2025-2026: Around the League

[eyriq]

For some reason I thought they would start new teams vs acquiring existing teams from different leagues. This is going to be a fun era.

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[jezzerinho]

For some reason I thought they would start new teams vs acquiring existing teams from different leagues. This is going to be a fun era.

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Madrid doesn't give a f**k about the leagues.they play in. They want the best deal going so it doesn't surprise me they'd be a key piece (and a fairly easy one) to land for the NBA.

As much as I hate LeBron, his move to build a rival global league should push needed league reform in world basketball. NBA Europe might or might not be a good solution, but there will.be change in the coming decade - that much is clear.

[KillMonger]

For some reason I thought they would start new teams vs acquiring existing teams from different leagues. This is going to be a fun era.

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this is another reason why i'm not really worried about Seattle getting a team any time soon, i heard earlier this year on some podcast that expansion overseas is closer than expansion in the states....Silver is more interested in europe for the moment

[jezzerinho]

Owners don't want to split the current pie apparently.

[drsd]

Owners don't want to split the current pie apparently.

Short term, the current owners all get a fee from the new teams that has 0% sharing with players. This is free money. Operating costs do not go up with new teams. But tv revenue will be diluted over the terms of thee current CBA. So: the fee must generate more income than the lost tv revenue. And it will, by a lot. Any new NBA team will be worth 2B each. So, the fee could easily be 70M to each team.

Let's say the current tv deal brings in 7000M per year. Divided by 30 teams is 233M per team. And players get half. So teams "only" get 116.5M in tv money per year. Adding 2 teams, that drops to 109.4M per year. So an NBA team loses 7M per year to get 70M in a one off payment. So, 10 years of tv money is gained in one year. The current TV deal is 11 years, so it "sounds" like a loss. But this is upfront money that Economic Actualization shows is more money. It gets into "Realisation of Economic Potential" and "Discounting Future Cash Flows to Present Value" type issues.

And the next TV deal would have two new TV markets in it for future, added growth above the 7000M per year the current deal pays.
(Man is this crazy money).

[GelbeWand09]

I'm happy we didn't trade for Fox. That contract is a killer. I was already sure Spurs gonna trade him again over the next 2 seasons before that. He is good but still one of the most overrated Allstar players in the leaque. A PG that doesn't make players better around him but is not efficient enough to have enough value as a scorer himself and gives you spacing problems. Meh defender and doesn't get to the line. I definitely take Bane for his contract over the next 3 years over Fox every day.

[jezzerinho]

I'm happy we didn't trade for Fox. That contract is a killer. I was already sure Spurs gonna trade him again over the next 2 seasons before that. He is good but still one of the most overrated Allstar players in the leaque. A PG that doesn't make players better around him but is not efficient enough to have enough value as a scorer himself and gives you spacing problems. Meh defender and doesn't get to the line. I definitely take Bane for his contract over the next 3 years over Fox every day.

Isn't it weird how indispensable a great PG appears to be to the NBA brand of basketball (and most others too), yet when you stop and think there are so few examples of current great PGs who stay consistently great and deserve their max or supermax contracts?

You'd have bet on Fox becoming a perennial All NBA point guard that is a franchise keystone by now. His contract is up there but his influence on the game hasn't evolved to match.

So many PGs plateau before greatness or have v short primes before their contracts dwarf their production. One of the reasons some teams like the Magic are pivoting to sharing the creation load and using combo guards?

Makes you appreciate all the more guys like CP3, Irving, Curry. Hali (if he recovers well) looks like the only current young candidate able to make the leap to greatness (if you consider SGA a combo or shooting guard).

[pepe1991]

I'm happy we didn't trade for Fox. That contract is a killer. I was already sure Spurs gonna trade him again over the next 2 seasons before that. He is good but still one of the most overrated Allstar players in the leaque. A PG that doesn't make players better around him but is not efficient enough to have enough value as a scorer himself and gives you spacing problems. Meh defender and doesn't get to the line. I definitely take Bane for his contract over the next 3 years over Fox every day.

Isn't it weird how indispensable a great PG appears to be to the NBA brand of basketball (and most others too), yet when you stop and think there are so few examples of current great PGs who stay consistently great and deserve their max or supermax contracts?

You'd have bet on Fox becoming a perennial All NBA point guard that is a franchise keystone by now. His contract is up there but his influence on the game hasn't evolved to match.

So many PGs plateau before greatness or have v short primes before their contracts dwarf their production. One of the reasons some teams like the Magic are pivoting to sharing the creation load and using combo guards?

Makes you appreciate all the more guys like CP3, Irving, Curry. Hali (if he recovers well) looks like the only current young candidate able to make the leap to greatness (if you consider SGA a combo or shooting guard).

I assume because so many of them are great because of their speed, so they peak early and get worst as they decline physically due fact they are almost always smallest people on the court.

Combo guards aren't much different. You can't even find good several good combo guard older than 27-28 for same reasons so few PGs stay good for long(er).

Also nowadays combo guard is basically PG who isn't good at playmaking


Because how long they play and for how long they are best players in the world, guys like Durant, Curry, Lebron changed perception of what's "normal" and when players peak.

In reallity, paying just about anybody over age of 30, who isn't clear cut top 3 player- supermax money is suicidal for contending.

[jezzerinho]

I'm happy we didn't trade for Fox. That contract is a killer. I was already sure Spurs gonna trade him again over the next 2 seasons before that. He is good but still one of the most overrated Allstar players in the leaque. A PG that doesn't make players better around him but is not efficient enough to have enough value as a scorer himself and gives you spacing problems. Meh defender and doesn't get to the line. I definitely take Bane for his contract over the next 3 years over Fox every day.

Isn't it weird how indispensable a great PG appears to be to the NBA brand of basketball (and most others too), yet when you stop and think there are so few examples of current great PGs who stay consistently great and deserve their max or supermax contracts?

You'd have bet on Fox becoming a perennial All NBA point guard that is a franchise keystone by now. His contract is up there but his influence on the game hasn't evolved to match.

So many PGs plateau before greatness or have v short primes before their contracts dwarf their production. One of the reasons some teams like the Magic are pivoting to sharing the creation load and using combo guards?

Makes you appreciate all the more guys like CP3, Irving, Curry. Hali (if he recovers well) looks like the only current young candidate able to make the leap to greatness (if you consider SGA a combo or shooting guard).

I assume because so many of them are great because of their speed, so they peak early and get worst as they decline physically due fact they are almost always smallest people on the court.

Combo guards aren't much different. You can't even find good several good combo guard older than 27-28 for same reasons so few PGs stay good for long(er).

Also nowadays combo guard is basically PG who isn't good at playmaking


Because how long they play and for how long they are best players in the world, guys like Durant, Curry, Lebron changed perception of what's "normal" and when players peak.

In reallity, paying just about anybody over age of 30, who isn't clear cut top 3 player- supermax money is suicidal for contending.

You have to wonder in whose interest is it to develop the handle and passing toolbag necessary to be a top PG? If they don't have it in high school already, college and pro teams aren't going to prioritise the many hours needed to have a top handle.

As a result you end up with more "athlete-guards" who rely on short-lived physical traits and fewer "skills-guards" who have longevity because their skills are rare and help them age more slowly.

[BadMofoPimp]

I think Bane fits the team better and is cheaper. Could be a juggernaut defensively if all gels with the 3 point shooting to improve along with young player growth, pretty damned exciting.

[drsd]

..

ESPN: NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Turnarounds, turbulent teams and the biggest questions

Buried in this is the notion that Orlando will have the 4th best improvement in their top-6, as assessed by media-head types. Basically I agree with the poll in general.
(I would have Dallas and not Minny on my list; but whatever)
Looking at the scoring it is basically 4 teams "certain" to be better this year:

T1. San Antonio Spurs/Atlanta Hawks: 55 points

2. Philadelphia 76ers: 49 points

3. Orlando Magic: 48 points

4. Minnesota Timberwolves: 6 points

5. Houston Rockets: 5 points

Five of the six stone droppers are spot on:

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 41 points

2. Los Angeles Lakers: 32 points

T3. Boston Celtics/Phoenix Suns: 28 points

4. Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points

5. Indiana Pacers: 19 points

So: "Philly will surprise" is certain, but how - up or down - is unclear. I agree.

[MasterGMer]

Lakers got better and they still drop? 76ers could be worse this year also with Joel Embiid and PG back hopefully sometime?

[basketballRob]

Lakers got better and they still drop? 76ers could be worse this year also with Joel Embiid and PG back hopefully sometime?

Do you mean the 76ers will be better?

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[MasterGMer]

Lakers got better and they still drop? 76ers could be worse this year also with Joel Embiid and PG back hopefully sometime?

Do you mean the 76ers will be better?

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At least better than last season.

[drsd]

NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions for every major NBA award

ESPN link

Who will win Coach of the Year?

1. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 points

2. Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 points

3. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 22 points

4. Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 points

5. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points

For me 50-55 wins does NOT win Mosley Coach of the Year. Heck, most saw last year's team as a 50-win roster (if healthy) and Mosley was not part of any pre-season predictions (to my memory).

So: what is ESPN predicting here? 60+ wins for the Magic and the 1 or 2 seed? That sort of is a min for a CoY award, right?

[Skybox]

NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions for every major NBA award

ESPN link

Who will win Coach of the Year?

1. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 points

2. Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 points

3. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 22 points

4. Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 points

5. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points

For me 50-55 wins does NOT win Mosley Coach of the Year. Heck, most saw last year's team as a 50-win roster (if healthy) and Mosley was not part of any pre-season predictions (to my memory).

So: what is ESPN predicting here? 60+ wins for the Magic and the 1 or 2 seed? That sort of is a min for a CoY award, right?

I like it...if Mose can maintain the rabid defense and team vibe while integrating Prunty's offensive creativity towards a top 15 offense-he'll deserve it. The interaction between a weak offensive head coach with a strong veteran assistant is no small thing. It's a dangerous but critical dynamic. Mose's personality and leadership is SO good but it's kind of humbling to accept that degree of help without weakening his unquestioned leadership...I think he's as good a bet as anyone.

Carlisle was very threatened by Mosley's relationship with the players (that he just couldn't match)...this is a very different scenario but still potentially prickly...Hopefully, Prunty is another Tex Winter - a genius contributor who is happy to operate in the shadows.

[drsd]

Now this one:

Who will win the Eastern Conference finals?

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 98 points

2. New York Knicks: 72 points

3. Orlando Magic: 21 points

4. Milwaukee Bucks: 7 points

5. Indiana Pacers: 3 points

So, Orlando is 3rd-best bet for ESPN to win the East. Sounds about correct to me. I do think it is likely that the New York and Orlando will meet in round-2. With the winner getting the Cavs-SomeOtherTeam winner.

That said, as the Cavs will probably start the season more mediocre, if Orlando keeps their foot on their accelerator, a 1-seed Magic in the playoffs, anything is possible.

Here's hoping the goal is a 60-win season where anything less than 50 wins is seen as a failure.

[basketballRob]

Next season for the Magic depends on the health of Suggs.

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