2025 Playoff Chase & Standings Watch

[pingpongrac]

There's no doubt we're luck merchants. We've won 3 games by one run this week where we were decidedly the worse team for the duration of each of those games.

Embrace it, it doesn't get any better than that.

Why does it matter if we were "the worse team for the duration of the game" if we win in the end? Also, what are you basing being "the worse team" off of? We had less hits/base runners against the Cubs (not by a wide margin as it was quite the pitcher's duel) then had more hits/base runners against the Rangers last night yet we were lucky in your mind. Seems like you just enjoy finding ways to try to diminish what the Jays have done this season.

[Randle McMurphy]

There's no doubt we're luck merchants. We've won 3 games by one run this week where we were decidedly the worse team for the duration of each of those games.

Embrace it, it doesn't get any better than that.

Why does it matter if we were "the worse team for the duration of the game" if we win in the end? Also, what are you basing being "the worse team" off of? We had less hits/base runners against the Cubs (not by a wide margin as it was quite the pitcher's duel) then had more hits/base runners against the Rangers last night yet we were lucky in your mind. Seems like you just enjoy finding ways to try to diminish what the Jays have done this season.

It doesn’t matter at all in the grand scheme of things but it is what happened and there’s no sense in trying to deny it. Those were 3 of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in baseball and they all happened in one week.

And diminishing? On the contrary, I’d say enjoy every bit of it. This kind of luck is something to savour in baseball. It doesn’t come around very often.

[pingpongrac]

There's no doubt we're luck merchants. We've won 3 games by one run this week where we were decidedly the worse team for the duration of each of those games.

Embrace it, it doesn't get any better than that.

Why does it matter if we were "the worse team for the duration of the game" if we win in the end? Also, what are you basing being "the worse team" off of? We had less hits/base runners against the Cubs (not by a wide margin as it was quite the pitcher's duel) then had more hits/base runners against the Rangers last night yet we were lucky in your mind. Seems like you just enjoy finding ways to try to diminish what the Jays have done this season.

It doesn’t matter at all in the grand scheme of things but it is what happened and there’s no sense in trying to deny it. Those were 3 of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in baseball and they all happened in one week.

And diminishing? On the contrary, I’d say enjoy every bit of it. This kind of luck is something to savour in baseball. It doesn’t come around very often.

Again, why do you think they were all lucky wins? What constitutes a lucky win to you? Is it any game where you aren't leading from the 1st inning? Is it any game where you take the lead beyond a certain inning? Is it any game where you get a clutch hit late to take the lead?

Not sure why you're exaggerating our "luck" and saying those are the 3 luckiest wins you'll see in baseball when you see games like that all around the league almost every single day lol. I mean just last night the Brewers won a game that they trailed 8-1 early by hitting a few homeruns and scoring a couple of runs on errors and a wild pitch while their bullpen completely stifled the Reds for the final 21 outs.

[Randle McMurphy]

Why does it matter if we were "the worse team for the duration of the game" if we win in the end? Also, what are you basing being "the worse team" off of? We had less hits/base runners against the Cubs (not by a wide margin as it was quite the pitcher's duel) then had more hits/base runners against the Rangers last night yet we were lucky in your mind. Seems like you just enjoy finding ways to try to diminish what the Jays have done this season.

It doesn’t matter at all in the grand scheme of things but it is what happened and there’s no sense in trying to deny it. Those were 3 of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in baseball and they all happened in one week.

And diminishing? On the contrary, I’d say enjoy every bit of it. This kind of luck is something to savour in baseball. It doesn’t come around very often.

Again, why do you think they were all lucky wins? What constitutes a lucky win to you? Is it any game where you aren't leading from the 1st inning? Is it any game where you take the lead beyond a certain inning? Is it any game where you get a clutch hit late to take the lead?

Not sure why you're exaggerating our "luck" and saying those are the 3 luckiest wins you'll see in baseball when you see games like that all around the league almost every single day lol. I mean just last night the Brewers won a game that they trailed 8-1 early by hitting a few homeruns and scoring a couple of runs on errors and a wild pitch while their bullpen completely stifled the Reds for the final 21 outs.

Because I watched the games and am familiar with how baseball regularly statistically goes.

One of them ended with the team’s lowest leverage RP Mason Fluharty against Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts the bases loaded after our closer walked 6 games in a third of an inning.

Another involved getting completely dominated by Matthew Boyd all game only for Vlad to bail the team out on a single swing on a 0-2 pitch at the very end.

And the final one involved a 4 run comeback in the 8th after Jake DeGrom similarly destroyed the team for a majority of the game.

Any team would be incredibly lucky to have even one of those outcomes go their way given how those games played out, let alone all three of them and all within the duration of one week. It was crazy unlikely.

And that isn’t even getting into the studies on one run win records statistically not being very predictive at all. There’s really no evidence that pulling out close games is a sustainable skill despite the fact that this version of the team appears to be very good at it.

Oh, I think there’s an argument the 2025 Jays are one of the luckiest teams I’ve ever seen and I hope it continues all the way to October.

[pingpongrac]

It doesn’t matter at all in the grand scheme of things but it is what happened and there’s no sense in trying to deny it. Those were 3 of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in baseball and they all happened in one week.

And diminishing? On the contrary, I’d say enjoy every bit of it. This kind of luck is something to savour in baseball. It doesn’t come around very often.

Again, why do you think they were all lucky wins? What constitutes a lucky win to you? Is it any game where you aren't leading from the 1st inning? Is it any game where you take the lead beyond a certain inning? Is it any game where you get a clutch hit late to take the lead?

Not sure why you're exaggerating our "luck" and saying those are the 3 luckiest wins you'll see in baseball when you see games like that all around the league almost every single day lol. I mean just last night the Brewers won a game that they trailed 8-1 early by hitting a few homeruns and scoring a couple of runs on errors and a wild pitch while their bullpen completely stifled the Reds for the final 21 outs.

Because I watched the games and am familiar with how baseball regularly statistically goes.

One of them ended with the team’s lowest leverage RP Mason Fluharty against Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts the bases loaded after our closer walked 6 games in a third of an inning.

Another involved getting completely dominated by Matthew Boyd all game only for Vlad to bail the team out on a single swing on a 0-2 pitch at the very end.

And the final one involved a 4 run comeback in the 8th after Jake DeGrom similarly destroyed the team for a majority of the game.

Any team would be incredibly lucky to have even one of those outcomes go their way given how those games played out, let alone all three of them and all within the duration of one week. It was crazy unlikely.

And that isn’t even getting into the studies on one run win records statistically not being very predictive at all. There’s really no evidence that pulling out close games is a sustainable skill despite the fact that this version of the team appears to be very good at it.

Oh, I think there’s an argument the 2025 Jays are one of the luckiest teams I’ve ever seen and I hope it continues all the way to October.

So you're just going to ignore that our closer – who had allowed 11 total walks in 47+ innings prior to the meltdown – allowing 5 walks in 2/3 of an inning is incredibly unlucky? Similarly, while you're praising Boyd for dominating the Jays all game, you're ignoring that Scherzer also pitched a very good game against the Cubs who could only muster 6 base runners in his 7 innings of work. DeGrom was shutting us out...through his 5 innings of work. And then we went to work against a Rangers bullpen that has imploded numerous times over the past few weeks.

21-14 is obviously a good record in 1-run games, but that is barely one of the top 5 records in the league when it comes to 1-run games; Detroit (70%), Milwaukee (64%), Houston (64%) and Seattle (62%) have been even better than us while San Diego (60%) and LAA (59%) have similar effectiveness in close games. You're acting like our record is inflated by 1-run games when we have won at a nearly identical pace in the other 89 games.

[Randle McMurphy]

So you're just going to ignore that our closer – who had allowed 11 total walks in 47+ innings prior to the meltdown – allowing 5 walks in 2/3 of an inning is incredibly unlucky?

I’m the one who brought up in that very game thread that Hoffman had been great since June, yes, despite many protesting that. What that has to do with him being atrocious in that game, I’m not sure. And no, walking 5 guys out of 6 batters isn’t bad luck. It’s terrible pitching and the Jays were ridiculously lucky to overcome that given the situation he left them in.

Similarly, while you're praising Boyd for dominating the Jays all game, you're ignoring that Scherzer also pitched a very good game against the Cubs who could only muster 6 base runners in his 7 innings of work.

Not ignoring Scherzer at all but he was nowhere near as good as Boyd was in any respect in that game and had some batted ball luck go his way. The Jays basically didn’t hit Boyd hard at all for that entire game except for one swing. They were fortunate that one hard hit ball was enough to win that game.

DeGrom was shutting us out...through his 5 innings of work. And then we went to work against a Rangers bullpen that has imploded numerous times over the past few weeks.

True but 4 run comebacks like that in that late innings are incredibly unlikely against even the worst of bullpens. And yet that was probably the least unlikely of the three.

21-14 is obviously a good record in 1-run games, but that is barely one of the top 5 records in the league when it comes to 1-run games; Detroit (70%), Milwaukee (64%), Houston (64%) and Seattle (62%) have been even better than us while San Diego (60%) and LAA (59%) have similar effectiveness in close games. You're acting like our record is inflated by 1-run games when we have won at a nearly identical pace in the other 89 games.

Inflated? Nah, it is simply what it is. The 2025 Jays have thrived in close games all season long. Is it sustainable going forward and for seasons on end? Probably not but it’s hardly unprecedented in baseball for teams to do this. Far worse teams than the Jays have won titles exactly the same way.

[G-Mac]

I can’t help but think of the old quote, “luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” In a way they have been lucky, the run differential, the comebacks, etc., but I think they are so well prepared this year they are making their own luck. They are a cohesive team, they seem to have vastly improved approaches at the plate, they have no quit in them, and the attitude is contagious.

Love watching them play this year.

[Randle McMurphy]

Orioles just played the end of that game incredibly stupidly.

[Parataxis]

DeGrom was shutting us out...through his 5 innings of work. And then we went to work against a Rangers bullpen that has imploded numerous times over the past few weeks.

True but 4 run comebacks like that in that late innings are incredibly unlikely against even the worst of bullpens. And yet that was probably the least unlikely of the three.

Unlikely and unlucky aren't the same thing though. If they ended up having a bunch of xAVG .100 plays that turned into multibaggers, that would be more indicative of luck (or bad fielding on the other team's part). What was their xOBA differential in those games, do you know?

Orioles just played the end of that game incredibly stupidly.

Oh my gosh, it was spectacubad. First the boneheaded throw to first instead of second, and then going to second instead of taking the force at home.

Just awful.

[Randle McMurphy]

DeGrom was shutting us out...through his 5 innings of work. And then we went to work against a Rangers bullpen that has imploded numerous times over the past few weeks.

True but 4 run comebacks like that in that late innings are incredibly unlikely against even the worst of bullpens. And yet that was probably the least unlikely of the three.

Unlikely and unlucky aren't the same thing though. If they ended up having a bunch of xAVG .100 plays that turned into multibaggers, that would be more indicative of luck (or bad fielding on the other team's part). What was their xOBA differential in those games, do you know?

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Oh my gosh, it was spectacubad. First the boneheaded throw to first instead of second, and then going to second instead of taking the force at home.

Just awful.

The pitcher was due up next as well. Just unfathomably stupid.

[Tripod]

Stupid StLouis

[Randle McMurphy]

Yankees making their charge and have an easy schedule the rest of the way

They are our true competition

[SharoneWright]

Never ever rely on the Orioles

[Randle McMurphy]

Baltimore collapsing to Boston but it is still looking like the Yankees are the real issue

[Tripod]

Baltimore kills us even when we don't play them.

[vaff87]

Detroit beat Houston and passed us by half a game, but that means we’re 4.5 games clear of Houston for that first round bye.

[Randle McMurphy]

Baltimore does the job but the Yankees have 7 HRs in 3 innings

They’re rising

[SharoneWright]

Detroit beat Houston and passed us by half a game, but that means we’re 4.5 games clear of Houston for that first round bye.

More than fine with that… Could you imagine a 401 ALCS between Detroit and Toronto? The whole region would be buzzing and the fan crossover would be seriously out of control.

[Parataxis]

Baltimore collapsing to Boston but it is still looking like the Yankees are the real issue

I do love Boston's ability to load the bases in three straight innings, and yet still not be able to overcome a two run deficit.

You love to see it.

[Randle McMurphy]

Baltimore collapsing to Boston but it is still looking like the Yankees are the real issue

I do love Boston's ability to load the bases in three straight innings, and yet still not be able to overcome a two run deficit.

You love to see it.

That was one of the more crushing losses you’ll ever see and I only watched 3 innings