Fisher: Raptors are still shopping RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley

[YogurtProducer]

And the assumption that he can play 35mpg makes little sense to me. There are 25 players in the league who play 35mpg. Barnes led our team at 33mpg. So we’ve got a guy who hasn’t had the best health record and we’ve got a coach who isn’t running guys into the ground (like Nurse was). There just aren’t many guys playing 35mpg anymore.

In 2023-24 pre trade, we had Siakam and Barnes both playing 35mpg. Barrett and IQ both played 33mpg post trade. What we had last year when we were obviously tanking isn't really relevant to what we will do going forward.

My prediction on what IQ will give us is based on a variety of factors yet and I threw out what I “think” IQ will average and not what he “can” average (under absolutely ideal conditions like him playing 35mpg and being the clear #2 option).

I don’t really rank IQ much different than Yogurt. I just don’t think he’ll play the minutes or get the touches to make a big leap in his counting stats.

And I mean fair enough, but he certainly IS going to play 33+mpg at a minimum, and he likely will get the touches as well. Ingram coming in will soak up a bunch, but Barnes is all but a lock to see a decrease, as is Dick and likely RJ as well.

Like last year we had (per 36 just to even them out), RJ taking 18.9FGA, Scottie 17.9, and IQ 17.2. The "type" of possessions Ingram is going to soak up are the Barrett and Scottie ones. Ingram is not coming in and shooting a high volume of 3's. IQ's shots are not the type of shots we even have the abilit to replace with Ingram, it is RJ's and Barnes.

But FWIW - we have bench depth, but we don't really have bench scoring. I really wouldn't be surprised if at yearend our teams PPG goes like

Ingram - 22ppg
Quickley - 20ppg
Barrett - 20ppg
Barnes -16ppg
Jakob - 14ppg

and then our bench guys all being sub 10ppg cause no one off the bench is going to really play more than 14-18mpg anyways. AND, we don't have any obvious "bench gunners" outside MAYBE Dick. Most likely, we always have 2 of IQ/RJ/Scottie/Ingram on the floor being the #1/2 guys offensively.

Wait? You don’t think any of our bench guys are going to play more than 18mpg?

Without fail, year in and year out we have had at least 2 players come off the bench and play 18mpg+, and that’s only counting games where they came off the bench.

I just do not agree with your minutes distribution assessment here. Even OKC, an incredibly deep team, had 4 bench players playing more than 20mpg last season.

I really don't see a world in which our 5 starters are not all playing 30+mpg, and we have to many backups who are pretty limited to 1 position and won't be filling in multiple places

OKC was also winning 68 games and blowing teams out and resting guys in 4th a lot. Not to mention, they had much better depth, depth that was so good that they could justify splitting Dort and Caruso on a 29/19 type minute split. Do you really see us playing IQ 29 minutes so we can play Shead 19? I simply just do not.

Now obviously injuries will occur, so for season long averages some bench guys will play north of 20mpg, but with a fully healthy starting 5 they just wont. Just for an exercise, what do you think the starters will play?

IQ - 32mpg - conservative IMO as it could be 33/34 but for arguments sake, lets use 32. (He did play 33 in 2023/24 when he was healthy)
RJ - 32mpg - has been at 32-33mpg since he got here. No reason to think it will change.
Ingram - 33mpg - is what he has averaged in his career. Assuming it will be similar.
Barnes - 35mpg - is what he played first 3 years, including under Darko. Seems like a fair guess for a team who is actually trying.
Poeltl - 30mpg - Just based on what he played last year. We don't have very good center depth, so likely he is not going to see any decrease.

That leaves a whopping 78 minutes to split between Shead/Agbaji/Dick/Walter/Battle/CMB/Mogbo/Manu. I can't see any one player here surpassing the others so greatly that they are playing 20+mpg on a fully healthy roster.

[JB7]

I have no issue with RJ and IQ as players. Where we went wrong is Masai’s wishful thinking contract he paid IQ. He paid him straight away, un-forced, to be the player he needed him to turn out to be, not what he had shown to deserve. It’s alot easier to get a guy to sign by overpaying him but in doing so we severely increased our exposure. It may be that the ideal role for IQ was what he was in NYK - 6th man scorer. I like the spirit he plays with and the above the break 3’s. I think he not durable and not a quick attacking guy, not a great defender and maybe a more natural SG than a PG.

With RJ - I mean look how much better Knicks got - you think they’re missing him? He’s not what we need, we’re what he needed, a team willing to overhype him and pretend like his hype coming into the league was warranted. And we been trying to trade and we still can’t. His contract was widely considered negative value. We laughed at that like it was a joke, he score we lost, we want to trade him and we can’t because it was true, that his contract had negative value. He’s another guy who should probably come off the bench, but I’m scared we end accommodating him to our own detriment.

I don’t really have much faith in Gradey or see the path for him to get minutes and development. Like, was the defensive focus thing just short term pr for summer league- because the defense is crap if teams can just target Gradey, so there goes 2nd unit - and with IQ, RJ, and BI in the line up the starting line up, it won’t be good defensively either.

CMB, JaKobe, Shead all need time to develop. But add Ochai and Mamu and we’re at 11 players in the rotation and to me, that’s too many to develop.

A lot of those guys are supposed to be the prize payoff after the pain of our rebuild, but we should shut up and just praise Masai for overpaying BI because it feels like the nice thing to do? We tanked for CMB, JaKobe, Gradey and were ready to compete now? Does that make any sense?

Like - I remember the I’m going for 9th memes - and whatever Colangelo offering I’ll double it’

Yet - we celebrate it now?

There’s a chance if this team show some special chemistry and character and has an all pieces fit synergy like the PPat Grevious squads.

We raised a banner off smart tough player, creative coaching, and a really good defense that played guys who could do what was asked. That was a enoug to stay relevant long enough to have a big swing make full
Contact and hit one out of the park - and we seem to be in suck a rush to forget about all that. I was pleased after Scottie’s first year - haven’t been impressed by his development since. The third year stuff - was gone in year 4. I think he needed tougher leadership and instead we bent over backwards to get any of that out of his way. Well Masai did. I hope Bobby takes a different tact.

It may be in our situation trading Scottie for a nice haul is the bast path forward with how poorly the tank went. They patience has been burned - and for a team that admits or claims or benefits from the idea they tried to lose- they sure did a really poor job.
we were being out coached to wins against garbage teams.

Philly pissed me off - but at least for their fans they really did put them in a position to compete and when that went to crap - they still out tanked us. Daryl had our cake and ate it too. We had one goal - all year, and ended picking 9th, And wondered if 15 mil (plus over 40 mil incentives) didn’t get a new contract because of racism. I hate Maga and that element of the US - but I don’t think all other non Toronto media is hate fest for the Raps- or really question why other pres candidates thought this team may need to keep rebuilding or start over.

Jays been a joy to watch lately.

Glass is half empty comments I see.

Wait until you see the team actually try to win this season. The last two seasons have had them outright tanking for significant portions of the season, so it is difficult to judge the players and team in that setting.

[JB7]

In 2023-24 pre trade, we had Siakam and Barnes both playing 35mpg. Barrett and IQ both played 33mpg post trade. What we had last year when we were obviously tanking isn't really relevant to what we will do going forward.


And I mean fair enough, but he certainly IS going to play 33+mpg at a minimum, and he likely will get the touches as well. Ingram coming in will soak up a bunch, but Barnes is all but a lock to see a decrease, as is Dick and likely RJ as well.

Like last year we had (per 36 just to even them out), RJ taking 18.9FGA, Scottie 17.9, and IQ 17.2. The "type" of possessions Ingram is going to soak up are the Barrett and Scottie ones. Ingram is not coming in and shooting a high volume of 3's. IQ's shots are not the type of shots we even have the abilit to replace with Ingram, it is RJ's and Barnes.

But FWIW - we have bench depth, but we don't really have bench scoring. I really wouldn't be surprised if at yearend our teams PPG goes like

Ingram - 22ppg
Quickley - 20ppg
Barrett - 20ppg
Barnes -16ppg
Jakob - 14ppg

and then our bench guys all being sub 10ppg cause no one off the bench is going to really play more than 14-18mpg anyways. AND, we don't have any obvious "bench gunners" outside MAYBE Dick. Most likely, we always have 2 of IQ/RJ/Scottie/Ingram on the floor being the #1/2 guys offensively.

Wait? You don’t think any of our bench guys are going to play more than 18mpg?

Without fail, year in and year out we have had at least 2 players come off the bench and play 18mpg+, and that’s only counting games where they came off the bench.

I just do not agree with your minutes distribution assessment here. Even OKC, an incredibly deep team, had 4 bench players playing more than 20mpg last season.

I really don't see a world in which our 5 starters are not all playing 30+mpg, and we have to many backups who are pretty limited to 1 position and won't be filling in multiple places

OKC was also winning 68 games and blowing teams out and resting guys in 4th a lot. Not to mention, they had much better depth, depth that was so good that they could justify splitting Dort and Caruso on a 29/19 type minute split. Do you really see us playing IQ 29 minutes so we can play Shead 19? I simply just do not.

Now obviously injuries will occur, so for season long averages some bench guys will play north of 20mpg, but with a fully healthy starting 5 they just wont. Just for an exercise, what do you think the starters will play?

IQ - 32mpg - conservative IMO as it could be 33/34 but for arguments sake, lets use 32. (He did play 33 in 2023/24 when he was healthy)
RJ - 32mpg - has been at 32-33mpg since he got here. No reason to think it will change.
Ingram - 33mpg - is what he has averaged in his career. Assuming it will be similar.
Barnes - 35mpg - is what he played first 3 years, including under Darko. Seems like a fair guess for a team who is actually trying.
Poeltl - 30mpg - Just based on what he played last year. We don't have very good center depth, so likely he is not going to see any decrease.

That leaves a whopping 78 minutes to split between Shead/Agbaji/Dick/Walter/Battle/CMB/Mogbo/Manu. I can't see any one player here surpassing the others so greatly that they are playing 20+mpg on a fully healthy roster.

I would expect the starters will average near their historical averages. Considering they are all in their primes, no reason to see significant drops in average minutes played. Where the bench players will get significant minutes will be in the games the starters miss. That is how the rest will come for the starters, as I expect all of the starters to miss, or be held out of at least 10 games each, if not more in some cases, for load management reasons. The bench players will play significantly more minutes in those games that will drive up their season averages.

[YogurtProducer]

I have no issue with RJ and IQ as players. Where we went wrong is Masai’s wishful thinking contract he paid IQ. He paid him straight away, un-forced, to be the player he needed him to turn out to be, not what he had shown to deserve. It’s alot easier to get a guy to sign by overpaying him but in doing so we severely increased our exposure.

I mean, we didn't really overpay, and we locked him up for 5 years on a bet that by the end of the deal it is a value. I am sure we could have gotten IQ to sign up for less $, but it likely meant less years so he could get into free agency again. There are two sides to a negotiation, and we opted to gamble a bit in the hopes it pays off long term. He is 12 months into a deal in which he was hurt. IT is is hard to really evaluate it yet.

I think he not durable and not a quick attacking guy, not a great defender and maybe a more natural SG than a PG.

He has been incredibly durable over his career, and was known as an above average defender in New York. I don't think our low sample size of watching him on tanking teams / or during an oft-injured (outlier) season is really enough to make any of these claims.

[YogurtProducer]

I would expect the starters will average near their historical averages. Considering they are all in their primes, no reason to see significant drops in average minutes played. Where the bench players will get significant minutes will be in the games the starters miss. That is how the rest will come for the starters, as I expect all of the starters to miss, or be held out of at least 10 games each, if not more in some cases, for load management reasons. The bench players will play significantly more minutes in those games that will drive up their season averages.

I agree, albeit IQ/Poeltl I think will be higher than historical averages.

But my comment about bench guys not playing more than 14-18mpg was definitely when we are healthy. Over the course of a season when they step in for injuries it'll obviously be higher. I didn't think I had to make that clear.

[tsherkin]

It wasn't a half season though, only 32 games and a 3 point shooting sample size of 120 attempts. He shot 47 of 120 on 3s, if he misses even 5 more of those he's right around his career of 35% and below league average. This past season he was back down at 35% on 3s so it's likely that was just a few months of slightly hot shooting, we did discuss this at the time and no one thought we were getting a 39-40% 3 point shooter out of him long term, but then we also thought his FT% would come back up and it hasn't.

Depends on where he's taking them from. RJ is a career 37.0% shooter from the corners, and has shot 40%+ from the corners in 3 different seasons. He's also just done it in consecutive seasons for the first time. And in 2024, he was 38.8% from the corners with New York, so it's not like the sample with us was the only quality shooting from there, either.

Obviously, that means he's limited in terms of how much volume he can support and because he will rely heavily on others to set him up, but it IS a relevant element of his game.

There's no real route for him to get to that TS%. Ft shooting is weak and he's a below average 3pt shooter too. This is why I believe he's an addition by subtraction player.

Again, this is wrong. If we don't ask him to overextend himself in volume, there's a very clear blueprint to get him to between 58-60%. Shooting inside 10 feet and taking corner threes, with as little as possible in the middle. At 12-14 FGA/g, that should be very manageable for him with the roster as we have it next year, assuming reasonable health for Quick and BI.

[tsherkin]

It is you that is misunderstanding what I said. I didn't say anything about changing how we are using RJ, I said that he may get meaningful efficiency improvements from simply playing on a team that isn't trying to lose, which is not something I see many people 'banging the gong' on in this thread or in others.

Right, but again, that's wrong. Because I have specifically been saying that merely the contextual changes should be able to help him a little by opening up the lanes for him as well. I am hopeful we will ALSO lower his volume and alter his usage, but we have been AGREEING that the shift in the roster next year will benefit him

With regards to SGA, I said clearly in my second post that I wasn't comparing RJ to SGA, so why are you now comparing them in your response to me? I highlighted SGA as an example of someone that had his efficiency improve significantly when he started playing with a competitive team.

Right, but it's a useless example. They're very different players, so the skillset which SGA was bringing to the table was already forecasting improvement to a degree which RJ simply cannot match, and much earlier in his career. Other than their rough size, there's very little to compare between the two in terms of potential efficiency, which is why I remarked.

[deck]

Right, but again, that's wrong. Because I have specifically been saying that merely the contextual changes should be able to help him a little by opening up the lanes for him as well. I am hopeful we will ALSO lower his volume and alter his usage, but we have been AGREEING that the shift in the roster next year will benefit him

Actually, you have specifically said in the past that you don't think playing on a tanking team should change a players personal efficiency (you said it in the context of Barnes). And again, while I agree that changing RJ's role may affect his efficiency, that is not the point I was making in my post. I very clearly stated that just playing on a team that is trying to win will affect his efficiency. I hold to that position even if Ingram was not added to the roster. So no. You are just wrong here with regards to your assertion that we are saying the same thing. We are not.

Right, but it's a useless example. They're very different players, so the skillset which SGA was bringing to the table was already forecasting improvement to a degree which RJ simply cannot match, and much earlier in his career. Other than their rough size, there's very little to compare between the two in terms of potential efficiency, which is why I remarked.

So it is your position that a player needs to be of SGA's calibre to have playing for a team that is trying to win to have an effect on their personal stats? I think you are also wrong in this assertion. Whether SGA and RJ are similar players is irrelevant for the point I was making.

You keep doubling down here instead of just admitting that your response to my original post was not correct.

[Basketball_Jones]

RJ’s a really polarizing player it seems. I don’t quite understand it as I feel he’s been much better than expected from the Knicks where he was considerably pretty bad. If anything I’m pretty neutral, not bullish on keeping or trading him. We don’t have any home run picks waiting to take his spot at this time, but I’m not adverse to trading him either.

[JB7]

RJ’s a really polarizing player it seems. I don’t quite understand it as I feel he’s been much better than expected from the Knicks where he was considerably pretty bad. If anything I’m pretty neutral, not bullish on keeping or trading him. We don’t have any home run picks waiting to take his spot at this time, but I’m not adverse to trading him either.

It really comes down to perception/expectation of his role. In New York, as the 3rd pick overall, which was the highest the Knicks had picked in a long time, expectations were probably he would be a #1 or #2 option on the team. In Toronto, paid as the #4 option, and treated like a #3 or #4 option, the expectations of his game are more aligned with his actual role.

I think he provides a dynamic the team was missing, in that while he might not be the most efficient scorer, he is a guy that can get a bucket, and is not afraid of the big moments. I think he is worth more to the Raps, then whatever they could get in a trade for him.

[Raps in 4]

RJ’s a really polarizing player it seems. I don’t quite understand it as I feel he’s been much better than expected from the Knicks where he was considerably pretty bad. If anything I’m pretty neutral, not bullish on keeping or trading him. We don’t have any home run picks waiting to take his spot at this time, but I’m not adverse to trading him either.

He was garbage last year. The only good stretch of basketball he played in his entire career was the half season after the trade from NYK.

He's not a piece you build around, which is why most people treat him as disposable.

Maybe we can get him playing like 2024 again next year with a healthy team (where his role is reduced to just slashing basically). But even then, he's still a low impact player, he's just not a net negative. There is also the question of where does he fit on this roster with a bunch of other non-shooters?

[Basketball_Jones]

RJ’s a really polarizing player it seems. I don’t quite understand it as I feel he’s been much better than expected from the Knicks where he was considerably pretty bad. If anything I’m pretty neutral, not bullish on keeping or trading him. We don’t have any home run picks waiting to take his spot at this time, but I’m not adverse to trading him either.

He was garbage last year. The only good stretch of basketball he played in his entire career was the half season after the trade from NYK.

He's not a piece you build around, which is why most people treat him as disposable.

Maybe we can get him playing like 2024 again next year with a healthy team (where his role is reduced to just slashing basically). But even then, he's still a low impact player, he's just not a net negative. There is also the question of where does he fit on this roster with a bunch of other non-shooters?

I don’t think he was garbage but yeah that short stretch with the knicks was clearly a mirage lol. I agree with the concerns but it’s probably the state of the team right now being what it is that makes me not really care so much what happens with him this moment and focusing more on the positive.

[Raps in 4]

RJ’s a really polarizing player it seems. I don’t quite understand it as I feel he’s been much better than expected from the Knicks where he was considerably pretty bad. If anything I’m pretty neutral, not bullish on keeping or trading him. We don’t have any home run picks waiting to take his spot at this time, but I’m not adverse to trading him either.

He was garbage last year. The only good stretch of basketball he played in his entire career was the half season after the trade from NYK.

He's not a piece you build around, which is why most people treat him as disposable.

Maybe we can get him playing like 2024 again next year with a healthy team (where his role is reduced to just slashing basically). But even then, he's still a low impact player, he's just not a net negative. There is also the question of where does he fit on this roster with a bunch of other non-shooters?

I don’t think he was garbage but yeah that short stretch with the knicks was clearly a mirage lol. I agree with the concerns but it’s probably the state of the team right now being what it is that makes me not really care so much what happens with him this moment and focusing more on the positive.

Totally. I don't care if we move him or keep him either. He isn't holding the team back from greatness, nor does he have any real trade value that we're losing out on by not trading him. Whether we keep him or trade him makes no difference.

[Psubs]

RJ’s a really polarizing player it seems. I don’t quite understand it as I feel he’s been much better than expected from the Knicks where he was considerably pretty bad. If anything I’m pretty neutral, not bullish on keeping or trading him. We don’t have any home run picks waiting to take his spot at this time, but I’m not adverse to trading him either.

He's like the next generation Derozan. He's taking up cap space.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

He was garbage last year. The only good stretch of basketball he played in his entire career was the half season after the trade from NYK.

He's not a piece you build around, which is why most people treat him as disposable.

Maybe we can get him playing like 2024 again next year with a healthy team (where his role is reduced to just slashing basically). But even then, he's still a low impact player, he's just not a net negative. There is also the question of where does he fit on this roster with a bunch of other non-shooters?

I don’t think he was garbage but yeah that short stretch with the knicks was clearly a mirage lol. I agree with the concerns but it’s probably the state of the team right now being what it is that makes me not really care so much what happens with him this moment and focusing more on the positive.

Totally. I don't care if we move him or keep him either. He isn't holding the team back from greatness, nor does he have any real trade value that we're losing out on by not trading him. Whether we keep him or trade him makes no difference.

If he’s getting anything north of 25 min- there’s a real cost in the opportunity for guys like Gradey, Ochai, and JaKobe to get playing time.

[DreamTeam09]

I don’t think he was garbage but yeah that short stretch with the knicks was clearly a mirage lol. I agree with the concerns but it’s probably the state of the team right now being what it is that makes me not really care so much what happens with him this moment and focusing more on the positive.

Totally. I don't care if we move him or keep him either. He isn't holding the team back from greatness, nor does he have any real trade value that we're losing out on by not trading him. Whether we keep him or trade him makes no difference.

If he’s getting anything north of 25 min- there’s a real cost in the opportunity for guys like Gradey, Ochai, and JaKobe to get playing time.

That would be a Gradey/Ochai/Walter problem not a Toronto Raptor problem. All 3 are under contract & will be RFAs after their contracts. Those guys have to carve out their own PT by playing and playing well
Even if RJ gets traded, it's likely for another starter regardless,

[Basketball_Jones]

Yeah those guys are going to have to make their case before I can say move RJ so we play them more. Contract wise though, I agree RJ is more ideal to move then any of them.

[TGM]

Kings been rumoured to move Monk and Devin Carter.

An interesting deal could be RJ for Monk and Carter.

Gives us a bit more size and depth at the 1 and more consistent FT and 3PT shooting.

We would probably waive Lawson or something. This also puts us a few million below the tax line.

With the addition of Ingram the raps have enough offensive power and can play a line up of IQ, Ochai, Ingram, Barnes Jakob and a bench of Shead, Monk, Dick, CMB and Sandro.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

Yeah those guys are going to have to make their case before I can say move RJ so we play them more. Contract wise though, I agree RJ is more ideal to move then any of them.

Those guys and CMB are the reason we went through the last few years of pain. It wasn’t for the guys that got us in the lottery.

I’m totally for making them earn a role, but if they don’t get a chance, what did we tank for?

[UnbelievablyRAW]

I think its kinda unfair how RJ's production is looked at when a lot of the time he was playing with rookies and g-leaguers and given grenades on offence to try to create with no spacing. It was RJ and Dick trying to solo teams with IQ and Barnes in and out of the lineup. Or it would be RJ and Barnes and Barnes would just defer to RJ and leave him on an island to create out of nothing.

The fact that RJ can have the same level of offensive efficiency as someone like Franz Wagner (maxed out, highly touted) yet gets crapped on is funny. Franz is for sure the better defender and is physically larger, but if I can get Franz scoring and better passing with my 4th option I'm pretty satisfied. Pretty sure Franz is making a lot more than RJ is and will be as well.

RJ only played 16 games with IQ and Scottie all suited up in the same game all season last year. He was forced to play above his intended role and now gets crapped on for being forced to do it because everyone was injured around him. Remember how amazing he looked right before we traded Pascal 2 years ago?

In those 7 games he played with IQ/Scottie/Pascal, he averaged 19/7/3 on 55/39/76 (64%TS). With this new version that damn near doubled his AST% this past year, I think we can get similar offensive efficiency and more assists as well. If he can stay in the mid 70s as a FT shooter, that TS% will be spooky.

His path to becoming a clear positive player is clear and not unobtainable. Wouldn't be shocked one bit if by the deadline we have teams trying to trade FOR him