jnrjr79 wrote:MGB8 wrote:Here is what I think folks who just want to pay Giddey based on optimism/ small sample counting stats miss: to have a good team with Giddey starting, he 100% needs to be a “2nd scorer” on a good team. Meaning that on a top 4-6 team, his scoring efficiency and production, vs. good defenses, is strong enough to be a solid 2nd option.
That means that he MUST score over 20 ppg at high efficiency, with a good percentage, high volume from 3 so that he can’t be sloughed off on.
Anything less - and he limits the team to being, at best, an also ran, 4-8 seed type. Why? Because he will never be good on D - too slow laterally - so if he is only a “#3 scorer” type, then not only do the players around him have to make up for his defensive deficiencies, but you need basically an SGA/Ant/Steph/Luka/Lebron/Ja/Giannis level primary scorer PLUS an Anthony Davis, JJJ, Siakam when hot, Jaylen Williams like guy who is not only a legit good-team-#2 scorer, but also a good to great defender AND a guy who doesn’t need to be ball dominant (since pretty much all #1s are Ball Dominant and one such guy works with Giddey, 2 pushes Giddey off-ball and starts hurting both his production as well as team offense).
The risk that Giddey can’t maintain a high efficiency, over 20 ppg level (only dropping if more than 1 “2nd option-level” scorer with him along with a primary scorer) is very real. If he reverts to a 12-16 ppg guy on average to below average TS, along with his bad defense - he cripples your team if you need to play him starter minutes or pay him starter salary.
Given that very real risk, the Bulls are 100% right to not get anywhere near 30 M. Now, if he wanted to have something where he approaches 30 M year three but it is all non-guaranteed, and ditto year 4 at 30, with closer to 20 M both guaranteed and total in years 1 and 2 - that might make for a fair compromise. Given the team an out in exchange for upside.
The NBA only had 33 players average more than 20 PPG last season, so no, Giddey does not need to score over 20 PPG to be the Bulls' 2nd scorer. I don't think he even needs to be the second scorer at all, but he certainly doesn't need to be over 20 PPG.
That number is only if you filter by "qualified" players, excluding folks who missed too many games. There were 50 players who averaged over 20 PPG. 20 more who averaged 18 PPG or more. pretty much the same the year prior.
Some of the guys who were under 20 (but at or above 18) very easily could have scored more. Hali, for instance, averaged 18.6 but averaged over 20 PPG the prior 2 years. Markkanen, Randle, Sengun, Bane and others in same boat. Proven 20 PPG scorers even if 1 season slightly below.
Giddey has the ball in his hands a lot and is a small to mid minus off ball. He is a major minus on defense. To make up for both those deficiencies, he needs to be a scorer - not necessarily the top scorer or a 1st level option (like Luka, Kyrie, LeBron, Ja, Tatum, Giannis, Mitchell, Brunson, KAT, etc.). But at least a (good) 2nd option.
If he isn't, then his need for the ball to make him effective (due to being a slow shooter off ball, whose strength is his vision) starts getting in the way on offense, plus the weak defense is magnified because now another player has to be at least a 2nd scorer plus high end defender to make up for him.
Maybe Matas is that unicorn and will be a 2nd scorer plus elite defender and allow the team to be successful even if Giddey is materially less than what the end-season numbers showed. But that is asking a heck of a lot out of the kid.
Even then, the team in that spot would likely be better off with a PG who either can score more at a high efficiency, and doesn't put so much pressure on others to make up the difference, or who at least plays strong D (or isn't as big a liability, at least).
That is the risk w/ Giddey - if he isn't a 2nd option scorer - he kind of cripples your team - caps the ceiling.
