Post#68 » by eminence » Sun Aug 24, 2025 3:02 pm
'20 Lakers Credit divvying
Noting that with the additional data, along with it having been a fairly recent season I've seen much more of - I am much more confident in my takeaways on the Lakers than I will be on the Bulls.
Broad team eval based on 1st post. Slightly below average RS for a championship squad, strengthened to an above average PO run. Solid reliance on D in RS, which held up alright in the playoffs (maybe a slight underperformance relative to baseline expectations). Offense notably stepped up in the POs. Didn't play any particularly notable squads in the POs, we remember them a half decade out, but I don't see them lasting (last hurrah Rockets, baby Nuggets, Jimmy on his bull).
RS 4 Factors:
Off eFG% - 5th
Off Tov% - 23rd
ORB% - 4th
O FT/FGA - 15th
Def eFG% - 7th
Def Tov% - 3rd
DRB% - 7th
D FT/FGA - 16th
They made their shots and forced misses, won the rebounding battle convincingly, and had a slight turnover edge (forced a bunch, but also a bit turnover prone themselves). Pretty neutral in the FT battle.
Their surprise top two in TS Add were - Davis and Howard (McGee 3rd/LeBron 4th). Howard was absurdly efficient at very low volume and McGee was a lesser version of the same, credit to them for strong work on the offensive glass and being generally good finishers, but also a lot of credit to LeBron for feeding them. LeBron the teams only real unassisted bucket getter and did so at good volume/decent efficiency. AD also had a high shot volume/decent efficiency from the floor but was much more of a finisher. Davis had a great foul draw rate and hit them. Howard had an absurd foul draw rate (some intentional), but didn't hit them.
On the other end Howard/McGee both made sure to use their fouls when they were on the court, nobody else particularly foul prone. LeBron particularly foul avoidant on a personal level.
Turnovers - LeBron a bit turnover prone, but high value stuff. Secondary creators being underwhelming compounded the issue. LeBron/Davis both clear positives in forcing turnovers (great athletes with good anticipation force turnovers?!?), Green/Caruso also great here.
Rebounding - LeBron/Davis/Howard all very strong positional rebounders (McGee great on the offensive glass, but less great on D). Running a lot of lineups that had size advantage. Bron running the offense from the 3 allowed a bit more size/defense focus from the 1 as well, though I think it was mostly the goodness of the bigger guys.
Def eFG% - looking at individual shot defense it looks largely like Davis, but he shows up a bit underwhelmingly in team measures. LeBron looks strong in both, though low volume individual shot defense.
Top lineups:
Bradley/Green/LeBron/Davis/McGee - 25-7 starting, 389 minutes, +12.2
KCP/Green/LeBron/Davis/McGee - 18-4 starting, 294 minutes, -1.7
Rondo/KCP/LeBron/Kuzma/Howard - 144 minutes, +15.5
LeBron/AD Wowy (RS) - databallr
Both, 1455 minutes, +8.8
Bron, 862 minutes, +10.0
AD, 677 minutes, -2.4
Neither, 425 minutes, +0.8
The Bradley to KCP change there is certainly not *that* big of deal, but it does point towards his bubble loss maybe being a bigger deal than one might initially expect. Not going to list out all their lineups (they ran a bunch), but broadly what we saw is that the starters were strong with Bradley, Bron+depth = great lineup, Davis+depth not so great. In individual on/off data - we see LeBron as being clearly the most impactful on both ends, with regression Davis sometimes takes the lead on defense, but LeBron still the clear overall/offensive lead. Caruso is notably defensively impactful in limited minutes (strongly believable with his continued performance since then), the rest of the cast has no real standouts positive or negative in impact numbers, just a bunch of solid role guys who fit in decently around the stars.
Broad takeaways - Two star squad (duh), with a defensively slanted cast (duh). Bron/AD in the realm of co-anchors for the D (in impact, not role), with Bron floating an otherwise underwhelming offense to respectability (AD played well off Bron, but couldn't lead the squad offensively).
POs - taking the above as baselines and mostly looking for changes in any particular series.
Round 1 vs the Blazers
-Defensive domination, they turned all the Blazers over (Caruso moving up in the rotation without Bradley contributing?) and the Blazers couldn't make baskets.
-Dame did a fair job getting to the line.
-LeBron/AD scoring very well, but the role guys weren't hitting.
-Rondo didn't play this series.
Round 2 vs the Rockets
-Lakers hit their shots in this one and erased Houston from the offensive glass.
-Bron/AD were still scorching, but additionally all the role guys were hitting in this series.
-Rockets tiny ball unsurprisingly bullied on the glass even with the Lakers benching the bigs (Howard/McGee) and moving AD to the 5. Tucker/Covington/Jeff Green as your big rotation is just not getting it done against a LeBron/AD frontline.
-Rondo was back and the Lakers moved (relatively) a lot of the playmaking duty to him.
Round 3 vs the Nuggets
-Howard back into the lineup to combat Jokic, did a pretty good job of it.
-Both teams turned it over and it was a bit of a FT fest (AD in particular with 55 FTA in 5 games, hitting 50 of them). So I guess I'm a bit unsure if this series was actually the offenses taking over or if it was a tight whistle leading to the Ortgs. Would have to go back and watch to see how I felt.
-Nuggets stars were feasting, but they didn't get their 4th/5th starters going offensively (Millsap/Harris), seemed to have more success when they went to the bench duo of Morris/MPJ
-Similar story for the Lakers with Danny Green struggling a bit, but Rondo looking good.
Finals vs the Heat
-More games the Lakers won by dominating on the glass, largely with AD at the 5. LeBron/AD seemingly the two doing the bullying.
-Bron/AD again dominant on offense, but the support struggling a bit again. Rondo continue to make plays.
-Jimmy does his best Bron impression on the other side, but Bam isn't AD even when healthy and he wasn't healthy. Support from 3 on down looked pretty good from the Heat, outside of Herro, who as a rookie with #2 offensive duties was unsurprisingly out of his depth in the NBA Finals.
LeBron/AD WOWY (PO)
Both, 566 minutes, +13.9 (even better as a duo in the POs)
Davis, 203 minutes, +5.1 (Rondo being healthy/stepping up seems to have briefly unlocked the AD+depth lineups)
James, 196 minutes, +2.3 (less dominant than the RS, but still good)
Neither, 43 minutes, -44.7 (tiny sample in largely meaningless minutes)
POs Overall
-Shifted smaller and saw a corresponding shift from defense to offense.
-Among the role guys particular credit to Caruso/Rondo for the PO run relative to the RS. The bigs got left behind a bit, but Howard still stepped in and did the job when they needed him against Jokic (and they may have really needed him based off what Jokic has done to AD the last few PO runs, though Jokic may have not been ready for that yet in '20).
-Credit to LeBron/AD for maintaining good defense shifting to the 4/5, naturally letting their offense flourish a bit more.
-In the PO run it feels more like a 1a/1b run for the two vs the 1/2 during the regular season. Still going with LeBron as the 1a because I was particularly impressed with his rebounding work at the 4 (feel he was their top PO rebounder) and he always drew more attention on offense even when Davis was scorching.
-Stylistically I absolutely love the LeBron at the 4 we briefly saw this PO run, would be one of my favorite players to build around ever.
LeBron credit overall
-Good argument as the best defensive season ever from a guy who could serve as a fulltime perimeter initiator (think it comes down to if you prefer any of his earlier seasons defensively or if you think KG/Giannis could ever really serve as fulltime initiators). My take is this was his best and they couldn't, so 2020 LeBron for #1. Great communicator, avoided fouling, very good work on the glass, strong man defender with lots of versatility (though not a primary role). Added a bit as a secondary rim protector.
-Offensively not nearly as impressive, and not close to a top end LeBron season, arguably his worst in prime season. His assist volume rose but it felt more due to role/decline of his own scoring necessitating it than due to any direct changes in him as a playmaker (I'd say he'd declined there a bit from the 2nd Cleveland stint where he was really pushing All-time level, though still a step behind Magic/Nash imo). Scoring wise, not what he once was, worse from pretty much everywhere on the floor. Obviously all relative and still more than capable in an absolute sense.
Combines to make a very strong season that I can see putting in the very top tier of seasons all-time, my instinct would have it towards the bottom of that tier. I could reasonably see it towards the top of tier 2, but I personally don't feel there's a tier of season up from 2020 LeBron.
I bought a boat.