Josh Giddey 3.0

[Stratmaster]

I don't know why that matters. I'm saying I'd pay him that for two years to avoid him playing on the QO. The extent to which I'd be happy to under-pay him would be irrelevant to this analysis. I.e., it would be much more important to me, as GM, to keep him for two more years than it would be rigidly stick with the lower number and risk losing him outright. At the end of the day I'd "overpay" for it at that number so long as it was for no more than 2 years (or with a team option in case he earns it).

Yeah, if I can't get Giddey for at least 3 years, I'd rather chase the draft. I'd probably pivot to S&T if he has real other suitors. If he doesn't have real other suitors, then it also probably pressures him back into my deal, but we aren't going to accomplish anything with Giddey in the next two years regardless, so I'd either want him here as a firmer part of the direction or not at all.

And to the extent it matters, is it really doesn't matter. You just said you think Giddey is closer to his reasonable market value. I said that based on the numbers we have they are exactly equidistant from what we best know (which may not be very good) is his reasonable market value rather than Giddey is being more reasonable. They appear to be equally and oppositely reasonable right now, which also is likely by design from both sides.

The equidistant argument is a great negotiating approach if the initial offers are both reasonable and in good faith. It doesn't cut it for me here.

There are 157 players who will make over 10 mil this season. In theory, at least for the sake of argument, lets assume that 150 of those are the NBA starters. Keep in mind that there are players starting who are still on their rookie contracts, or negotiated their contract 3 or 4 seasons ago. The top salary this season is, I believe around 60 million. Also keep in mind that is expected to be over 70 million next season.

Again, for the sake of this exercise, in theory, etc... the Bulls are offering Giddey 10 mil more than the worst starting players in the league. Giddey is asking for for up 30 million less than the best. He is asking for the 61st highest salary in the league, and after one season it will likely be more like the 70th or 75th best.Who do you think is making the more reasonable offer?

We can pretty much assume that by starting at 30 mil, Giddey and his agent were expecting to settle in the 26-28 mil range.

If you think Giddey will be closer to being one of the worst starters in the league than he will be a 28 mil player, then the initial offers were equally in good faith.

If a car is on the sales lot for 30k, I can start at 20k and then say "let's split the difference". It isn't going to happen. They aren't going to slash their price 17%. My offer wasn't realistic. Had I started at 25k, and then said "lets split the difference" I might have a chance at getting it for $27,500.

I still think the "fair" number is 27mil. The Bulls will likely get him for that "equidistant" 25 mil number, and that is fine. But in my mind all the puffery about "AKME has finally learned to negotiate" is misplaced. The negotiations shouldn't have gone like this. It should have been simple and quick to arrive at a number in the 25-27 mil range. The Bulls will likely end up saving a couple mil for putting their player through this exercise. I don't think it was worth it.

[jnrjr79]

The difference in views on Giddey is that some people see what he did once Lavine left and said "boy, given his past that seems like a fluke." And others said "wow, look what happened once we gave him the ball and started playing Giddey's style of basketball."

I'm in the latter camp. To me there was a clear and immediate shift, and the game logs back up my memory. That's why I'd pay him $30 mil a year on a short deal with a team option rather than see him take the QO. Its also why if I were Josh Giddey I'd tell the Bulls to take a 4-5 year $20 mil AAV and shove it right up the brown eye.

If we get Giddey on a 4 year deal at something like $23 mil AAV, I predict it will be one of the best contracts in the NBA within 2 years.

So, I think I'm a little in between those two views. On the one hand, I think it does show what kind of player Giddey can be if you hand him the keys and have a team that fits pretty well with his style (excluding perhaps Vooch). But it also shows, perhaps, that Giddey requires a pretty specific supporting cast to be effective. Assuming you don't view Giddey as a #1 player on a contending team, I think it potentially raises concerns about whether the tail could be wagging the dog at some point.

Two things:

1. He'd definitely a guy who requires a pretty specific roster (I wouldn't say "supporting cast" really because I don't see him being a franchise player) in order to maximize his abilities as a PG while accounting for his weaknesses. Agree 100%. I think I wrote about that as a concern in the "conundrum" thread. Its a downside, but one with workarounds.

2. He didn't have a team built around his strengths and weaknesses. He just had what was left after trading Lavine, and what we got back. None of which was designed around Giddey's game. "Designed around Giddey's game" is drafting Noa Essengue. It's the first time we did that. The second time was trading for Okoro. The third time hasn't happened yet. We've been in this era for about 5 months. And despite that he still immediately went into ridiculous production mode as soon as Lavine (not a hater) left and we stopped playing walk it up half court basketball. That to me is not tail wagging the dog. It's a player showing what he can do in a role even without teammates ideally suited to the task.

On point 2, I largely agree, and probably should have said something like "more suited for his game." Huerter, Collins, and Jones were all somewhat better fits than Zach. But yes, the team still really isn't quite ideal around him - they can play fast, but you're still missing a mobile rim protector, and I'm not sure Coby is a great fit long-term next to him unless you have plus defenders at every other position on the floor.

I think Okoro and Essengue are potential good fits with him - they certainly should be defensively. But I think you're going to need real shooting threats as well, depending on how much Giddeh can maintain a solid % and also become something more than "he can hit them when he's wide open."

[jnrjr79]

Well, the quotes I posted after that post were from the last 48 hours. And if the sources are correct, the Bears have been refusing those offers because they have no intention of letting Giddey go. So they certainly could decide to entertain those offers. It would mean the front office once again screwed up and completely failed with their approach to contract negotiations.

Sure, the point I'm making is the deadline to accept the QO is 10/1. There's no reason for Giddey to sign it before then, even if he's written off the Bulls, because even in that scenario, he'd prefer some other team free up cap space or do a S&T, presumably. So the Bulls could still say "we don't want to trade him" for the next few weeks and reverse course if that changes.

The risk is that Giddey signs the QO early and they're screwed, but it isn't in Giddey's interest to do that.

The other risk is the teams who expressed interest have moved on, made other moves, and are no longer interested or able to make an offer.

I suppose, but I doubt that's a reasonably likely scenario.

[jnrjr79]

I don't know why that matters. I'm saying I'd pay him that for two years to avoid him playing on the QO. The extent to which I'd be happy to under-pay him would be irrelevant to this analysis. I.e., it would be much more important to me, as GM, to keep him for two more years than it would be rigidly stick with the lower number and risk losing him outright. At the end of the day I'd "overpay" for it at that number so long as it was for no more than 2 years (or with a team option in case he earns it).

Yeah, if I can't get Giddey for at least 3 years, I'd rather chase the draft. I'd probably pivot to S&T if he has real other suitors. If he doesn't have real other suitors, then it also probably pressures him back into my deal, but we aren't going to accomplish anything with Giddey in the next two years regardless, so I'd either want him here as a firmer part of the direction or not at all.

And to the extent it matters, is it really doesn't matter. You just said you think Giddey is closer to his reasonable market value. I said that based on the numbers we have they are exactly equidistant from what we best know (which may not be very good) is his reasonable market value rather than Giddey is being more reasonable. They appear to be equally and oppositely reasonable right now, which also is likely by design from both sides.

The equidistant argument is a great negotiating approach if the initial offers are both reasonable and in good faith. It doesn't cut it for me here.

There are 157 players who will make over 10 mil this season. In theory, at least for the sake of argument, lets assume that 150 of those are the NBA starters. Keep in mind that there are players starting who are still on their rookie contracts, or negotiated their contract 3 or 4 seasons ago. The top salary this season is, I believe around 60 million. Also keep in mind that is expected to be over 70 million next season.

Again, for the sake of this exercise, in theory, etc... the Bulls are offering Giddey 10 mil more than the worst starting players in the league. Giddey is asking for for up 30 million less than the best. He is asking for the 61st highest salary in the league, and after one season it will likely be more like the 70th or 75th best.Who do you think is making the more reasonable offer?

We can pretty much assume that by starting at 30 mil, Giddey and his agent were expecting to settle in the 26-28 mil range.

If you think Giddey will be closer to being one of the worst starters in the league than he will be a 28 mil player, then the initial offers were equally in good faith.

If a car is on the sales lot for 30k, I can start at 20k and then say "let's split the difference". It isn't going to happen. They aren't going to slash their price 17%. My offer wasn't realistic. Had I started at 25k, and then said "lets split the difference" I might have a chance at getting it for $27,500.

I still think the "fair" number is 27mil. The Bulls will likely get him for that "equidistant" 25 mil number, and that is fine. But in my mind all the puffery about "AKME has finally learned to negotiate" is misplaced. The negotiations shouldn't have gone like this. It should have been simple and quick to arrive at a number in the 25-27 mil range. The Bulls will likely end up saving a couple mil for putting their player through this exercise. I don't think it was worth it.

I think the bolded part is absolutely true. But I just disagree that both opening positions weren't in good faith, and that seems bolstered by The Athletic's survey of front office personnel, who all pegged him at $25 million or below. We've talked before about how those numbers may be a bit low b/c they are front office numbers and don't include the player/agent side, but I think the fact that the 2 sides are halfway between the highest number the disinterested front office personnel put on the board demonstrates good faith.

[DuckIII]

The equidistant argument is a great negotiating approach if the initial offers are both reasonable and in good faith. It doesn't cut it for me here.

There are 157 players who will make over 10 mil this season. In theory, at least for the sake of argument, lets assume that 150 of those are the NBA starters. Keep in mind that there are players starting who are still on their rookie contracts, or negotiated their contract 3 or 4 seasons ago. The top salary this season is, I believe around 60 million. Also keep in mind that is expected to be over 70 million next season.

Again, for the sake of this exercise, in theory, etc... the Bulls are offering Giddey 10 mil more than the worst starting players in the league. Giddey is asking for for up 30 million less than the best. He is asking for the 61st highest salary in the league, and after one season it will likely be more like the 70th or 75th best.Who do you think is making the more reasonable offer?

I agree with this view. We all spent a lot of time talking talking about what some anonymous front office employees said they considered fair for Giddey. But just look at the actual contracts out there, while as you note understanding that the numbers are changing so fast that in two years the 28th guy on the list will probably be 40th.

Right now, for the upcoming season, if Giddey took the $20 mil AAV the Bulls are offering him he would be 89th highest paid player in the league. If he took between 22-23 which is a number many of us are projecting, that puts him 81st. At $25 million he's tied with psychopath Miles Bridges for 74th. Its almost a certainty that no matter what happens, I subjectively will think we got a terrific deal for Giddey at any of these numbers.

When I wrote the "conundrum" thread one of my main points was that getting him when he would be going into free agency this summer would likely be problematic in assessing his value and could burn us. Now, looking at how he played, then looking at how the market is bending him over with no leverage, it appears the timing may have been a godsend. This might all work out brilliantly for Chicago if AK doesn't get too cute.

[jnrjr79]

The equidistant argument is a great negotiating approach if the initial offers are both reasonable and in good faith. It doesn't cut it for me here.

There are 157 players who will make over 10 mil this season. In theory, at least for the sake of argument, lets assume that 150 of those are the NBA starters. Keep in mind that there are players starting who are still on their rookie contracts, or negotiated their contract 3 or 4 seasons ago. The top salary this season is, I believe around 60 million. Also keep in mind that is expected to be over 70 million next season.

Again, for the sake of this exercise, in theory, etc... the Bulls are offering Giddey 10 mil more than the worst starting players in the league. Giddey is asking for for up 30 million less than the best. He is asking for the 61st highest salary in the league, and after one season it will likely be more like the 70th or 75th best.Who do you think is making the more reasonable offer?

I agree with this view. We all spent a lot of time talking talking about what some anonymous front office employees said they considered fair for Giddey. But just look at the actual contracts out there, while as you note understanding that the numbers are changing so fast that in two years the 28th guy on the list will probably be 40th.

Right now, for the upcoming season, if Giddey took the $20 mil AAV the Bulls are offering him he would be 89th highest paid player in the league. If he took between 22-23 which is a number many of us are projecting, that puts him 81st. At $25 million he's tied with psychopath Miles Bridges for 74th. Its almost a certainty that no matter what happens, I subjectively will think we got a terrific deal for Giddey at any of these numbers.

When I wrote the "conundrum" thread one of my main points was that getting him when he would be going into free agency this summer would likely be problematic in assessing his value and could burn us. Now, looking at how he played, then looking at how the market is bending him over with no leverage, it appears the timing may have been a godsend. This might all work out brilliantly for Chicago if AK doesn't get too cute.

Just to be a bit more fair, Fred Van Fleet also gets paid exactly $25M. Miles Turner gets paid $25.3M. DeMar DeRozan gets paid $24.5M. It's not just domestic abusers that get paid that!

If the argument is he's worth $30M, that's Randle/Porzingis/McCollum land.

$20M, which is what Strat said would be a bad faith offer, is what Cameron Johnson makes. Is Giddey an inarguably better player?

Giddey was traded heads-up for Caruso, who just inked a deal starting at $18M and appears to be about $20M AAV.

You can poke around and find lots of examples to make an argument on either side of it.

[dougthonus]

I still think the "fair" number is 27mil. The Bulls will likely get him for that "equidistant" 25 mil number, and that is fine. But in my mind all the puffery about "AKME has finally learned to negotiate" is misplaced. The negotiations shouldn't have gone like this. It should have been simple and quick to arrive at a number in the 25-27 mil range. The Bulls will likely end up saving a couple mil for putting their player through this exercise. I don't think it was worth it.

16 teams were surveyed and the peak offer was 25M. That feels like a better estimate of fair than trying to do comparisons to a player that literally doesn't have an even remotely comparable player to them in the league to me.

It also happens to be the number I said was fair prior to that data coming out, so I'm obviously biased. That said, despite my own bias, just unilaterally deciding his number is higher than the data point we have of 16/29 NBA teams weighing in with no other rumors to suggest his value as more doesn't seem like a reasonable approach to me.

As I noted, his agent is surely trying to see what other teams would pay him, and if the Warriors were like "We'd pay Josh 27M if the Bulls would negotiate." then that sure as heck would have been leaked to the press.

[sco]

How would folks feel about 3/$90 if the third year is a team option. This season doesn't matter because we're likely not doing much anyway. So really, we're committing to 1 further year at $30M, and then another, only if he's worth it. I think there's close to a 50/50 chance we don't pick-up the option, but that's what you're paying for is the option value of getting out from a mediocre player early...if he's a great player, then he's worth the 3rd year @ $30M.

[DuckIII]

The equidistant argument is a great negotiating approach if the initial offers are both reasonable and in good faith. It doesn't cut it for me here.

There are 157 players who will make over 10 mil this season. In theory, at least for the sake of argument, lets assume that 150 of those are the NBA starters. Keep in mind that there are players starting who are still on their rookie contracts, or negotiated their contract 3 or 4 seasons ago. The top salary this season is, I believe around 60 million. Also keep in mind that is expected to be over 70 million next season.

Again, for the sake of this exercise, in theory, etc... the Bulls are offering Giddey 10 mil more than the worst starting players in the league. Giddey is asking for for up 30 million less than the best. He is asking for the 61st highest salary in the league, and after one season it will likely be more like the 70th or 75th best.Who do you think is making the more reasonable offer?

I agree with this view. We all spent a lot of time talking talking about what some anonymous front office employees said they considered fair for Giddey. But just look at the actual contracts out there, while as you note understanding that the numbers are changing so fast that in two years the 28th guy on the list will probably be 40th.

Right now, for the upcoming season, if Giddey took the $20 mil AAV the Bulls are offering him he would be 89th highest paid player in the league. If he took between 22-23 which is a number many of us are projecting, that puts him 81st. At $25 million he's tied with psychopath Miles Bridges for 74th. Its almost a certainty that no matter what happens, I subjectively will think we got a terrific deal for Giddey at any of these numbers.

When I wrote the "conundrum" thread one of my main points was that getting him when he would be going into free agency this summer would likely be problematic in assessing his value and could burn us. Now, looking at how he played, then looking at how the market is bending him over with no leverage, it appears the timing may have been a godsend. This might all work out brilliantly for Chicago if AK doesn't get too cute.

Just to be a bit more fair, Fred Van Fleet also gets paid exactly $25M. Miles Turner gets paid $25.3M. DeMar DeRozan gets paid $24.5M. It's not just domestic abusers that get paid that!

If the argument is he's worth $30M, that's Randle/Porzingis/McCollum land.

$20M, which is what Strat said would be a bad faith offer, is what Cameron Johnson makes. Is Giddey an inarguably better player?

Giddey was traded heads-up for Caruso, who just inked a deal starting at $18M and appears to be about $20M AAV.

You can poke around and find lots of examples to make an argument on either side of it.

I wasn’t trying to do that. I only mentioned Bridges because it was an exact tie and I didn’t see FVV at that exact number. And because it allowed me to call him a psycho.

The point is the rankings. Which aren’t even accurate, as he will be ranked meaningfully lower than that over the life of these hypothetical deals. They are all fantastic for Chicago. At this point, if we don’t blow it, it’s just a matter of degree.

[LateNight]

The equidistant argument is a great negotiating approach if the initial offers are both reasonable and in good faith. It doesn't cut it for me here.

I agree on the premise -but giddey’s ask is the unreasonable one.

[darbstar]

25 mil per season is extremely fair to both sides based on his young age (upside potential), production, and comparative market. Both sides meet in the middle. Just get this done already and move on!

[SalmonsSuperfan]

25 mil per season is extremely fair to both sides based on his young age (upside potential), production, and comparative market. Both sides meet in the middle. Just get this done already and move on!

What upside? He's been the same player for the last three years and there's nothing in his game that suggests he'll take a leap in his 5th season. He's a glue guy, a role player. Based on the salary figure, in what world is he twice as good as Coby White?

Furthermore, why should the Bulls negotiate against themselves? He's a restricted free agent. If a team was going to offer him a giant salary, they would've done it already. I don't think $25mil aav is a huge overpay, unlike Pat he is actually producing and it's probably worth matching, but does any team even have cap space left to offer him that contract? Are teams going to make trades to offload salary so they can sign Giddey? What would teams actually give up to the Bulls for a S&T and why haven't they already done so in the last 2 months?

I think he's probably taking the QO.

[Stratmaster]

Sure, the point I'm making is the deadline to accept the QO is 10/1. There's no reason for Giddey to sign it before then, even if he's written off the Bulls, because even in that scenario, he'd prefer some other team free up cap space or do a S&T, presumably. So the Bulls could still say "we don't want to trade him" for the next few weeks and reverse course if that changes.

The risk is that Giddey signs the QO early and they're screwed, but it isn't in Giddey's interest to do that.

The other risk is the teams who expressed interest have moved on, made other moves, and are no longer interested or able to make an offer.

I suppose, but I doubt that's a reasonably likely scenario.

Well... if you think they are all waiting around for Josh, then he is worth 28 mil

[jnrjr79]

25 mil per season is extremely fair to both sides based on his young age (upside potential), production, and comparative market. Both sides meet in the middle. Just get this done already and move on!

What upside? He's been the same player for the last three years and there's nothing in his game that suggests he'll take a leap in his 5th season. He's a glue guy, a role player. Based on the salary figure, in what world is he twice as good as Coby White?

Furthermore, why should the Bulls negotiate against themselves? He's a restricted free agent. If a team was going to offer him a giant salary, they would've done it already. I don't think $25mil aav is a huge overpay, unlike Pat he is actually producing and it's probably worth matching, but does any team even have cap space left to offer him that contract? Are teams going to make trades to offload salary so they can sign Giddey? What would teams actually give up to the Bulls for a S&T and why haven't they already done so in the last 2 months?

I think he's probably taking the QO.

The bolded seems like a silly question to me, given Coby White will certainly be getting more than $25M next year.

[Stratmaster]

The equidistant argument is a great negotiating approach if the initial offers are both reasonable and in good faith. It doesn't cut it for me here.

There are 157 players who will make over 10 mil this season. In theory, at least for the sake of argument, lets assume that 150 of those are the NBA starters. Keep in mind that there are players starting who are still on their rookie contracts, or negotiated their contract 3 or 4 seasons ago. The top salary this season is, I believe around 60 million. Also keep in mind that is expected to be over 70 million next season.

Again, for the sake of this exercise, in theory, etc... the Bulls are offering Giddey 10 mil more than the worst starting players in the league. Giddey is asking for for up 30 million less than the best. He is asking for the 61st highest salary in the league, and after one season it will likely be more like the 70th or 75th best.Who do you think is making the more reasonable offer?

I agree with this view. We all spent a lot of time talking talking about what some anonymous front office employees said they considered fair for Giddey. But just look at the actual contracts out there, while as you note understanding that the numbers are changing so fast that in two years the 28th guy on the list will probably be 40th.

Right now, for the upcoming season, if Giddey took the $20 mil AAV the Bulls are offering him he would be 89th highest paid player in the league. If he took between 22-23 which is a number many of us are projecting, that puts him 81st. At $25 million he's tied with psychopath Miles Bridges for 74th. Its almost a certainty that no matter what happens, I subjectively will think we got a terrific deal for Giddey at any of these numbers.

When I wrote the "conundrum" thread one of my main points was that getting him when he would be going into free agency this summer would likely be problematic in assessing his value and could burn us. Now, looking at how he played, then looking at how the market is bending him over with no leverage, it appears the timing may have been a godsend. This might all work out brilliantly for Chicago if AK doesn't get too cute.

Just to be a bit more fair, Fred Van Fleet also gets paid exactly $25M. Miles Turner gets paid $25.3M. DeMar DeRozan gets paid $24.5M. It's not just domestic abusers that get paid that!

If the argument is he's worth $30M, that's Randle/Porzingis/McCollum land.

$20M, which is what Strat said would be a bad faith offer, is what Cameron Johnson makes. Is Giddey an inarguably better player?

Giddey was traded heads-up for Caruso, who just inked a deal starting at $18M and appears to be about $20M AAV.

You can poke around and find lots of examples to make an argument on either side of it.

Cameron Johnson signed in 2023 for 23.5 AAV didn't he? And it included other incentives if Google is correct.

[jnrjr79]

I agree with this view. We all spent a lot of time talking talking about what some anonymous front office employees said they considered fair for Giddey. But just look at the actual contracts out there, while as you note understanding that the numbers are changing so fast that in two years the 28th guy on the list will probably be 40th.

Right now, for the upcoming season, if Giddey took the $20 mil AAV the Bulls are offering him he would be 89th highest paid player in the league. If he took between 22-23 which is a number many of us are projecting, that puts him 81st. At $25 million he's tied with psychopath Miles Bridges for 74th. Its almost a certainty that no matter what happens, I subjectively will think we got a terrific deal for Giddey at any of these numbers.

When I wrote the "conundrum" thread one of my main points was that getting him when he would be going into free agency this summer would likely be problematic in assessing his value and could burn us. Now, looking at how he played, then looking at how the market is bending him over with no leverage, it appears the timing may have been a godsend. This might all work out brilliantly for Chicago if AK doesn't get too cute.

Just to be a bit more fair, Fred Van Fleet also gets paid exactly $25M. Miles Turner gets paid $25.3M. DeMar DeRozan gets paid $24.5M. It's not just domestic abusers that get paid that!

If the argument is he's worth $30M, that's Randle/Porzingis/McCollum land.

$20M, which is what Strat said would be a bad faith offer, is what Cameron Johnson makes. Is Giddey an inarguably better player?

Giddey was traded heads-up for Caruso, who just inked a deal starting at $18M and appears to be about $20M AAV.

You can poke around and find lots of examples to make an argument on either side of it.

Cameron Johnson signed in 2023 for 23.5 AAV didn't he? And it included other incentives if Google is correct.

Whatever I was looking at yesterday had $20M. ESPN and spotrac have him at $21M next year. But it does look like he has a funny contract that declines in years 1-3 and then goes back up to $23M in 2026. In any event, his number does not hit $25M in any year of the deal.

[Stratmaster]

Just to be a bit more fair, Fred Van Fleet also gets paid exactly $25M. Miles Turner gets paid $25.3M. DeMar DeRozan gets paid $24.5M. It's not just domestic abusers that get paid that!

If the argument is he's worth $30M, that's Randle/Porzingis/McCollum land.

$20M, which is what Strat said would be a bad faith offer, is what Cameron Johnson makes. Is Giddey an inarguably better player?

Giddey was traded heads-up for Caruso, who just inked a deal starting at $18M and appears to be about $20M AAV.

You can poke around and find lots of examples to make an argument on either side of it.

Cameron Johnson signed in 2023 for 23.5 AAV didn't he? And it included other incentives if Google is correct.

Whatever I was looking at yesterday had $20M. ESPN and spotrac have him at $21M next year. But it does look like he has a funny contract that declines in years 1-3 and then goes back up to $23M in 2026. In any event, his number does not hit $25M in any year of the deal.

There are 18 million in incentives. It was signed in 2023. He is in the 3rd year. What was the salary cap in 2023 and what is it now? Take that percentage increase and multiply his 4/94 by it. Then add 18 mil in incentives (I don't know how much of them he has earned so far). Is Johnson inarguably as good a player?

[jnrjr79]

Cameron Johnson signed in 2023 for 23.5 AAV didn't he? And it included other incentives if Google is correct.

Whatever I was looking at yesterday had $20M. ESPN and spotrac have him at $21M next year. But it does look like he has a funny contract that declines in years 1-3 and then goes back up to $23M in 2026. In any event, his number does not hit $25M in any year of the deal.

There are 18 million in incentives. It was signed in 2023. He is in the 3rd year. What was the salary cap in 2023 and what is it now? Take that percentage increase and multiply his 4/94 by it. Then add 18 mil in incentives (I don't know how much of them he has earned so far). Is Johnson inarguably as good a player?

I would not factor in incentives unless we have some indication of whether they have been earned.

EDIT: he earned $0 of his available incentives in year 1 and $560K of them in year 2.

[Stratmaster]

Whatever I was looking at yesterday had $20M. ESPN and spotrac have him at $21M next year. But it does look like he has a funny contract that declines in years 1-3 and then goes back up to $23M in 2026. In any event, his number does not hit $25M in any year of the deal.

There are 18 million in incentives. It was signed in 2023. He is in the 3rd year. What was the salary cap in 2023 and what is it now? Take that percentage increase and multiply his 4/94 by it. Then add 18 mil in incentives (I don't know how much of them he has earned so far). Is Johnson inarguably as good a player?

I would not factor in incentives unless we have some indication of whether they have been earned.

EDIT: he earned $0 of his available incentives in year 1 and $560K of them in year 2.

He hasn't played more than 58 games in the last 3 seasons. Until last season he had done nothing of note. Giddey is clearly the better player. Johnson is the perfect argument for why Giddey is asking for 30 and deserves 27-28

[Stratmaster]

Whatever I was looking at yesterday had $20M. ESPN and spotrac have him at $21M next year. But it does look like he has a funny contract that declines in years 1-3 and then goes back up to $23M in 2026. In any event, his number does not hit $25M in any year of the deal.

There are 18 million in incentives. It was signed in 2023. He is in the 3rd year. What was the salary cap in 2023 and what is it now? Take that percentage increase and multiply his 4/94 by it. Then add 18 mil in incentives (I don't know how much of them he has earned so far). Is Johnson inarguably as good a player?

I would not factor in incentives unless we have some indication of whether they have been earned.

EDIT: he earned $0 of his available incentives in year 1 and $560K of them in year 2.

The cap has gone up 13% in the last 2 seasons, making the 4/94 Johnson got the equivalent of 4/106. Giddey is 22. Johnson is pushing 30 isn't he? Johnson doesn't rebounds or pass like Giddey. The more I look at Johnson, the more convinced I am the Bulls offer is ridiculous.