Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[Randle McMurphy]

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The best outfielder in baseball.

[brwnman]

Let's not forget that in the same game (the very next inning), the best outfielder in the game allowed 3 runs to score.

His weak cut-off throw to Bichette allowed a run to score, which forced Heineman to get the runner at 3rd and that runner scored. Then the last runner also scored on the following play. Even an average throw to Bo gets the out at home and the Jays get out of the inning. Instead 3 runs allowed, but you won't see that on DRS!

[Randle McMurphy]

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Not only are Varsho’s power results excellent, but they are also supported by underlying numbers that suggest that they aren’t flukey. His xHR (14.5) closely mirrors his actual total (15), and his xSLG (.538) isn’t far off his .574 SLG.

He also set a new career-high in max exit velocity (113.9 m.p.h.) on this home run, which puts him in the top 10 per cent of all hitters.

Meanwhile, his average exit velocity (90.4 m.p.h.) is much higher than his previous career-best (87.7 m.p.h.).

Even a seemingly modest boost makes a huge difference for Varsho’s offence because he elevates the ball more than the vast majority of players. Since joining the Blue Jays, his air rate (flyballs, line drives and popups) ranks 20th among 224 qualified hitters. Balls in the air with a little more behind them can very easily turn into extra-base hits or home runs instead of finding outfielders’ gloves.

A comparison between Varsho’s air balls in 2023 and 2024 vs. 2025 outlines that clearly. His batted balls in the air are similar when it comes to directionality and launch angle, but the exit velocity boost leads to superior results.

Unsurprisingly, putting the ball in the air at the same rate and in the same direction as usual, but hitting it with more authority, has led to a massive surge in home runs per flyball for Varsho.

While this is probably unsustainable to some degree, it's backed by a legitimate increase in batted ball quality, which in turn has a bat speed jump behind it.

Varsho has gone from a player who was above-average in that area earlier in his Blue Jays career to one of the league’s best when it comes to delivering lightning-quick, damage-inducing swings:

The relationship between bat speed and power isn’t always cut and dry, but Varsho simplifies it.

He’s never had difficulty avoiding groundballs or pulling his flyballs to maximize their home run potential. His approach has always been geared to make the most of his raw power, but in past seasons, that raw power has been middling — and only taken him so far.

This year, he’s getting off harder swings, generating better contact, and making that happen without seriously compromising his existing strengths. It’s a remarkable contact-quality turnaround considering just three qualified hitters had a lower xwOBA on contact than Varsho’s .304 last year. Now he’s up to .478 by that metric, 12th among major leaguers with at least 150 plate appearances.

What happens when the best defensive outfielder in baseball also becomes one of the best power hitters in the game? We’re seeing it in MVP Varsho this year.

[Harry Palmer]

Let's not forget that in the same game (the very next inning), the best outfielder in the game allowed 3 runs to score.

His weak cut-off throw to Bichette allowed a run to score, which forced Heineman to get the runner at 3rd and that runner scored. Then the last runner also scored on the following play. Even an average throw to Bo gets the out at home and the Jays get out of the inning. Instead 3 runs allowed, but you won't see that on DRS!

I do agree he’s made more mistakes lately than I’m used to seeing; he crucially bobbled a grounder last week that cost us a big run, too. But in general he’s almost savant-like with his angles and jumps. His arm is never going to be a big strength, but you can’t have everything. Put it this way; if we’re complaining about Varsho’s defence, things must be going pretty good.

[Mehar]

Let's not forget that in the same game (the very next inning), the best outfielder in the game allowed 3 runs to score.

His weak cut-off throw to Bichette allowed a run to score, which forced Heineman to get the runner at 3rd and that runner scored. Then the last runner also scored on the following play. Even an average throw to Bo gets the out at home and the Jays get out of the inning. Instead 3 runs allowed, but you won't see that on DRS!

I do agree he’s made more mistakes lately than I’m used to seeing; he crucially bobbled a grounder last week that cost us a big run, too. But in general he’s almost savant-like with his angles and jumps. His arm is never going to be a big strength, but you can’t have everything. Put it this way; if we’re complaining about Varsho’s defence, things must be going pretty good.

In fairness to Varsho, the guy had shoulder surgery in the off-season and it is noticeable now with his poor throws from the outfield. Hopefully his arm is much better in 2026 after another off-season of strengthening it.

However, who knows if his arm will ever improve to even how it was before the surgery. That is why the Jays should wait until after the 2026 season to consider offering him a long-term deal, based on how he performs overall (if he can stay healthy also); after observing him over a 162 Game Season next year.

[bartron_44]

Omg, he never had a great arm. That wasnt what made him valuable. He has finally become the hitter we all wanted him to be, is still running through walls with a bad shoulder, and you are complaining about him?

The only complaint anyone should have is how expensive he is going to be to retain if this is “ the new Varsho” . He is actually hitting well enough that they could play him in LF if they ever have someone better defensively in CF.

[brwnman]

There's a different between a below average arm and worst arm in ML history for a starting CF in the modern era. His arm cost the Jays 6 runs in the last 10 games before the injury.

[brwnman]

Last 11 Games for MVP Varsho:
.143/.184/.371 with a 45 wRC+

[brwnman]

That awkward moment when you realize that Moreno's per game fWAR is higher than Varsho's

[Mehar]

That awkward moment when you realize that Moreno's per game fWAR is higher than Varsho's

Credit to Moreno. Hitting very well after coming back from the DL on August 22nd.

[Randle McMurphy]

No surprise that the team is collapsing with Varsho injured again.

Hurry back MVP.

[brwnman]

No surprise the Jays collapse started with Varsho’s return from injury. Jays were 8-10 (against ML caliber teams) when Varsho started after his most recent return.

[Randle McMurphy]

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[brwnman]

A massive reminder that prospects are in fact, prospects, and not guarantees.

I was high on Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips. In hindsight, I'd take Bartolo Colon 10 out of 10 times. #LightsUpLetsGo

[johanliebert]

No surprise the Jays collapse started with Varsho’s return from injury. Jays were 8-10 (against ML caliber teams) when Varsho started after his most recent return.

Whats their record since his return?

[brwnman]

No surprise the Jays collapse started with Varsho’s return from injury. Jays were 8-10 (against ML caliber teams) when Varsho started after his most recent return.

Whats their record since his return?

8-11 now when he starts against non-Colorado teams.

[brwnman]

Jays were 64-46 when he returned. In games that Varsho starts, Jays are 8-11.

5-2 when he doesn't start.

And one of those 2 losses was a collapse after he entered the game; Hoffman had a full blown meltdown seeing him in CF.

[Mehar]

Jays were 64-46 when he returned. In games that Varsho starts, Jays are 8-11.

5-2 when he doesn't start.

And one of those 2 losses was a collapse after he entered the game; Hoffman had a full blown meltdown seeing him in CF.

Cannot call Varsho the MVP, when the team plays much better without him. Straw is as good defensively as Varsho, and has a better arm than him also. That is why I thought it made sense to trade Varsho just before the deadline for another high leverage bullpen arm (the same suggestion Jeff Blair made).

Scott Boras will be asking the moon in contract negotiations as well, since Varsho will be a free agent after next year. Varsho does provide power, but I would much rather had another high leverage reliever instead for this stretch run. That is more true now with how awful this bullpen has been. Defensively, since you have Myles Straw, it made trading Varsho easier also. Opportunity missed by this front office.

[PushDaRock]

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The best outfielder in baseball.

Varsho > Judge

[PushDaRock]

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The best outfielder in baseball.

Varsho > Judge