Josh Giddey 3.0

[Jcool0]

Just to wrap up that thought, what I'd argue for is strategic clarity and consistency for the Bulls, both in how they deal with player contracts and how they see themselves.
1. I'd install a blanket approach of saying to players, "I'm going to pay you the market rate. I'm not gonna try to screw you into a cheap deal at the bottom, but I'm not going to give you the high end based on speculation, hope, or some sense of misguided loyalty. I'm not looking for a hometown discount, but you're not getting a bonus either.

I'd contrast this approach to the Bulls current approach, which seems to sway between the extremes of completely giving in to player asks (Lavine, Vuc, Pat, Carter, Jalen Smith) that were regrettable the moment they were signed and playing hardball with guys when the suddenly realize that they have to make up for overpaying the guys they overpaid by squeezing it out of someone else (Lauri, Coby, Giddey, and the refusal to take back money to get the pick out of the DeMar S&T).

2. As I said in the last post, I'm not really a fan of Giddey, but from the strategic perspective, the downside of him on the lower end of his contract value (like 4/$90) is pretty low in my opinion. So I'd sign him because we can't afford to lose him and he'll likely be tradable on that deal going forward.

3. Because Coby has apparently turned down that deal, which I think is on the higher end of his value, I'd be looking to trade him. But, I also think his chances of actually getting a $30M/yr deal from anyone else next summer are vanishingly small. So if there are no good deals available, I think the Bulls second best option is to risk it and keep open that offer when he hits free agency. They shouldn't be talking his value up when they're mostly bidding against themselves though.

I'm guessing that you're guessing what the FO is actually saying to players. But if you know, more power to you!

On Coby, I would imagine the Bulls offered him his max extension, which he should turn down. I agree that the Bulls should have traded him if the return was decent. IMO, AK views Coby as a core player, but the truth is, I feel Coby's defense, paired with Giddey's, makes Coby a tough player to keep as our future #1 or #2 option. IMO his value at the deadline will be pretty low given he'd be an expiring UFA at the end of the season. Maybe we get a non-lotto 1st, but IMO, that's probably not enough.

Coby is only a 1 or 2 on the Bulls because they have no one else, unless Matas make a unexpected leap this year. Most team would have him coming off the bench, but since AK doesn't know what he is doing, he will probably sign him to a long term contract for way to much money expecting him to be something he isn't.

[dougthonus]

I'd contrast this approach to the Bulls current approach, which seems to sway between the extremes of completely giving in to player asks (Lavine, Vuc, Pat, Carter, Jalen Smith) that were regrettable the moment they were signed and playing hardball with guys when the suddenly realize that they have to make up for overpaying the guys they overpaid by squeezing it out of someone else (Lauri, Coby, Giddey, and the refusal to take back money to get the pick out of the DeMar S&T).

FWIW, they didn't try to squeeze Lauri or Coby. They didn't want Lauri so they traded him as soon as they could find an offer. They agreed to Coby at high end of market rate prior to FA starting.

To the extent they are trying to squeeze Giddey, he is the first player they have ever squeezed.

[sco]

Just to wrap up that thought, what I'd argue for is strategic clarity and consistency for the Bulls, both in how they deal with player contracts and how they see themselves.
1. I'd install a blanket approach of saying to players, "I'm going to pay you the market rate. I'm not gonna try to screw you into a cheap deal at the bottom, but I'm not going to give you the high end based on speculation, hope, or some sense of misguided loyalty. I'm not looking for a hometown discount, but you're not getting a bonus either.

I'd contrast this approach to the Bulls current approach, which seems to sway between the extremes of completely giving in to player asks (Lavine, Vuc, Pat, Carter, Jalen Smith) that were regrettable the moment they were signed and playing hardball with guys when the suddenly realize that they have to make up for overpaying the guys they overpaid by squeezing it out of someone else (Lauri, Coby, Giddey, and the refusal to take back money to get the pick out of the DeMar S&T).

2. As I said in the last post, I'm not really a fan of Giddey, but from the strategic perspective, the downside of him on the lower end of his contract value (like 4/$90) is pretty low in my opinion. So I'd sign him because we can't afford to lose him and he'll likely be tradable on that deal going forward.

3. Because Coby has apparently turned down that deal, which I think is on the higher end of his value, I'd be looking to trade him. But, I also think his chances of actually getting a $30M/yr deal from anyone else next summer are vanishingly small. So if there are no good deals available, I think the Bulls second best option is to risk it and keep open that offer when he hits free agency. They shouldn't be talking his value up when they're mostly bidding against themselves though.

I'm guessing that you're guessing what the FO is actually saying to players. But if you know, more power to you!

On Coby, I would imagine the Bulls offered him his max extension, which he should turn down. I agree that the Bulls should have traded him if the return was decent. IMO, AK views Coby as a core player, but the truth is, I feel Coby's defense, paired with Giddey's, makes Coby a tough player to keep as our future #1 or #2 option. IMO his value at the deadline will be pretty low given he'd be an expiring UFA at the end of the season. Maybe we get a non-lotto 1st, but IMO, that's probably not enough.

Coby is only a 1 or 2 on the Bulls because they have no one else, unless Matas make a unexpected leap this year. Most team would have him coming off the bench, but since AK doesn't know what he is doing, he will probably sign him to a long term contract for way to much money expecting him to be something he isn't.

Yeah, it's the problem with signing "good" players on bad teams.

[jnrjr79]

Give the recent posts on the topic here, I chuckled at seeing this in my Twitter feed today, regarding thr Terry McLaurin contract in Washington:

Read on Twitter

[Stratmaster]

There is no basis in fact for your content that most negotiating don't finalize until there is an event causing pressure.

It's extremely rare for a negotiation not to have time pressure built in, but I think it is definitely true that once you are at an impasse in a negotiation that is really important with big swings, that time pressure is the thing that usually resolves it. It's why most CBAs usually end up not making real traction when there is genuine disagreement until games are lost.

A "we will just offer an equidistant amount" is a horrible negotiation approach. The amount offered should be, as I said before, "aggressive but realistic".

Both sides may feel they have made aggressive but realistic offers. It's not for me to say. That's why there is a wide gap.

It is not normal for negotiations not to move. If you are that far apart, and not even having discussions to move closer, there is a problem.

It's not normal for there to be no time pressure for a negotiation to get done either. This is a really abnormal negotiation compared to most negotiations which both sides typically have a lot of time pressure to get things done. Ie, in your car example, the dealer has a lot of pressure to not let you leave, and depending on your situation you may have pressure to replace your vehicle right away.

Typically in the NBA, there are other teams creating pressure by being other bidders in the market. It's pretty rare for a player to be a FA (even a RFA) and have absolutely no market to create some time pressure on one side or the other.

I agree the fact they are apart by a lot isn't good FWIW. They're playing the world's slowest game of chicken at this point.

You seem to believe that on some magical date at the deadline the two sides will look at each other and say "OK, we both knew the number was 25 AAV all along", smile, shake hands and the deal is done. That isn't how negotiations work when two sides are this far apart.

I don't think they will magically agree to that. I think when they get to a point where time pressure grows, they will engage more fully, and because I think there likely is a deal to be made here, that once they both engage fully and are willing to move, that the deal will get done.

Fundamentally though, a key assumption I have is that there IS a deal to be made and that they DO overlap in what they will accept. That could be a faulty assumption. If it is, we will land on the QO.

The fact that the Bulls haven't made another offer this long after the opening offer being refused is just stupid. And it isn't in Giddey to come back. As I said in another post, teams make offers, not players. Players accept offers. Giddey told his employer he is looking for 30. His employer said 20 andc we aren't budging. Giddey said no. Do they want to re-hire the guy or not?

Who makes offers is irrelevant semantics. The Bulls made an offer, Giddey can make a counter offer. That's how negotiations generally work. It isn't just the Bulls increasing their offer until Giddey says yes. The Bulls can also come back with another offer too. Either side can trivially call the other and say we'd like to talk about this further and try to negotiate. Neither side is. When discussing salary at a job, a company makes me an offer. If I want more money, I don't say "no. I want more money". I would make a counter offer back about how much more I want.

If you want to be more mad at one side more than the other, I won't stop you though.

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug. The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers. What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly? How does that benefit the Bulls? It certainly isn't creating positive PR. despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office. It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

[jnrjr79]

There is no basis in fact for your content that most negotiating don't finalize until there is an event causing pressure.

It's extremely rare for a negotiation not to have time pressure built in, but I think it is definitely true that once you are at an impasse in a negotiation that is really important with big swings, that time pressure is the thing that usually resolves it. It's why most CBAs usually end up not making real traction when there is genuine disagreement until games are lost.

A "we will just offer an equidistant amount" is a horrible negotiation approach. The amount offered should be, as I said before, "aggressive but realistic".

Both sides may feel they have made aggressive but realistic offers. It's not for me to say. That's why there is a wide gap.

It is not normal for negotiations not to move. If you are that far apart, and not even having discussions to move closer, there is a problem.

It's not normal for there to be no time pressure for a negotiation to get done either. This is a really abnormal negotiation compared to most negotiations which both sides typically have a lot of time pressure to get things done. Ie, in your car example, the dealer has a lot of pressure to not let you leave, and depending on your situation you may have pressure to replace your vehicle right away.

Typically in the NBA, there are other teams creating pressure by being other bidders in the market. It's pretty rare for a player to be a FA (even a RFA) and have absolutely no market to create some time pressure on one side or the other.

I agree the fact they are apart by a lot isn't good FWIW. They're playing the world's slowest game of chicken at this point.

You seem to believe that on some magical date at the deadline the two sides will look at each other and say "OK, we both knew the number was 25 AAV all along", smile, shake hands and the deal is done. That isn't how negotiations work when two sides are this far apart.

I don't think they will magically agree to that. I think when they get to a point where time pressure grows, they will engage more fully, and because I think there likely is a deal to be made here, that once they both engage fully and are willing to move, that the deal will get done.

Fundamentally though, a key assumption I have is that there IS a deal to be made and that they DO overlap in what they will accept. That could be a faulty assumption. If it is, we will land on the QO.

The fact that the Bulls haven't made another offer this long after the opening offer being refused is just stupid. And it isn't in Giddey to come back. As I said in another post, teams make offers, not players. Players accept offers. Giddey told his employer he is looking for 30. His employer said 20 andc we aren't budging. Giddey said no. Do they want to re-hire the guy or not?

Who makes offers is irrelevant semantics. The Bulls made an offer, Giddey can make a counter offer. That's how negotiations generally work. It isn't just the Bulls increasing their offer until Giddey says yes. The Bulls can also come back with another offer too. Either side can trivially call the other and say we'd like to talk about this further and try to negotiate. Neither side is. When discussing salary at a job, a company makes me an offer. If I want more money, I don't say "no. I want more money". I would make a counter offer back about how much more I want.

If you want to be more mad at one side more than the other, I won't stop you though.

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug. The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers.

Players can make offers. Sometimes people refer to them as “demands” instead of offers, but that’s just semantics. Giddey’s “offer” of $30M has the same significance of the Bulls’ “offer” of $30M. Unlike the QO, which is an actual document that can be signed, whatever the Bulls have conveyed so far is just an informal description of the package they’d agree to. They won’t paper it until the terms are agreed.

What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly?

For the Bulls, the incentive is to try to lock Giddey into a lower number. For Giddey, the incentive is to see if something changes on the market that could get him a better number.

How does that benefit the Bulls?

By potentially locking in a player at a lower number, which in general is a good thing in a salary cap/luxury tax/aprons environment.

It certainly isn't creating positive PR.

It’s not creating negative PR, either. 99% of Bulls fans probably have no idea what is going on or don’t really care that it’s dragging on a while.

despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office.

Are there? Unless you mean fan-generated content as opposed actual basketball writers, that’s not what I’m seeing. Even guys who love to slam the organization like Joe Crowley have been writing articles like “ Bulls and guard Josh Giddey have time and a will to get deal done.”

It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

It’s not hurting the Bulls in recruiting, either. The idea that it would is pretty wild.

I can’t speak for Doug, but IMO there is not a mutual number that could easily be agreed on today, but that’s as the pressure ramps up with camp getting closer, they’ll get there. Part of that dynamic is I expect there are numbers the Bulls would match if a rival team signed Giddey to an offer sheet, but that’s the Bulls would not otherwise offer themselves.

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

I don’t know who moved most recently (did the Bulls offer and Giddey counter or vice-versa?), but the normal thing would be for the side whose “turn” it is to make a move to make a move. In that event that is Giddey, it makes total sense he’s not made a move, because he could potentially benefit as time passes and can just wait until 10/1 to get the Bulls’ best number. He has no incentive to sign for the Bulls’ best number now. In that environment, it’s unsurprising things are moving slowly.

As to the Bulls, if the ball is in their court, given that Giddey has potential upside in waiting, they’d probably have to come quite close to Giddey’s $30M number today to get a deal done. Otherwise, it’s in Giddey’s interest to say “well, I’ll think about it” and just kind of hang out and see whether any other teams with interest pop up.

[MikeDC]

It's worth pointing out that the Bulls waiting until the last minute to make an offer is itself an annoying, high-pressure negotiating ploy.
One that the Bulls almost always use.

The deadline creates pressure because teams want it to.

[dougthonus]

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug.

If there is any confusion, the vast majority of what I write is opinion. Almost everything you've said below and in response is opinion. I don't think either of us need to preface this with "in my opinion". I like to think we can realize what is opinion and fact mutually and save the verbosity.

The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers. What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly? How does that benefit the Bulls? It certainly isn't creating positive PR. despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office. It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

My speculative answer to your question and my counter question (which would be why is Giddey not more motivated to engage?) is that each side thinks they will get a better deal by waiting and that the other side will flinch, and the first mover will be at a negotiating disadvantage. I've previously seen some scientific evidence that there is truth to this, and whether or not that evidence is even valid, the fact that it existed one point probably means that a lot of people believe it even if it's not true and follow it as a playbook.

If you don't think the time pressure is a real thing, that's fine. I think it must be for both sides because it is explanative of what both sides are doing. Either side could move this forward by engaging, and this is why I think neither side is.

FWIW, I don't think it's important per se or makes one side more at fault than the other. I just think it explains what is happening better than anything else I can come up with.

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

I completely agree they should be negotiating with other teams too just to see what is out there in terms of compensation. It's stupid of them to close this door.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

Doubt we'll come to any further agreement on the fundamental point that you think the Bulls are more unreasonable than Giddey. I don't feel that way. Doesn't really matter. I hope we don't land on the QO, and don't think we will, but I do agree it's not great that things are where they are now.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug. The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers. What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly? How does that benefit the Bulls? It certainly isn't creating positive PR. despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office. It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

Isn't the 'incentive' simply that Giddey doesn't have a choice? It's either the qualifying offer, whatever the Bulls offer, or retire. Who cares about the PR? Does it make a difference? I'd argue that Giddey has produced plenty of negative PR and it's factoring into why no team actually wants him. I think the Bulls trading for him in the first place produced negative PR. I'd trade the guy for a bag of chips just based on my personal feeling, but I've moderated my view and the Bulls actually have an opportunity to sign a really good, team-friendly contract. We need those desperately. I don't think anyone is thinking about the public relations aspect of paying a zoomer $30,000,000 or $15,000,000 to play with a ball.

To your second paragraph, it seems like no team in the NBA believes this...they might've put in an offer sheet or offered some reasonably good players/draft capital for a S&T at some point, right? The Bulls might've received offers but don't want to trade him for pennies on the dollar. That seems like the correct strategy to me. Perhaps other teams did offer him a contract and he refused, now he doesn't have any options left.

The longer this situation plays out, the more it benefits the Bulls. All the pressure is on Giddey. I'm sure he doesn't want to take the QO, I can't actually list any players who have taken the QO in recent memory. Anyone know some? One in the hand is better than two in the bush or something.

[dougthonus]

The longer this situation plays out, the more it benefits the Bulls. All the pressure is on Giddey. I'm sure he doesn't want to take the QO, I can't actually list any players who have taken the QO in recent memory. Anyone know some? One in the hand is better than two in the bush or something.

According to my research the two most recent above MLE players that rejected above MLE deals to take the QO are:

Miles Bridges: (2023)
His situation was certainly unique given his value got massively depressed based on his domestic violence charges during his negotiation. Charlotte tried to leverage that against him into a 4/60 deal. He came back and had a great season and ended up singing 3/75, adding onto his QO of 1/7, he ended up with 4/82 and game out 22M ahead.

Nerlens Noel: (2017)
He famously rejected a 4/70 deal with the Mavericks, took the QO, ended up signing for the vet min after that, and sued his agent for bad advice.

It's really rare for a player to land on the QO because it generally requires one side to take an extremely distorted view of the market. Either the player needs to have an insane valuation of themselves (Noel) or the team has refuse to pay market value and also refuse to trade the player to a team that will for assets which is self defeating (if there is no trade available, then really you are in position one where the player's evaluation of themselves is absurd).

[_txchilibowl_]

The fact that no restricted free agents have signed a deal yet but this is somehow a uniquely Bulls problem is hilarious to me.

[dougthonus]

The fact that no restricted free agents have signed a deal yet but this is somehow a uniquely Bulls problem is hilarious to me.

Yeah, Kuminga is a weird case, because GS doesn't want him. Grimes, Thomas, and Giddey are all desired by their teams, but are at an impasse in negotiations, but no one views this as strictly a Bulls problem, and in my general NBA reading, no one really views it as a problem at all. Just an interesting market.

The only people I see calling it a Bulls problem are the Bulls blogosphere people that are trying to create news and takes when there is nothing going on.

[MikeDC]

One point to clarify is that Giddey can, in fact, refuse the QO.

If he does, he just remains an unsigned but restricted free agent.

That might not even be a bad strategy for him since it doesn’t lock him into the lower salary.

The reason it’s kind of a deadline is that once you go past Oct 1, the team can withdraw the QO, so theoretically the player could get nothing. Signing the QO is basically taking less so that you get your freedom in a year. But it doesn’t have to be done.

Not taking the QO is less of a nuclear option. You are saying you aren’t gonna nuke the Bulls, but you aren’t going to just play on a terrible deal either.

It would put pressure on the Bulls to up their offer together him in camp, but wouldn’t create the irrevocable problems for both sides that the QO causes.

[MikeDC]

It's really rare for a player to land on the QO because it generally requires one side to take an extremely distorted view of the market. Either the player needs to have an insane valuation of themselves (Noel) or the team has refuse to pay market value and also refuse to trade the player to a team that will for assets which is self defeating (if there is no trade available, then really you are in position one where the player's evaluation of themselves is absurd).

A common issue is that the team that wants to trade away the player has the unrealistic belief that it is going to get a windfall of assets back without taking back any money. But generally you have to take back money to make the trade work.

Obvious example of this is with Kuminga, where the Warriors don’t want to take back salary (Monk) even though they’d get a pick. That’s not realistic on the part of the Warriors but it’s not self defeating because the reality is they can’t afford to take on Monk’s money.

Generally, the Warriors have boxed themselves into a corner where they can’t afford to keep Kuminga and they can’t even really afford to trade him, so they’re just hoping for some kind of miracle.

Not RFA but the Bulls forgoing the pick from the Kings to not have to take back Harrison Barnes was a similarly understandable but stupid move. They should have just taken Barnes. Probably could have flipped him down the road anyway.

[League Circles]

One point to clarify is that Giddey can, in fact, refuse the QO.

If he does, he just remains an unsigned but restricted free agent.

That might not even be a bad strategy for him since it doesn’t lock him into the lower salary.

The reason it’s kind of a deadline is that once you go past Oct 1, the team can withdraw the QO, so theoretically the player could get nothing. Signing the QO is basically taking less so that you get your freedom in a year. But it doesn’t have to be done.

Not taking the QO is less of a nuclear option. You are saying you aren’t gonna nuke the Bulls, but you aren’t going to just play on a terrible deal either.

It would put pressure on the Bulls to up their offer together him in camp, but wouldn’t create the irrevocable problems for both sides that the QO causes.

I can't imagine this working for Giddey. The Bulls don't need him this year, but if he sat out the year he'd severely hurt his value just to still be an RFA indefinitely. Now if the Bulls were really trying to win this year, not taking the QO might be a risk worth taking for him, cause we'd want to increase our offer to get him on the court. But the Bulls can wait him out.

[Stratmaster]

It's extremely rare for a negotiation not to have time pressure built in, but I think it is definitely true that once you are at an impasse in a negotiation that is really important with big swings, that time pressure is the thing that usually resolves it. It's why most CBAs usually end up not making real traction when there is genuine disagreement until games are lost.



Both sides may feel they have made aggressive but realistic offers. It's not for me to say. That's why there is a wide gap.



It's not normal for there to be no time pressure for a negotiation to get done either. This is a really abnormal negotiation compared to most negotiations which both sides typically have a lot of time pressure to get things done. Ie, in your car example, the dealer has a lot of pressure to not let you leave, and depending on your situation you may have pressure to replace your vehicle right away.

Typically in the NBA, there are other teams creating pressure by being other bidders in the market. It's pretty rare for a player to be a FA (even a RFA) and have absolutely no market to create some time pressure on one side or the other.

I agree the fact they are apart by a lot isn't good FWIW. They're playing the world's slowest game of chicken at this point.



I don't think they will magically agree to that. I think when they get to a point where time pressure grows, they will engage more fully, and because I think there likely is a deal to be made here, that once they both engage fully and are willing to move, that the deal will get done.

Fundamentally though, a key assumption I have is that there IS a deal to be made and that they DO overlap in what they will accept. That could be a faulty assumption. If it is, we will land on the QO.



Who makes offers is irrelevant semantics. The Bulls made an offer, Giddey can make a counter offer. That's how negotiations generally work. It isn't just the Bulls increasing their offer until Giddey says yes. The Bulls can also come back with another offer too. Either side can trivially call the other and say we'd like to talk about this further and try to negotiate. Neither side is. When discussing salary at a job, a company makes me an offer. If I want more money, I don't say "no. I want more money". I would make a counter offer back about how much more I want.

If you want to be more mad at one side more than the other, I won't stop you though.

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug. The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers.

Players can make offers. Sometimes people refer to them as “demands” instead of offers, but that’s just semantics. Giddey’s “offer” of $30M has the same significance of the Bulls’ “offer” of $30M. Unlike the QO, which is an actual document that can be signed, whatever the Bulls have conveyed so far is just an informal description of the package they’d agree to. They won’t paper it until the terms are agreed.

What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly?

For the Bulls, the incentive is to try to lock Giddey into a lower number. For Giddey, the incentive is to see if something changes on the market that could get him a better number.

How does that benefit the Bulls?

By potentially locking in a player at a lower number, which in general is a good thing in a salary cap/luxury tax/aprons environment.

It certainly isn't creating positive PR.

It’s not creating negative PR, either. 99% of Bulls fans probably have no idea what is going on or don’t really care that it’s dragging on a while.

despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office.

Are there? Unless you mean fan-generated content as opposed actual basketball writers, that’s not what I’m seeing. Even guys who love to slam the organization like Joe Crowley have been writing articles like “ Bulls and guard Josh Giddey have time and a will to get deal done.”

It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

It’s not hurting the Bulls in recruiting, either. The idea that it would is pretty wild.

I can’t speak for Doug, but IMO there is not a mutual number that could easily be agreed on today, but that’s as the pressure ramps up with camp getting closer, they’ll get there. Part of that dynamic is I expect there are numbers the Bulls would match if a rival team signed Giddey to an offer sheet, but that’s the Bulls would not otherwise offer themselves.

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

I don’t know who moved most recently (did the Bulls offer and Giddey counter or vice-versa?), but the normal thing would be for the side whose “turn” it is to make a move to make a move. In that event that is Giddey, it makes total sense he’s not made a move, because he could potentially benefit as time passes and can just wait until 10/1 to get the Bulls’ best number. He has no incentive to sign for the Bulls’ best number now. In that environment, it’s unsurprising things are moving slowly.

As to the Bulls, if the ball is in their court, given that Giddey has potential upside in waiting, they’d probably have to come quite close to Giddey’s $30M number today to get a deal done. Otherwise, it’s in Giddey’s interest to say “well, I’ll think about it” and just kind of hang out and see whether any other teams with interest pop up.

You will argue anything, won't you? lol. So, when the terms are agreed, who will be placing an offer on the table to be signed? The team? Or Josh Giddey. If you are getting new employment, do you write up the details for the employer to sign, or vice versa? As I said to Doug, I never said this was a major point. I just said it should be noted, and it does tie into your comment about it being Josh Giddey's "turn". That is just silly. The Bulls reportedly put an offer on the table. Josh Giddey answered. He said no and said he wants 30 million. It isn't as if either side is unaware of what the other is seeking.

And you also state a lot of opinions and personal perceptions as if they are facts.

How does waiting help the Bulls get Giddey for a lower amount? Giddey has a number in mind that must be met. We don't know what that is but if he and his agent don't, then we have another, new, problem.

I don't know what you are seeing when you Google "Josh Giddey news". It is absolutely creating negative PR. The 99% number you refer to is proof that 99% of statistics are just made up. Check out any of the other message boards. Check out the internet podcasters. Your perception that fans think the Bulls are doing this properly, or don't care, is absolutely and completely incorrect. Even the writers are beginning to express concern. David Haugh and the other Bulls "insider" were saying it is time to begin worrying.

We agree there is no mutual number. If the two sides aren't talking, how do they get to that? I am absolutely NOT saying they won't. I am saying it is absolutely STUPID the Bulls aren't trying to initiate discussions to get it resolved. Again, there is no magical date where some previously unacceptable offer is going to become acceptable. The Bulls are crapping the bed. They may, or may not, get burned for it.

As far as Giddey waiting for something to pop up. What would that be? The Bulls have refused to discuss sign and trades and no one has the money to pay him outright. The only thing that could happen is the Bulls and Giddey can't come to terms and the Bulls realize they need to get a sign and trade done at the last minute. How do you think that would turn out for the Bulls? It is far more likely that Giddey is prepared to take a very short term deal for somewhere around 20 mil AAV if the Bulls are willing or play on the QO for a season. Or just not play at all to start the season.

There isn't a single positive outcome I can see for the Bulls waiting until the last minute to come to terms. It is pure incompetence.

Again, I expect it to get resolved. It is still complete incompetence to handle it the way the Bulls have handled it.

[Stratmaster]

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug. The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers. What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly? How does that benefit the Bulls? It certainly isn't creating positive PR. despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office. It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

Isn't the 'incentive' simply that Giddey doesn't have a choice? It's either the qualifying offer, whatever the Bulls offer, or retire. Who cares about the PR? Does it make a difference? I'd argue that Giddey has produced plenty of negative PR and it's factoring into why no team actually wants him. I think the Bulls trading for him in the first place produced negative PR. I'd trade the guy for a bag of chips just based on my personal feeling, but I've moderated my view and the Bulls actually have an opportunity to sign a really good, team-friendly contract. We need those desperately. I don't think anyone is thinking about the public relations aspect of paying a zoomer $30,000,000 or $15,000,000 to play with a ball.

To your second paragraph, it seems like no team in the NBA believes this...they might've put in an offer sheet or offered some reasonably good players/draft capital for a S&T at some point, right? The Bulls might've received offers but don't want to trade him for pennies on the dollar. That seems like the correct strategy to me. Perhaps other teams did offer him a contract and he refused, now he doesn't have any options left.

The longer this situation plays out, the more it benefits the Bulls. All the pressure is on Giddey. I'm sure he doesn't want to take the QO, I can't actually list any players who have taken the QO in recent memory. Anyone know some? One in the hand is better than two in the bush or something.

1. You said Giddey doesn't have a choice, and then stated what his choices are. And you didn't list them all. He doesn't have to retire to sit out the start of the season.

2. Who cares about the PR? Do you really think NBA teams don't care about the PR? It is a PR based business. Your thought that PR with fans, and or players, isn't important is pretty far out there.

3. The reports are that "several" teams inquired about a sign and trade. The Bulls refused to discuss it. The word several generally indicates more than 3. It can't ever get to an offer stage when the Bulls position is (as reported) "we will not sign and trade Giddey. He is a long term piece".

4. There is some number at which Giddey will take the QO. If the bulls don't come up from 20 mil I fully expect him to take the QO. But that is just an opinion. I would take 8 mil less for one season to make 8 mil more each of the following 4 or 5. It isn't like $11.x million is difficult to live on for a year.

I disagree that the longer it plays out the more it benefits the Bulls. Giddey always has the QO option, or just (highly unlikely) holding out. The longer it plays out, the more pressure on the bulls. Giddey taking the QO would cement them as the worst front office to ever run a team. Stuck with a guy who will be gone next year. All of their stated team building goals blown up.

The one thing in your comment that makes sense is you said you would trade him for a bag of chips. Once you say that, nothing else really is of any value to consider.

[Stratmaster]

The fact that no restricted free agents have signed a deal yet but this is somehow a uniquely Bulls problem is hilarious to me.

The fact that the Bulls front office has been historically incompetent at any contract negotiation, and is continuing that legacy with this one, is hilarious to me. And it accounts for why I and other people are laughing at them.

the fact that some posters here who have constantly bashed the front office are now defending them because they are playing some kind of Chicago meathead tough guy game with Josh Giddey is hilarious to me.

[jnrjr79]

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug. The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers.

Players can make offers. Sometimes people refer to them as “demands” instead of offers, but that’s just semantics. Giddey’s “offer” of $30M has the same significance of the Bulls’ “offer” of $30M. Unlike the QO, which is an actual document that can be signed, whatever the Bulls have conveyed so far is just an informal description of the package they’d agree to. They won’t paper it until the terms are agreed.

What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly?

For the Bulls, the incentive is to try to lock Giddey into a lower number. For Giddey, the incentive is to see if something changes on the market that could get him a better number.

How does that benefit the Bulls?

By potentially locking in a player at a lower number, which in general is a good thing in a salary cap/luxury tax/aprons environment.

It certainly isn't creating positive PR.

It’s not creating negative PR, either. 99% of Bulls fans probably have no idea what is going on or don’t really care that it’s dragging on a while.

despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office.

Are there? Unless you mean fan-generated content as opposed actual basketball writers, that’s not what I’m seeing. Even guys who love to slam the organization like Joe Crowley have been writing articles like “ Bulls and guard Josh Giddey have time and a will to get deal done.”

It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

It’s not hurting the Bulls in recruiting, either. The idea that it would is pretty wild.

I can’t speak for Doug, but IMO there is not a mutual number that could easily be agreed on today, but that’s as the pressure ramps up with camp getting closer, they’ll get there. Part of that dynamic is I expect there are numbers the Bulls would match if a rival team signed Giddey to an offer sheet, but that’s the Bulls would not otherwise offer themselves.

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

I don’t know who moved most recently (did the Bulls offer and Giddey counter or vice-versa?), but the normal thing would be for the side whose “turn” it is to make a move to make a move. In that event that is Giddey, it makes total sense he’s not made a move, because he could potentially benefit as time passes and can just wait until 10/1 to get the Bulls’ best number. He has no incentive to sign for the Bulls’ best number now. In that environment, it’s unsurprising things are moving slowly.

As to the Bulls, if the ball is in their court, given that Giddey has potential upside in waiting, they’d probably have to come quite close to Giddey’s $30M number today to get a deal done. Otherwise, it’s in Giddey’s interest to say “well, I’ll think about it” and just kind of hang out and see whether any other teams with interest pop up.

You will argue anything, won't you? lol. So, when the terms are agreed, who will be placing an offer on the table to be signed? The team? Or Josh Giddey. If you are getting new employment, do you write up the details for the employer to sign, or vice versa? As I said to Doug, I never said this was a major point. I just said it should be noted, and it does tie into your comment about it being Josh Giddey's "turn". That is just silly. The Bulls reportedly put an offer on the table. Josh Giddey answered. He said no and said he wants 30 million. It isn't as if either side is unaware of what the other is seeking.

So I guess you admit you were incorrect on this one, but are annoyed I was arguing it? Fair enough.

As to your purported timeline, we actually do not know whether the Bulls offer or Giddey's offer (or demand or whatever you want to call it) happened first and whose turn it is.

And you also state a lot of opinions and personal perceptions as if they are facts.
[/quote[

Said the pot to the kettle.

How does waiting help the Bulls get Giddey for a lower amount? Giddey has a number in mind that must be met. We don't know what that is but if he and his agent don't, then we have another, new, problem.

Hey look, it's someone stating an opinion and personal perceptions as if they are facts!

We don't know that Giddey has a "number in mind that must be met," and in any event, people do change their positions during negotiations. I can't tell you how many times in life I've seen someone accept a lower number than was their supposed bottom line. It wouldn't shock me at all if Giddey had some supposed drop-dead number in mind some months ago and he ultimately agrees to take less. I do agree that though his bottom line may get revised over time, there will always be some bottom line, but it's not necessarily static.

I don't know what you are seeing when you Google "Josh Giddey news". It is absolutely creating negative PR. The 99% number you refer to is proof that 99% of statistics are just made up. Check out any of the other message boards. Check out the internet podcasters. Your perception that fans think the Bulls are doing this properly, or don't care, is absolutely and completely incorrect. Even the writers are beginning to express concern. David Haugh and the other Bulls "insider" were saying it is time to begin worrying.

When I Google "Josh Giddey news" the first result is an article titled "Josh Giddey overreaction is everything wrong with Bulls discourse." The subhead is "Trading for Giddey was by no means a bad move." And the article references a Jake Fischer report that the Bulls and Giddey are likely to sit down to make progress on the deal after Labor Day. Literally not a single result when I Google it is an article blasting the Bulls for their negotiating position.

As to message boards and podcasters, you're making my point for me. Only super die hard people who would post on message boards or listen to Bulls podcasts are concerned about this. I have a lot of casual Bulls fans - they watch some games, go to a couple a year, etc. - and if you asked them, they'd just be vaguely aware that Giddey and the Bulls are negotiating. The fanbase writ large is not going to be super plugged in to this stuff.

We agree there is no mutual number. If the two sides aren't talking, how do they get to that? I am absolutely NOT saying they won't. I am saying it is absolutely STUPID the Bulls aren't trying to initiate discussions to get it resolved. Again, there is no magical date where some previously unacceptable offer is going to become acceptable. The Bulls are crapping the bed. They may, or may not, get burned for it.

They get to the mutual number by resuming negotiations.

The Bulls are not "crapping the bed" and this is so silly I don't even know what to say about it. This is completely de riguer as to how contract negotiations go. Heck, the fact that none of the other RFAs have signed, either, helps demonstrate this.

As far as Giddey waiting for something to pop up. What would that be?

It doesn't matter if the chances are remote of something happening (a team clearing cap space or making a compelling S&T offer). The fact that there is any chance of this happening makes it in Giddey's interest to wait.

The Bulls have refused to discuss sign and trades and no one has the money to pay him outright.

So what? It is not uncommon for teams to declare they won't trade a guy and then reverse course.

The only thing that could happen is the Bulls and Giddey can't come to terms and the Bulls realize they need to get a sign and trade done at the last minute. How do you think that would turn out for the Bulls?

I don't know what "the last minute" means here when there's still more than a month before the QO deadline.

I think a S&T would go fine for the Bulls. I don't prefer that option, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.

It is far more likely that Giddey is prepared to take a very short term deal for somewhere around 20 mil AAV if the Bulls are willing or play on the QO for a season. Or just not play at all to start the season.

For someone who seems to be agitated at others expressing opinions, you sure do express a lot of opinions about what Giddey will do. In any event, I think all of these scenarios are less likely than a 3+ year deal getting worked out. And yes, that's my opinion.

There isn't a single positive outcome I can see for the Bulls waiting until the last minute to come to terms. It is pure incompetence.

Well, I mean, this is just obviously false. The "single positive outcome" would be the Bulls getting Giddey on a more favorable deal.

Again, I expect it to get resolved. It is still complete incompetence to handle it the way the Bulls have handled it.

IMO, this appears to be the first competent contact negotiation AK has had in some time. It's refreshing!

[jnrjr79]

You keep giving opinions as if they are facts Doug. The whole time pressure thing is more trivial than the fact that players can't officially make offers. What is the incentive NOT to resolve this quickly? How does that benefit the Bulls? It certainly isn't creating positive PR. despite what you think or how credible you think they are most the articles out there right now are trashing the Bulls front office. It certainly doesn't help the Bulls attract other players or make their existing players feel more comfortable with the organization. What, exactly, do you think they are gaining by doing this? Especially if you really believe there is a mutual number out there that could be easily agreed on?

The Bulls can "feel" however they want to about their offer. Only people who don't believe Giddey can perform at a high level as the future PG think it is reasonable. If that's the case, they should have negotiated a sign and trade and moved on.

It isn't a huge point that players don't make offers. I just said it should be noted. Ther first offer is rejected. Giddey can't pay himself. Certainly Giddey could say "how about 28.5 mil?". That would be foolish, and horrible negotiating skills, to acknowledge such a low offer by countering it. The correct response is "when you get serious put a real offer on the table". It appears that is exactly what his agent has done. Very, very similar to the personal situation I just had, although I will say again that personal situation has nothing to do with Josh Giddey or NBA contract negotiations. I simply realized how similar it was as we were discussing the "equidistant" bargaining approach.

Isn't the 'incentive' simply that Giddey doesn't have a choice? It's either the qualifying offer, whatever the Bulls offer, or retire. Who cares about the PR? Does it make a difference? I'd argue that Giddey has produced plenty of negative PR and it's factoring into why no team actually wants him. I think the Bulls trading for him in the first place produced negative PR. I'd trade the guy for a bag of chips just based on my personal feeling, but I've moderated my view and the Bulls actually have an opportunity to sign a really good, team-friendly contract. We need those desperately. I don't think anyone is thinking about the public relations aspect of paying a zoomer $30,000,000 or $15,000,000 to play with a ball.

To your second paragraph, it seems like no team in the NBA believes this...they might've put in an offer sheet or offered some reasonably good players/draft capital for a S&T at some point, right? The Bulls might've received offers but don't want to trade him for pennies on the dollar. That seems like the correct strategy to me. Perhaps other teams did offer him a contract and he refused, now he doesn't have any options left.

The longer this situation plays out, the more it benefits the Bulls. All the pressure is on Giddey. I'm sure he doesn't want to take the QO, I can't actually list any players who have taken the QO in recent memory. Anyone know some? One in the hand is better than two in the bush or something.

1. You said Giddey doesn't have a choice, and then stated what his choices are. And you didn't list them all. He doesn't have to retire to sit out the start of the season.

2. Who cares about the PR? Do you really think NBA teams don't care about the PR? It is a PR based business. Your thought that PR with fans, and or players, isn't important is pretty far out there.

3. The reports are that "several" teams inquired about a sign and trade. The Bulls refused to discuss it. The word several generally indicates more than 3. It can't ever get to an offer stage when the Bulls position is (as reported) "we will not sign and trade Giddey. He is a long term piece".

4. There is some number at which Giddey will take the QO. If the bulls don't come up from 20 mil I fully expect him to take the QO. But that is just an opinion. I would take 8 mil less for one season to make 8 mil more each of the following 4 or 5. It isn't like $11.x million is difficult to live on for a year.

I disagree that the longer it plays out the more it benefits the Bulls. Giddey always has the QO option, or just (highly unlikely) holding out. The longer it plays out, the more pressure on the bulls. Giddey taking the QO would cement them as the worst front office to ever run a team. Stuck with a guy who will be gone next year. All of their stated team building goals blown up.

The one thing in your comment that makes sense is you said you would trade him for a bag of chips. Once you say that, nothing else really is of any value to consider.

Even if Giddey plays on the QO (which I would like to avoid, but just discussing it here), it doesn't mean he won't be back. Jimmy Butler did the whole "bet on himself" thing and turned down the Bulls' $44 million extension offer and was rewarded with a max contract after he had an awesome year.

Even if Giddey becomes a UFA, at the moment, there are only eight teas projected to have cap space next year, and one of them is the Bulls. Who knows whether any of those teams would offer a huge number to Giddey.