Dresden wrote:I'm all for letting the farm system produce and take it slow. This current team doesn't look like it's just a player or two away- they lack a bona fide stud hitter aside from PCA. Suzuki, Happ, Dansby, Busch- decent pieces, but not real stars.
I went to the game last night- 1-10 Verlander v. all star Boyd. Should have been an easy win, but they couldn't do much with Verlander or their bullpen. PCA and Dansby are the only two that hit the ball hard.
I'd be skeptical of Pete's bat longterm. He's an elite defender, but I don't think his bat projects to be what he was doing to start the season. Park factor adjustment in mind, I don't think he'll be a better hitter than Julio Rodriguez as an example, 121 OPS+ down from 147 his rookie season...Pete's at 129 after the free fall. He's been dreadful in August, hitting.484 OPS before going 1-4 with a single tonight, improving his month slightly, but still dropping his season-wide total. I could see him settling in as a ~.740 OPS hitter or maybe right around 115 OPS+. With his defense, that's still an incredible, 5 or 6 WAR player, best CF in the league.
There aren't a ton of great free agent bats this offseason, but maybe they try to sign Bichette and move him to a different infield position (likely 2b), re-sign Tucker, then sign a volatile SP on a 'prove it' kinda deal. Dylan Cease seems like the guy. See what the young players do and reassess at next year's deadline. I don't think they're getting worse besides my feeling that Shota is going to blow up. Frankly, my impression is the SP situation seems more tenuous than the offense.
That's a fair amount of money to spend, but Cease is probably not getting a huge deal and might just want to sign a 1 year deal somewhere, particularly in a city he's familiar with and seemed to enjoy playing in. He's better than his 4.8 ERA and is an ironman. I think he's only missed one start in his entire career (makes me think I should start doing yoga). Or go big and sign Ranger Suarez. Maybe get a second 'cheaper' SP, like Zach Eflin or Walker Buehler. Risky for sure, but likely signing pretty cheap deals. And it's dubious they'll even want to offer big money to Tucker or Bichette, let alone both of them in addition to a starting pitcher or three. I think the Cubs could blow this window if they don't though, just look at the Orioles. Cheaped out and essentially blew their chances at contending. Should've been in on Devers (who just went 4-4 for 2 HRs and 5 RBIs against the Cubbies lol), suggests to me they're not going to spend anything more than what they're already doing. That would be disappointing.
Maybe try to trade one of Alcantara or Caissie and some other lesser known prospects for a more proven hitter. Or just lower tier prospects for risky bats, whoever might be available. Brent Rooker or Law Dog from the A's? TB's Aranda? Actually, Ketel Marte seems like a perfect fit and is evidently available. I think their best path to improving is not internal development or free agency, but the trade market. Being a Sox fan, I'd want to keep Luis Robert despite his generally poor performance the last two seasons and thus because his trade value is rock bottom. But he's available, is returning to form, and Alcantara is a similar risk. I'd do that deal straight up and it could benefit both teams based on their current trajectories. The two teams seem to like trading with one another. Cubs could stomach Luis's $20mil player option and put him in a corner and hope his bat returns to form. And playing a corner is less taxing on his body. The Sox get a guy whose fallen down the prospect rankings and has a lot of bust potential, but can cover CF pretty well. That's probably his best skill and it seems redundant to PCA. Elite outfield defense at the very least and can decline his final option, maybe masking some of the SP woes. Cubs have the best defense in the league which is covering for the SPs, it could get even better if you run it back with Swanson and Hoerner in the middle infield (with their middling bats) and add a guy who could hit for .850 OPS, 30+ homers -- then maybe just need some SPs who don't give up a ton of homers. Taillon, Rea and even Shota are pretty homer friendly. I wouldn't trust any of those guys personally.