Josh Giddey 3.0

[SalmonsSuperfan]

I can’t even imagine how boring it must to still be discussing Giddey and Kuminga

I think the interesting part is that they, along with Cam Thomas and Quentin Grimes, are still restricted free agents at this late stage in the offseason. Seems a little unprecedented doesn't it? I'm not paying super close attention, but my impression is that, historically, these mid-tier guys are getting offer sheets pretty early in free agency. None of these guys deserves the massive contract they are demanding but are probably worth more than whatever their qualifying offer is. Since no other team is offering big bucks, do they take a multi-year offer with their current team, with an AAV above the QO, yet well below what they're requesting? What if they get injured next season? A guaranteed $15mil AAV across 4 or 5 seasons is certainly more money than $11mil + whatever contract coming off an injury. Maybe they're not the same player. Maybe they don't get injured and enter UFA and earn a huge salary. It's a risk to take the QO when you could otherwise be guaranteed tens of millions. I'm thinking about Dennis Schroder who turned down $84mil over four years and ended up signing for $6mil (+$15mil totaling roughly $21mil across those same 4 years) I'm also thinking about Juan Soto who turned down $440mil and signed for $765mil. It could go either way, but (I know it's a different sport) I'm not sure Giddey is in a position to bet on himself too much. If no one is offering him $25mil AAV now or whatever he wants, why should he get more as an UFA? Maybe teams will have more cap space and there will be fewer free agents, I don't really know the landscape. I feel like the Bulls have all the cards with Giddey and could lowball him for multiple years. But maybe he just takes the QO.

I think this situation is actually pretty interesting. A couple years ago, MLB free agents like Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Jacob DeGrom earned massive contracts that they're all pretty much underperforming to various extents, when much, MUCH cheaper players could fill the same hole. Now, those sorts of players are signing 'prove it' deals or certainly well below what they expected. Below is an article that briefly discusses it, but MLB teams seemed to be more cautious after that.
https://fantasyindex.com/2024/03/19/fantasy-baseball-index/scott-boras-failed-to-deliver-for-his-clients

The sunk cost is obviously more impactful in basketball with a salary cap, so I imagine front offices are even less keen on giving big bucks to guys who might not move the needle so much. If I'm the Bulls, I offer Giddey a $75mil/5 year contract and see if he takes it. Or something around there. $80mil over four years max. No need to negotiate with yourself, so what if he leaves in free agency. Caruso turned into Giddey, you can just get those guys in free agency anyway.

[dougthonus]

I don't think there's a single way that "the process" of negotiation works, but I pointed out that Giddey appears to have made an offer (whatever his starting ask was) and further pointed out some counter offers he should consider (different length) and amounts.

Giddey's offer, while high, has some justification in the sense that he can point to other guys and teams agreeing to those things. The Bulls offer is notably below what the market seems to be. A simple way to put it is that the Bulls are the ones who are not "engaged".

Because of they are not engaged, the onus is on the Bulls to engage by making an offer that at least hits those minimums to be competitive.
Which is why Giddey is probably right to sit tight and say, "come back when you're serious". There's no point in responding to non-competitive offers. In fact, there is a point in not-responding to them.

If I remove the narrative and only use numbers:
Bulls: 20M AAV
Giddey: 30M AAV
Deal you think Giddey should take 22.5M AAV

One side is much further from that number than the other side. FWIW, I think they should settle at 25M AAV and both sides are equally at fault for moving this forward to the extent I would want to put fault on it, but I don't really put fault on it either way as I view it as simply tactical on both ends.

If I just wanted to focus on narrative, I'd say Giddey is a FA, he can talk with anyone in the league. He has only two offers, both from the Bulls. If he wants a 3rd one he should generate one or negotiate further with the team that has an offer out there for him. It's more complicated than that of course, which is why I'm not focusing on narrative and focusing on actual numbers that I think are fair. I'd wager both sides have very different numbers they think are fair which is why time pressure is likely the only thing to move it forward.

[dougthonus]

I can’t even imagine how boring it must to still be discussing Giddey and Kuminga

It is a funny state of the bulls that Giddey's had like 200 pages of off-season thread and is like your 3rd or 4th best guy on a really good team.

[dougthonus]

I think the interesting part is that they, along with Cam Thomas and Quentin Grimes, are still restricted free agents at this late stage in the offseason.

I think it is interesting to see what's happening with FA, the question is really "is this a unique market" or "the new normal"?

People have brought up restricted free agency as the thing killing everyone here, but who is signing Kuminga, Giddey, Grimes, or Thomas if they were unrestricted all summer? At least three of them would be in the same boat, maybe all four.

Giddey probably is way better off being an RFA rather than a UFA. If he was a UFA right now and didn't have the QO to fall back on, he'd have no leverage whatsoever on the Bulls.

[sco]

I think the interesting part is that they, along with Cam Thomas and Quentin Grimes, are still restricted free agents at this late stage in the offseason.

I think it is interesting to see what's happening with FA, the question is really "is this a unique market" or "the new normal"?

People have brought up restricted free agency as the thing killing everyone here, but who is signing Kuminga, Giddey, Grimes, or Thomas if they were unrestricted all summer? At least three of them would be in the same boat, maybe all four.

Giddey probably is way better off being an RFA rather than a UFA. If he was a UFA right now and didn't have the QO to fall back on, he'd have no leverage whatsoever on the Bulls.

IDK, you could argue that the reason more teams didn't bid on him was that the Bulls were pretty open about wanting to keep him (matching).

Your earlier point about Giddey being the 3rd or 4th best player on a good team is somewhat at the crux of disagreement. There are many (no me) here who are arguing that "end of season Giddey" is the real Giddey and that he is more like a top 2 guy.

[dougthonus]

IDK, you could argue that the reason more teams didn't bid on him was that the Bulls were pretty open about wanting to keep him (matching).

Who? No one had money except Brooklyn. It was also reported that they simply weren't interested in starting their rebuild with Giddey.

Your earlier point about Giddey being the 3rd or 4th best player on a good team is somewhat at the crux of disagreement. There are many (no me) here who are arguing that "end of season Giddey" is the real Giddey and that he is more like a top 2 guy.

The Athletic article was pretty telling that no one interviewed looked at him that way. A #2 guy would get the 25% max without even blinking. No one on this forum, in terms of how they would pay him, seems to think that either. Maybe Infinity would go max push come to shove, but I would bet the number of people willing to do that is very small. A #3 guy that can be a poor man's #1 guy in our situation should probably be in the ball park of 25% max too.

Granted, we're probably all influenced by the news, offers, and situation too, maybe Giddey would be a good deal even on a 25% max making 38M per year, and we're only stuck on lower numbers because Giddey himself asked for 30M and there is no market, so we know the number we're going to sign him at is say 20-28M, and thus we match our opinions to that range rather than the range of our perceived viewpoint of his ability.

If you think Giddey is for sure a #3 or better player on a title team, then any deal we sign him at would be a great value for that type of productivity, even his initial ask of 30M would be fine.

[sco]

IDK, you could argue that the reason more teams didn't bid on him was that the Bulls were pretty open about wanting to keep him (matching).

Who? No one had money except Brooklyn. It was also reported that they simply weren't interested in starting their rebuild with Giddey.

Your earlier point about Giddey being the 3rd or 4th best player on a good team is somewhat at the crux of disagreement. There are many (no me) here who are arguing that "end of season Giddey" is the real Giddey and that he is more like a top 2 guy.

The Athletic article was pretty telling that no one interviewed looked at him that way. A #2 guy would get the 25% max without even blinking. No one on this forum, in terms of how they would pay him, seems to think that either. Maybe Infinity would go max push come to shove, but I would bet the number of people willing to do that is very small. A #3 guy that can be a poor man's #1 guy in our situation should probably be in the ball park of 25% max too.

Granted, we're probably all influenced by the news, offers, and situation too, maybe Giddey would be a good deal even on a 25% max making 38M per year, and we're only stuck on lower numbers because Giddey himself asked for 30M and there is no market, so we know the number we're going to sign him at is say 20-28M, and thus we match our opinions to that range rather than the range of our perceived viewpoint of his ability.

If you think Giddey is for sure a #3 or better player on a title team, then any deal we sign him at would be a great value for that type of productivity, even his initial ask of 30M would be fine.

IMO, a team like Utah could have done something if they wanted.

I can't defend the POV (that I don't necessarily share) that he is a top 2 guy other to say that his questionable end-of-season stats were pretty gaudy if "real". I would also add that he did continue to play great in the play-in game, so there is at least anecdotal support, but again, I'm not there on my belief in his massive uptick, but man, it would be great.

[dougthonus]

IMO, a team like Utah could have done something if they wanted.

Maybe, but they'd have had to make other moves to do so, and that seems like a real stretch based on Danny Ainge's MO.

I can't defend the POV (that I don't necessarily share) that he is a top 2 guy other to say that his questionable end-of-season stats were pretty gaudy if "real". I would also add that he did continue to play great in the play-in game, so there is at least anecdotal support, but again, I'm not there on my belief in his massive uptick, but man, it would be great.

I don't have much energy to debate Giddey's role as #2-#4 given you are playing devil's advocate. I'd just say my contract number pays him as really good 4th dude at 25M which lines up with my opinion of him. If you think he's a #3 or better on a title caliber team, then I'd understand why you'd be super anxious just to get this done, because even 30M is okay for a legit #3, and it's an incredible bargain for a legit #2.

[Stratmaster]

I don't think there's a single way that "the process" of negotiation works, but I pointed out that Giddey appears to have made an offer (whatever his starting ask was) and further pointed out some counter offers he should consider (different length) and amounts.

Giddey's offer, while high, has some justification in the sense that he can point to other guys and teams agreeing to those things. The Bulls offer is notably below what the market seems to be. A simple way to put it is that the Bulls are the ones who are not "engaged".

Because of they are not engaged, the onus is on the Bulls to engage by making an offer that at least hits those minimums to be competitive.
Which is why Giddey is probably right to sit tight and say, "come back when you're serious". There's no point in responding to non-competitive offers. In fact, there is a point in not-responding to them.

If I remove the narrative and only use numbers:
Bulls: 20M AAV
Giddey: 30M AAV
Deal you think Giddey should take 22.5M AAV

One side is much further from that number than the other side. FWIW, I think they should settle at 25M AAV and both sides are equally at fault for moving this forward to the extent I would want to put fault on it, but I don't really put fault on it either way as I view it as simply tactical on both ends.

If I just wanted to focus on narrative, I'd say Giddey is a FA, he can talk with anyone in the league. He has only two offers, both from the Bulls. If he wants a 3rd one he should generate one or negotiate further with the team that has an offer out there for him. It's more complicated than that of course, which is why I'm not focusing on narrative and focusing on actual numbers that I think are fair. I'd wager both sides have very different numbers they think are fair which is why time pressure is likely the only thing to move it forward.

In all this discussion, the following is information that is either facts or the most reliable information available from reporting.

1. Giddey set a starting point for negotiations at 30 million. It is worth noting that Giddey did not "make an offer". Players don't make offers. Teams do.

2. The Bulls reportedly made an offer of 4/80.

3. There are only 1 or 2 teams out there who could sign Giddey as a free agent due to new salary rules.

4. It was reported that multiple teams approached the Bulls about a sign and trade. The Bulls refused to consider these offers. The fact that multiple teams inquired is a solid indication multiple teams are willing to pay Giddey something more than 20 mil AAV. I would expect (this not a fact or from reliable reporting, just common sense) it means they are willing to pay him 25-30 mil AAV because:
A) they would expect the Bulls first offer isn't their final, and

B) they know that Giddey is holding out because he wants significantly more than what the Bulls offered.

So I think we can dispense with "where are the offers for Giddey at" or "other teams don't think he is worth more".

Absolutely circumstances have put Giddey in a situation where it is difficult to get paid what other players in his position have been paid in the past. I avoided saying "what he is worth" because we have different feelings about that. But if the Bulls don't want to pay him, and other teams do, the Bulls should be doing their best to facilitate a sign and trade for the best assets they can get. Instead they seem to be holding him hostage just "because they can".

[drosestruts]

Restricted free agency is broken and I'm not sure what the fix is

Create a separate, shorter transaction period specifically for RFAs?

Draft - June 25th
RFA begins July 1st | RFA ends July 8th (players either re-sign, sign somewhere else, take the QO, or get released as a UFA)
Regular free agency begins July 10

Nonsense, RFA is working exactly as designed. What's the problem with waiting it out?

I agree RFA is working as designed for the owners - eliminating competition for young free agents and giving them the option to play hardball on contracts.

I also don't think players will prioritize changes to RFA either. It only happens once.

[Stratmaster]

1. Watch for decades, you'll see a lot of things happen. What usually happens? Are you seriously saying the majority of negotiations in the NBA between two parties last 4 -5 months? Far apart is one thing. Now define far apart. Parties often come in with a 50% difference in valuation and make a deal? 50% is a HUGE gap to bridge without anybody moving till force. Name some contracts where a player actually signed for 33% less than what he was asking for, if it happens often. A player was asking $30 mill and signed for $20 mill. They usually end up with another team. Or sign a short term deal. Thing preventing that is combination of Giddey's RFA tag and no money in the market. He's still the same player.

How far were the Pacers and Myles Turner apart for him to end up on the Bucks badmouthing the Pacers? He only got $26 mil, Pacers offer was reportedly north of $20mill.

The majority of negotiations that do not have an immediate resolution and a wide gap, do not get concluded until there is some type of event that creates pressure. There is no event in these negotiations to create pressure until the deadline comes.

2. Reverse it from the Bulls perspective. From the Bulls perspective, how much are they willing to pay Giddey at absolute most? That's where they actually value Giddey. How close to that number are they actually bidding? Forget what Giddey asked for. If Giddey asked for $25 mill, do you think the Bulls would have just given him that? Are they offering 25-50% less than their actual max as a starting point? Are you saying their offer was based on Giddey's asking price?

For all but the last question, you can ask the same questions of Giddey. What's the lowest number Giddey will actually accept? How close is his opening offer to that number? Forget what the Bulls offered. If the Bulls offered 25m do you think Giddey would have just taken that?

The answer to all those questions is unknown on both sides, but the sides are exactly equidistant apart from $25m so the total dollars are the same from a movement perspective regardless.

As for the Bulls offer, yes, I think there is a very reasonable chance that they think 25M is the number and made an equidistantly unreasonable offer in order to meet in the middle because while its irrational that people would just split the difference, there is this subconscious bias to do it if it doesn't feel too far off.

My opinion on that though is based on nothing other than that I think $25M is the fair number and the numbers line up that way, maybe the Bulls really think he's worth $22M and won't pay a dollar more, but I kind of doubt it.

3. You keep saying things are quite normal. For every single contract that goes like this, I can show you 5-10 that didn't. This is not usual contract negotiations. 3 other relatively big named restricted free agents are going through the same thing. Did that happen last year? Year before? Year before that? 4 of the top RFA's either took the QO or didn't sign until just before the season?

I'm saying it's very normal for negotiations not to move when both sides feel like they will lose by engaging and there is no reason to engage to overcome that bias.

4. I agree. I have no idea what the other parameters in the contract would or could be, which is why I'm suggesting focusing so much on the AAV is bad business. It does seem logical that the higher the AAV, the more the team could negotiate for team friendly terms, like last year option year. Maybe even last year option year AND back-load the contract, so the most money would come in a team option year with a larger cap.

Sure, we focus on AAV, but I agree other features have value for both sides, who knows how much those features are worth to both sides is up for debate.

This is the type of negotiation I'd love to hear they were doing. If two sides are trying to make a deal, there needs to be some give and take, usually. Maybe they are, and that's behind the scenes and we don't know it. I think if we heard they were at least talking and TRYING to get something one, that would help.

I would guess there are no serious discussions, because as I noted above, there is nothing adding pressure to talk now, and the perceived first mover will feel like they're losing, and unlike forum posters here, the people negotiating these deals are professionals and aren't flinching for no reason right now (on both sides).

Like if the Bulls are at 4yrs/$80 mill now. Why can't they send them an offer right now and say we'll give you 4 years/$23 mill but the last year will be a team option? Get the ball rolling. Maybe Giddey counters, same contract $27 mill AAV. Lot more leeway and time for both sides to move back and forth now than if they wait until the deadline.

Either side could do this, but neither side has much incentive to do it until there is time pressure.

More or less, the only thing I'm saying here is that these types of negotiations don't move until there is reason to move or some natural connection point. Neither side gains anything meaningful by getting the deal done today, so they don't have any incentive to engage. In most negotiations, time has a much bigger impact, both sides want the results of the deal sooner, but come October 2nd, it will make no difference whatsoever whether the deal was agreed to on July 1st, August 1st, Sept 1st, or Oct 1st.

There is no basis in fact for your content that most negotiating don't finalize until there is an event causing pressure.

A "we will just offer an equidistant amount" is a horrible negotiation approach. The amount offered should be, as I said before, "aggressive but realistic".

It is not normal for negotiations not to move. If you are that far apart, and not even having discussions to move closer, there is a problem.

You seem to believe that on some magical date at the deadline the two sides will look at each other and say "OK, we both knew the number was 25 AAV all along", smile, shake hands and the deal is done. That isn't how negotiations work when two sides are this far apart.

The fact that the Bulls haven't made another offer this long after the opening offer being refused is just stupid. And it isn't in Giddey to come back. As I said in another post, teams make offers, not players. Players accept offers. Giddey told his employer he is looking for 30. His employer said 20 andc we aren't budging. Giddey said no. Do they want to re-hire the guy or not?

[MikeDC]

So I think we can dispense with "where are the offers for Giddey at" or "other teams don't think he is worth more".

Absolutely circumstances have put Giddey in a situation where it is difficult to get paid what other players in his position have been paid in the past. I avoided saying "what he is worth" because we have different feelings about that. But if the Bulls don't want to pay him, and other teams do, the Bulls should be doing their best to facilitate a sign and trade for the best assets they can get. Instead they seem to be holding him hostage just "because they can".

Agree that it's a pointless to go down the "where are the offers" road, because we all know how RFA works.

I would say that there's very little doubt that the Bulls want Giddey. If some other team suddenly could and did offer him $25M/yr, I'm 99.9% sure the Bulls would immediately match it.

That's what I think is kind of lame. They're not even holding him hostage, because their intent is to never let him go. What the Bulls want is a long-term relationship. A marriage. If we're drawing analogies, I'd say it's more akin to a prenup. Signing a long term deal with key players is kind of like getting married. It's perfectly reasonable to sign a prenup.

But if you define out the harshest possible terms, you're not setting the stage for a very good relationship. And when you get too carried away, the other party might just decide at the end of the day that they don't need that bull and they'll find someone else.

There's still plenty of time, but the Bulls are seem like they're on the wrong side of this right now, and I don't see much reason for them to be.

[sco]

So I think we can dispense with "where are the offers for Giddey at" or "other teams don't think he is worth more".

Absolutely circumstances have put Giddey in a situation where it is difficult to get paid what other players in his position have been paid in the past. I avoided saying "what he is worth" because we have different feelings about that. But if the Bulls don't want to pay him, and other teams do, the Bulls should be doing their best to facilitate a sign and trade for the best assets they can get. Instead they seem to be holding him hostage just "because they can".

Agree that it's a pointless to go down the "where are the offers" road, because we all know how RFA works.

I would say that there's very little doubt that the Bulls want Giddey. If some other team suddenly could and did offer him $25M/yr, I'm 99.9% sure the Bulls would immediately match it.

That's what I think is kind of lame. They're not even holding him hostage, because their intent is to never let him go. What the Bulls want is a long-term relationship. A marriage. If we're drawing analogies, I'd say it's more akin to a prenup. Signing a long term deal with key players is kind of like getting married. It's perfectly reasonable to sign a prenup.

But if you define out the harshest possible terms, you're not setting the stage for a very good relationship. And when you get too carried away, the other party might just decide at the end of the day that they don't need that bull and they'll find someone else.

There's still plenty of time, but the Bulls are seem like they're on the wrong side of this right now, and I don't see much reason for them to be.

I feel like the only parties the Bulls seem to be on the wrong side of with their offer is a subset of fans. I still gotta think that Giddey must have been expecting exactly how this negotiation is going...it was too obvious for his agent not to know how it would work. And their lack of response to date seems pretty textbook to me too.

[dougthonus]

In all this discussion, the following is information that is either facts or the most reliable information available from reporting.

1. Giddey set a starting point for negotiations at 30 million. It is worth noting that Giddey did not "make an offer". Players don't make offers. Teams do.

2. The Bulls reportedly made an offer of 4/80.

Agreed, though I wouldn't get hung up on semantics of who makes offers. Both sides have put their number out there. To complete an agreement, both sides need to agree on a price. They've both made an initial price point they would agree to.

3. There are only 1 or 2 teams out there who could sign Giddey as a free agent due to new salary rules.

Super minor quibble, but there are no new salary rules. The salary cap and restricted free agency rules that are governing his process have been around for over 25 years. None of the new features around aprons are relevant to his situation.

4. It was reported that multiple teams approached the Bulls about a sign and trade. The Bulls refused to consider these offers.

Agreed. Though I would note the strength of this reporting is weak because no teams specific teams or prices were mentioned. Typically in a more heavily interest, you would see one or both of those things reported.

The fact that multiple teams inquired is a solid indication multiple teams are willing to pay Giddey something more than 20 mil AAV. I would expect (this not a fact or from reliable reporting, just common sense) it means they are willing to pay him 25-30 mil AAV because:
A) they would expect the Bulls first offer isn't their final, and

B) they know that Giddey is holding out because he wants significantly more than what the Bulls offered.

So I think we can dispense with "where are the offers for Giddey at" or "other teams don't think he is worth more".

I would take the reverse view and say you can't assume anything about price they would pay. If they were willing to pay more, Giddey's agent would be hellbent on trying to put that out and make it public to pressure the Bulls, and that hasn't happened. Even if there was strong indication of interest, Giddey's agent should be pushing out the Suns want Josh Giddey but can't do it.

The fact that there are no sourced teams and prices to me is more likely an indicator that interest is not at a super high level but more inquisitive. That said, just a guess, I wouldn't infer either side of that argument real strongly, but I would lean the opposite way of you.

Absolutely circumstances have put Giddey in a situation where it is difficult to get paid what other players in his position have been paid in the past.

Agreed. You can argue whether those circumstances are unique to this year, a change in how teams will assign value in the future, or based on how teams assess Josh Giddey as an individual player compared to other players in the past which are not actually remotely similar to Giddey outside of playing the same listed position (because really no one is similar to Giddey).

But if the Bulls don't want to pay him, and other teams do, the Bulls should be doing their best to facilitate a sign and trade for the best assets they can get. Instead they seem to be holding him hostage just "because they can".

The Bulls should be doing the best thing for the Chicago Bulls. That could be trying to strong arm him into a contract they really love. It could be trading him for assets now. There is a lot of "it depends" in there. What they should absolutely not do is get caught with him on the QO. If holding him hostage creates a better outcome for them, then yes, they should do that. I'm not saying it necessarily will, just saying, they should create the best outcome for themselves, and yes including whether they piss off Giddey so much it creates a negative outcome is a piece of that equation (though I think a very small piece).

[MikeDC]

There's still plenty of time, but the Bulls are seem like they're on the wrong side of this right now, and I don't see much reason for them to be.

I feel like the only parties the Bulls seem to be on the wrong side of with their offer is a subset of fans. I still gotta think that Giddey must have been expecting exactly how this negotiation is going...it was too obvious for his agent not to know how it would work. And their lack of response to date seems pretty textbook to me too.

Just because it's expected and obvious doesn't mean that's how it has to play out. Like, we all know what talking to a used car dealer or discussing your salary is like. But it's annoying, and part of what's so annoying you know it doesn't have to be pulling teeth. In good, respectful relationships between sensible people, these things often take care of themselves and you don't hear much about them at all. It's totally possible.

Some car dealers you walk into and they're like, here's the price, we don't really negotiate, and it's fine. Others are trying to hardball you and spin you in circles.

What I keep coming back to is which end of the spectrum are the Bulls on here? Right now, they're pretty annoying to deal with. Probably not so annoying that Giddey is going to just take the QO, but enough that they'll needlessly leave a bad taste in his mouth when they could've gotten to the same result in a less annoying fashion.

Some people and teams are just a chore to deal with.

[dougthonus]

There is no basis in fact for your content that most negotiating don't finalize until there is an event causing pressure.

It's extremely rare for a negotiation not to have time pressure built in, but I think it is definitely true that once you are at an impasse in a negotiation that is really important with big swings, that time pressure is the thing that usually resolves it. It's why most CBAs usually end up not making real traction when there is genuine disagreement until games are lost.

A "we will just offer an equidistant amount" is a horrible negotiation approach. The amount offered should be, as I said before, "aggressive but realistic".

Both sides may feel they have made aggressive but realistic offers. It's not for me to say. That's why there is a wide gap.

It is not normal for negotiations not to move. If you are that far apart, and not even having discussions to move closer, there is a problem.

It's not normal for there to be no time pressure for a negotiation to get done either. This is a really abnormal negotiation compared to most negotiations which both sides typically have a lot of time pressure to get things done. Ie, in your car example, the dealer has a lot of pressure to not let you leave, and depending on your situation you may have pressure to replace your vehicle right away.

Typically in the NBA, there are other teams creating pressure by being other bidders in the market. It's pretty rare for a player to be a FA (even a RFA) and have absolutely no market to create some time pressure on one side or the other.

I agree the fact they are apart by a lot isn't good FWIW. They're playing the world's slowest game of chicken at this point.

You seem to believe that on some magical date at the deadline the two sides will look at each other and say "OK, we both knew the number was 25 AAV all along", smile, shake hands and the deal is done. That isn't how negotiations work when two sides are this far apart.

I don't think they will magically agree to that. I think when they get to a point where time pressure grows, they will engage more fully, and because I think there likely is a deal to be made here, that once they both engage fully and are willing to move, that the deal will get done.

Fundamentally though, a key assumption I have is that there IS a deal to be made and that they DO overlap in what they will accept. That could be a faulty assumption. If it is, we will land on the QO.

The fact that the Bulls haven't made another offer this long after the opening offer being refused is just stupid. And it isn't in Giddey to come back. As I said in another post, teams make offers, not players. Players accept offers. Giddey told his employer he is looking for 30. His employer said 20 andc we aren't budging. Giddey said no. Do they want to re-hire the guy or not?

Who makes offers is irrelevant semantics. The Bulls made an offer, Giddey can make a counter offer. That's how negotiations generally work. It isn't just the Bulls increasing their offer until Giddey says yes. The Bulls can also come back with another offer too. Either side can trivially call the other and say we'd like to talk about this further and try to negotiate. Neither side is. When discussing salary at a job, a company makes me an offer. If I want more money, I don't say "no. I want more money". I would make a counter offer back about how much more I want.

If you want to be more mad at one side more than the other, I won't stop you though.

[sco]

There's still plenty of time, but the Bulls are seem like they're on the wrong side of this right now, and I don't see much reason for them to be.

I feel like the only parties the Bulls seem to be on the wrong side of with their offer is a subset of fans. I still gotta think that Giddey must have been expecting exactly how this negotiation is going...it was too obvious for his agent not to know how it would work. And their lack of response to date seems pretty textbook to me too.

Just because it's expected and obvious doesn't mean that's how it has to play out. Like, we all know what talking to a used car dealer or discussing your salary is like. But it's annoying, and part of what's so annoying you know it doesn't have to be pulling teeth. In good, respectful relationships between sensible people, these things often take care of themselves and you don't hear much about them at all. It's totally possible.

Some car dealers you walk into and they're like, here's the price, we don't really negotiate, and it's fine. Others are trying to hardball you and spin you in circles.

What I keep coming back to is which end of the spectrum are the Bulls on here? Right now, they're pretty annoying to deal with. Probably not so annoying that Giddey is going to just take the QO, but enough that they'll needlessly leave a bad taste in his mouth when they could've gotten to the same result in a less annoying fashion.

Some people and teams are just a chore to deal with.

I get why many fans feel the way you do, but I think fans are projecting their own discomfort with the continued uncertainty around a player they like. There hasn't really been any news that negotiations haven't been "ordinary" for this type of situation.

[MikeDC]

Some people and teams are just a chore to deal with.

I get why many fans feel the way you do, but I think fans are projecting their own discomfort with the continued uncertainty around a player they like. There hasn't really been any news that negotiations haven't been "ordinary" for this type of situation.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't think this is it for me. The truth is, I'm really not a fan of Giddey. I think he's probably going to put a pretty clear ceiling on this team. I don't like investing in players who can't be successful playoff players, and I have real trouble figuring out how you'd build a high level playoff team where he is a playing 30+MPG.

And, simultaneously, I'm a big fan of Coby. I think his game fits in anywhere because he's got gravity off the ball but also has utility as a guy who can set up the offense or get his own shot, though not at a #1 guy level). So he'd be valuable to have on a good playoff team.

But... here's the point... I think the Bulls probably should be looking to lock Giddey in at the obvious market rate ($22M or so). And if I understand things correctly, I think the Bulls should be moving pretty hard to trade Coby, because he's apparently already turned down the 4/$89M extension they could offer him, which already seems like the high end of his market value.

So the reality is, I don't really like Giddey much, but I want the Bulls to keep him (at the right price) and find the disconnect between how they say they value him (a lot) and how they're trying to sign him (under market) to be pretty weird. and kind of distasteful.

At the same time, I find it downright alarming that the Bulls execs are saying stuff like this

We probably can’t extend him, because the rules don’t allow for us to pay him enough,” a Bulls front office executive told Smith. “But we want Coby to be a Bull for a long time. He knows how we feel about him.”

Because even though I like Coby I don't think what they can offer him now is already on the high end of his value.

In the case of Giddey, they're being needlessly antagonistic. In the case of Coby, they're being needlessly player-friendly. This seems contradictory, but these very different outcomes are due to the same source, which is the fact that the Bulls org is very insular, not very good at evaluating talent, and not very consistent about executing the decisions they do make. They are confusing to fans and people around the league because they are, themselves, so often confused.

[MikeDC]

Just to wrap up that thought, what I'd argue for is strategic clarity and consistency for the Bulls, both in how they deal with player contracts and how they see themselves.
1. I'd install a blanket approach of saying to players, "I'm going to pay you the market rate. I'm not gonna try to screw you into a cheap deal at the bottom, but I'm not going to give you the high end based on speculation, hope, or some sense of misguided loyalty. I'm not looking for a hometown discount, but you're not getting a bonus either.

I'd contrast this approach to the Bulls current approach, which seems to sway between the extremes of completely giving in to player asks (Lavine, Vuc, Pat, Carter, Jalen Smith) that were regrettable the moment they were signed and playing hardball with guys when the suddenly realize that they have to make up for overpaying the guys they overpaid by squeezing it out of someone else (Lauri, Coby, Giddey, and the refusal to take back money to get the pick out of the DeMar S&T).

2. As I said in the last post, I'm not really a fan of Giddey, but from the strategic perspective, the downside of him on the lower end of his contract value (like 4/$90) is pretty low in my opinion. So I'd sign him because we can't afford to lose him and he'll likely be tradable on that deal going forward.

3. Because Coby has apparently turned down that deal, which I think is on the higher end of his value, I'd be looking to trade him. But, I also think his chances of actually getting a $30M/yr deal from anyone else next summer are vanishingly small. So if there are no good deals available, I think the Bulls second best option is to risk it and keep open that offer when he hits free agency. They shouldn't be talking his value up when they're mostly bidding against themselves though.

[sco]

Just to wrap up that thought, what I'd argue for is strategic clarity and consistency for the Bulls, both in how they deal with player contracts and how they see themselves.
1. I'd install a blanket approach of saying to players, "I'm going to pay you the market rate. I'm not gonna try to screw you into a cheap deal at the bottom, but I'm not going to give you the high end based on speculation, hope, or some sense of misguided loyalty. I'm not looking for a hometown discount, but you're not getting a bonus either.

I'd contrast this approach to the Bulls current approach, which seems to sway between the extremes of completely giving in to player asks (Lavine, Vuc, Pat, Carter, Jalen Smith) that were regrettable the moment they were signed and playing hardball with guys when the suddenly realize that they have to make up for overpaying the guys they overpaid by squeezing it out of someone else (Lauri, Coby, Giddey, and the refusal to take back money to get the pick out of the DeMar S&T).

2. As I said in the last post, I'm not really a fan of Giddey, but from the strategic perspective, the downside of him on the lower end of his contract value (like 4/$90) is pretty low in my opinion. So I'd sign him because we can't afford to lose him and he'll likely be tradable on that deal going forward.

3. Because Coby has apparently turned down that deal, which I think is on the higher end of his value, I'd be looking to trade him. But, I also think his chances of actually getting a $30M/yr deal from anyone else next summer are vanishingly small. So if there are no good deals available, I think the Bulls second best option is to risk it and keep open that offer when he hits free agency. They shouldn't be talking his value up when they're mostly bidding against themselves though.

I'm guessing that you're guessing what the FO is actually saying to players. But if you know, more power to you!

On Coby, I would imagine the Bulls offered him his max extension, which he should turn down. I agree that the Bulls should have traded him if the return was decent. IMO, AK views Coby as a core player, but the truth is, I feel Coby's defense, paired with Giddey's, makes Coby a tough player to keep as our future #1 or #2 option. IMO his value at the deadline will be pretty low given he'd be an expiring UFA at the end of the season. Maybe we get a non-lotto 1st, but IMO, that's probably not enough.