbo offensively is a very easy accomplishment lol. Mogbo wasn’t just bad he was terrible. And yes most rookies are a net negative so I don’t expect CMB to be a positive, but I still expect him to be better than Mogbo on that end. That is actually very low expectations in my opinion. Unless Mogbo comes back this season significantly improved.

Exactly.

And I am a Mogbo fan, but Mogbo's realistic ceiling and CMB's floor is probably about the same in terms of impact (even if they go about it in different ways).

CMB to me screams "role player at worst", but it is a let down if that is all we get. If Mogbo develops into a playable 6-9th man that is a huge win.

Edit: And didn't CMB start over Mogbo in summer league anyways? The team obviously already thinks higher of him.

[GLF]

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

Exactly. Like I don’t think people understand how bad Mogbo was offensively. He literally could not finish at the basket if it weren’t a dunk. CMB has miles better touch at the basket already than Mogbo. There is literally nothing offensively that CMB is worse than Mogbo at lol. Maybe free throw shooting but that’s it. Now as you said, there are levels of bad. CMB being better than Mogbo offensively in his rookie year does not mean he’ll be a positive because being better than Mogbo offensively is a very easy accomplishment lol. Mogbo wasn’t just bad he was terrible. And yes most rookies are a net negative so I don’t expect CMB to be a positive, but I still expect him to be better than Mogbo on that end. That is actually very low expectations in my opinion. Unless Mogbo comes back this season significantly improved.

Exactly.

And I am a Mogbo fan, but Mogbo's realistic ceiling and CMB's floor is probably about the same in terms of impact (even if they go about it in different ways).

CMB to me screams "role player at worst", but it is a let down if that is all we get. If Mogbo develops into a playable 6-9th man that is a huge win.

Edit: And didn't CMB start over Mogbo in summer league anyways? The team obviously already thinks higher of him.

Couldn’t agree more. I am also a Mogbo fan and still believe in him and hope he figures it out offensively because that defence is elite, but CMB just has a much higher floor and ceiling. And that’s okay because Mogbo was a second round pick. If he becomes a 6-9th man out of merit and not just because the team has no one else, we won. Most second round picks end up of out the league eventually. And that’s what I’m looking forward to the most this season, competition from within.

Other than PG we have competition at every other position and because we are going to be trying to win, the players who become our 6-10th men would have won out and got it on merit, not just because we are tanking and force feeding young players minutes whether they deserve them or not. We should actually get to see who can perform when games have meaning and you need to play winning basketball. We may have our favs but we actually have no clue who of Ja’Kobe, Gradey, Ochai, Battle, Mogbo, CMB, Mamu etc. will rise to the occasion. But whoever does will be the ones to solidify those 6-10th slots and that’s when youn can look to make trades to improve other positions. Who we may think or hope will be the best of the bunch may not, everything is just on paper right now. That’s why they have to play the games.

[MoneyBall]

Yeah, I’d expect our top 10 lottery pick to be better than a 2nd rounder who was just meh as a rookie.

I don’t care how good his defence was. His offense was so bad it negated it.

That's such a simplistic and shallow way to set expectations for our new players. Older, more experienced players often get picked later in the draft.

It's quite rare for a defensive minded rookie to come into the NBA and finish the season as a net positive on offense. OG, Draymond, Bam, etc all finished their first season with a poor net offense negating their positive net defense.

Seriously, please list all the ways you expect CMB to be clearly better than Mogbo on offense. Outside shooting? Jump shot? Ball handling? Playmaking? Offensive rebounding?

CMB is 20 years old. I don't care if he had been picked 1st overall, he's highly likely going to be a net negative on offense his rookie season. If not, then we might have Kawhi 2.0 on our hands.

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

Draymond was *worse*. Siakam was *worse*. OG as a sophomore was in the same tier as rookie Mogbo.

We're not comparing CMB to rookie Mogbo, we're comparing CMB to sophomore Mogbo. You're not giving any wiggle room for even the possibility of Mogbo improving over last season.

The fact that Mogbo played on a garbage team is actually an argument in defense of him, not against him. Players generally produce better when they are surrounded by really good and complimentary players, which obviously wasn't the case for him last season.

By your own admission, CMB had similar offensive production to Mogbo in college. Many of CMB flaws on offense overlap with Mogbo's. Even if CMB is slightly better on offense, will he be able to match or surpass Mogbo as the third best defensive player on the team? That's a tall task for him to accomplish as a 20 year old.

[tsherkin]

And yes most rookies are a net negative so I don’t expect CMB to be a positive, but I still expect him to be better than Mogbo on that end.

I think a lot of that comes from throwing them into the fire on O for a bad team, though. I don't think we'll be doing that, so there's a pretty good chance that he'll spend most of his time screening, hustling in transition, hitting the O-boards and maybe ducking in around penetration. With our roster, we won't likely be asking much of him in terms of self-creation, so the odds of him being able to narrow his focus and simplify his game are higher.

[Basketball_Jones]

CMB has better hands and decision making than Mogbo so I think offensively he’s probably just as good already but we’ll see. Finishing will likely always be a point of contention with both of them only being 6’7” and favouring playing inside. Unless you’re a freak like Zion you’d better get a jump shot and be able to play SF too which I think CMB has a fair shot of doing.

[ConSarnit]

That's such a simplistic and shallow way to set expectations for our new players. Older, more experienced players often get picked later in the draft.

It's quite rare for a defensive minded rookie to come into the NBA and finish the season as a net positive on offense. OG, Draymond, Bam, etc all finished their first season with a poor net offense negating their positive net defense.

Seriously, please list all the ways you expect CMB to be clearly better than Mogbo on offense. Outside shooting? Jump shot? Ball handling? Playmaking? Offensive rebounding?

CMB is 20 years old. I don't care if he had been picked 1st overall, he's highly likely going to be a net negative on offense his rookie season. If not, then we might have Kawhi 2.0 on our hands.

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

Draymond was *worse*. Siakam was *worse*. OG as a sophomore was in the same tier as rookie Mogbo.

We're not comparing CMB to rookie Mogbo, we're comparing CMB to sophomore Mogbo. You're not giving any wiggle room for even the possibility of Mogbo improving over last season.

The fact that Mogbo played on a garbage team is actually an argument in defense of him, not against him. Players generally produce better when they are surrounded by really good and complimentary players, which obviously wasn't the case for him last season.

By your own admission, CMB had similar offensive production to Mogbo in college. Many of CMB flaws on offense overlap with Mogbo's. Even if CMB is slightly better on offense, will he be able to match or surpass Mogbo as the third best defensive player on the team? That's a tall task for him to accomplish as a 20 year old.

Do you know how much wiggle room Mogbo needs to even become “bad” as an offensive player this year? Looks at his fg% by area last year

0-5ft: 57%
5-9ft: 28%
10-14ft: 33%
15-19ft: 29%
20-24ft: 28%
25-29ft: 20%

Do you know how bad those numbers are? Even his 57% at the rim is bad for a big.

You’re underestimating how bad Mogbo was last year and what type of leap it would take for him to even become “acceptable”. The bar for CMB to surpass him on offense is insanely low given what Mogbo did last year.

[PushDaRock]

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

Draymond was *worse*. Siakam was *worse*. OG as a sophomore was in the same tier as rookie Mogbo.

We're not comparing CMB to rookie Mogbo, we're comparing CMB to sophomore Mogbo. You're not giving any wiggle room for even the possibility of Mogbo improving over last season.

The fact that Mogbo played on a garbage team is actually an argument in defense of him, not against him. Players generally produce better when they are surrounded by really good and complimentary players, which obviously wasn't the case for him last season.

By your own admission, CMB had similar offensive production to Mogbo in college. Many of CMB flaws on offense overlap with Mogbo's. Even if CMB is slightly better on offense, will he be able to match or surpass Mogbo as the third best defensive player on the team? That's a tall task for him to accomplish as a 20 year old.

Do you know how much wiggle room Mogbo needs to even become “bad” as an offensive player this year? Looks at his fg% by area last year

0-5ft: 57%
5-9ft: 28%
10-14ft: 33%
15-19ft: 29%
20-24ft: 28%
25-29ft: 20%

Do you know how bad those numbers are? Even his 57% at the rim is bad for a big.

You’re underestimating how bad Mogbo was last year and what type of leap it would take for him to even become “acceptable”. The bar for CMB to surpass him on offense is insanely low given what Mogbo did last year.

Of course those are horrific numbers as a whole but there's some good stuff buried in there. 73.2% from the line was a positive and at least shows some level of shooting touch and 66 dunks over less than 1300 mins gives him at least a path to eventually become efficient. There's probably also nowhere to go but up, he's starting from a place where his offensive game is so bad that he almost has to improve rather than regress.

[ConSarnit]

Draymond was *worse*. Siakam was *worse*. OG as a sophomore was in the same tier as rookie Mogbo.

We're not comparing CMB to rookie Mogbo, we're comparing CMB to sophomore Mogbo. You're not giving any wiggle room for even the possibility of Mogbo improving over last season.

The fact that Mogbo played on a garbage team is actually an argument in defense of him, not against him. Players generally produce better when they are surrounded by really good and complimentary players, which obviously wasn't the case for him last season.

By your own admission, CMB had similar offensive production to Mogbo in college. Many of CMB flaws on offense overlap with Mogbo's. Even if CMB is slightly better on offense, will he be able to match or surpass Mogbo as the third best defensive player on the team? That's a tall task for him to accomplish as a 20 year old.

Do you know how much wiggle room Mogbo needs to even become “bad” as an offensive player this year? Looks at his fg% by area last year

0-5ft: 57%
5-9ft: 28%
10-14ft: 33%
15-19ft: 29%
20-24ft: 28%
25-29ft: 20%

Do you know how bad those numbers are? Even his 57% at the rim is bad for a big.

You’re underestimating how bad Mogbo was last year and what type of leap it would take for him to even become “acceptable”. The bar for CMB to surpass him on offense is insanely low given what Mogbo did last year.

Of course those are horrific numbers as a whole but there's some good stuff buried in there. 73.2% from the line was a positive and at least shows some level of shooting touch and 66 dunks over less than 1300 mins gives him at least a path to eventually become efficient. There's probably also nowhere to go but up, he's starting from a place where his offensive game is so bad that he almost has to improve rather than regress.

My overall point was that I’d expect CMB to be able match whatever Mogbo’s improvement is this year. Significant improvement from Mogbo would still put him in “below average” range. Mogbo has nowhere to go but up as a scorer.

I like Mogbo and think he has potential but I expect CMB to be better overall this upcoming season.

[tsherkin]

Things about Mogbo

I'm too lazy to pull the data from NBA.com for those specific zones, but let's look at his shooting from b-ref relative to league average, shall we?

League average by zone (0-3, 3-10, 10-16, 16-23 and 3pt):
69.6 / 46.1 / 44.3 / 40.0 / 36.0

Mogbo:
63.4 / 27.7 / 34.6 / 23.1 / 24.3

So that's -6.2, -18.4, -9.7, -16.9 and -11.7.

That's a whole new level of atrocious. And that's WITH 66 dunks, which were 21.6% of his FGA.

Duuuuuuuude...

There's a world of difference between that travesty and your average rookie, especially one with limited overall offensive responsibility coming in as CMB will enjoy.

[GLF]

Things about Mogbo

I'm too lazy to pull the data from NBA.com for those specific zones, but let's look at his shooting from b-ref relative to league average, shall we?

League average by zone (0-3, 3-10, 10-16, 16-23 and 3pt):
69.6 / 46.1 / 44.3 / 40.0 / 36.0

Mogbo:
63.4 / 27.7 / 34.6 / 23.1 / 24.3

So that's -6.2, -18.4, -9.7, -16.9 and -11.7.

That's a whole new level of atrocious. And that's WITH 66 dunks, which were 21.6% of his FGA.

Duuuuuuuude...

There's a world of difference between that travesty and your average rookie, especially one with limited overall offensive responsibility coming in as CMB will enjoy.

Exactly, and it’s not like it’s a rookie who has struggled with finishing in the past either. CMB is a very good finisher and has very good touch. He was doing that in the toughest conference and being the best player on his team so the scouting report would have been focused on stopping him. Even just watching his highlights you can see he was finishing some tough layups in the paint constantly. Thinking he’s going to be better than Mogbo in his first year is actually not crazy at all. Especially when it may even be easier for him than in college because there’s more space in the NBA and he isn’t going to be asked to do as much and he isn’t going to be the team’s best player and focal point. Mogbo was dunking everything in a terrible conference so we never got to see if he had any touch on layups. Sadly he clearly didn’t. Even if Mogbo improves from terrible to bad or slightly below average CMB should still be better.

[GLF]

Things about Mogbo

I'm too lazy to pull the data from NBA.com for those specific zones, but let's look at his shooting from b-ref relative to league average, shall we?

League average by zone (0-3, 3-10, 10-16, 16-23 and 3pt):
69.6 / 46.1 / 44.3 / 40.0 / 36.0

Mogbo:
63.4 / 27.7 / 34.6 / 23.1 / 24.3

So that's -6.2, -18.4, -9.7, -16.9 and -11.7.

That's a whole new level of atrocious. And that's WITH 66 dunks, which were 21.6% of his FGA.

Duuuuuuuude...

There's a world of difference between that travesty and your average rookie, especially one with limited overall offensive responsibility coming in as CMB will enjoy.

Also quick question, is there anywhere you can find league average for each position? Because I would assume some of these would be lower for a point guard for example wouldn’t it? Like the in the paint percentages

[tsherkin]

Also quick question, is there anywhere you can find league average for each position? Because I would assume some of these would be lower for a point guard for example wouldn’t it? Like the in the paint percentages

I don't know of a quick way to do it. I imagine if you have a scraper, you can grab the data from nba.com (for the originally-posted zones) and then pull it, filter it based on positional data and take it from there.

Exactly, and it’s not like it’s a rookie who has struggled with finishing in the past either. CMB is a very good finisher and has very good touch. He was doing that in the toughest conference and being the best player on his team so the scouting report would have been focused on stopping him. Even just watching his highlights you can see he was finishing some tough layups in the paint constantly. Thinking he’s going to be better than Mogbo in his first year is actually not crazy at all. Especially when it may even be easier for him than in college because there’s more space in the NBA and he isn’t going to be asked to do as much and he isn’t going to be the team’s best player and focal point. Mogbo was dunking everything in a terrible conference so we never got to see if he had any touch on layups. Sadly he clearly didn’t. Even if Mogbo improves from terrible to bad or slightly below average CMB should still be better.

It's encouraging to see Mogbo finishing with a little more touch, of course. I don't want to diminish him too much, it's just that he was profoundly horrible last year, so being better than he was won't be hard, nor uncommon. And then even with improvement, he's still so far from 'good' that there's little threat that Mogbo will be better than CMB this year...

And, of course, if he is? Well, then we have first-world problems and everyone should be celebrating, heh.