Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[Red Larrivee]

I'm completely on board with playing hardball with Giddey. Force his ass the take the QO if needed. He had a nice little run towards the end of the season but he just has too many question marks. Him being a complete sieve defensively is one of the biggest in my opinion. The guy will be getting hunted on defense.

I don't want the Bulls going above 25m for the first year. 20m would be ideal.

That would be the worst outcome.

The worst outcome is overpaying Giddey and him underperforming and becoming a bad contract. If the Bulls give him 30m AAV and he regresses to his typical level of play, it would be awful.

I really don't know how anyone is still talking about 30M when the Bulls are clearly not going to offer it and there's a one team market.

Giddey signing the QO is not what anyone should want given the realistic and probable outcomes that are available.

[Infinity2152]

There are a ton of star players who play off ball a lot. Even perimeter players, like Klay Thompson, any perimeter player who uses screens a lot and like catch and shoots. Zach doesn't do that. Assuming your top player is a perimeter player anyway. Have to assume Wemby will be off ball a lot, Embid, etc.

Klay Thompson isn't a superstar. Agree that Giddey's best complement would be a superstar big man.

I would suspect Drexler's numbers and effectiveness would look hugely different if they were playing him at PF at 20 because Jordan's at SG, lol. And if he joined the team at 18 with Jordan playing his same position.

Fundamentally a different argument, I said having Drexler on the team wouldn't draw double teams on to Jordan because they weren't worried about Clyde scoring. Not sure it would have been a big problem to play them both at 2 and 3, but kind of irrelevant.

SGA / Giddey aren't sized in some way you can't play them both on the floor. If you're saying simply that Giddey can't play next to a ball dominant guard that is my point exactly. It's hard to find tier 1 players who will not be ball dominant, but as noted above, best case is probably a PF / C. What made them not work wasn't about positions, it was about SGA having the ball and Giddey not having the ball.

Again, though, not a deal breaker for me, not at this pricetag. Also, there is the chance that Giddey becomes a much better three point shooter with time, and a lot of these concerns go away.

I said stars, not superstars. Pretty hard to argue 4X champion, 5X All Star Klay Thompson isn't a star.

The Drexler argument is not a different argument. Giddey literally played at PF his last year in OKC at 20, with an AllStar in his chosen position. Not sure Giddey's number wouldn't have looked better with a true PF and center on the team and he was allowed to play guard or SF at least, we'll never know. Not worried about Clyde Drexler scoring? All Star Drexler, with 5 straight season over 20 pts, a couple at 27? He was compared to Jordan a lot at the time, Jordan hated it.

Just think it's s disservice to Giddey not to account for his team fit difficulties. It's like they felt he was too good to come off the bench and forced him to play out of position. Their team was/is so small overall and all good shooters, kind of magnifies his weaknesses. At a pretty young age, moved from SG to SF to PF in three years. His counting stats might look worse, but i think his efficiency would look a ton better as the backup to SGA and backup SG to get his minutes, even if it was the same amount of minutes.

We're on the same page that Giddey would have difficulty with a 1A who's ball dominant. Thing is, we haven't had a real 1A since Derrick Rose imo, and we have no idea who or when one is coming. Will it be a PF/C? Could be, then Giddey might be the perfect to feed him. Why i wouldn't worry about his fit with a 1A at this point. Cross that bridge if/when we ever come to it. Giddey might be gone by that time, lmao!

And honestly, I think if we're getting a 1A PG or SG back in a trade, Giddey is likely the centerpiece we're sending out.

[dougthonus]

I said stars, not superstars. Pretty hard to argue 4X champion, 5X All Star Klay Thompson isn't a star.

That's fine, but different topic from what I was discussing, and I find this topic less relevant. You aren't going to win anything with two Klay Thompson level star players and Giddey. I was discussing where Giddey fits on a title contender.

The Drexler argument is not a different argument. Giddey literally played at PF his last year in OKC at 20, with an AllStar in his chosen position. Not sure Giddey's number wouldn't have looked better with a true PF and center on the team and he was allowed to play guard or SF at least, we'll never know. Not worried about Clyde Drexler scoring? All Star Drexler, with 5 straight season over 20 pts, a couple at 27? He was compared to Jordan a lot at the time, Jordan hated it.

You seem to be missing my point and discussing something else. Clyde and Jordan on the same team wouldn't have made Jordan's life harder. Clyde may not have maximized Jordan, but he wouldn't have detracted from the team's success or Jordan's success. Giddey weaknesses actively made SGA's life harder. The positional thing is kind of 'meh' argument. Giddey was bringing the ball up like a PG most of the time, then gave the ball to SGA because he's awesome, then couldn't do anything off the ball. They hid Giddey on the worst offensive player when he was on defense. The position thing is a red herring.

We're on the same page that Giddey would have difficulty with a 1A who's ball dominant. Thing is, we haven't had a real 1A since Derrick Rose imo, and we have no idea who or when one is coming. Will it be a PF/C? Could be, then Giddey might be the perfect to feed him. Why i wouldn't worry about his fit with a 1A at this point. Cross that bridge if/when we ever come to it. Giddey might be gone by that time, lmao!

I agree. I've said this several times. It really isn't that important of a factor. However, it IS a problem when trying to build a great team. It's okay to acknowledge that Giddey causes some problems because his weaknesses are challenging work around, but also know that it probably isn't that big a factor for where we are or relative to the price he likely will command.

Probably the bigger choice (and I'll say choice not problem) is that it can feel like the Bulls are committing to mediocrity with their current path. I get why people would rather chase draft assets and higher upside alternatives. I have very low hopes for it having much upside, but we let too many assets die on the vine vs pushing them forward for future picks to really attack the draft now.

[Infinity2152]

I said stars, not superstars. Pretty hard to argue 4X champion, 5X All Star Klay Thompson isn't a star.

That's fine, but you changed the topic then, and I find this topic less relevant. You aren't going to win anything with two Klay Thompson level star players and Giddey. I was discussing where Giddey fits on a title contender.

The Drexler argument is not a different argument. Giddey literally played at PF his last year in OKC at 20, with an AllStar in his chosen position. Not sure Giddey's number wouldn't have looked better with a true PF and center on the team and he was allowed to play guard or SF at least, we'll never know. Not worried about Clyde Drexler scoring? All Star Drexler, with 5 straight season over 20 pts, a couple at 27? He was compared to Jordan a lot at the time, Jordan hated it.

You seem to be missing my point and discussing something else. Clyde and Jordan on the same team wouldn't have made Jordan's life harder. Clyde may not have maximized Jordan, but he wouldn't have detracted from the team's success or Jordan's success. Giddey weaknesses actively made SGA's life harder. The positional thing is kind of 'meh' argument. Giddey was bringing the ball up like a PG most of the time, then gave the ball to SGA because he's awesome, then couldn't do anything off the ball. They hid Giddey on the worst offensive player when he was on defense. The position thing is a red herring.

We're on the same page that Giddey would have difficulty with a 1A who's ball dominant. Thing is, we haven't had a real 1A since Derrick Rose imo, and we have no idea who or when one is coming. Will it be a PF/C? Could be, then Giddey might be the perfect to feed him. Why i wouldn't worry about his fit with a 1A at this point. Cross that bridge if/when we ever come to it. Giddey might be gone by that time, lmao!

I mean I literally said this in the start of the discussion that it isn't a big problem now because we're unlikely to get such a player and you started fighting with me over it, so okay...

Bro, it's all good. You said elite perimeter players not 1A's, so I equated that to stars not superstars. You might not win with two Klay Thompsons', but could have a chance with Giddey, prime Klay Thompson and Embid or Durant. Not trying to fight, thought we were having a discussion. Appreciating you posting the data from the Athletic, actually wanted to see it.

Thought the argument was how playing with Jordan would have affected Drexler's stats and progression, not the other way around. I'm looking at Giddey's situation vs Drexler, not Jordan vs SGA. Think we're looking at two different pictures. I think since we're calling each other arguments "meh", less relevant, "I'm missing your point" and I'm starting a fight by debating I thought very calmly, I'll end my side of the debate. You can have it.

Like I said we're on the same page at the end about the ball dominant 1A. Would not do that in a fight

[dougthonus]

Bro, it's all good. You said elite perimeter players not 1A's, so I equated that to stars not superstars. You might not win with two Klay Thompsons', but could have a chance with Giddey, prime Klay Thompson and Embid or Durant. Not trying to fight, thought we were having a discussion. Appreciating you posting the data from the Athletic, actually wanted to see it.

Thought the argument was how playing with Jordan would have affected Drexler's stats and progression, not the other way around. I'm looking at Giddey's situation vs Drexler, not Jordan vs SGA. Think we're looking at two different pictures. I think since we're calling each other arguments "meh", less relevant, "I'm missing your point" and I'm starting a fight by debating I thought very calmly, I'll end my side of the debate. You can have it.

Like I said we're on the same page at the end about the ball dominant 1A. Would not do that in a fight

Haha, FWIW, I edited my post to tone down the rhetoric.

I'm not worried about Giddey's stats one way or the other. He could be really effective with lower stats, and I would be happy. I'm only concerned with how he fits into a team. Again though, feels like we're ending at a 3-4 year deal around 25M. None of this matters at that price (or really even a few mil over that price) or with our current roster.

If these issues become issues in reality, we'll be counting our blessings for having landed an elite player.

[Stratmaster]

The Athletic reported that the max that teams who have zero cap space would give him is $25 mill AAV? Which teams said that, exactly? Why would their opinions even matter if they have absolutely no ability to bid on him? The only offer I've seen with a $25 mill salary year one is the flat 5yr/$125 mill. Not one where his contract increases.

Yes, the Athletic interviewed reps from 16 teams and said the average view those teams thought his value was was ~23M a year and the peak was 25M AAV, and the floor was 12.5M AAV. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6519192/2025/07/28/josh-giddey-nba-free-agency-bulls/

Fourteen of the 16 participants proposed an average annual salary between $20 million and $25 million. (His mean average yearly value in the poll came to $22.3 million a year.) One executive pinned him as an $18 million player. Another, a front-office staffer who admitted he would be far lower than the consensus because he wasn’t a fan of Giddey’s game, suggested $50 million over four years, $12.5 million a year — less than the midlevel exception for a player who put up 14.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists in 2024-25 and who averaged nearly a 20-point triple-double over his final 19 games.

The majority of those polled agreed that Giddey was worth a commitment. Seven of the 16 participants proposed four-year deals for him: one for $50 million, one for $80 million, one for $88 million and four for $100 million.

Three more respondents suggested five-year contracts: one for $112.5 million, one for $115 million and the largest one (both in money and average annual value) for $125 million.

Think the starting at 4yrs/$80 mill was the childish game. For some reason, people saying the Bulls should offer him more is the same as people saying they shouldn't negotiate. Haven't seen a single person in here saying they shouldn't negotiate.

The Bulls offer is much closer to the median value that GMs see him at than Giddey's request is. I don't view either side as childish, it's just negotiation, but the Bulls are 2.3M off the average, Giddey is 6.7M off the average, both are 5M off the peak. The peak is probably a better representation of FMV, so using that number, both sides are equally "childish".

Haven't seen anywhere a team wouldn't offer him $28 mill if they could

Well just quoted an article showing you that 100% of the 16 teams contacted wouldn't offer him that much money, so now you have.

Ironically, even though I'm by reputation a peak Josh Giddey hater, my offer to Josh would match the highest offer of any team the Athletic interviewed.

Wait. A "front office staffer" admitted he was talking BS and yet they included his ridiculous12.5 mil a year in the calculations? What kind of reporting did that lol.

[Infinity2152]

Bro, it's all good. You said elite perimeter players not 1A's, so I equated that to stars not superstars. You might not win with two Klay Thompsons', but could have a chance with Giddey, prime Klay Thompson and Embid or Durant. Not trying to fight, thought we were having a discussion. Appreciating you posting the data from the Athletic, actually wanted to see it.

Thought the argument was how playing with Jordan would have affected Drexler's stats and progression, not the other way around. I'm looking at Giddey's situation vs Drexler, not Jordan vs SGA. Think we're looking at two different pictures. I think since we're calling each other arguments "meh", less relevant, "I'm missing your point" and I'm starting a fight by debating I thought very calmly, I'll end my side of the debate. You can have it.

Like I said we're on the same page at the end about the ball dominant 1A. Would not do that in a fight

Haha, FWIW, I edited my post to tone down the rhetoric.

I'm not worried about Giddey's stats one way or the other. He could be really effective with lower stats, and I would be happy. I'm only concerned with how he fits into a team. Again though, feels like we're ending at a 3-4 year deal around 25M. None of this matters at that price (or really even a few mil over that price) or with our current roster.

If these issues become issues in reality, we'll be counting our blessings for having landed an elite player.

100% agree. I do really, really really hope you're SEVERELY underestimating what Giddey will bring us the next 4-8 years,

You're a smart guy, I mean nothing personal in the back and forth. Like debating smart guys, but I guess it can get annoying. I hope we get a 1A in the next 2-3 years for Giddey's fit to even be a factor, that's a longer shot than if Giddey will be great, imo.

[dougthonus]

Wait. A "front office staffer" admitted he was talking BS and yet they included his ridiculous12.5 mil a year in the calculations? What kind of reporting did that lol.

No one said they were talking BS. They admitted their opinion would be an outlier because they don't like his game. That seems quite different than "BS". How credible you want to take the whole article is certainly up for debate. Who knows what motivations people had for their answers or who specifically in the orgs was being asked. That said, assuming the author didn't fabricate it, it's a much better data point than any other data points that exist.

[Axl Rose]

The question is do we make it to Josh Giddey Thread 3.0 before he is signed?

[nomorezorro]

i think we can get everyone to agree on his precise value if we spend 100 more pages having the same argument

[Stratmaster]

Wait. A "front office staffer" admitted he was talking BS and yet they included his ridiculous12.5 mil a year in the calculations? What kind of reporting did that lol.

No one said they were talking BS. They admitted their opinion would be an outlier because they don't like his game. That seems quite different than "BS". How credible you want to take the whole article is certainly up for debate. Who knows what motivations people had for their answers or who specifically in the orgs was being asked. That said, assuming the author didn't fabricate it, it's a much better data point than any other data points that exist.

It was either BS, or the guy was an idiot. Using an idiots opinion as part of the survey casts doubt on everyone involved. That's all I am saying. Take his number out of the calculation and it actually sounds like a pretty reasonable number was arrived at. 23-24 mil

[Stratmaster]

i think we can get everyone to agree on his precise value if we spend 100 more pages having the same argument

And yet, here you are.

[nomorezorro]

buddy i'm gonna be here for all 100 of those pages

[dougthonus]

It was either BS, or the guy was an idiot. Using an idiots opinion as part of the survey casts doubt on everyone involved. That's all I am saying. Take his number out of the calculation and it actually sounds like a pretty reasonable number was arrived at. 23-24 mil

Pretty wild take that having an outlier opinion makes you an idiot or that including an outlier opinion from someone in the market in an article about assessing market value removes your credibility.

[WesPeace]

I'm completely on board with playing hardball with Giddey. Force his ass the take the QO if needed. He had a nice little run towards the end of the season but he just has too many question marks. Him being a complete sieve defensively is one of the biggest in my opinion. The guy will be getting hunted on defense.

I don't want the Bulls going above 25m for the first year. 20m would be ideal.

That would be the worst outcome.

The worst outcome is overpaying Giddey and him underperforming and becoming a bad contract. If the Bulls give him 30m AAV and he regresses to his typical level of play, it would be awful.

.

25M per for promising 22yrs old triple double potential PG is overpay?? Oh boy..

[sco]

I'll go out on a limb and predict the deal gets done tomorrow. No facts or rumors...just me.

[DuckIII]

It was either BS, or the guy was an idiot. Using an idiots opinion as part of the survey casts doubt on everyone involved. That's all I am saying. Take his number out of the calculation and it actually sounds like a pretty reasonable number was arrived at. 23-24 mil

Pretty wild take that having an outlier opinion makes you an idiot or that including an outlier opinion from someone in the market in an article about assessing market value removes your credibility.

Some outlier opinions are certainly idiotic and choosing to include outlier idiocy in what purports to be an objective article does weaken credibility. Far from a “wild” take. Pretty reasonable observation when thinking about something critically and determining how much value to give its conclusions.

[dougthonus]

Some outlier opinions are certainly idiotic and choosing to include outlier idiocy in what purports to be an objective article does weaken credibility. Far from a “wild” take. Pretty reasonable observation when thinking about something critically and determining how much value to give its conclusions.

Ignoring this particular case, outlier data can be very important to consider and often reveals something useful to avoid group think. In terms of both largest risks and largest opportunities, it is outlier data that often reveals these things. That data shouldn't ever be hidden, but should be reviewed in context correctly.

In this particular case, I think the above was done correctly. It was pointed out as an outlier and the emphasis in the conclusion was on the commonality in both dollars and deal length.

The thought that someone loses integrity by presenting the actual data in a balanced way is pretty abhorrent to me and seems like a trend that has become quite popular today.

[Stratmaster]

It was either BS, or the guy was an idiot. Using an idiots opinion as part of the survey casts doubt on everyone involved. That's all I am saying. Take his number out of the calculation and it actually sounds like a pretty reasonable number was arrived at. 23-24 mil

Pretty wild take that having an outlier opinion makes you an idiot or that including an outlier opinion from someone in the market in an article about assessing market value removes your credibility.

12.5 mil isn't an "outlier opinion". It's idiocy. It's either plain stupidity, ignorance, or trolling. It's why they throw the top and bottom numbers out in a pool that small because they know any idiot can sway the results. It is pretty wild that you won't call "stupid" stupid.

[Stratmaster]

Some outlier opinions are certainly idiotic and choosing to include outlier idiocy in what purports to be an objective article does weaken credibility. Far from a “wild” take. Pretty reasonable observation when thinking about something critically and determining how much value to give its conclusions.

Ignoring this particular case, outlier data can be very important to consider and often reveals something useful to avoid group think. In terms of both largest risks and largest opportunities, it is outlier data that often reveals these things. That data shouldn't ever be hidden, but should be reviewed in context correctly.

In this particular case, I think the above was done correctly. It was pointed out as an outlier and the emphasis in the conclusion was on the commonality in both dollars and deal length.

The thought that someone loses integrity by presenting the actual data in a balanced way is pretty abhorrent to me and seems like a trend that has become quite popular today.

Wow. That's what you're going with? This isn't data. It's opinions. And we are talking averages of numbers here.

I guess if I poll 5 people on what the temperature is outside, 4 people say it is 85 degrees and 1 person says it is 42 degrees, I should keep the 42 degrees in my calculations and conclude that the temperature is 76 degrees? Even though I know that is impossible?

You seem to be debating just for the sake of debating.

Is there any world any reasonable person believes Giddey's next contract will be 4/50?