With the 31st pick, the Raptors select Jonathan Mogbo

[PoundTown]

CMB is significantly better with the ball, around the rim, as a jump shooter, and honestly could be just as good defensively.

If CMB isn’t at least Mogbo level this year, we are seriously disappointed. Mogbo was barely rotation level on a garbage team.

He likely will be a negative offensively, but Mogbo was also one of the leagues worst. There’s levels of “bad”.

You can go look at college production. Similar production except Mogbo was in a worse conference.

Exactly. Like I don’t think people understand how bad Mogbo was offensively. He literally could not finish at the basket if it weren’t a dunk. CMB has miles better touch at the basket already than Mogbo. There is literally nothing offensively that CMB is worse than Mogbo at lol. Maybe free throw shooting but that’s it. Now as you said, there are levels of bad. CMB being better than Mogbo offensively in his rookie year does not mean he’ll be a positive because being better than Mogbo offensively is a very easy accomplishment lol. Mogbo wasn’t just bad he was terrible. And yes most rookies are a net negative so I don’t expect CMB to be a positive, but I still expect him to be better than Mogbo on that end. That is actually very low expectations in my opinion. Unless Mogbo comes back this season significantly improved.

Exactly.

And I am a Mogbo fan, but Mogbo's realistic ceiling and CMB's floor is probably about the same in terms of impact (even if they go about it in different ways).

CMB to me screams "role player at worst", but it is a let down if that is all we get. If Mogbo develops into a playable 6-9th man that is a huge win.

Edit: And didn't CMB start over Mogbo in summer league anyways? The team obviously already thinks higher of him.

I think CMB will be able to develop a serviceable jumper from 3. His form and touch around the basket give me hope, and he seems like a guy that just needs to adjust to it because he is no longer big enough to be a 5 man like he has been his entire career. He however really knows how to process and play basketball and seems like recent growth, albeit sample size is slightly encouraging. The 3 years in age difference between him and mogbo is also worth nothing. Mogbos touch is currently good from
No where on the court, and CMB is much more fluid and composed when driving against a defender with much better body control for finishing. Mogbo needs space, where as CMB can go through or around his defender. Mogbo reminds me of having PJ tucker potential with better passing. PJ also had a bit of same issues driving and touch inside to a degree, and I think PJ is the ceiling for his jumper, but if Mogbo can develop a jumper as good as PJs by end of rookie contract, then he will probably be in nba for ten years and be a very serviceable player. CMB ceiling much higher. I keep saying offensively he reminds me of Corliss Williamson with more passing.

[MoneyBall]

Do you know how much wiggle room Mogbo needs to even become “bad” as an offensive player this year? Looks at his fg% by area last year

0-5ft: 57%
5-9ft: 28%
10-14ft: 33%
15-19ft: 29%
20-24ft: 28%
25-29ft: 20%

Do you know how bad those numbers are? Even his 57% at the rim is bad for a big.

You’re underestimating how bad Mogbo was last year and what type of leap it would take for him to even become “acceptable”. The bar for CMB to surpass him on offense is insanely low given what Mogbo did last year.

Of course those are horrific numbers as a whole but there's some good stuff buried in there. 73.2% from the line was a positive and at least shows some level of shooting touch and 66 dunks over less than 1300 mins gives him at least a path to eventually become efficient. There's probably also nowhere to go but up, he's starting from a place where his offensive game is so bad that he almost has to improve rather than regress.

My overall point was that I’d expect CMB to be able match whatever Mogbo’s improvement is this year. Significant improvement from Mogbo would still put him in “below average” range. Mogbo has nowhere to go but up as a scorer.

I like Mogbo and think he has potential but I expect CMB to be better overall this upcoming season.

That's fine, the question is, ought we consider CMB's rookie season an utter dissapointement if he doesn't surpass Mogbo this season? I mean, even if CMB finished with a carbon copy of Mogbo's stats of last season, it wouldn't show that he's a dissapointment. It would only show us that he's a monster on defense and needs improvement on offense. That's kind of what we should be expecting, no?

Seriously, go look at Draymond's rookie numbers on offense. While you're at it, go look at Siakam's, Poeltl's, OG’s, Middleton's, Carroll's, Bowen's, Josh Hart's, Dyson Daniels' etc. early career advanced metrics on offense. They are often just as bad, and in some cases worse. You make it sound like Mogbo's offense was historically bad for a defense first rookie, which is not true. Don't forget, Mogbo could also offset some of that terrible offense by additionally improving on his already great defense.

[Blazing_royale]

I don't have high expectation for Mogbo. I see an Amir Johnson with better handles.

[tsherkin]

I don't have high expectation for Mogbo. I see an Amir Johnson with better handles.

I'd be highly okay with that. Amir was a good player for us. Didn't threaten to become a star, but very useful.

[MoneyBall]

Things about Mogbo

I'm too lazy to pull the data from NBA.com for those specific zones, but let's look at his shooting from b-ref relative to league average, shall we?

League average by zone (0-3, 3-10, 10-16, 16-23 and 3pt):
69.6 / 46.1 / 44.3 / 40.0 / 36.0

Mogbo:
63.4 / 27.7 / 34.6 / 23.1 / 24.3

So that's -6.2, -18.4, -9.7, -16.9 and -11.7.

That's a whole new level of atrocious. And that's WITH 66 dunks, which were 21.6% of his FGA.

Duuuuuuuude...

There's a world of difference between that travesty and your average rookie, especially one with limited overall offensive responsibility coming in as CMB will enjoy.

Lol no it's not.

Draymond's rookie averages:

58.6 / 17.6 / 20.8 / 29.0 / 20.9

Mogbo's rookie averages:

63.4 / 27.7 / 34.6 / 23.1 / 24.3

And are those league averages from all positions and years of experience? Including AS guards? Lol, why exactly is that the benchmark for a defensive first rookie forward?

Mogbo shouldn't be penalized for taking shots he was encouraged to take during a player development season.

[tsherkin]

Lol no it's not.

But actually, that's objectively atrocious. Shooting that poorly is horrible. Shooting as poorly as a 6'0 guard by the rim is DEFINITELY quite bad.

The other stuff, from 10+ feet, it's a little less worrisome because the usage was so low that the numbers are quite volatile, that's true enough, but we already knew he wasn't a shooter, so that's also fine.

Draymond's CAREER average numbers (note: not just rookie):

Mogbo shouldn't be penalized for taking shots he was encouraged to take during a player development season.

I mean, this isn't a viable position. No one's griefing him for not having range when we knew he didn't have range. Or for the roughly 40 shots he took beyond 10 feet in general. That's not a big deal.

Shooting that much worse than league average inside the RA, however, is quite bad, and that's not news. Shooting that poorly from 3-10 feet is also quite bad, even for a rookie.

These are inescapable truths of his rookie season. He took under 6 shots per game, and he appears to be making improvements this, but glossing over how poorly he shot as a rookie while getting assisted on over 70% of his looks isn't really a thing that's going to garner much traction.

[DreamTeam09]

Scoring Highlights November

Watch on YouTube

All Dunks

Watch on YouTube

Triple Double

Watch on YouTube

[djsunyc]

his touch and feel around the rim on offense was really bad. until he figures that out, his minutes will be capped. he does alot of other things well but if he can't finish around the basket, it will be tough to keep him out there when are trying to win games.

[PushDaRock]

Do you know how much wiggle room Mogbo needs to even become “bad” as an offensive player this year? Looks at his fg% by area last year

0-5ft: 57%
5-9ft: 28%
10-14ft: 33%
15-19ft: 29%
20-24ft: 28%
25-29ft: 20%

Do you know how bad those numbers are? Even his 57% at the rim is bad for a big.

You’re underestimating how bad Mogbo was last year and what type of leap it would take for him to even become “acceptable”. The bar for CMB to surpass him on offense is insanely low given what Mogbo did last year.

Of course those are horrific numbers as a whole but there's some good stuff buried in there. 73.2% from the line was a positive and at least shows some level of shooting touch and 66 dunks over less than 1300 mins gives him at least a path to eventually become efficient. There's probably also nowhere to go but up, he's starting from a place where his offensive game is so bad that he almost has to improve rather than regress.

My overall point was that I’d expect CMB to be able match whatever Mogbo’s improvement is this year. Significant improvement from Mogbo would still put him in “below average” range. Mogbo has nowhere to go but up as a scorer.

I like Mogbo and think he has potential but I expect CMB to be better overall this upcoming season.

I'm only saying we aren't looking at a Reggie Evans situation here where it's hopeless that he ever gets better offensively.

I just don't read that much into rookie struggles. Many rookies suck when it comes to efficiency and it's a bigger adjustment for some than others getting used to NBA size and athleticism. He played against lesser competition but he was extremely efficient as a college player, so it's not like he's struggled to be efficient at every level he's played at. The projection for him was that he would be efficient at the next level eventually at least and it's why the metrics loved him. I think his offensive game was much worse than expected his rookie year but now he has a year under his belt now and knows what he needs to work on, I am expecting at least some improvement and wouldn't be too surprised if he takes a big jump in his efficiency.

[MoneyBall]

Lol no it's not.

But actually, that's objectively atrocious. Shooting that poorly is horrible. Shooting as poorly as a 6'0 guard by the rim is DEFINITELY quite bad.

The other stuff, from 10+ feet, it's a little less worrisome because the usage was so low that the numbers are quite volatile, that's true enough, but we already knew he wasn't a shooter, so that's also fine.

Draymond's CAREER average numbers (note: not just rookie):

Mogbo shouldn't be penalized for taking shots he was encouraged to take during a player development season.

I mean, this isn't a viable position. No one's griefing him for not having range when we knew he didn't have range. Or for the roughly 40 shots he took beyond 10 feet in general. That's not a big deal.

Shooting that much worse than league average inside the RA, however, is quite bad, and that's not news. Shooting that poorly from 3-10 feet is also quite bad, even for a rookie.

These are inescapable truths of his rookie season. He took under 6 shots per game, and he appears to be making improvements this, but glossing over how poorly he shot as a rookie while getting assisted on over 70% of his looks isn't really a thing that's going to garner much traction.

I'm not glossing over anything, everyone acknowledges he was very bad on offense last season. That’s not the point.

I'm not going to repeat myself over and over again. Historically, defense first type guys *often* have very rough starts on the offensive end. Mogbo's wasn't unusually bad. Look at OG's shooting percentages within 10 feet in his first 3 years... it's like a carbon copy of Mogbo's numbers.

All I'm saying is if CMB puts up similar bad numbers on offense, but is a monster on defense, I'm not going to consider his first season and utter disappointment. How is that unreasonable?

[MoneyBall]

Draymond was *worse*. Siakam was *worse*. OG as a sophomore was in the same tier as rookie Mogbo.

We're not comparing CMB to rookie Mogbo, we're comparing CMB to sophomore Mogbo. You're not giving any wiggle room for even the possibility of Mogbo improving over last season.

The fact that Mogbo played on a garbage team is actually an argument in defense of him, not against him. Players generally produce better when they are surrounded by really good and complimentary players, which obviously wasn't the case for him last season.

By your own admission, CMB had similar offensive production to Mogbo in college. Many of CMB flaws on offense overlap with Mogbo's. Even if CMB is slightly better on offense, will he be able to match or surpass Mogbo as the third best defensive player on the team? That's a tall task for him to accomplish as a 20 year old.

Do you know how much wiggle room Mogbo needs to even become “bad” as an offensive player this year? Looks at his fg% by area last year

0-5ft: 57%
5-9ft: 28%
10-14ft: 33%
15-19ft: 29%
20-24ft: 28%
25-29ft: 20%

Do you know how bad those numbers are? Even his 57% at the rim is bad for a big.

You’re underestimating how bad Mogbo was last year and what type of leap it would take for him to even become “acceptable”. The bar for CMB to surpass him on offense is insanely low given what Mogbo did last year.

Of course those are horrific numbers as a whole but there's some good stuff buried in there. 73.2% from the line was a positive and at least shows some level of shooting touch and 66 dunks over less than 1300 mins gives him at least a path to eventually become efficient. There's probably also nowhere to go but up, he's starting from a place where his offensive game is so bad that he almost has to improve rather than regress.

There's also more to offense than just shooting percentages. Mogbo's AST% of 15.3 is reeeally good for a player his type. Draymond didn’t reach that until year three, and he played with Curry and Thomson. Siakam didn't get there until his 4th season. Poeltl, OG, Amir never averaged that in a season.

[tsherkin]

All I'm saying is if CMB puts up similar bad numbers on offense, but is a monster on defense, I'm not going to consider his first season and utter disappointment. How is that unreasonable?

That isn't something I said, so I don't know why you would post that in response to me. I agree with you that he has some struggles on offense but has his defense in order, it wouldn't be a huge disappointment. I don't think we should be expecting big things from him in year one. I suspect, however, that he will be a more competent finisher than Mogbo as a rookie. Low bar, but I think he's already better at those basic things, especially when he's largely being spoon-fed the ball.

[Tripod]

All I'm saying is if CMB puts up similar bad numbers on offense, but is a monster on defense, I'm not going to consider his first season and utter disappointment. How is that unreasonable?

That isn't something I said, so I don't know why you would post that in response to me. I agree with you that he has some struggles on offense but has his defense in order, it wouldn't be a huge disappointment. I don't think we should be expecting big things from him in year one. I suspect, however, that he will be a more competent finisher than Mogbo as a rookie. Low bar, but I think he's already better at those basic things, especially when he's largely being spoon-fed the ball.

Plus, you can put up similar numbers but "look" completely different.

In SL, CMB looked like he has great touch around the basket but has to get used to others speed in defending him.

Mogbo looks like every shot attempt inside is a brick attempt with no touch at all.

And Mogbo got his numbers on a tram sitting multiple starters regularly and playing youth way more than originally expected. CMB is going a team now playing for wins every night and added BI to the top of the depth chart.

Big difference

[tsherkin]

Plus, you can put up similar numbers but "look" completely different.

In SL, CMB looked like he has great touch around the basket but has to get used to others speed in defending him.

Mogbo looks like every shot attempt inside is a brick attempt with no touch at all.

And Mogbo got his numbers on a tram sitting multiple starters regularly and playing youth way more than originally expected. CMB is going a team now playing for wins every night and added BI to the top of the depth chart.

Big difference

There is also that, for sure.

But anyway. Mogbo looks a little better in SL this year. We'll see what he looks like in the preseason, and then in the actual season. Maybe the improvement will translate. It's common enough for guys to be overwhelmed as rookies and look a lot better their second season, that's true enough.

Mogbo was 6'6.25" and 217 lbs at the combine, with a 7'2 wingspan and 9'0.5" standing reach. 31.5 / 37.5 standing/max vert.

CMG was 6'6.5" and 239 lbs, with a 7'0.75" wingspan and 8'10 standing reach. 29.5 / 34.5 standing/max vert.

Mogbo's a little longer, a little more athletic, but he's considerably lighter. When we're speaking of finishing inside, I think that and CMB's experience playing against bigger dudes will help him a little more as a rookie than Mogbo's tools, as well.

[HiJiNX]

A lot of Mogbo’s scoring issues had to do with lack of confidence and the NBA being too fast for him. Once he started to calm down he got better. I expect there to be continued improvement around the rim. Let’s see where he is in a couple years of NBA experience and professional off-season training.

[PushDaRock]

Plus, you can put up similar numbers but "look" completely different.

In SL, CMB looked like he has great touch around the basket but has to get used to others speed in defending him.

Mogbo looks like every shot attempt inside is a brick attempt with no touch at all.

And Mogbo got his numbers on a tram sitting multiple starters regularly and playing youth way more than originally expected. CMB is going a team now playing for wins every night and added BI to the top of the depth chart.

Big difference

There is also that, for sure.

But anyway. Mogbo looks a little better in SL this year. We'll see what he looks like in the preseason, and then in the actual season. Maybe the improvement will translate. It's common enough for guys to be overwhelmed as rookies and look a lot better their second season, that's true enough.

Mogbo was 6'6.25" and 217 lbs at the combine, with a 7'2 wingspan and 9'0.5" standing reach. 31.5 / 37.5 standing/max vert.

CMG was 6'6.5" and 239 lbs, with a 7'0.75" wingspan and 8'10 standing reach. 29.5 / 34.5 standing/max vert.

Mogbo's a little longer, a little more athletic, but he's considerably lighter. When we're speaking of finishing inside, I think that and CMB's experience playing against bigger dudes will help him a little more as a rookie than Mogbo's tools, as well.

I think the game slowing down will help Mogbo significantly. In college, he scored a lot of his points by being more athletic and powering through guys right at the rim never relying on his scoring touch. It was a big adjustment for him to not be able to do that in the pros and he didn't really have much else to go to. His finishing looked better in the summer league and I would be shocked if he doesn't improve upon his 50 TS% this season.

There's also a small 13 game sample size in the G League where he put up a 68.3 TS%. So, at least at a level just below the NBA, he was extremely efficient in a limited sample size.

I would say the tricky thing becomes fit and opportunity. You have 3 fairly similar player types in Scottie, CMB and Mogbo. If everyone is healthy, I'm not sure how much opportunity he gets and it's up in the air whether they can be effective out on the floor playing with each other.

[MoneyBall]

All I'm saying is if CMB puts up similar bad numbers on offense, but is a monster on defense, I'm not going to consider his first season and utter disappointment. How is that unreasonable?

That isn't something I said, so I don't know why you would post that in response to me. I agree with you that he has some struggles on offense but has his defense in order, it wouldn't be a huge disappointment. I don't think we should be expecting big things from him in year one. I suspect, however, that he will be a more competent finisher than Mogbo as a rookie. Low bar, but I think he's already better at those basic things, especially when he's largely being spoon-fed the ball.

Alright, that's fair.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Numbers wise, he’s already old enough to not expect much growth, so he’s factored out of the rotation. Yes he was on the radar, but he’s drafted to keep Scottie happy. Sucks that raps punted an asset for that, but despite not taking Filipowski, I’m happy with Shead - at least we got a guy I think can be of positive “on court” contributions. Truly, unhappy locker rooms don’t play as well generally, so it’s not even that off court considerations are all that removed from on court stuff - if it overall keeps the game play elevated.

[Stromile12]

Need him doing the Mikan drill all summer.

[tsherkin]

I would say the tricky thing becomes fit and opportunity. You have 3 fairly similar player types in Scottie, CMB and Mogbo. If everyone is healthy, I'm not sure how much opportunity he gets and it's up in the air whether they can be effective out on the floor playing with each other.

Yes, that will be a challenge. In theory, they're all multi-position players who can sneak in opportunity anywhere from the 3 to the 5, but we'll find out the practical reality of that soon enough. Scottie should be our starting 4, which should sort him, but Mogbo and CMB will be struggling to find their time, especially if Mamu shows us anything worth keeping him in regular minutes at the 5.