Bulls Offering Josh Giddey $88M Over Four Years

[JJ_PR]

The Chicago Bulls initial offer to restricted free agent Josh Giddey was reportedly $80 million over four seasons. The Bulls have upped that offer to $88 million over four years, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks. That's still off from what Giddey has been looking for on a new contract.

Giddey has reportedly been looking for a contract that averages closer to $30 million per season. The 22-year-old guard has also been looking at five-year deals.

Giddey has until October 1 to sign his $11.1 million qualifying offer. After that, Giddey would be subject an extension of the qualifying offer from the Bulls, or to agree to another form of contract. If Giddey signs the qualifying offer, he'll get a one-year no-trade clause, because he would lose his Bird rights if traded.

[jowglenn]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

[JJ_PR]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

I agree, and even more so a player like Giddey who doesn't have a big sample size of playing at a high level. He should take the $88 million without thinking about it.

[HotelVitale]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

There are a few examples, but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets. And many more of guy holding out and getting paid.

Agents seem to know what they're doing, generally. Sometimes guys miscalculate or things end up not going to plan but there's generally solid reasoning behind decisions like this.

[meekrab]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

There are a few examples, but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets. And many more of guy holding out and getting paid.

Agents seem to know what they're doing, generally. Sometimes guys miscalculate or things end up not going to plan but there's generally solid reasoning behind decisions like this.

The math doesn't really support taking the QO, unless Giddey and his agent think he's got very high odds to be a near-max guy next offseason, which is more or less insane.

[JJ_PR]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

There are a few examples, but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets. And many more of guy holding out and getting paid.

Agents seem to know what they're doing, generally. Sometimes guys miscalculate or things end up not going to plan but there's generally solid reasoning behind decisions like this.

I just don't think there is much upside to taking the QO. At best, he'll get the same offer he's getting right now. It would be reckless to turn it down.

[jowglenn]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets.

Just curious - who?

[zimpy27]

He should take 66m/3 with a PO or he should take QO.


He's improved every year, he's not stopping now. Still very young. He's got the potential to be an All-NBA player.

[brackdan70]

4/88 seems fair….i don’t know that holding out would work out well for him.

[brackdan70]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets.

Just curious - who?

I am sure it has worked out for some…but no one comes to mind

[Bologna Smasher]

He should take 66m/3 with a PO or he should take QO.


He's improved every year, he's not stopping now. Still very young. He's got the potential to be an All-NBA player.

This is what I was thinking. You can debate whether he's worth 30M a year or not right now, but as long as stays on his currently trajectory, he will be very soon.

I think if he does tell the Bulls he's going to take the qualifying offer, the Bulls will increase their offer at the last minute.

[CS707]

At his age, signing that contract is still betting on himself. Put the $88m in the bank and cash in again in 4 years if you're that confident.

[zimpy27]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

I thought it was crazy that Noel and Schroeder got those offers to begin with, let alone turn them down.

Giddey is different though, he's improving every year and he's very young.

He probably averages a triple double for a season soon with 20+ PPG. He'll be considered similar level to Cade in a season or so IMO.

[PushDaRock]

The question is if Giddey actually is the player he was post AS Break last season. Averaging almost 21.7 ppg 10.7 rpg and 9.3 apg on amazing efficiency is easily a max player and likely an All-NBA guy. Even a slight decline of that should get him a massive pay day, so I can see why he doesn't want to just accept the deal out there. Some sort of bridge 2/3 year deal with player options probably makes the most sense IMO.

[HotelVitale]

To be clear I'm not arguing it's a good move for Giddey. I'm just saying that people a lot of times project their own money management style into these conversations, and also that the disastrous outcomes tend to stick way way more with sports fans (cuz schadenfreude? i don't know). Agents aren't perfect but I think we generally see them tending to win more than lose, right? And Giddey isn't Nerlens Noel so we don't have to treat him like he is.

but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets.

Just curious - who?

I am sure it has worked out for some…but no one comes to mind

Ben Gordon, Spencer Hawes, Charlie Villanueva all come to mind. Not many guys who have legit value end up taking the QO so not many examples for any outcome.

The math doesn't really support taking the QO, unless Giddey and his agent think he's got very high odds to be a near-max guy next offseason, which is more or less insane.

Think his QO is like $13m, and a 4/88 would probably start at around $17-18m. It's a bet on himself but more on him proving he's that type of $30m guy he's been saying he is. And we know he can produce in the NBA for sure for sure, so it's pretty unlikely he loses completely in this type of bet. Downside is more likely that he has a crap year AND gets unlucky in FA and ends up not getting 3 years guaranteed.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

He would be an absolute fool to take the QO. We’ve seen it before - Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroeder; when the bag is presented you gotta TAKE IT. It might not be there at all next time

There are a few examples, but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets. And many more of guy holding out and getting paid.

Agents seem to know what they're doing, generally. Sometimes guys miscalculate or things end up not going to plan but there's generally solid reasoning behind decisions like this.

The math doesn't really support taking the QO, unless Giddey and his agent think he's got very high odds to be a near-max guy next offseason, which is more or less insane.

if confirms his post asg game he'll be a 140m guy

[playoffs]

To be clear I'm not arguing it's a good move for Giddey. I'm just saying that people a lot of times project their own money management style into these conversations, and also that the disastrous outcomes tend to stick way way more with sports fans (cuz schadenfreude? i don't know). Agents aren't perfect but I think we generally see them tending to win more than lose, right? And Giddey isn't Nerlens Noel so we don't have to treat him like he is.

Just curious - who?

I am sure it has worked out for some…but no one comes to mind

Ben Gordon, Spencer Hawes, Charlie Villanueva all come to mind. Not many guys who have legit value end up taking the QO so not many examples for any outcome.

Charlie Vilanueva was never extended a QO. The Bucks just released him. Spencer Hawes signed a 2-year $13m deal after taking the $4m QO, not a huge jackpot by NBA standards. Ben Gordon is the only one out of the three you mentioned that successfully played the QO card.

I think it rarely makes sense to sign the QO, unless you know the team really NEEDS you for a playoff run and will feature you despite knowing you are good as gone, and even then you are risking losing a lot of value due to injury or a down year.

Personally, I think all of Giddey, Kuminga, Cam Thomas, and Grimes, are in a very weak position.

Cam Thomas made a mistake imo signing the QO because the Nets have zero incentive to play him over the rookies that they need to develop, and there is no chance he gets anywhere close to the contract he wants in unrestricted free agency next year.

For Giddey, it COULD work out, since the Bulls love to make runs at the play-in and they will need him for that, but again it's a gamble that he will not get injured or have a down year.

For Grimes it would be a huge gamble. The only way he gets a significant role on a QO contract is if Embiid and PG are healthy and playing well and Philly is actually contending, which is very unlikely. Otherwise, they will play Edgecomb, Oubre, and McCain ahead of him and he will not be a candidate for a big contract next summer.

For Kum Buckets, GS does need him, but unless he changes his style of play like they've been asking him to do the last few years and fit in better, Kerr will keep him glued to the bench.

In other words, if you're a RFA and no team in the league is trying to pry you away, that's a sign that your value isn't as high as you think it is and that you should probably take the money that's on the table.

[brackdan70]

He should take 66m/3 with a PO or he should take QO.


He's improved every year, he's not stopping now. Still very young. He's got the potential to be an All-NBA player.

That’s around a top 50 contract in the league. Is he….will he be a top 50 player?

[GusT15]

He should take 66m/3 with a PO or he should take QO.


He's improved every year, he's not stopping now. Still very young. He's got the potential to be an All-NBA player.

That’s around a top 50 contract in the league. Is he….will he be a top 50 player?

Actually at 22m per year,it's top80.
Top50 ends with Immanuel Quickley at 32.5m per year.

[PRguy23]

but there are also examples of guy winning their QO bets.

Just curious - who?

I am sure it has worked out for some…but no one comes to mind

Jimmy Butler bulls took a qo balled out and for his 1st max.