Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #5-#6 Spots

[iggymcfrack]

In 2019, Kawhi was load-managed a lot and joined a 56-win team. I get giving it to him over 2017, even though he was clearly better in 2017, but won in 2019, but frankly, I don't think he was as good as Kobe or Dirk in comparison when looking at 2019.

2017 Kawhi is more impressive than 2019, and they aren't particularly close.

Yeah, 2019 Kawhi feels like probably the lowest one of that list for me, though I’m not 100% certain on that. I agree he was probably a better player in 2017, but I don’t think I can vote for a season in a greatest peaks list if the guy had a playoff-ending injury. I know it’s random and wasn’t his fault, but what happened is what happened and it’s just not an overly great year in those circumstances IMO, regardless of what came before it or what we think might’ve been in the absence of a freak injury.

2019 is quite clearly Kawhi's weakest season of his best seasons. His 2020 and 2017 seasons eclipse his 2019 season by a large amount.

I know you value RAPTOR, so here is the RAPTOR for Kawhi's seasons.

2021: 7.8
2020: 9.6
2019: 6.6
2017: 9.3
2016: 9.8

Kawhi played in just 60 games in 2019. He wouldn't have even qualified for All-NBA this year! I think you are doing yourself a disservice considering 2019 Kawhi given how much better he was in the surrounding seasons.

2017 is clearly Kawhi’s peak if you don’t ding him for the postseason injury. It’s just a question of how much that hurts him in your evaluation. To me, if the seasons are comparable, you have to go with the one where the guy finishes it out.

In 2019, I feel like Kawhi (smartly) limited his effort in the regular season to save himself for what really mattered. It really feels like he did whatever was necessary to lead his team to a title. Struggling to score against the Sixers? No problem, Kawhi will put up 35/10/4 on .634 TS% with one of the greatest buzzer beaters of all-time. Can’t stop Giannis in the ECF? Kawhi will lock him down and hold him to 30% from the field as his primary matchup to erase an 0-2 deficit. His on/off was +16.7 in the 2019 playoffs compared to -0.6 in the 2016 second round exit. I don’t see a serious case that any year other than 2017 or 2019 is Kawhi’s peak.

[Cavsfansince84]

I honestly feel it's far too early to actually have 2025 Shai on the ballot. He had a nice RS but in the PS, it left much to be desired. Volume went down, efficiency nosedived, creation went down, turnovers went up. He went from prime MJ level in the RS to well below prime Kobe in the PS. Don't get me wrong. It's still a good peak. It will start to get consideration around the #10 spot due to how great the RS is but now is far too early when you've got way better playoff performers left to choose.

Honestly, I think Shai's 2025 playoff run is getting way too much criticism. Let's just compare gamescore's for each series for Shai in 2025 vs Kobe in 08(often considered his peak season).

20.0
25.6
24.6
21.8

25.2
25.4
20.7
16.4

Which pretty much takes into account pace and whatnot. Then factoring in that defensively its prob about a wash or in Shai's favor I don't think either guy looks that much better than the other and yes we can factor in things like competition but Shai was also good enough to lead Okc back from the 2-1 deficit to Den and had a strong series when they crushed Minn. So at the end of the day he got the job done and while not a great run it was still mvp worthy imo. Calling it well below prime Kobe to me is semi ridiculous. He was about as good as peak Kobe.

[lessthanjake]

I’m pretty set on three of my four votes this time being 2001 Shaq, 2006 Wade, and 2004 Garnett (in that order). The last spot is pretty up in the air. I’m inclined to give it to one of 2009 Kobe, 2011 Dirk, 2019 Kawhi, 2021 Giannis, or 2025 SGA. I would be really interested to see what other people have to say on those years, since I really don’t have a strong lean in any particular direction there.

To follow up on my above post briefly, I’d say that 2009 Kobe, 2011 Dirk, 2019 Kawhi, 2021 Giannis, and 2025 SGA are all pretty similar, in the sense of being a year where the guy was a top-tier player but probably not the best player in the world, and led his team to a title while playing well in the playoffs (the latter qualification being why 2024 Tatum is not listed).

I have some concerns with all of them though, and I’ll list some of those concerns below. These aren’t super well-thought-out concerns, so I’m hoping others can tell me how much they think I should or shouldn’t be concerned by these things:

- 2009 Kobe: My biggest concern here is just that impact data in general just isn’t that high on Kobe. It was higher on him in this late 2000s era than in other timeframes, but it was still low for someone who might be on the ballot at this point.

- 2011 Dirk: I’m not super inspired by Dirk’s performance in the Finals, and I feel like the story of those Finals was more LeBron’s complete collapse, rather than Dirk actually having a great series. He’d been extremely good in the prior two rounds though, against teams that were genuinely dangerous, so this is arguably a nitpick. Finals performance does matter a lot (biggest stage, often most difficult opponent, etc.), though, and I don’t think the Mavs win that series with Dirk’s performance if LeBron even plays somewhere in the ballpark of his normal level.

- 2019 Kawhi: This was his least good regular season in that era and he did miss a lot of games in the regular season, which has to matter at least somewhat.

- 2021 Giannis: This was perhaps his least good regular season in his prime (though less of a fall off from the best than 2019 is for Kawhi). Perhaps more importantly, Giannis being injured in the conference finals is a serious issue for me. He came back and was incredible in the Finals, so I see this as being very different from the playoff-ending injuries that disqualify a year like 2017 Kawhi. But I think he was extremely fortunate that his team was facing a really weak conference finals opponent such that his team could win the last two games of the series without him. I will note that I think the leverage of each playoff series goes up dramatically, since, for a high-seeded team, the difficulty of the series goes up a huge amount as you get further into the playoffs, so I see this as a bigger issue than something like Steph missing games in the 2016 and 2018 playoffs (though neither of those years were the ones that made my ballot for him in the last couple threads). Those situations are still negatives, but it’s much more plausible for a guy’s genuinely good team to do fine without him in in the first round or even maybe the second round, but you’d generally expect a collapse in the conference finals or finals without a team’s best player. Luckily for Giannis, that didn’t happen, but it just feels really lucky to me that it didn’t.

- 2025 SGA: The biggest concern I have here is the playoff performance. He was still good in the playoffs, but I think these other guys were all better in the playoffs than he was.

[Djoker]

I honestly feel it's far too early to actually have 2025 Shai on the ballot. He had a nice RS but in the PS, it left much to be desired. Volume went down, efficiency nosedived, creation went down, turnovers went up. He went from prime MJ level in the RS to well below prime Kobe in the PS. Don't get me wrong. It's still a good peak. It will start to get consideration around the #10 spot due to how great the RS is but now is far too early when you've got way better playoff performers left to choose.

Honestly, I think Shai's 2025 playoff run is getting way too much criticism. Let's just compare gamescore's for each series for Shai in 2025 vs Kobe in 08(often considered his peak season).

20.0
25.6
24.6
21.8

25.2
25.4
20.7
16.4

Which pretty much takes into account pace and whatnot. Then factoring in that defensively its prob about a wash or in Shai's favor I don't think either guy looks that much better than the other and yes we can factor in things like competition but Shai was also good enough to lead Okc back from the 2-1 deficit to Den and had a strong series when they crushed Minn. So at the end of the day he got the job done and while not a great run it was still mvp worthy imo. Calling it well below prime Kobe to me is semi ridiculous. He was about as good as peak Kobe.

Gamescore is not telling the whole story.

The average DRtg of 2008 Kobe's opponents was 103.4 while the average DRtg of 2025 Shai's opponents was 113.7. That's just a massive discrepancy in the level of defense faced. The fact that their Gamescore was similar shows just how much more impressive Kobe's run was than Shai's.

Here are their adjusted numbers. I used 2009 Kobe because 2008 Kobe was harder to find but 2008 Kobe had a slightly higher efficiency even.

2009 Kobe - PS

31.9 IA Pts/75
+3.9 rTS
10.3 Box Creation
6.5 cTOV%
50.5 Offensive Load

2025 Shai - PS

29.7 IA Pts/75
+0.5 rTS
11.6 Box Creation
6.4 cTOV%
52.8 Offensive Load

Given the gap in scoring, I'd maintain that he was well below prime Kobe.

[Jaivl]

And the question here is about “greatest” peaks, which I don’t interpret as just a question of how good the player was in a vacuum, but rather to also include an element of how much success the player had that year and how significant they were to that success.

You keep saying that, but I don't see the word "greatest" anywhere on the OP.

[lessthanjake]

And the question here is about “greatest” peaks, which I don’t interpret as just a question of how good the player was in a vacuum, but rather to also include an element of how much success the player had that year and how significant they were to that success.

You keep saying that, but I don't see the word "greatest" anywhere on the OP.

It’s in the first two sentences…

“Welcome to the new iteration of the greatest peaks project with the new format! This time, we will rank the greatest 25 peaks of the last 25 seasons:”

[Cavsfansince84]

Gamescore is not telling the whole story.

The average DRtg of 2008 Kobe's opponents was 103.4 while the average DRtg of 2025 Shai's opponents was 113.7. That's just a massive discrepancy in the level of defense faced. The fact that their Gamescore was similar shows just how much more impressive Kobe's run was than Shai's.

Here are their adjusted numbers. I used 2009 Kobe because 2008 Kobe was harder to find but 2008 Kobe had a slightly higher efficiency even.

2009 Kobe - PS

31.9 IA Pts/75
+3.9 rTS
10.3 Box Creation
6.5 cTOV%
50.5 Offensive Load

2025 Shai - PS

29.7 IA Pts/75
+0.5 rTS
11.6 Box Creation
6.4 cTOV%
52.8 Offensive Load

Given the gap in scoring, I'd maintain that he was well below prime Kobe.

I'm not really trying to infer that gamescore is telling the whole story and I already mentioned that opponents faced can also be factored in. What I am refuting is this idea you put forth that he was well below prime Kobe. He wasn't. 08&09 are quite often put forth as peak Kobe and winning a ring always trumps not winning one. So you can't use those years of Kobe and act like that's his average prime season. That's disingenuous. Then you also have to factor in regular seasons on top of that. I think there's a very good case that can be made for Shai making ballots at this point. He is in the running to make the last spot on mine along with a couple other guys.

[jalengreen]

I honestly feel it's far too early to actually have 2025 Shai on the ballot. He had a nice RS but in the PS, it left much to be desired. Volume went down, efficiency nosedived, creation went down, turnovers went up. He went from prime MJ level in the RS to well below prime Kobe in the PS. Don't get me wrong. It's still a good peak. It will start to get consideration around the #10 spot due to how great the RS is but now is far too early when you've got way better playoff performers left to choose.

This feels harsh. You believe he had a prime MJ level RS for a 68 win, +12.7 SRS team - along with that, he produced a championship run where he was the best player in every meaningful series he played. But a top 8 peak of 2001-25 is "far too early" for him?

Surprising, is the regular season just not given much weight in your criteria? Or do you not actually view a "prime MJ level RS" that highly compared to the competition here?

[One_and_Done]

I honestly feel it's far too early to actually have 2025 Shai on the ballot. He had a nice RS but in the PS, it left much to be desired. Volume went down, efficiency nosedived, creation went down, turnovers went up. He went from prime MJ level in the RS to well below prime Kobe in the PS. Don't get me wrong. It's still a good peak. It will start to get consideration around the #10 spot due to how great the RS is but now is far too early when you've got way better playoff performers left to choose.

Honestly, I think Shai's 2025 playoff run is getting way too much criticism. Let's just compare gamescore's for each series for Shai in 2025 vs Kobe in 08(often considered his peak season).

20.0
25.6
24.6
21.8

25.2
25.4
20.7
16.4

Which pretty much takes into account pace and whatnot. Then factoring in that defensively its prob about a wash or in Shai's favor I don't think either guy looks that much better than the other and yes we can factor in things like competition but Shai was also good enough to lead Okc back from the 2-1 deficit to Den and had a strong series when they crushed Minn. So at the end of the day he got the job done and while not a great run it was still mvp worthy imo. Calling it well below prime Kobe to me is semi ridiculous. He was about as good as peak Kobe.

Yeh, Shai is being disrespected a little. His PS was a drop from his RS, but still a very good PS. It’s only bad when compared to himself. Here’s Shai v.s 09 Kobe, who was being advocated earlier:

SGA RS per 100: 46/7/9 on 637 TS%
SGA PS per 100: 39/7/9 on 574 TS%

Kobe RS per 100: 38/7/7 on 561 TS%
Kobe PS per 100: 39/7/7 on 564 TS%

That is a clear advantage for Shai. Then you factor in the results. Statistically the Thunder were one of, if not the, most dominant team in NBA history this year, with 68 wins and record level setting SRS and point differential. They cooled a little in the playoffs, but also Jalen Williams was not 100% and had to get about 40 injections to keep playing. Shai’s support cast was also hit by heavy injuries to their best players, and was even playing Jalen at the 5 for a while because so many of their big men were hurt. Kobe is a guy whose teams were 135-137 from 00-07 in games without Shaq. He was not a floor raiser.

Meanwhile, Kobe had the best support cast in the NBA in 09, the best big rotation, and a team that would have won 55+ games without him. Factor in that Shai did it in a much stronger NBA than Kobe played in, and I have a hard time seeing what possible argument Kobe would have. Shai is a better defender too!

[70sFan]

SGA RS per 100: 46/7/9 on 637 TS%
SGA PS per 100: 39/7/9 on 574 TS%

Kobe RS per 100: 38/7/7 on 561 TS%
Kobe PS per 100: 39/7/7 on 564 TS%

That is a clear advantage for Shai.

Can anybody tell me what do I miss? Considering the stats inflation in the last few years, Shai having similar per100 and TS% numbers to Kobe from 2009 is not good at all.

I'd still probably take Shai over Kobe in the list, but I am probably missing something here.

[jalengreen]

I think this board usually puts a lot of emphasis on team success, like via SRS, so it surprises me that people aren't higher on Shai honestly

As we all know, it's a 68 win team with a +12.7 SRS (the highest all-time). That's with their 3rd most impactful player by EPM and xRAPM playing just 32 games (54 and 57 for Caruso and Hartenstein respectively). I do think their SRS is inflated by being the best team ever at blowing out bad teams, but in any case, it was an all-time impressive regular season.

With Shai on-court in the 2024-25 regular season, OKC had a net rating of +16.9. For comparison. Steph's on-court rating on the greatest team in the history of basketball, the 2017 Warriors, was +17.1.

In 905 RS minutes with Shai on the court and Jalen Williams & Chet Holmgren off the court, OKC had a +24.97 net rating. Remove Caruso too and it's +27.33. These are comparable to the 2017 Warriors RS net rating with Steph, Draymond, Klay, and Durant all on the floor (+22.90).

This is all on a team where he bears a high offensive burden. His second leading scorer boasted league average efficiency in a very favorable situation, averaging 21.6 PPG on -0.3% rTS% (while being a great transition player, so he's probably a below average half-court scorer). Nonetheless, OKC had the 2nd best half court offense in the regular season behind the Cavaliers.

This all gets knocked down by the postseason, which is fair enough. Neither Shai nor OKC upheld their level of play or even came close to it. But, y'know, they still won the whole thing so let's not get carried away lol. IMO he outplayed the best player in the world in the second round and looked like the best player on the floor throughout the postseason (with the possible exception of the first round, but who really cares about that lol). He did in fact end up leading the league in postseason EPM, as a fun fact - admittedly with a relatively low +4.7, but still.

As for postseason adversity: Daigneault had a pretty disappointing postseason IMO, Jalen Williams had an injured wrist that needed surgery, and the team went on a postseason long shooting slump from 3. And Shai's worst series was easily the first round which, sure, hold it against him.. but realistically it was low leverage and doesn't matter that much.

Probably overindexing on his relative PS underperformance if we're saying that this is hardly worthy of ballot consideration

[One_and_Done]

SGA RS per 100: 46/7/9 on 637 TS%
SGA PS per 100: 39/7/9 on 574 TS%

Kobe RS per 100: 38/7/7 on 561 TS%
Kobe PS per 100: 39/7/7 on 564 TS%

That is a clear advantage for Shai.

Can anybody tell me what do I miss? Considering the stats inflation in the last few years, Shai having similar per100 and TS% numbers to Kobe from 2009 is not good at all.

I'd still probably take Shai over Kobe in the list, but I am probably missing something here.

I have explained my position on this before. I don't think Kobe would have been any more efficient today on balance, because of his play style. Shai is also doing it against tougher opponents.

[70sFan]

I honestly feel it's far too early to actually have 2025 Shai on the ballot. He had a nice RS but in the PS, it left much to be desired. Volume went down, efficiency nosedived, creation went down, turnovers went up. He went from prime MJ level in the RS to well below prime Kobe in the PS. Don't get me wrong. It's still a good peak. It will start to get consideration around the #10 spot due to how great the RS is but now is far too early when you've got way better playoff performers left to choose.

What do you mean by "far too early"? At what point would you consider him?

[70sFan]

SGA RS per 100: 46/7/9 on 637 TS%
SGA PS per 100: 39/7/9 on 574 TS%

Kobe RS per 100: 38/7/7 on 561 TS%
Kobe PS per 100: 39/7/7 on 564 TS%

That is a clear advantage for Shai.

Can anybody tell me what do I miss? Considering the stats inflation in the last few years, Shai having similar per100 and TS% numbers to Kobe from 2009 is not good at all.

I'd still probably take Shai over Kobe in the list, but I am probably missing something here.

I have explained my position on this before. I don't think Kobe would have been any more efficient today on balance, because of his play style. Shai is also doing it against tougher opponents.

He wouldn't need to be more efficient to be on the same level with Shai in the playoffs.

It's hard to sell the idea that the Nuggets and the Pacers are better defensively than what Kobe faced in 2008 and 2009 runs.

[One_and_Done]

Can anybody tell me what do I miss? Considering the stats inflation in the last few years, Shai having similar per100 and TS% numbers to Kobe from 2009 is not good at all.

I'd still probably take Shai over Kobe in the list, but I am probably missing something here.

I have explained my position on this before. I don't think Kobe would have been any more efficient today on balance, because of his play style. Shai is also doing it against tougher opponents.

He wouldn't need to be more efficient to be on the same level with Shai in the playoffs.

It's hard to sell the idea that the Nuggets and the Pacers are better defensively than what Kobe faced in 2008 and 2009 runs.

Don't just throw in 08 like that. We're talking about 09 as his supposed peak. Given how much more sophisticated defences tend to be today, I'd say Shai definitely faced better defences. But then it's only one side of the coin; because offenses are so much better, Shai is burning the candle at both ends. He has to exert alot more energy than Kobe does in 09, which makes his performance all the more impressive.

[70sFan]

I have explained my position on this before. I don't think Kobe would have been any more efficient today on balance, because of his play style. Shai is also doing it against tougher opponents.

He wouldn't need to be more efficient to be on the same level with Shai in the playoffs.

It's hard to sell the idea that the Nuggets and the Pacers are better defensively than what Kobe faced in 2008 and 2009 runs.

Don't just throw in 08 like that. We're talking about 09 as his supposed peak. Given how much more sophisticated defences tend to be today, I'd say Shai definitely faced better defences. But then it's only one side of the coin; because offenses are so much better, Shai is burning the candle at both ends. He has to exert alot more energy than Kobe does in 09, which makes his performance all the more impressive.

Why shouldn't I add 2008? This is Kobe's peak in my opinion and I will vote for 2008 when we reach the place where I have him.

What sophistication made it harder for Shai to score than Kobe?

I also wonder why you don't use the same criteria for Shaq vs Jokic comparison, even though Shaq peaked earlier and faced even less sophisticated defenses and offenses.

[Jaivl]

And the question here is about “greatest” peaks, which I don’t interpret as just a question of how good the player was in a vacuum, but rather to also include an element of how much success the player had that year and how significant they were to that success.

You keep saying that, but I don't see the word "greatest" anywhere on the OP.

It’s in the first two sentences…

“Welcome to the new iteration of the greatest peaks project with the new format! This time, we will rank the greatest 25 peaks of the last 25 seasons:”

Dude, I swear to god. I must have read the original post three times. I think my brain skimmed past the word every single time

[Top10alltime]

Even though I'd put KG over Jokic, it's close. They're similar levels of player, with different strengths and weaknesses. There were 2 guys who were in a class of their own (Lebron, then Duncan), and after that there were like 4 guys with a good case to be next.

KG is in the class of Duncan. Duncan on defense is similar to KG, because KG has everything on him except interior defense and roaming. Now, if you were an era-relative guy, I would understand KG below Duncan defensively, but you're a guy who evaluates players in a vacuum. So the only way to put Duncan over KG defensively, is by not watching games. (Which, is probably true of you).

Duncan has scoring, but KG has playmaking with excellent vision, able to fake out defender with his passing, etc. So it's probably a wash on offense. It's really tough for me to decide between the two, am still evaluating. (Think it is a wash for peak, prime, and career, used to lean Duncan clearly).

So, even though I'm not participating in the project, I'd say my top 10 (didn't decide later ones):
1. 2010 Bron
2. 2003 Duncan/2004 KG
3. 2004 KG/2003 Duncan
4. 2016 Steph
5. 2000 Shaq
6. 2023 Jokic
7. 2023 Embiid
8. 2025 Shai
9. 2017 Kawhi
10. 2009 Wade

Yeh I don't agree. Duncan is on another tier to KG. I have Duncan as the greatest defensive player of all-time, with a more useful offensive skillset that you can actually build a team around. But Duncan is in, so not going to get into it further.

You don't agree, yet you have no evidence (I've always seen this is the case). You can't disprove anything I said.

Also for the Giannis part, everyone here and maybe 08 Kobe is better than him for peaks.

[-Luke-]

Shaq and Garnett aren't in from the guys I considered for the first four spots, so they will be locks for my personal top 4 in this round.

It doesn't get easier. Wade, Shai, KD, Kobe, Giannis, Kawhi are the guys I will probably consider for the last two spots. Maybe Dirk as well. I have problems with defining his peak. His athletic peak was way earlier, but 2011 is the year where it all came together.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Yeah, 2019 Kawhi feels like probably the lowest one of that list for me, though I’m not 100% certain on that. I agree he was probably a better player in 2017, but I don’t think I can vote for a season in a greatest peaks list if the guy had a playoff-ending injury. I know it’s random and wasn’t his fault, but what happened is what happened and it’s just not an overly great year in those circumstances IMO, regardless of what came before it or what we think might’ve been in the absence of a freak injury.

2019 is quite clearly Kawhi's weakest season of his best seasons. His 2020 and 2017 seasons eclipse his 2019 season by a large amount.

I know you value RAPTOR, so here is the RAPTOR for Kawhi's seasons.

2021: 7.8
2020: 9.6
2019: 6.6
2017: 9.3
2016: 9.8

Kawhi played in just 60 games in 2019. He wouldn't have even qualified for All-NBA this year! I think you are doing yourself a disservice considering 2019 Kawhi given how much better he was in the surrounding seasons.

2017 is clearly Kawhi’s peak if you don’t ding him for the postseason injury. It’s just a question of how much that hurts him in your evaluation. To me, if the seasons are comparable, you have to go with the one where the guy finishes it out.

I agree, but I don't consider 2017 and 2019 comparable.

In 2019, I feel like Kawhi (smartly) limited his effort in the regular season to save himself for what really mattered. It really feels like he did whatever was necessary to lead his team to a title. Struggling to score against the Sixers? No problem, Kawhi will put up 35/10/4 on .634 TS% with one of the greatest buzzer beaters of all-time. Can’t stop Giannis in the ECF? Kawhi will lock him down and hold him to 30% from the field as his primary matchup to erase an 0-2 deficit. His on/off was +16.7 in the 2019 playoffs compared to -0.6 in the 2016 second round exit. I don’t see a serious case that any year other than 2017 or 2019 is Kawhi’s peak.

Kawhi had the luxury of saving himself in 2019, which he didn't in 2017, which makes 2017 all that more impressive.

You have a view of the glass half full, but what if we take a view with the glass half empty?

RE Sixers: The Raptors win by a lucky bounce, otherwise are eliminated.

RE Stoping Giannis: The Raptors only win because the Milwaukee Bucks player's can't make wide-open 3's.

Milwaukee lost the series [4-2] by a total of 1 MOV as Lopez/Middleton/Bledsoe/Brogdon/Hill/Mirotic shoot 26% from 3P on 177 3PA.

They win the series is Bledsoe shoots 20% from 3 (He shot 17% from 3P).

If you want to create narratives which aren't true, try picking a year further than 6 years ago