The Vegas Line: 2025-26 Team Wins

[floppymoose]

GSW is at 45.5. - take the under

Which is the complete opposite of last year. I'm on a bit of a tear on GSW line, though. I've been on the right side since 2021-22.

[floppymoose]

other teams:

LAL 48.5 - under
ORL 50.5 - under
SAS 43.5 - over
DET 45.5 - over
DAL 40.5 - over (i dont feel super confident on this one)

[vvoland]

GSW is at 45.5. - take the under
DAL is at 40.5. - i dont feel super confident on this one but if i have to pick, i take the over.

Which is the complete opposite of last year. I'm on a bit of a tear on GSW line, though. I've been on the right side since 2021-22.

You've been down on the team this offseason. I wouldn't take either side of that bet until the JK/Horford/Melton situation is resolved. IF all 3 are back, I'll take the over. They were on a 63 win pace last year with jimmy in the last 30 games. Sure, easy schedule and they played like it was the playoffs. That said, if we add Horford and Melton while keeping everyone but GP2 and Loon, I don't see us losing more games that we did last season. It's possible, health and all, but I don't think it's likely enough to bet even money. Are we really 3 games worse than last season?

If I was to bet on the under, I'd try to find an alt-under that gives me the "health/age" downside with some decent odds. Probably do something similar with the clips.

I'll def take the under on the Lakers. Can't believe people think Lebron will just be find for 82 games playing 2nd fiddle and that Ayton, somehow, is a positive addition. I would be hammering that under, if I was a betting man.

Orl is in the east so.. 50 wins might not be that hard. Not sure I'd want to bet on SAS with their weird guard rotation, lack of shooting, and Wemby's health. Def don't want that under, though.

Det is also in the east but 46 wins for the over is tough. Are they two games better than last year?

p.s. we hit that under once since 21-22, in the title defense year, where poole was actively sabotaging games and dray had yet to go to therapy. Even in the murderous west, we had 46 and 48 wins the last two years and were in the play-in, both times.

[EvanZ]

I feel like the over is a fairly safe bet actually. Under would be quite a disaster though.

[ChuckDurn]

Yeah, I actually made some small bets before last season started….. wish I had placed more money on them, as I did end up in the money.

The best I made (all were the same amount):
GSW over the win total => win
PHI under the win total => win
CHA under the win total => win
MIA over the win total => lose
MIN over the win total => lose

OKC, 3-1 odds to win the Western Conference => win
MIN, 5-1 odds to win the Western Conference => lose.

(As you can imagine, when it was OKC vs. MIN in the WCF, I felt pretty good about those picks.)

This year, I’d definitely take the “over” for the Warriors, whether Kuminga is back or not. The only way they don’t hit that total, IMO, is if Curry gets hurt for a protracted period of time. Which is a real risk, of course.

[HiRez]

It doesn't make sense to guess until you know what the roster is. Key parts still up in the air. Not to mention health being an outsized risk for a team with older best players.

[Old_Blue]

I feel like the over is a fairly safe bet actually. Under would be quite a disaster though.

Agreed. I would take the bet, except for the fact that I typically hate bets that don't pay off until the end of the season. Boring. They lack any of the thrill of a single game or series bet. That said, if I see something like a +2500 bet to win it all for a team I've got a sneaky feeling about...

[Onus]

Hard to make a bet on a team that only has 9 roster spots filled out. Our win total will absolutely be dependent on health.

Based on what we know that Horford and Melton are to sign, I'd take the over though

[vvoland]

other teams:

LAL 48.5 - under
ORL 50.5 - under
SAS 43.5 - over
DET 45.5 - over
DAL 40.5 - over (i dont feel super confident on this one)

If Luka really comes into the season looking like Rambo, first blood, I might need to reconsider my lal under.

[Onus]

other teams:

LAL 48.5 - under
ORL 50.5 - under
SAS 43.5 - over
DET 45.5 - over
DAL 40.5 - over (i dont feel super confident on this one)

If Luka really comes into the season looking like Rambo, first blood, I might need to reconsider my lal under.

I really don’t see how it’s good value to take lal under. Ayton is better than Jaxson Hayes in every way possible. Smart is better than Gabe Vincent. Those 2 were huge parts in their rotation and they got an upgrade. They will be around that number.

[vvoland]

other teams:

LAL 48.5 - under
ORL 50.5 - under
SAS 43.5 - over
DET 45.5 - over
DAL 40.5 - over (i dont feel super confident on this one)

If Luka really comes into the season looking like Rambo, first blood, I might need to reconsider my lal under.

I really don’t see how it’s good value to take lal under. Ayton is better than Jaxson Hayes in every way possible. Smart is better than Gabe Vincent. Those 2 were huge parts in their rotation and they got an upgrade. They will be around that number.

If luka is still fat luka, I like the under.

Surprised to hear you like Ayton. To me, he's the ultimate empty calorie player that cares 0 about winning actual games. Is he much more talented than Hayes? Yes. Will he help the Lakers win more games? I don't think so. Will JJ earn himself a felony trying to coach Dominayton? Amost certainly. Lebron is already subtweeting about '26 and the '25 season hasn't even started yet. Is he really going to fall in line as the #2?


Smart played 54 games last 2 seasons. He's not getting healthier. I would have been much more concerned if they used that money to keep DFS.

[Onus]

If Luka really comes into the season looking like Rambo, first blood, I might need to reconsider my lal under.

I really don’t see how it’s good value to take lal under. Ayton is better than Jaxson Hayes in every way possible. Smart is better than Gabe Vincent. Those 2 were huge parts in their rotation and they got an upgrade. They will be around that number.

If luka is still fat luka, I like the under.

Surprised to hear you like Ayton. To me, he's the ultimate empty calorie player that cares 0 about winning actual games. Is he much more talented than Hayes? Yes. Will he help the Lakers win more games? I don't think so. Will JJ earn himself a felony trying to coach Dominayton? Amost certainly. Lebron is already subtweeting about '26 and the '25 season hasn't even started yet. Is he really going to fall in line as the #2?


Smart played 54 games last 2 seasons. He's not getting healthier. I would have been much more concerned if they used that money to keep DFS.

Surprised to hear you like Jaxson Hayes

[vvoland]

I really don’t see how it’s good value to take lal under. Ayton is better than Jaxson Hayes in every way possible. Smart is better than Gabe Vincent. Those 2 were huge parts in their rotation and they got an upgrade. They will be around that number.

If luka is still fat luka, I like the under.

Surprised to hear you like Ayton. To me, he's the ultimate empty calorie player that cares 0 about winning actual games. Is he much more talented than Hayes? Yes. Will he help the Lakers win more games? I don't think so. Will JJ earn himself a felony trying to coach Dominayton? Amost certainly. Lebron is already subtweeting about '26 and the '25 season hasn't even started yet. Is he really going to fall in line as the #2?


Smart played 54 games last 2 seasons. He's not getting healthier. I would have been much more concerned if they used that money to keep DFS.

Surprised to hear you like Jaxson Hayes

I said nothing of the sort. I just don't think he's a player a team relies on and expects him to lead him to wins. It certainly seems like a number of folks are banking on Ayton playing hard/well at the 5 for LA. I'm not one of them, that's all.

[Onus]

If luka is still fat luka, I like the under.

Surprised to hear you like Ayton. To me, he's the ultimate empty calorie player that cares 0 about winning actual games. Is he much more talented than Hayes? Yes. Will he help the Lakers win more games? I don't think so. Will JJ earn himself a felony trying to coach Dominayton? Amost certainly. Lebron is already subtweeting about '26 and the '25 season hasn't even started yet. Is he really going to fall in line as the #2?


Smart played 54 games last 2 seasons. He's not getting healthier. I would have been much more concerned if they used that money to keep DFS.

Surprised to hear you like Jaxson Hayes

I said nothing of the sort. I just don't think he's a player a team relies on and expects him to lead him to wins. It certainly seems like a number of folks are banking on Ayton playing hard/well at the 5 for LA. I'm not one of them, that's all.

So who is better disinterested ayton or hayes?

[vvoland]

Surprised to hear you like Jaxson Hayes

I said nothing of the sort. I just don't think he's a player a team relies on and expects him to lead him to wins. It certainly seems like a number of folks are banking on Ayton playing hard/well at the 5 for LA. I'm not one of them, that's all.

So who is better disinterested ayton or hayes?

Probably ayton but it's fool's gold. He's just good enough to help you lose a ton of games while feeling like you don't need a starting center. If they got looney, with all the offense and shooting they got, I would feel much worse about taking the under than I do with Ayton. If they got loon and bruce brown, I'd take the over. Ayton and Smart? it won't matter if luka really is chiseled, now.

[DonaldSanders]

I'd take the over, but I was much more confident about us winning 50 games before FA started and the West got even harder. What was a tough conference got even tougher -- Spurs, Denver, Rockets, Clippers all got noticeably better. Obviously we could have a big injury and go way under, but I'll take the over. I'm just not as confident in 50 anymore given how much the conference has improved. 48 seems like a better bet.

[KevinMcreynolds]

Indiana under 46.5 seems like easy money

[HiRez]

I'm not predicting anything until the roster is set but I'm probably taking the under on everything for the Dubs. If they start a lineup of Steph, Buddy, Jimmy, Draymond, and Horford, as another poster in the Horford rumor thread pointed out, the average age will be 36. With an iffy bench to fall back on, and going up against a slew of lineups around the league loaded with 25 year old studs every night who are no longer clueless rookies. Yes, experience counts, but that's going to catch up with you over 82 games.

[Nvnervous45]

Heild isn't starting. It's Podz, or my favorite, if he's at full health, Melton.