2018 redraft - who are the top 10

[One_and_Done]

If Booker can thrive next to CP3, he can thrive next to Luka or Shai (or Brunson).

[Doctor MJ]

If Booker can thrive next to CP3, he can thrive next to Luka or Shai (or Brunson).

Well,

1) Booker's a volume scorer, and Paul is a pass-first payer. The specific concern is about about pairing two volume shooters, which Luka, Shai & Brunson certainly are.

2) Booker is specifically a driver, which means he's not at his best as volume scorer when he's off-ball, and so even having a pass-first point guard next to him holds him back if that point guard dominates the ball enough.

I should note that when I talked about picking Shai first in my new re-draft, I talked about Olympic Booker, I don't think it was clear what I meant.

In a nutshell: Booker on the 2024 Olympic team operated a 2-way role player rather than a star, which I don't think is as valuable as having him be a volume scorer on a team where he's the best volume scorer, and so when I'm saying he'd do that with Shai, I'm saying I'd be looking to demote Booker if I had the chance to get Shai. Same for Luka to be clear, though I'd have to think more about Brunson.

To be clear with all of this, I'm saying that I think a Shai-Booker duo would be worse than the sum of their talents, and that is not what you'd hope for when looking to build around Booker, and thus a statement of deciding to build around Shai instead.

And while my current re-draft literally says that that's what the Suns should have done in 2018, so I don't think the idea of it is wrong, I do think that the Suns themselves truly believed for many years after 2018 that building around Booker was the right move.

We can knock them for it certainly, but more generally, I think franchises tend to think in this way, and when I make a re-draft, I'm trying to capture that

[One_and_Done]

The Suns may have had the view that Booker wouldn't work with Shai or Luka, but redrafting with hindsight (which is what this thread is about) that view was clearly wrong.

Not only has Booker shared the floor with CP3, who handles the ball alot even if he doesn't score as much, but he's shared it with KD who takes alot of shots also. We have also seen plenty of successful pairings of this sort, from Luka and Kyrie, to Harden and KD (and Irving). It would actually be a good thing if Booker went off ball more like he used to in fact. This isn't like Lebron & Wade, where their skillsets overlap but Wade is just a worse version who can't hit 3s. There is also plenty of ball to go around if both guys want to drive and handle alot, e.g. Luka and Kyrie. I don't see it as 'less than the sum of its parts'.

We also knew enough to know all this 2 years ago. I don't think it ever made sense to take JJJ over Luka, and by 2 years ago you could say the same about Shai.

[Doctor MJ]

The Suns may have had the view that Booker wouldn't work with Shai or Luka, but redrafting with hindsight (which is what this thread is about) that view was clearly wrong.

Not only has Booker shared the floor with CP3, who handles the ball alot even if he doesn't score as much, but he's shared it with KD who takes alot of shots also. We have also seen plenty of successful pairings of this sort, from Luka and Kyrie, to Harden and KD (and Irving). It would actually be a good thing if Booker went off ball more like he used to in fact. This isn't like Lebron & Wade, where their skillsets overlap but Wade is just a worse version who can't hit 3s. There is also plenty of ball to go around if both guys want to drive and handle alot, e.g. Luka and Kyrie. I don't see it as 'less than the sum of its parts'.

We also knew enough to know all this 2 years ago. I don't think it ever made sense to take JJJ over Luka, and by 2 years ago you could say the same about Shai.

In 2023, building around Booker had resulted in a finals appearance, a 60+ win team, and the ability to get Kevin Durant to force his way to the team, while the Mavs had just missed the play-in altogether. I'd say the Suns were pretty content at the time with how it all played out at that point. How confident I am? Well, considerably more comfortable than I am saying the same about Mavs management given what we know now.

Now in 2025, the Suns have had to blow up the super-team and are recognizing that they're now behind where they started - worse supporting cast around Booker and less future draft picks - and meanwhile there was an MVP level prospect in the 2018 draft who we just watched lead to the chip no Sun has ever been able to do, and he came with absolutely zero Luka-style baggage. No real debate at this point who #1 pick would be.

Re: also shared with KD. Dude, they just had to blow that up because they never synergized together. You're now literally looking at the Suns great chemistry failures around Booker to try to prove chemistry around Booker doesn't matter.

Re: plenty of ball to go around. In basketball, there is only one basketball on the basketball court while the basketball game is being played.

If the defense knows that when you have the ball they don't have to worry much about the other star, you're going to have diminishing returns.

[One_and_Done]

The Suns may have had the view that Booker wouldn't work with Shai or Luka, but redrafting with hindsight (which is what this thread is about) that view was clearly wrong.

Not only has Booker shared the floor with CP3, who handles the ball alot even if he doesn't score as much, but he's shared it with KD who takes alot of shots also. We have also seen plenty of successful pairings of this sort, from Luka and Kyrie, to Harden and KD (and Irving). It would actually be a good thing if Booker went off ball more like he used to in fact. This isn't like Lebron & Wade, where their skillsets overlap but Wade is just a worse version who can't hit 3s. There is also plenty of ball to go around if both guys want to drive and handle alot, e.g. Luka and Kyrie. I don't see it as 'less than the sum of its parts'.

We also knew enough to know all this 2 years ago. I don't think it ever made sense to take JJJ over Luka, and by 2 years ago you could say the same about Shai.

In 2023, building around Booker had resulted in a finals appearance, a 60+ win team, and the ability to get Kevin Durant to force his way to the team, while the Mavs had just missed the play-in altogether. I'd say the Suns were pretty content at the time with how it all played out at that point. How confident I am? Well, considerably more comfortable than I am saying the same about Mavs management given what we know now.

Now in 2025, the Suns have had to blow up the super-team and are recognizing that they're now behind where they started - worse supporting cast around Booker and less future draft picks - and meanwhile there was an MVP level prospect in the 2018 draft who we just watched lead to the chip no Sun has ever been able to do, and he came with absolutely zero Luka-style baggage. No real debate at this point who #1 pick would be.

Re: also shared with KD. Dude, they just had to blow that up because they never synergized together. You're now literally looking at the Suns great chemistry failures around Booker to try to prove chemistry around Booker doesn't matter.

Re: plenty of ball to go around. In basketball, there is only one basketball on the basketball court while the basketball game is being played.

If the defense knows that when you have the ball they don't have to worry much about the other star, you're going to have diminishing returns.

Firstly, despite being past his prime, the win-loss record still holds up well for KD's time with the Suns. From 23 to 25 the Suns were 85-60 with him, and 15-30 without him. The problem was not a lack of synergy between KD and Booker, the problem was Booker regressing, Beal not fitting in, and the rest of the roster being poorly designed around KD & Book.

The Suns would have been even better with Luka or Shai, and I notice there is zero rebuttal to the other examples I gave like Luka & Kyrie, or Harden, Kyrie & KD (who due to injuries and COVID didn't play together much, but looked fantastic when they did). We have seen guys as on-ball as Harden team up well with other ball dominant stars, and I am baffled about why exactly Booker is this special case who just can't co-exist well with the Shai and Luka types.

But unless the fit is just unworkable, you take the best player available and figure it out later, or trade down if it is. By 2023 it was obvious Luka was better than JJJ, which is why he is leading this poll by such a huge margin over Jackson. It was pretty obvious to me Shai was better too, and I'm still confused why you had him behind Trae. This is a strange hill to die on. I think your assessment of these guys was just offbase.

[Doctor MJ]

The Suns may have had the view that Booker wouldn't work with Shai or Luka, but redrafting with hindsight (which is what this thread is about) that view was clearly wrong.

Not only has Booker shared the floor with CP3, who handles the ball alot even if he doesn't score as much, but he's shared it with KD who takes alot of shots also. We have also seen plenty of successful pairings of this sort, from Luka and Kyrie, to Harden and KD (and Irving). It would actually be a good thing if Booker went off ball more like he used to in fact. This isn't like Lebron & Wade, where their skillsets overlap but Wade is just a worse version who can't hit 3s. There is also plenty of ball to go around if both guys want to drive and handle alot, e.g. Luka and Kyrie. I don't see it as 'less than the sum of its parts'.

We also knew enough to know all this 2 years ago. I don't think it ever made sense to take JJJ over Luka, and by 2 years ago you could say the same about Shai.

In 2023, building around Booker had resulted in a finals appearance, a 60+ win team, and the ability to get Kevin Durant to force his way to the team, while the Mavs had just missed the play-in altogether. I'd say the Suns were pretty content at the time with how it all played out at that point. How confident I am? Well, considerably more comfortable than I am saying the same about Mavs management given what we know now.

Now in 2025, the Suns have had to blow up the super-team and are recognizing that they're now behind where they started - worse supporting cast around Booker and less future draft picks - and meanwhile there was an MVP level prospect in the 2018 draft who we just watched lead to the chip no Sun has ever been able to do, and he came with absolutely zero Luka-style baggage. No real debate at this point who #1 pick would be.

Re: also shared with KD. Dude, they just had to blow that up because they never synergized together. You're now literally looking at the Suns great chemistry failures around Booker to try to prove chemistry around Booker doesn't matter.

Re: plenty of ball to go around. In basketball, there is only one basketball on the basketball court while the basketball game is being played.

If the defense knows that when you have the ball they don't have to worry much about the other star, you're going to have diminishing returns.

Firstly, despite being past his prime, the win-loss record still holds up well for KD's time with the Suns. From 23 to 25 the Suns were 85-60 with him, and 15-30 without him. The problem was not a lack of synergy between KD and Booker, the problem was Booker regressing, Beal not fitting in, and the rest of the roster being poorly designed around KD & Book.

The Suns would have been even better with Luka or Shai, and I notice there is zero rebuttal to the other examples I gave like Luka & Kyrie, or Harden, Kyrie & KD (who due to injuries and COVID didn't play together much, but looked fantastic when they did). We have seen guys as on-ball as Harden team up well with other ball dominant stars, and I am baffled about why exactly Booker is this special case who just can't co-exist well with the Shai and Luka types.

Okay, so we're clear: When I talk about synergy or chemistry, I also mean fit, and generally what I'm pointing to teams where players' capacity for impact has greater resilience than we would typically expect.

We're both, in other words pointing to the same thing, but while I'm pointing to it as a thing we know didn't live up to the levels of expectation that talent alone would suggest, while you're pointing to the fact that the team was not literally a below average team when Durant played. Both of these things are true.

"I notice there is zero rebuttal to the other examples I gave..." So, I'm going to move to the next point and hope I don't have to deal with that tone again. You're not paying me to respond to every thought/post/example you can think to put forth and should have no expectation that of a right to my time.

But unless the fit is just unworkable, you take the best player available and figure it out later, or trade down if it is. By 2023 it was obvious Luka was better than JJJ, which is why he is leading this poll by such a huge margin over Jackson. It was pretty obvious to me Shai was better too, and I'm still confused why you had him behind Trae. This is a strange hill to die on. I think your assessment of these guys was just offbase.

Okay so here we're getting to the heart of matters on a couple fronts I think.

The philosophical draft debate of BPA vs Fit is an age old one. You're clearly one of the many in basketball who really just believes in BPA when talking star-level prospects, and I really want to emphasize that many people see it like you do.

ftr, I wouldn't call myself a "Fit" guy in the sense of choosing to optimize fit without regard to talent, but I do think about them in concert, which can lead me to make a call that is fit-based.

This is something we can end up agreeing to disagree on, or keep going, but the other critical wrinkle here is this:

You're not trying to get in the heads of those making the team-building decisions here, whereas doing so is my primary focus, and so we're in danger of talking past each other.

What you end here with moving over to me previously having Trae go ahead of Shai I think really shows us how this can happen.

What I wrote on that line was:

3. Atlanta - Trae Young (5), I think they'd go with him again, particularly with Luka off the table.

So my reasoning was explicitly about what I thought the Atlanta Hawks front office would do, but when you're responding to me, you're describing it as "a strange hill to die on" as if I'm specifically arguing counter to your assertion "It was pretty obvious to me Shai was better".

Simply put, you were not responding to what I wrote, but rather what you imagined I must have thought in order to have the draft order listed I did.