Infinity2152 wrote:MGB8 wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:
Giddey wanted $30 mill dollars when he arrived. He's better in almost every area than when he got here. You all keep making the mistake of not trying to see it from his view. The contract he signs will be based on what HE believes and knows right now. How smart it is for him to take that contract will be based on that. Not your beliefs. It's very arrogant to believe your opinion of what he would get in 2026 is more accurate than his own. I'm quite sure he's far more vested and has far more data and sources to come to his conclusions.
I don't have to worry about the risk that Giddey doesn't play well. GIDDEY believes at the level he was when he joined the Bulls, he was worth $30 mill. How bad a season would he have to have to think he won't be worth that after another year of growth? You're trying to predict what could happen next year. In Giddey's mind, his numbers from his last season with the Thunder should get him considered for $30 mill. Possibly.
When you say he showed average player last year, bro! Come on. there are 450 players in the league. He's putting up 20 pt close to triple doubles regularly and that's like the 225th best player in the league.
He didn't have a hot streak. He's started for 4 years. Since 18. On a very good team. He didn't just get good. he's played 279 NBA games. Improved every year. All the criticisms fly in the face of the fact that a better team than ours started him every game, and then we did too. Clearly he's a starting level NBA PG, or both coaches are just stupid, and their scouts who have seen him 279 games plus years of practices still don't have enough data to estimate his potential.
Natural slowing with age. For a 22 year old. He's likely to improve physically for the next 3-4 years, lmao!
Shroeder and Noel, lmao! Noel was benched by his third year. Schroder didn't get to start until year 4. He got a 4yr/$70 mill rookie extension.
The comparisons to Pat Will are hilarious. What is similar about them at all? Skill set, drive, approach to the game, eye test, what? What did Patrick Williams ever show to make anyone even think he might be worth that contract? Giddey's improved every year, did Pat?
How would he be foolish to take the QO when he could possibly make far more money with longer term security. If he gets better (like most 22 year olds) and gets far more money, he was still foolish for believing in himself? That's all based on your doom and gloom predictions coming true. None of them are very likely. So if in 2026 he gets at an extra $30-50 million overall taking the QO, he was stupid for getting it. Right.
That was a ton of words spent ignoring the argument.
Bottom line, if Giddey takes the QO, he may play worse without a career ending injury - and cost himself 10s of millions of dollars.
Further, even if he doesn't play worse than last season, if he doesn't progress, the optimism / upside on him will be seen as diminished, and his market value likely would not be improved - he would not hit 30 M. He would be viewed as more a "is he what he is" type player with serious flaws to their game.
It doesn't matter what Giddey thinks - these are real risks and he would be a giant fool to take the QO over, Sat, 3 years 70 million.
What do you think is the argument? How do you think you get to call him a fool for taking a risk you wouldn't? I dare you to post what you think the likelihood of him having that critical injury actually is, using any statistics you want. How likely are these real risks? Do you not drive because there's a risk you might be in an accident? Higher probability than Giddey having a career ending injury next year.
To be a fool, he would have to think those risks are high like you apparently do and still take the risk. He's not a GIANT FOOL for taking a minimal risk. It definitely matters what he thinks if you're calling him a fool, lmao!! Your view of his decision is based on entirely different assumptions, that you have absolutely no idea if they are true or not. It's all "what if" everything goes wrong, or something improbable happens.
His market value doesn't have to improve for him to end up with more guaranteed money. He's a restricted free agent and no teams have cash, he's automatically signing below market value. With probably less guaranteed years. More guaranteed years at his current market value, which looks like the consensus is $25 mill, yields him more guaranteed money in just a year than a 3yr/22.5 mill AAV contract. He'd lose like 11 mill taking the QO, he needs like an extra $2.5 mill AAV on a 4yr contract to make that up ($25 mill), but would be protected against all those weird things, complete regression, total injury etc for four years. You do realize all those things could happen in 2026 or 2027 and not 2025, right? When he would have already signed a 4 year contract with the team of his choice for the same money or likely more, but now he gets paid for 2028, 2029 regardless of injury.
Also, the fact that there will be 10-15 teams able to bid on him rather than zero might SLIGHTLY increase what he gets in 2026, maybe? Since there will be actual competition and no really good free agents available? Plus a 7% larger salary cap?
lots of strawmen there. Lots of work to unpack
First, plenty of players don't improve after their rookie contracts end. They are what they are by year 4. This season will be key for Giddey in showing if he is like that, or still likely to improve. Far from a guarantee - but if he doesn't perception on him, and valuation - will decline. "Hope" factor would take a severe hit.
Second, critical injury risk isn't the issue. Any sort of mid level injury can cause shooting percentages to materially decline. And, of course, so can non-injury factors - bad shooting years. Ayo wasn't shooting well before injury - injury aggravated it. But outside of last year, he went from 38% from 3 as a rook to 31% on the same volume in year 2. Vuc went to 40% during the trade year, then down to 31, up to 35, down to 29, then last year to 40.
Guys who are consistently with a sort of 3% band (like Coby) are likely more exception than norm.
Giddey is accurately perceived as a weak shooter. A second season of above average percentage, even if it does not create gravity, would help. But a season of decline would, otoh, significantly hurt - in that he had been trending upwards and that would kill that trend
Third, IMO there is about a 50/50 chance that Giddey's overall stat picture at the end of the coming season looks the same or worse than last year's total picture.
Risk of an injury that negatively impacts performance enough to lower stats season long is probably in the vicinity of 15-20% or so. I ran a query on how many NBA players are expected to miss at least 10 games due to injury per season and got back "about 200" - over 1/3 of players who are playing enough to even qualify for that kind of search. And that is almost certainly low. Only about 100 players played over 72 games last year: ~2/3 of players who play meaningful amounts of games missed at least 10 games. Of the 335 or so who played over 41 games, only about 200 played 62 or more.
Point being, NBA players get hurt, a lot.
But it isn't just that, Giddey himself has seen year over year stat declines already. He went from about 16.5 pts, 8 rb, 6 apg in year 2 to 12.5 , 6.5, 5 in year 3. Minutes change explains about half the difference. Year 4 was in between year 2 and 3 in scoring, similar to year 2 in boards, 1 assist better than year 2. Minutes on par with year 2.
4th, as for cap space, there were several teams that could have made a 30 M offer if they wanted to for Giddey. Brooklyn very easily, others if they made relatively mild moves. This has been discussed. If he had big value, chances are that with Bulls reluctance, someone would have made big offer.
More $ next year might of course means greater chance of a bigger offer - but that is only if he is valued. And if his shooting declines, defense looks bad, numbers don't improve on the whole - what team is going to pay to have a terrible defending, not efficient, hurts team unless ball is in his hand 14-16 PPG player? What team is going to take the ball out of a better scoring player's hands to pay 30+ M per year to Giddey? NONE.
The 30 M+ upside is solely based on him continuing to trend up.
You take that as a far more likely than not prospect - but it really isn't. Not just due to injury . But because Giddey doesn't have more untapped potential just based on athleticism and may have already maximized his skills via a via his athleticism. You add in that his best stats to push up last year's came against a cream puff part of the schedule - bad teams, tankers, hurt teams - and even ignoring injury risks, you can't be over-confident of improvement. Add in injury risk and getting to around 50/50.
